The assertion we’re discussing isn’t if it’s business as usual, it’s whether or not trade deals are necessary. They’re not.

Many things in the world are not necessary, computers for instance. We could just go back to typewriters and fax machines and the post but email and electronic storage has made everything a lot easier.
Beyond manufacturing and from the above link

Financial services: New commercial opportunities for Australian banks, insurers and securities firms. These include allowing Australian financial service providers to establish joint venture futures companies with up to 49 per cent Australian ownership, and Australian insurance providers more liberal access to China’s statutory third-party liability motor vehicle insurance market.

Tourism and travel-related services: ChAFTA guarantees that Australian services suppliers will be able to construct, renovate and operate wholly Australian-owned hotels and restaurants in China. Australian travel agencies/tour operators are also able to establish wholly Australian-owned subsidiaries in China, providing: travel and hotel accommodation for domestic and foreign travellers, tours within China for both domestic and foreign travellers, and travellers’ cheque cashing services.

Health and aged care services: China now permits Australian service suppliers to establish profit-making aged care institutions throughout China, and wholly Australian-owned hospitals in certain provinces. This will greatly expand the Australian private health sector’s offering of medical services through East Asia.
That is stuff that would not be possible without a deal.

Beef: tariffs (currently ranging from 12-25 per cent) will be eliminated by 1 January 2024
Dairy: all tariffs on Australian dairy products (up to 20 per cent) will be eliminated between 1 January 2019 and 1 January 2026 – this includes rapid elimination of the 15 per cent tariff on infant formula and the 10-19 per cent tariff on ice cream, lactose and casein, both by 1 January 2019
Sheep and goat meat: tariffs on all sheep and goat meat (ranging from 12-23 per cent) will be eliminated by 1 January 2023
Pork: all pork tariffs (up to 20 per cent) will be eliminated by 1 January 2019
Hides and Skins: tariffs of 5 to 14 per cent on hides and skins including, sheepskin, cowhide and kangaroo hides and skins, will be eliminated between 1 January 2017 and 1 January 2022
Wine and Spirits: tariffs of 14 and 20 per cent on wine, and tariffs of up to 65 per cent on alcoholic beverages and spirits, will be eliminated by 1 January 2019

Removing 20-65% Tariffs isn’t a small thing!!!

Graham more ridiculous scaremongering in that NHS picture. Leave and the Govt already said all people could stay and as my friend who works in the NHS says we have many non-EU staff all of whom have a visa. Its really not difficult. As an aside my good friends daughter worked as an equine vet in Australia to gain experience, it was easy to get a visa.

Sorry, but if I was an overseas doctor/ nurse/ whatever, and I saw the strong anti-foreigner attitude in the UK (please don’t deny it), then I would not be overly keen to come and work here regardless of how easy the visa process was.

now have an additional 3% on their prices (or on their costs if they decide to take it on the chin, in order that their customers don’t get stung) plus additional admin associated with exporting in this brave new world. We’ve just made it harder for folks to do business with us. So it would probably more than 3%? Even if it is only 3% … a 3% drop in profits is quite a big deal for a lot of companies?

You have to make an export declaration to UK customs. Either you or your EU customer has to pay that duty (+ VAT) at the border and make an import declaration to SEU customs (or pay some one else to make that declaration).

You think a 3% price hike plus extra logistics hassle won’t influence a business’ buying decisions?

Indeed, and nothing I’ve said contradicts that. The assertion I’m disputing is that you can’t trade without a trade deal. You can, lots of people do, and it’s not *that* bad.

Over simplification of the issues and the plans is what got us into this pickle in the first place?

LOL, someone says you can’t trade without a trade deal, I point out that’s wrong, and now I’m “oversimplifying”… 🙂

Indeed, and nothing I’ve said contradicts that. The assertion I’m disputing is that you can’t trade without a trade deal. You can, lots of people do, and it’s not *that* bad.

True, but it is worse than the status quo. That is why we are being so stupid.

The devil is in the detail – something that was lost in this debate under the weight of blame Johnny….

True, but it is worse than the status quo. That is why we are being so stupid.

Unless you calculate that the business who lose will be more than offset by the business who win. (Which I haven’t.)

The devil is in the detail – something that was lost in this debate

You’re pushing against an open door there.

Of course it is possible, just more difficult and more expensive. Realistically, we’re going to have more red tape to sell into the EU, not less. (unless there is someone who specialises in import/export/shipping is on here and can tell me different?)

Why would anyone want to make themselves less competitive?

My point is that all of this stuff is okay in theory, but we will need to put things into practice at some point. These glib ‘we’ll just get a new trade deal’ or ‘we’ll just pay a 3% tariff’ are a giamongous over simplification of what these businesses are going to have to go through. The big boys will be okay, the small/medium companies are going to have to work very hard – for less.

I think the number I saw (and I don’t have a link and my memory is often shonky – in fact it might have been Gus interviewed on Today) was 120 trade deals that we have or are about to have via the EU.
Might not need to renegotiate all of them though – olive oil sales to China (or anywhere else) might be in there and not really needed by Britain.

Unless you calculate that the business who lose will be more than offset by the business who win. (Which I haven’t.)

More paperwork, more hassle, more red tape and still nothing more than a bit of ideology to comfort and offset it.

