I want to win a goat. Which choice do I make for that?
just don't switch doors when Monty give's the chance too.
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Probability/Multiple Choice
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Posted 7 months ago #
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Or is that just a load of nonsense?
It's nonsense. When adding fractions you don't add the denomenator, only the numerator.
Posted 7 months ago # -
Or is that just a load of nonsense?
It bears out my theory, so it's golden as far as I'm concerned. (Though as GF says, that's not how you add fractions, not that it matters)
Posted 7 months ago # -
Is it the fact that 2 of the numbers are the same rather than what the actual numbers are? There's nothing to say that any of them are 'correct'
So if the question is : if you choose one of 4 options at random and 1 of them is correct your chances are 1/4. If two of them are correct/the same (as the question sort of implies) then it's 2/4. If 2 are the same but incorrect then it's still 1/4.... is it?
Posted 7 months ago # -
Ha, yeah - of course. Stoopid me, I knew that anyway. Doh!
Posted 7 months ago # -
If you pick a random ball from the box, what is the probability that the ball is the colour written on the piece of paper?
Cougar that's not the same question.
In this case the correct ball depends on the ball you pick.. so it's a paradox.
Posted 7 months ago # -
s it the fact that 2 of the numbers are the same rather than what the actual numbers are?
it's both.
the two numbers the same change the probability of picking the correct answer from 25% to 50%. the correct answer becomse 50%. yet 50% is now not the correct answer as it only appears once thus making the correct answer 25% and so on...
Posted 7 months ago # -
In this case the correct ball depends on the ball you pick
this.
Posted 7 months ago # -
is it the fact that 2 of the numbers are the same rather than what the actual numbers are?
it's both.
the two numbers the same change the probability of picking the correct answer from 25% to 50%. the correct answer becomse 50%. yet 50% is now not the correct answer as it only appears once thus making the correct answer 25% and so on...
Only if 25% is the correct answer to start with. Couldn't the question just as well say:
a) blue
b) yellow
c) red
d) blueSo the odds of the one you pick being the 'right' one depends on what the right one is, which we don't know? Or have I totally missed the point here?
EDIT: Someone's already said this haven't they?
Posted 7 months ago # -
No, you are probably right Mr Salmon
Posted 7 months ago # -
However, I still keep getting drawn back to 1 in 3
If the answer is one of the unique answers - 1 in 4 chance of getting it right
If the answer is one of the duplicated answers - 1 in 2 chance of getting it right
Seeing as we have both these possibilities, lets go with somewhere in between the two and with no mathematical justification, say 1 in 3
Posted 7 months ago # -
Or have I totally missed the point here?
yes.
if it was
a) blue
b) yellow
c) red
d) blue
then it wouldn't be a paradox.If the answer is one of the unique answers - 1 in 4 chance of getting it right
If the answer is one of the duplicated answers - 1 in 2 chance of getting it right
exactly - you can't pick the correct answer.
it's a vicious circularity paradox.Posted 7 months ago # -
But if you consider each answer in turn, it is wrong. So the probability is zero since you cannot pick a right answer (which is the wording of the original question.
Posted 7 months ago # -
In that case - 50%. You either pick the right, or the wrong answer.
*finds nearest doorway to put head in* anyone want to repeatedly close the door really hard?
Posted 7 months ago # -
If the answer is 25% then you have a 50% chance of picking it, if the answer is 50% then you have a 25% chance of picking it so I'm going with 0
Posted 7 months ago # -
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?
a) 25%
b) 50%
c) 60%
d) 25%Thinking about this a bit more, I'm starting to wonder if this is a null question, as in the same frame as:
What hippo makes yellow sky?
1. Yes
2. Memory
3. 128 (and a bit)
4.It just makes no sense. So you choose an answer at random, then ask yourself are you correct? Correct about what? There is no question to be correct about, as the only question is asking what the probability if of being correct, but there's nothing to be correct about in the first place, so you get stuck in a loop that has no start.
UNLESS, you consider the question to be hidden and unstated, and that one of the answers is correct. But then as you've got two 25%s, the answer is 0%, even though it's not an answer (like I said before).
