Who’ll get yellow?
Who’ll get green?
Does anyone care about the polka dot jersey anymore?

What about Wiggins, Cav and all other British interest?

Wiggins and sky are looking good but I still don’t think they’ve got what it takes. Might see some good riding but not consistent enough to get on the podium. A respectable finish should be on the cards.

Cav will win some stages. He’ll win more if something bad happens in the first few to wind him up ;). I doubt he’ll get through a whole tour without some drama.

The druggie will win it

The druggie will win it

Which?

i suspect it will go to contador too. there was a guardian article recently that speculated that the race is really for second place, as contador will most likely win and may be stripped of his title come august if he’s found guilty of doping…

Contador for yellow…only to get it stripped due to drug taking in last years tour.
I’d love to see Cav in green but think it will be Hushovd. Cav will win stages but not sure he does enough in the rest of the race to get green.
No idea on the mountains.
Wiggins will get top 10 I think but no more than that, certainly not a podium.

Contador will be allowed to win – no one will bother chasing / marking him as he will be banned. Devalues the entire race unless the organisers can find some way of keeping him out.

Contador will win I think. I think it will be a pretty boring predictable tour and more of a battle for 2nd and 3rd than first.

Contador will be allowed to win – no one will bother chasing / marking him as he will be banned.

Banning Contador retrospectively and stripping him not just of one Tour win but also this years Giro and this years Tour will just make WADA/UCI/cycling in general look utterly stupid. So it won’t happen. Contador will probably win this years Tour and when the CAS hearing is finally held, he’ll get let off on some technicality or other.

This reminds me, I need to sort out my Fantasy TdF Team…

Contador is one of the real great riders so a bit of a shame to say his seemingly inevitable victory makes it boring – there’s so much else going on each day; it really is the greatest sporting event.

Andy Schleck will be 5 minutes clear coming into the the last mountain stage but will throw it away trying let his brother win the polka-dot jersey. Net result they both win bog all as per usual.

Matt

Contador will be allowed to win – no one will bother chasing / marking him as he will be banned. Devalues the entire race unless the organisers can find some way of keeping him out.

Not too sure of your position on this one TJ, do you think you could just give me the facts as they currently stand? No conjecture or opinion, just the facts as they stand, please?

Clenbutador for the win. 😉
Cav for the green, isn’t the point system changing this year?

Points system has changed for this year – 1 intermediate sprint instead of 2 as before so doing what he does best should see him win green. Also, I think the number of points for winning a stage has been increased relative to the points for 2nd so victory is worth more. You could almost think the French like him….

You could almost think the French like him….

Can you back this up with a spurious Wikipedia link, please?

I thought I’d read somewhere that he felt more confident this year because of the change. Cheers.

I think Wiggo has a good chance of top five and outside chance of podium. My major doubt is the climate. I’m not sure how Brad handles the heat and mountains and there is talk of a major heat wave during the Tour. I think Sky have come on leaps and bounds and do think they have what it takes to support BW properly this year. Lack of climbing support could also be a problem for Brad though to be fair, if he is only thinking of podium he can use other contenders and their teams for support.

Green – I have doubts about both Cav and Husovd. I think they both have team problems that could deny them. Thor has Farrar on his team looking for wins and HTC have said that they have a 2 prong attack with Cav and Goss, which I suspect could well come down to a split in the ranks as Cav is off to pastures new (please not Sky but I know it will be. Couldn’t Leopard REALLY use a sprinter?). I haven’t read the rule changes for the green so can’t comment on how it effects chances. I think team dynamics are going to be the problem for TH and MC. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was an “unknown” taking it.

Yellow – I can’t see Contador not taking it and the Schlecks making a cock up and ruining each others chances while they try to work for each other.

Polka Dot – Nibali if he realises he’s got no chance of yellow and switches to going for Polka Dot. If not -no idea.

Cadel Evans is looking like a genuine GC contender this year. He would have been last year too if it weren’t for that broken collarbone.

Not too sure of your position on this one TJ, do you think you could just give me the facts as they currently stand? No conjecture or opinion, just the facts as they stand, please?

You have been told this many times – you just don’t want to believe it.

Wada rules are clear – strict liability applies. Fail a drug test get a ban. Teh spanish federation are supposed to follow WADA rules but decided to find a technicality to let him off which was clearly outside the scope of the rules. WADA appeal. contador has no defence so delays and delays until he can ride the TDF. WADA will win the appeal and Contador will be banned. Cycling looks really really stupid,
He must be banned. its farcical that he hasn’t and he has no defence under the WADA rules – even if the beef story is true he still must serve a ban and lose last years tour .

The whole credibility of the sport is being ruined

😆

Damn, I feel bad now I agree with TJ, doubt all the spanish political pressure will get him off, unlike in his own federation

I think contador is realising the giro tour double is incredibly hard. I don’t think he’ll do it tbh. Schleck doesn’t have the killer instinct, as he showed many times, cadel can’t handle the big climbs and sammy Sanchez hasn’t got the team. So my bet is basso….

Green, my heart says cav, my head says Gilbert. You heard it here first! Quite a few uphill digs in the final kms of stages.

