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How bad is this recession?

89 posts & 57 voices | Started 3 years ago by hh45 | Latest reply from mrmo

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hh45 - Member

I remember the 90's recession quite well (I was looking for a job) and am just about old enough to remember the 80's recession although I was at school and not in the job market and this recession just doesn't seem as bad as the earlier ones. I don't see many boarded up shops, pubs are still heaving, shops are fairly busy, car dealers are still bullish (even before the scrappage scheme announced today), tradesmen still won't give what I call a decent discount.

Is this cos I live in London or is the media just exaggerating when they say this is the worst recession since WW2? Where are the mass repossessions, the whole industries closed down (mining, steel, ship building etc), the mass unemployment and so on that we witnessed before.

Posted 3 years ago #
RudeBoy - Blocked

Christ, open you eyes!

Whole retail companies are going under, pubs are closing down at a rate of nearly 4 a day, car dealers are lying to themselves, and tradesmen are far more amenable to discounts and haggling!

By Canary Wharf, there is a massive billboard, advertising an auction service for repossessed properties. Whole office blocks are empty.

something like almost 2 million people are currently unemployed, with this figure set to increase to over 3 million, in the next year or so. Remember the last time we had that level of unemployment?

And there aren't any manufacturing industries left, to close down...

Wakey wakey. It's Finest Colombian.

Posted 3 years ago #
PapaWheelie - Member

Over here in Vancouver Canada house prices have dropped 30%, my company laid off 1/3 its staff, a few car dealers have folded and you can't get a full-time job unless you kill someone.

Posted 3 years ago #
TandemJeremy - Member

IMO it is bad - but is also being well overstated.

In the eighties recession unemployment if counted as it is now would have been 5 million+ at peak.

I think the major reason its being shouted about so much is that its affecting the middle class much more than previous ones

Posted 3 years ago #
Moda - Member

In the 80s there was yes high unemployment but there were plenty of jobs on offer. Just saying that through my own experience and others that i know who lost their jobs in the 80s. Personally i think the 80s affected only parts of the country whereas todays affects us all where ever we reside... Its definitely not overstated

Posted 3 years ago #
grumm - Member

I don't see much change round here - few shops have closed but only ones that weren't doing that well anyway. Pubs and shops still seem busy.

Posted 3 years ago #
epicyclo - Member

The first wave was when all the companies that were running on borrowings had to cut back or close down.

The next wave of the recession will come soon when previously profitable companies start shedding staff because of reduced demand. I see this happening in my local area - there's quite a few doing 4 day weeks, including my wife's firm. I doubt she'll have a job by June.

Then we will see some real downward pressure on the housing market when people in previously safe jobs either can't keep up their payments or can't refinance.

The latest budget isn't going to help. I'm a great believer in taxing the rich, but realist enough to know that it's not smart to drive them out of the country with heavy taxes. (They have already placed their money elsewhere by now because interest rates here provide a poor return on investment)

Posted 3 years ago #
KINGTUT - Member

IMO it is bad - but is also being well overstated.

In the eighties recession unemployment if counted as it is now would have been 5 million+ at peak.

I think the major reason its being shouted about so much is that its affecting the middle class much more than previous ones

Agreed, my business has about 10 months left in it, without any improvement it's goodnight Vienna.

Posted 3 years ago #
dr_adams - Member

Economics chappy said it was bad becuase normally its just the companies that are just about afloat that get hit and go, but they said this recession, lots of companies who are profitable are going, companies who make good money are seeing banks call in loans that don't need to be called in and so companies are closing even tho they have full order books

Posted 3 years ago #
duntmatter - Member

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose. Tant pis.

Posted 3 years ago #
porterclough - Member

Sheffield now doesn't feel like Sheffield in the 80s yet, and I don't expect it to.

Posted 3 years ago #
GNARGNAR - Member

It's bad. It's noticeable. But I think it's been hugely compounded by the media's coverage of it. Scare tactics and sensationalism. It's bound to have had a severe knock on effect on people's spending.

Posted 3 years ago #
mboy - Member

Christ, open you eyes!

Whole retail companies are going under, pubs are closing down at a rate of nearly 4 a day, car dealers are lying to themselves, and tradesmen are far more amenable to discounts and haggling!

By Canary Wharf, there is a massive billboard, advertising an auction service for repossessed properties. Whole office blocks are empty.

something like almost 2 million people are currently unemployed, with this figure set to increase to over 3 million, in the next year or so. Remember the last time we had that level of unemployment?

And there aren't any manufacturing industries left, to close down...

Wakey wakey. It's Finest Colombian.

Maybe a touch dramatic, but not wrong on the whole.

Unemployment reached 2 million a couple of weeks ago though, remember being sat watching the news the day before the job interview I had (which I got offered) and wondering if I was going to remain a statistic for too much longer! They also predict the unemployment figure to reach 3 million by the beginning of 2010, so less than 9 months!

