UKIP will win Clacton, Labour will hold Heywood but with the potential for a strong UKIP showing. No doubt tomorrow Clacton will make all the headlines with much UKIP drum banging but I think the voting in Manchester could be more significant.

Left leaning Fabian society published a piece today entitled “Revolt on the Left” (I read the summary but 50 pages is beyond me)

UKIP divides the Labour party internally. To date, senior Labour figures have been unable to agree whether a UKIP really problem exists and, if it does, how problematic it is likely to prove.

‘Revolt on the Left’ argues that UKIP poses a clear and present danger to Labour’s 2015 hopes and, left unchecked, could threaten to pull apart the party’s historic electoral coalition and challenge it in large swathes of its heartland territory. It incorporates new demographic analysis that, constituency by constituency, measures UKIP’s threat to the two main political parties.

link

yes the Tories are about to loose a seat to a UKIP Tory defector and what we should talk about is Labour and their issues with UKIP. 😯
If labour are divided by UKIP WTF are the tories then ? split asunder? Ravaged? Destroyed? Ruptured ? parted etc

You are a spin doctor for the tories I assume

FACE PALM

Some of your views are not even remotely supported by reality and this is one Personally I wont indulge this sorry attempt to deflect from tory woes by targeting labour when the tories are about to be roasted by a an ex Tory led by an ex Tory supported by ex tory voters in a seat they currently hold

… but I think the voting in Manchester could be more significant.

Nah. Don’t think so.

The Clacton case is very different with the incumbent MP switching sides. By all accounts he’s seen as a good MP by the locals and perhaps people are voting for the man, not the party.

On Radio 4 yesterday they interviewed someone who said that they’d vote for Carswell at this by election but for the Tories at the general election.

And calm down dear, who are you, the thread police ? 🙂

UKIP are indeed making inroads into the completely disillusioned labour core vote. As the withington by election showed last year Not as significantly as they are into the Tories, but I think they ‘re going to wreak havoc in May. They may not even win a seat, but they’ll swing constituencies all over the country. Not just the Tory South.

If you don’t think labour needs to be worried, their constituency party in Rochester certainly does! This is a fairly Scathing summary of the present utterly hopeless and clueless labour leadership, from the people on the ground in their own party.

They need to wake up! If they think UKIP is just a Tory problem, then they’re in for a bloody rude awakening!

What worries me is the number of previous Labour supporters who wouldn’t ever think of voting for the Tories but haven’t realised that UKIP is far more Tory than the Tories.

Labour should be worried for sure, but the Tories should be bricking it big time.

They need to wake up! If they think UKIP is just a Tory problem…

UKIP are not just a serious problem for the Tories, they are also a serious problem for Britain’s previous protest party, the LibDems.

You have to wonder where the collapsed lib dem vote will go though. I live in a Tory area that has voted lib dem. Labour a very distant third. Who do I vote for in my usual anyone one but a tory manner?..not **** UKip though. My brain would explode if the only way to stop them was a Tory vote.

It is very interesting and I don’t believe anyone knows what is happening – Is the Lib Dem vote going to Labour, but the working class labour vote going to UKIP or is the LIb Dem vote going directly to UKIP. Clearly Tories voters are going to UKIP, but is this concentrated in relatively safe seats or an across the board swing, plus the Greens are coming up on the inside, are they only going to be a factor in the seats they focus on or they going to pick up 5% or 6% across the board thus effecting overall results in marginals.

I think labour complacently assume that the former lib dem vote will go to them by default. I wouldn’t bank on that Ed.

The lib dems are now polling the same as the Green Party. About 7%. They’re finished! And justifiably so IMHO. I just want to see Cleggy lose his seat. His own personal ‘Portillo Moment’ for us all to laugh at!

Surely lib dem voters wont go ukip will they or a people really so cynical/stupid?

I was in Scotland during the build-up to the referendum. Alastair Darling was interviewed on TV. He spoke of the referendum and of mid-term by-elections where protest votes are prominent. I felt he regarded protest votes as something to ignore, that they wouldn’t happen in a real election.

This time there may be more, AD, then you’ll have to take notice. SNP are the protest vote in Scotland, I expect Labour to lose MPs to them. It’s sad that UKIP is the only alternative in England, now that the Libs have cooked their own goose.

