have you seen LV='s methodology for working the accident figures out?
"Of the 45,434,897 UK adult population (2001 census), 43 per cent cycle. Of these, 11 per cent have been involved in an accident, 7 per cent of these took place in the last six months = 150,434 accidents. In the year six months previously 4 per cent of all accidents took place = 85,962 accidents. There has therefore been a 29 per cent increase in accidents."
why they didn't just divide 1.07 by 1.04??
anyway at that rate, in 5 years there will be 150 * (1.29)^10 = 2 million accidents.