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  • Excel error caused world move to austerity budgets.
  • wwaswas
    Full Member

    genius.


    In 2010, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff released a paper, “Growth in a Time of Debt.” Their “main result is that…median growth rates for countries with public debt over 90 percent of GDP are roughly one percent lower than otherwise; average (mean) growth rates are several percent lower.” Countries with debt-to-GDP ratios above 90 percent have a slightly negative average growth rate, in fact.

    This has been one of the most cited stats in the public debate during the Great Recession.
    ….
    all I can hope is that future historians note that one of the core empirical points providing the intellectual foundation for the global move to austerity in the early 2010s was based on someone accidentally not updating a row formula in Excel

    Full article.
    http://www.nextnewdeal.net/researchers-finally-replicated-reinhart-rogoff-and-there-are-serious-problems

    stumpyjon
    Full Member

    Yeah course it was.

    STATO
    Free Member

    its interesting you quote that bit not the follow-up clarification at the bottom which makes clear there were a series of concerns and people shouldnt focus on the excel error alone.

    AdamW
    Free Member

    Sod that, the main point I take from it is that our economies are being based on a non-peer tested excel spreadsheet with unreleased data and strangely unexplained omissions from the used data set.

    Not that Gideon would change owt, it’s dogma innit?

Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)

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