By elections don’t really count though as nothing major is at stake, hence it’s ripe for protest votes.

Surely lib dem voters wont go ukip will they or a people really so cynical/stupid?

I’d like to think not (as a LD voter), I assumed only Tory voters were racist daft enough to vote UKIP….

I’m not convinced UKIP will win in Clacton, not sure how many people will still vote Tory but won’t admit it. I certainly doubt that they could hold it in next years election.

UKIP will take votes off Labour and the Tories, can’t see any former Lib-Dems voting for them. This will certainly skew the results in a lot of constituencies.

Worryingly, for the first time in my Euro-sceptic life, of all the party conferences this year I was most impressed by the Lib Dems. Don’t understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about. And they seem to have a more sensible approach to tax and fairness than the other two parties.

Flame me now 😥

The Labour Party are assuming everyone is going to come to their senses and fall in line. They’re assuming a certain rationality. The last time they did this in the North, up against a shrewd opposition (and UKIP are certainly that) the BNP won a load of the vote. They didn’t go in saying ‘send them back!’ They campaigned on local issues. Where the Labour Party didn’t campaign at all. Just assumed they’d win

If you’re on minimum wage in a northern constituency, UKIP. Are proposing raising the threshold so you pay no tax. Are the Labour Party proposing this? They should be but they’re not! They’re clueless! And it’s going to cost them!

Don’t understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about. And they seem to have a more sensible approach to tax and fairness than the other two parties.

Yep, don’t really see what all the fuss is about.

Being a Lib Dem supporter seems to be a lot like saying you quite liked Phil Collins / Genesis in the 80s……

UKIP. Are proposing raising the threshold so you pay no tax.

You mean they have actual polices other than reintroducing Slavery?

And you lot wonder why there was such a strong Yes vote in the just passed referendum? There was a heck of a lot of votes for Yes that were definitely not SNP in origin. Protest votes if you like but much broader than that. My wife – English and socialist – voted Yes..

Anyway, LibDems and their outcome? still liberal in outlook but it’s not just the loans fiasco, I think it’s the disgust at seeing the naked “jump into bed for power” lunge that they’ve made, Clegg is a nothing person now IMO, Cable, sadly, with limited credence, see also Alexander. Need Ashdown & Campbell to get some thought back.

Where would my vote go now? I guess a spoilt paper would be the obvious protest vote – however I suspect the Greens will see a strong uplift from dissatisfied / disillusioned LibDems..

Don’t understand their vilification on the student loans, all politicians break promises, especially those who end up in a coalition. That is what coalition and compromise is all about.

What Promises would you saty the Lib dems have forced the Tories to abolish?

perhaps you can show them pledging no to do something and then doing it as clearly as this

“I pledge to vote against any increase in fees in the next parliament and to pressure the government to introduce a fairer alternative”

People hate them more as they hoped for integrity and they got a capitulation that allowed the tories to deliver and them to not deliver
I see little to prise in that – I am sure clegg would not do it if he had the chance again,

I think that the problem some – Ernie – have with the LibDems is that it was a “pledge” not just a manifesto commitment and therefore non negotiable. I think that is a perfectly reasonable position, actually I think it is more than reasonable, it is very principled. The alternative view is that they were naive and therefore it shouldn’t be held against them. I see both points of views but I would fall off the fence on the side of principle.

Yes, I think it is unlikely your stereotypical LibDem voter would go to UKIP, but if you were working class but didn’t like Labour at the last election you may have voted LibDem and you may vote UKIP now, so I wouldn’t dismiss it out of hand.

the labour candidate has been parachuted in and so a lot of the local troops probably aren’t hitting the doorstep

she also had a car crash TV moment on the local Sunday politics show re the CSE scandal and the continued presence of senior council figures in office

I think it will be a lot tighter than they (labour) want

“jump into bed for power”

This is a dreadful argument, what is the point of a political party if you don’t seek power – there isn’t one. If they had gone for confidence and supply everyone would have castigated them for having no cojones. They were between a rock and a hard place and they took the least worst option. They must be praying that the Tories are the party with the most seats or votes, because if they have to go into coalition with Labour they will lose their right wing and be completely destroyed at the following election

binners – Member

I just want to see Cleggy lose his seat. His own personal ‘Portillo Moment’ for us all to laugh at!

he’s my MP, his voters were rich when they elected him, they’re rich now, he’s got no worries about re-election.