Ruins the credibility?

The tour riders have been doping since Day 1. Strychnine, champagne, amphetamines in the early days, more sophisticated drugs now.

Again re credibility – you can’t take away the enormity of the undertaking, no matter how big a bucket of drugs you gave any average rider-in-the-street, he/she could not ride the Tour (not in the timeframe anyway).

consider that if the Contador test was done in accordance with the standards there would be no positive. The level is far below the thresholds set.

consider that if the Contador test was done in accordance with the standards there would be no positive. The level is far below the thresholds set.

there is no threshold IIRC. It is below the level that used to be decectable but a newer more sensitive test caught him.

As for the credibility – its having someone who has failed a drug test winning the Giro and entering the totdf that ruins the credibility – the inability of the authorities to deal with people who fail drug tests

consider that if the Contador test was done in accordance with the standards there would be no positive. The level is far below the thresholds set.

Oh FFS, not this again.
The lab has to be accredited by WADA which it was. For that accreditation it has to prove it can detect said drug at a certain concentration.
It picked the drug up at less than this concentration (ie the test is more sensitive than it has to be). No big deal there, plenty of tests are more sensitive than they have to be by law: drink driving test for example.

Clenbuterol is a zero tolerance drug. ANY concentration in the human body, no matter how small, is (or should be) an automatic fail.
The fact he had clenbuterol in his system = fail. The concentration is immaterial.

The fact that it’s dragged on this long has damaged cycling far more than just him failing the test and being banned. That can be seen by this thread which started as a perfectly innocent “what’s going to happen in TdF” and almost immediately turned to doping.

hasn’t the contador argument been done to death already on STW

Sorry guys – I got trolled into it by don simon. my apologies. Its been done to death.

just give it up TJ……Don’s time will come

😀

just give it up TJ……Don’s time will come

Why will my time come? I have always said that if he’s proven guilty I will accept the verdict. Up until then…

So if Contador is a shoe-in for the win but also a shoe-in for being stripped of it a couple of weeks later, how do I stand if I bet my pension on him? Will Ladbrokes call me 3 weeks after I’ve been in and claimed my (slightly increased) pot of money and demand it all back?

how do I stand if I bet my pension on him?

If you’re a teacher, I don’t think your stake will be worth the paper it’ll be printed on.

Contador looked seriously impressive in the Giro, he could have taken a lot more time out them any time he wanted.

But, there was only one Schleck last year and both are meant to be in good form now. If they work really well together I could just about see one of them beating him but it would have to be down to tactics rather than the better rider winning.

Looked like Contador was sick last year (I suspect this was why he gambled with the drugs) so if he’s ok this year it could be interesting.

Would like Cav to win green, sounds like there’s a hope of it now with the new scoring, but still doubt it’ll happen.

It is true that drugs have plagued pro sports as long as there have been drugs and pros. Hobby sports people (inclde onlympians) see drugs as the work of the devil, it would be an interesting debate to see how many people who stand against drugs in sport are, or have been, recreaional drug users? The TDF is still one of the biggest sporting events in the world and long may it be so!

Did you see the team presentation today?

Laughed my socks off! Proper Euro trash meets Jeaux sans Frontiers!

Bertie got roundly booed and jeered when he was on the rostrum.

Isn’t there a bit of a difference between a bit of puff to chill out and lab drugs to get you a €5 million per year contract/gold medal/corporate sponsorship deal?

Who cares about contador, he’s annoying. It’s all about the brothers grimpeur. And cav. And wiggins. And geraint. And motorcus. Looking forward to seeing a bit more of this guy

Brilliant performance last year.

And I’ve got a broken arm, so I don’t have to feel guilty about staying in for 3 weeks of the summer watching tv and looking up stuff on the internet instead of riding myself.

Is anyone doing the fantasy TDF on nrtoone.com?

Dogsby

Chavanel is one of my fave riders too, got to meet him at the Tour of Flanders. One gutsy mofo!

I am thinking ASchleck. The Giro was uber tough, saying that Contador made it look easy in places.

I think a top 10 finish for Wiggo will be a good thing. If he hadnt of won the Dauphine nobody really would have rated him this year tbh. I cant see why he is shorter odds than Evans?

Yellow – ASchleck
Green – Cav
KoM – ASchleck or Bertie
Young – Tejay Van Garderen

I think it will be over by they leave the Pyrenees though.

Yep very excited – still reckon Dirty Bertie might romp home
but would be great to see Evans up there in a battle for yellow.

Wiggo in the top 5 would be marvellous and a proper battle for Polka would be great between Nibbles and Rodriguez.

Plus Cav for green…

A decent battle over Sestrieres continued up Alpe d’Huez would be marvellous

A decent battle over Sestrieres continued up Alpe d’Huez would be marvellous

Stop it! Just stop it! Im in work and now youre just teasing me! 😳

GC
Bertie
Andy
Ivan

KOM Frank
Green Thor

Best breakaway – Tommy V
Best haircut – fabulus candellabra
Best gurning moment – Voght
Best sprinter – Cav

…Off to register on road.cc to do the Fantasy league !