I think he's in with a real chance – he's even bigging up his chances on the next stages with more 'rolling' finishes

Imagine a British TDF winner!

Was talking the other day about the betting odds on him which have dropped from 110:1 at the start to about 25:1 now…

Still worth a punt then 😉

Might even get the £10 back I put on Lance 😆

(God I'm a Tour betting slut!)

I think he has a real chance of coming second based on his TT ability. I think Contador will be too strong on the climbs though and will retain the yellow.

Regardless I will still shout at the TV to help him out!!

Just a thouight: there will be many mountains but only one flat TT thus chances are very narrow. Although there will be only one mountain top finish. The race and course are really stupid.

mmmmm track boy to TDF winner and mountain stage person…. 😐
I'm a little concerned on how he changed his ability.

I've also heard (through the grapevine) that there will be no drug test results during the tour, to avoid the year on year media response and sponsor pull out problems.

of winning? none whatsoever
of 2nd or 3rd? decent. The Schlecks will come back at him hard over the next few days however.
of top 5? pretty much nailed-on barring a catastrophic day on Ventoux.

phildowling, yes i can see where you are coming from, but if you loose 7kg, almost a stone it does wonders for your power/weight ratio. He has probably lost some absolute power but goes up hill alot better.

I don't think he will win, but next year? If he can prove to himself that he has a chance, and has a team willing to ride for him, who knows. He has proved he can time trial, he has proved he can climb.

He has a massive power output, which was higher than just about anyone in the peleton.

Loosing 7kg while keeping almost all the power puts him around the same power to weight as the best climbers. Simple really. I wonder if his climbing ability has taken him a bit by surprise though, as I certainly never saw him as a world class climber.

I don't think he would be stupid enough to dope though. Just lots of hard work and a well thought out change of disapline.

I think a podium place is very likely (3rd or 2nd) if he can keep it together over the next few days in the mountains, then it's the individual TT, Wiggos natural hunting ground. Go Wiggo, Go !!

Mind you. Still some strong competition in the running.. Andy Schleck, Sastre etc. Gonna be a good run into Paris.

How do you lose 7kg whilst maintaining the same power output though? Its not like he had any excess fat this time last year anyway.

Interesting reading here;
http://www.pezcyclingnews.com/?pg=fullstory&id=7313&status=True&catname=Latest News

In reality, 2nd is the best that Wiggins can hope to get. Bertie's climbing like some sort of mountain goat. No way Wiggins can match that pace, and whatever he might gain on the TT, will be rubbed out over the other worldly slopes of the Ventoux.

But still, WOW!

finbar, wiggo almost certainly hasn't maintained the same power.

What he has done is loose some weight and loose some power, the trick is to loose as little power as possible for the maximum weight lose to maximise his power to weight ratio, the only thing that really matters.

of winning? none whatsoever

No chance at all of Contador having a silly crash?

For the betting men – you could have got really good odds against a top 3 finish for him a few days ago (25/1 IIRC). You missed out!

He said in one of the early tour interviews that he's lost a bit of power off the top end – so his anaerobic power would be down. He's probably concentrated on more of the long rides to maximise aerobic power and to help take the weight off.

I got a whole two quid on at 101/1… so I'm crossing fingers for Bertie having a little slip up in a fast stage run in (a la Leipheimer) 😉

he said after one stage I think the first mountain one that people would be saying he was doping but perhaps the fact he was sh1t hot and changed his training , lost some weight and trained hard helped.
Barring something extraordinary happening he cant win it this year but top 5 would be brilliant and top three is still possible.
Next year or year after who knows

none!

top5 tops, he's doing great though

Barring an accident for Contador I can't see him winning. He's looking like a possible podium contender though. This week will be hard for everyone, andI wouldn't be suprised to see some more changes in the top 5. The TT could sap a few of the GC contenders up Ventoux two days later. Contador is hardly a shabby TTer though. I think they'll take the TT "easier" (it's all relative) to cover the run in to Aubenas the day after with a Cat 2 before the finish, and give everything on Ventoux. Wiggo seemed up for that though in the post Verbier interview…just hope he doesn't blow spectacularly on Ventoux if he does.
Should be a good week!

Win no.Podium yes.

Barring an early exit, not a cats chance in hell of winning, Contador's too strong when it comes to the crunch. Top 3 is possible, though I suspect that some of the other contenders will start to show their strength this week.

Watching Wiggo kickin' it with the likes of Armstrong, Sastre etc and more than holding his own was a surreal experience…I think it'll take 'till the next tour before I get used to it!

Its a shame about the timing. Contador may well be unbeatable over the next few years. If Wiggo had been riding like this last year or on the year that Landis got disqualified he might have had a shout.

Given that the Contador/Armstrong duel, and in all likelihood the green and yellow jersey competitions are now settled (barring scandals, crashes and dodgy decisions etc), watching Wiggo duking it with the big guns will the big draw over the coming week…bring it on!!!!