Posted 7 months ago # -
Whichever, it's annoying because 'correct' is basically a meaningless term in the original question although phil.w is probably right if it's supposed to be a paradox, but I still think that depends on 25% being the correct answer.
Posted 7 months ago # -
The question is 'what is the chance of you being correct'
The answer is 0% which isn't one of the choices. So it's equivalent to asking
What is 2+2?
a) 5
b) 6
c) 7
d) 8Posted 7 months ago # -
... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%, no... 25%, no... 50%....
Posted 7 months ago # -
Idiots.
The answer and the answers are related.
So you are answering the question regarding the chance of being right, using the answers that you are randomly choosing from.
There's no point trying to analyse it - it's a circular argument.
Statistically the answer is impossible to identify as we do not know what the question is that has generated those four choices - but, for the light of brain amongst you, you've decided that the four answers in some way direct the possibility of random correctness.
The probability of being correct is between 0 and 1.
Here endeth the lesson.
DrRSwank
BSc Applied StatisticsPosted 7 months ago # -
Does that mean I can stop now?
Posted 7 months ago # -
So you listened to him but not me?
Posted 7 months ago # -
Yeah, he's a Dr and he's got letters after his name.
TBH, I thought my answers made it clear I knew it was a paradox from the outset.
Posted 7 months ago # -
I know, just messin wit ya.
Posted 7 months ago # -
Depending on how you interpret the question, it's either,
a) I'm right,
b) It's a paradox,
c) It's a nonsense question made up in about 5 seconds by someone who doesn't actually have an answer to it, in order to waste the time of people who think they're clever.Who's for "c"? I've not actually found a definitive source or answer for this and am starting to think there isn't one.
Posted 7 months ago # -
Statistically - Answer C is correct Cougar.
There is no answer.
We have been presented with a question and a set of answers - but the two are not related.
TSY - never stop
Posted 7 months ago # -
It's easy to make up questions that don't have an answer, and it's REALLY easy to make up multiple choice ones that don't.
This one is sort of fun because it's self referential which adds a bit of a twist, but it's fundamentally no different to asking "What is the sun's favourite cheese?"
Posted 7 months ago # -
...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam, no...gorgonzola, no... edam...
Posted 7 months ago # -
I've just emailed it on and got a response of
25% chance of choosing 50%. As there are 2 25% then the answer is b) 50%.
I'm not sure I understand what that means! This could be fun
Posted 7 months ago # -
Four possible answers means a 25% chance of getting it right, seeing as two of the answers are 25% you have a 50% chance of picking one of them, but there's only one answer of 50% so you have a 25% chance of picking it, and seeing as two of the answers are 25% you have a 50% chance of picking one of them, but there's only one answer of 50% so you have a 25% chance of picking it, and seeing as two of the answers are 25% you have a 50% chance of picking one of them, but there's only one answer of 50% so you have a 25% chance of picking it, and seeing as two of the answers are 25% you have a 50% chance of picking one of them....
Posted 7 months ago # -
I've just emailed it on and got a response of
25% chance of choosing 50%. As there are 2 25% then the answer is b) 50%.
In which case the correct answer is 50% and there's only a 25% chance of picking that...Posted 7 months ago # -
The answer is 0% you tards, which isn't one of the options.
Posted 7 months ago # -
**** me is this one still going.
As a former mathematician I would say that the correct answer can be anything between 0% (if none of the answers are correct) and 50% (if the correct answer is 25% or whatever the one is that is repeated)..
On the basis of two key assumptions, that are
1/ One of the answers is in fact correct
2/ They are all equally likely to be correctThen the answer is 33%. QED.
Not sure where DrRSwank get's his answer 0-100% from. I think he may have jumped to that without any real thought -poor form for a statistician
Posted 7 months ago # -
By your thinking molgrips, then there is no answer, as 0% isn't an option.
Posted 7 months ago # -
That's what I've been saying all thread. No answer - unanswerable question.
Posted 7 months ago #
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