Just voted. What purpose do the party activists sat outside the voting hall serve? The Conservative lady, when I asked if she needed to see my voting card ,said “well you don’t have to but I would like to see it” then recorded my voter number and told the limp dem activist as well.
Turn out figures?

can i just say that Heywood is not in Manchester. Thank you

having got that out of the way. UKIP are scary as they don’t actually have any policies on anything. but this seems to actually be an asset for them. People on the left and right seem to be able to project onto this blank canvas what they would like the party to stand for and then vote for that imagined position.

i think they will come second in a lot of safe seats next year but not get many MPs

I’m rather surprised to find myself a voter in Heywood & Middleton – pretty sure at the last General Election I was voting for the Rochdale candidate.

*checks CD collection. Finds Genesis and Phil Collins*

😳

Foot flaps – they’re being a lot cleverer than people are giving them credit for. Middleton is only down the road from me, and UKIP have been out on doorsteps in force! They’re all over the town centre. And where are labour? Islington. They’ll probably win comfortably. Do they deserve too? Well….

All the major parties are losing out here and they should be worried. As with Salmond they have no strategy for dealing with people who essentially spout BS but can align themselves with a protest vote. They are not programmed (!) to deal with this.

They’re reaping the results of a far-too-cozy ‘is it out turn now’ political system stuffed full of career place-men. They’re completely clueless about how to deal with the likes of Salmond and Farage – people who actually believe in something, and are also clever bastards. And are running rings around them. They can’t deal with them at all. All they’re equipped for is the next step on the political ladder, doing their corporate paymasters bidding.they’ve completely forgotten that every five years the plebs get to put a spanner in the works.

They’ve become so complacent, the 2 parties just proposing more of the same, in a slightly different shade of grey, they weren’t banking on having any actual competition. And they hugely underestimated how utterly ****ed off with them we all are.

The Tories have dealt with it by becoming UKIP. Labour? It’s just sat there with it’s collective thumb up it’s arse! Utterly clueless. The political ‘elite’ are having a collective breakdown as they just don’t know how to deal with any challenge to what they considered their birthright!

You’d like to think they might actually start to listen to people other than corporate lobbyists, bankers and right wing think tanks.

Whereas all it’s done is painfully expose the fact that they offer a choice between a slimy PR man and a clueless muppet. Who ultimately represent exactly the same vested interests, just wearing different coloured ties

****s!!!

Ah, that explains the legalisation of same sex marriage.

Wondered why they’d done that 🙂

What? They recognised we’re actually in the 21st century, not the 19th? And we’re supposed to applaud that are we? The fact that that’s held up as some beacon of groundbreaking triumph for liberal democracy just shows how removed from most peoples day to day reality they are

I only seem to go to gay civil partnerships/weddings nowadays. Heterosexual weddings are just, like, sooooooo 20th century 😉

It doesn’t really matter who is in power. They all face the same challenge and all are ill equipped to be able to deal with it. Protest voters from the likes of UKIP won’t change anything.

Wowzers! wakey wakey, big business dictate policy no matter which party gets voted in, sigh.

Good to see posters have noticed the rise of the Greens in the polls. It’s just a shame the media haven’t (despite them actually having an MP, unlike UKIP!). I think they’re going to threaten both the Lib Dems and Labour – i know plenty of lefties who are going Green next election, myself included.

I wouldn’t say it won’t change anything THM. It’s dragging everything to the right into loony tunes territory

captjohn. – the greens get **** all media coverage, unlike bloody UKIP, because the right wing press hate them. They’re presently out-polling the lib dems. There’s hope yet!

I’m a disillusioned lefty who just can’t bring myself to vote labour any more. Made my mind up some time ago I’ll be voting green next time. I know plenty of other guardian reading pinko’s like me thinking the same

Would love to vote green, but their stance on nuclear, medical research is too much

It seems that most of our political narrative is framed by the rightwing press, and they are obsessed with Europe , hence UKIP as everyones preferred protest vote, more so now that the lib dems have been tainted by actual power

I think this point of under representation of the Greens compared to UKIP in the media is misguided. UKIP have won a national election, the Greens’ best performance is fourth – UKIP have to date been a much more significant national movement in voter numbers – the Greens have focused their resources much more locally.