LOL @ "no manufacturing industries left to close down"... Sad but true! The ONLY way to survive in Manufacturing in the UK is to make a product that is so niche/unique/better than all the competition, otherwise you're screwed. I know of several manufacturing companies locally that have gone under recently.

Never in my lifetime either have I known so many boarded up shops (not just the old Woolworths shops either) all over the high streets.

The biggest problem though is that this whole situation is self perpetuating. We have NO CONFIDENCE in our govt. to sort this problem out (well surprise surprise!), and they're proving us right. Which means the problem is going to carry on getting worse and worse for some time yet. Look at the USA, where they at least have a govt. they now believe in for the most part, their economy is at least slowing down in decline if not making a healthy recovery yet, but the UK's economy is probably suffering the most of any out there (Zimbabwe aside) due to lack of faith in the govt.

TandemJeremy - Member

IMO it is bad - but is also being well overstated.

In the eighties recession unemployment if counted as it is now would have been 5 million+ at peak.

I think the major reason its being shouted about so much is that its affecting the middle class much more than previous ones

Hmmm... I agree about the fact it's probably affecting the middle class more than previous recessions, but is the answer to get us out of recession to penalise anybody with enough foresight to put some money away for the rainy days too?

Bring on a good old bout of high inflation yet stagnating house prices I say!

Posted 3 years ago #
grizzlygus - Member

Where are the mass repossessions, the whole industries closed down (mining, steel, ship building etc), the mass unemployment and so on that we witnessed before.

Yeah it really is bad.

If it doesn't seem as bad as it's been before that's only because firstly, unemployment has only just reached the levels it was when the Tories were last in power.

Industries such mining, steel, ship building etc were all destroyed a long time ago by the Tories, and never re-built.

And finally this government is, unlike the Tories which pushed interest rates sky-high (15%) taking some small steps to actually help the situation.

Expect things to get really bad in 12 months time when the Tories are back in power.

Posted 3 years ago #
KINGTUT - Member

but is the answer to get us out of recession to penalise anybody with enough foresight to put some money away for the rainy days too?

Exactly what I did, I knew this recession would happen sooner or later and having been through two recessions I tucked away quite a few thousand to support the business through hard times, I'm earning **** all interest on it now.

Posted 3 years ago #
porterclough - Member

I find it I interesting that the 80s recession was supposedly because an economy based on making stuff was out of date. Now the economy based on buying Chinese goods with borrowed Chinese money has turned out to be pants, we're all supposed to panic. Well forgive me for thinking that it was all very predictable.

When are they going to tow london to the mid atlantic and sink it, that's what I want to know.

Posted 3 years ago #
grizzlygus - Member

When are they going to tow london to the mid atlantic and sink it, that's what I want to know.

Most of the MPs which took the decision to back a policy of moving away from manufacturing, didn't actually come from London.

Posted 3 years ago #
mboy - Member

When are they going to tow london to the mid atlantic and sink it, that's what I want to know.

No need... Keep burning fossil fuels in an irresponsible manner, don't recycle, waste electricity, London will soon disappear under the Thames/North Sea!

Posted 3 years ago #
Andy - Member

Tant pis
LOL!

First recession of the internet age therefor we all know quicker and harder; not to say we will come out of it quicker though .

Boarded up shops? Hey I'm a Grocer; it was a long long time coming. There is waaay too much high rent small retail space available at the moment. Thats been on the cards for quite a while.

Posted 3 years ago #
NZCol - Member

My bank god bless them sent me a letter withdrawing my $150K business loan. Sadly they sent it and REMOVED the loan on the same day so first thing i knew was my accountant having an eppy on the phone. Covered it by nicking 150K out my home mortgage - strangely they haven't said anything about that yet. In 2 weeks time i'll cash up all the other stuff and clean it all out. Shortly after that I am moving banks. This is for a business that is incredibly profitable but like all businesses has cash tied up until certain times (in our case end of tax year).

Posted 3 years ago #
bigrich - Member

NZcol, that wouldnt be ANZ by any chance? I was over in NZ last week, and have an ANZ account, and the feckers charged me 10 bucks per traqnsaction to use my own banks cash machines! I phoned up and they tole me to get over it, as I was technically in another country and had to face the charges. the bastards. I'm well considering changing.

Posted 3 years ago #
NZCol - Member

Nah it was ASB. You get charged everywhere, i get charged for using non-ASB machines, 50c per transaction. Oz is $5 per transaction so works both ways.
Its just mental really, they have no concept of almost ending a company for such a stupid and blatant c0ck up. Amazes me they haven't bailed me up about using my revolving credit (yet)...