Baring crashes i reckon 3rd or 4th. He won't beat contador on the climbs, but he'll be close on the time trial. Shame Rasmussan isn't riding this year, he's the only one who could match contradband in the mountains (and would of beat him in the 07 tour had he not been a very naughty boy)

We've never been given the lost weight line before have we oh no… what chances Bradley failing a dope test?

Wiggins has always been very anti-doping – i'm hoping that talk wasn't just smoke and mirrors. Apparently Lances power outputs up Verbier were very similar to what he was producing up mountain passes in the tours that he won, and Wiggins beat him up them, maybe he should of lost the weight a few years ago! Also shows that had contador been racing in Lances hayday it wouldn't of been much of a hayday at all.

Apparently Lances power outputs up Verbier were very similar to what he was producing up mountain passes in the tours that he won

he does look chuckier than before though and it seems to be the change of pace he's lost.

Astana and Saxobank are too strong and Garmin aren't strong enough in the mountains for Wiggins to win. Contandor, Armstrong, Kloeden and the Schleck's would just batter him into submission – and don't rule out Sastre over the next few days.

Wiggins position will depend on how much time he can make up on all of the above in the TT – bearing in mind that he has to measure his TT effort with the thought of Ventoux.

My podium prediction (for what it's worth) – Contador, Andy Schleck, Wiggins or Sastre.

Dropped porridge all over my new living room rug jumping up and down trying to urge Hayden (Roulston) on the other morning – bluddy TV shows the last 2hrs between 6am and 8am so have rescheduled all meetings for the last 2 weeks before 9.30am !
Wiggo looking good but Contadors move was outstanding, bring on today 🙂

How to go from ace track cyclist to riding in the pelaton in 1 easy step……………..

1)Cut down on protein intake for a few months. Do lots of long rides.

Result? All the muscles needed for sprinting on your arms/shoulders dissapear, leaving your legs. No drugs needed, all he was doing was shedding muscle which the body does very quickly on its own if its not being used.

'word' is that they're holding back drug tests to the end of the Tour – praying it's clean

What happened by Juan Maurizio Soler, incidentally? I don't think he started this year.

Not much chance of winning this year, but it would be wonderful if he did. All this Cavendish stuff and Wiggins quietly gets on with having an amazing 2 weeks in the race. Top 3 would be fantastic. I do think he's capable of winning and think he will get there in a couple of years. My money would be on 2011.

I don't think Contador is beatable, barring accidents.

Wiggins can certainly beat Armstrong (I think LA will go backwards a bit now, probably slide out of the top five), whether he can beat Schleck and Kloden, is another question.

Guess the podium: Contador, Schleck, Wiggins – Kloden to lose out because he'll be working for Contador and holding Lance's hand.

with the talk of a "Brit" team coming out soon, would Wiggins/Cavendish/Millar be available for it?

They have all said they are not going to change team – Cav has a fantastic team all pulling for him, and Wiggins and Millar feel very at home at Garmin.

no team changes as far as those three go. Was watching an interview with Dave Brailsford last night, I get the impression it won't be an all Brit team, more like experienced international riders with some young Brits, this has lead to rumors about Armstrong joining, but I doubt it.

I get so sick of all the people on here going on about doping. Wiggins has totally changed his physique, and riding style, there's never been a more anti doping rider than him, to the extent that he almost quit the road race circuit a few years ago due to all the doping. Its a sad state of affairs that when a rider does well he is instantly branded a doper, I hope that a couple of clean years should start to reverse this trend, but I doubt it

1st contador
the rest is any of schleck, wiggins, sastre, nibali, kloden

just too close to call

My guess:

contador, nibali, shleck, sastre, wiggins, kloden

nibali and wiggins make up time in the tt but nibali, schleck, and contador go clear of wiggins on ventoux. Kloden takes one for the team.

Brailsford was asked if he would like Contador on his team and replied "no" shame he wasnt pressed as to why. Wiggins is the most likely to move but I doubt it. Cav would have to be bonkers to move and Millar owns park of Slipstream so it would seem unlikely.

warton I don't understand why there would be a rumour of Armstrong joining the Sky team as he's going to have his own Livestrong team next year.

Brailsford was mentioning that negotiations were very well advanced with "a very well-know, prominent rider", but had fallen through when Brailsford got sight of the rider's biological passport, whereupon he refused to take it any further – much to the annoyance of the rider in question. Wonder who that could have been?

I think Lance will ride himself into some form this week…this guy is superb at planning his training to peak for the tour, stands to reason the collar bone crunch in the Giro put him back a couple of weeks….if Contador is kicking his butt he's probably psyched enough to ram him anyway 😆

Wiggins hasn't doped no way, the most vociferous in the peleton I reckon…great to see him doing so well…bodes well for next year, could see him in Lances team next year along with Cav