Posted 3 years ago #
uplink - Member

Up here in NE England it will have to go a hell of a long way yet to get anywhere near what it felt like in the 80s
At one point then every one of us [family of 6] was sacked with zero chance of finding another job
We all worked for different companies BTW

Posted 3 years ago #
woffle - Member

tradesmen are far more amenable to discounts and haggling!

Not down in the South East they're not. We need some work doing on our roof and we're looking for a sizable patio to be laid along with some other bits and bobs - landscaping, brickwork etc. There's a good week to two's worth of work.

Can I get anyone to come and even quote? It's like squeezing blood from a stone - it's taken two weeks and about 20 phone-calls as well as numerous messages left on answerphones / with secretaries etc. We've managed to get a couple of people to come out next week. Both times I've already been warned 'not to expect a start anytime soon'

Posted 3 years ago #
Drac - Moderator

Yeah local tradesman are struggling I mean we asked about getting some work done in January on our house because of the drop in trade the jumped at the chance, they're coming in August as that's the earliest they can do it.

Posted 3 years ago #
PeterPoddy - Member

Expect things to get really bad in 12 months time when the Tories are back in power

As they try and sort out the mess currently being swept under the carpet by the current Labour fools, so pretty much the same as last time Labour were in power....

Posted 3 years ago #
grumm - Member

As they try and sort out the mess currently being swept under the carpet by the current Labour fools

You think the Tories can solve the world financial crisis?

Posted 3 years ago #
AdamW - Member

As they try and sort out the mess currently being swept under the carpet by the current Labour fools, so pretty much the same as last time Labour were in power....

In reality though, it is all bollox though, isn't it? Labour has turned into Tory and both sides have fallen in love with what they call 'free trade' and market liberalisation. They both talk the same rubbish, hold up a Rizla paper between themselves and say they have the best management. They're in love with the fat cats and don't give a damn about anyone outside their magic circle.

When Labour came in (after inventing themselves to be the New Tories) people thought this 'middle way' crap was going to be about capitalism and liberalism working hand-in-hand. Nah, it was just pure unfettered capitalism and look where that has got us.

As a way of looking at it think of both parties from, say, 25 years ago. Labour has changed massively (in the wrong direction IMHO) but the Tories look more or less the same.

Still, we get the governments we deserve.

Posted 3 years ago #
TandemJeremy - Member

YOu guys need to remenber that the way unemployment is calculated now is different to the eighties - the figure now is 20-40% higher than it would have been in the eighties ie 2 million now would have been 1.5 million then. Under current ways of counting unemployed the peak figure in the eighties would have been 5 million

Posted 3 years ago #
Richie_B - Member

Christ, open you eyes!

What he means is that its affecting the SE as much as it is everywhere else this time. Its bad but from a Sheffield perspective its no where near as bad as the eighties & nineties

porterclough what they have never figured out down in London is that while they have all the money, we've got all the water. We just sit tight and see who cracks first

Posted 3 years ago #
matt_outandabout - Member

I think (and I could be wrong having been in school in the 90's), that the issue with this recession in length, not depth, and the fact that we no longer have some basic industries around that dig things out the ground, grow things in the ground, make something from the previous two, or provide a service that people need (not want). Without the underlying industries, and the massive debt we now face, and the fact that we import so much (so moving money out the country that could be kept here) - the way out is long, slow and slippery IMHO.
There are some areas of the country that do have the natural resources, and some of the basic industries, and they are doing OK at present - but I don't think its enough to prop up the other areas that are struggling and will continue to.

Posted 3 years ago #
matt_outandabout - Member

porterclough what they have never figured out down in London is that while they have all the money, we've got all the water. We just sit tight and see who cracks first

Posted 3 years ago #
CaptJon - Member

The next big hit will be job losses. The Govt are desparately trying to stop this happening in the public sector, but it is inevitable unfortunately. What needs to happen is to scrap some of the big projects, e.g. ID cards - a total waste of money in these times; Crossrail - demanded by the City, well they can f*^k off now; Trident would save a few bob too. Keep the projects that employ lots of people though.

Posted 3 years ago #
vinnyeh - Member

porterclough what they have never figured out down in London is that while they have all the money, we've got all the water. We just sit tight and see who cracks first

No problem, a new job creation scheme emptying bottles of Evian into the Thames Water reservoirs should see us win that one

But seriously, having recently returned from 9 months in the Midlands, London doesn't seem to be as badly hit- cities with one or two large employers are very vulnerable, but London's diversity means there still seems to be work out there, albeit a lot of temporary stuff.

Posted 3 years ago #
simonm - Member

The Govt are desparately trying to stop this happening in the public sector, but it is inevitable unfortunately.

your right, I think, when you look into yesterdays budget, thats just about to happen. Those people who have been smug in there public sector jobs for the last six months better watch out !

Posted 3 years ago #