The near universal response from business, manufacturers, financial people etc for the eu vs a tiny vocal minority (mostly with specific axes to grind) sunk in yet? They might have been on to something but they were just experts so…

Graham more ridiculous scaremongering in that NHS picture.

I think the research centre is actually part of Newcastle University’s Institute of Genetic Medicine, rather than NHS. Though they do obviously have ties to the NHS as they run neuromuscular disease clinics for NHS patients.

Leave and the Govt already said all people could stay

Assuming there is enough funding to pay for them of course.
And will they want to stay when the EU funding moves somewhere else where they don’t have to sort out a visa for themselves and their families every time they come to stay?

my friend who works in the NHS says we have many non-EU staff all of whom have a visa. Its really not difficult.

And yet look at that picture. If it is just as easy to get a points-based work visa then why is it there so few people in that picture from non-EU countries? Do we have such a national surplus of neuromuscular genetic specialists that we are turning them away?

my good friends daughter worked as an equine vet in Australia to gain experience, it was easy to get a visa.

I lived in Oz for a year with my wife in 2003. It took months to sort out her visa to work at a hospital there, despite her meeting all the criteria and them being desperate for UK doctors. I accompanied on a Working Holiday visa and we had to jump through various legally-grey hoops to make that work.

Not insurmountable, but quite a different experience to just having the right to work somewhere.

These glib ‘we’ll just get a new trade deal’ or ‘we’ll just pay a 3% tariff’ are a giamongous over simplification of what these businesses are going to have to go through.

Feel free to post the whole process in detail, I’ll certainly read it.

We sell into the EU (a lot). We also buy some of our raw materials in US$. But I’m sure the forthcoming trade deals with Papua **** New Guinea will more than make up the shortfall and we can continue employing 100s of people.

For a start have a read of the China Aus free trade deal site I linked to, it tells you all the things that are now possible and are now sorted. Should give you a good idea

People still don’t realise what they’ve voted for, and they maybe never will. If they can’t forsee the hassle, expense and lost opportunities that will result from leaving the EFTA, and can’t see the loss of democratic power and control over that area by leaving the EU, then, they won’t acknowledge either as the effects kick in. They’ll blame other things for a weaker economy and less say in how the world works. What will they blame if not the Leave voters? I know what/who I fear they will blame…

The devil is in the detail – something that was lost in this debate under the weight of blame Johnny….

Hmm, talking about detail – the only commitment, ever, and what people have voted for, is to remove us from the EU.

Everything else, money, immigration, trade, is all bluff & bluster and counter bluff & bluster. The image of what relationship Britain has with the EU after we leave is very much one that is up for negotiation.

Right now Britain could crack down on immigration massively, th EU rules on freedom of movement of labour clearly allow numerous restrictions to be imposed for ourposes of public security it public policy – there may be arguments with ECJ over exactly how far those restrictions can go, but the fact that we can lawfully impose restrictions places very significant wriggle room in negotiation over what ‘Britain outside the EU’ means.

Norwegian model, that allowed UK employment/immigration only with a proportionate points based system looking into things like criminal record (EU public safety restriction clause) capital, health (EU no burden on public services clause) nature of work (EU freedom of movement of labour does not apply to public sector work, but there is case law making this restriction unusual)

Much of this sector of EU law is undeveloped, there is clearly extensive wiggle room that allows both sides to save face in the negotiations, the EU is generally pragmatic over these things (see the fudge over Swedens duty to adopt the Euro as an example).

The future is very bright for a UK within the single market, but outside the political machinations of the EU, and also able to enter into other trade agreements as we wish EFTA, even NAFTA, could be achievable within a short timescale.

Also what about Bank Passports, how important are they?

Pretty important if a bank wants to trade in Europe.

It’s essential for our business, so I think the plan is to open an entity in Ireland or Frankfurt where we already have affiliate office.

People still don’t realise what they’ve voted for, and they maybe never will. If they can’t forsee the hassle, expense and lost opportunities that will result from leaving the EFTA,

The future is very bright for a UK within the single market, but outside the political machinations of the EU, and also able to enter into other trade agreements as we wish EFTA, even NAFTA, could be achievable within a short timescale.

Sorry, this not how EFTA works. To be part of it, you have to accept to apply external tariffs at the rates set by the EU. So, every external trade agreement we make will either have abide by EU rules (which we will no longer play a part in forming) or, for the product categories that the agreement applies to, lose EFTA status for those products.

You do know what EFTA is, and that we left it in 1973, right?

Now, how about you tell us some more about how we don’t know what we voted for 😆

The devil is in the detail – something that was lost in this debate under the weight of blame Johnny….

I read a nice blog post comparing the EU Referendum with the Scottish Independence referendum and the main point was how little detail and debating time there was.

In the Scottish Referendum the “Yes” campaign published Scotland’s Future – a 670 page document laying out their proposals and addressing the various issues. This was released 10 MONTHS before the referendum so everyone got a good chance to debate it.

In contrast the Vote Leave campaign published a 16-page document that was barely more than a Powerpoint presentation.

In the Indyref the referendum date was announced 18 months in advance.

In the EU ref the date (23rd June) was announced on the 20th of February.

Small wonder then that the EU ref debate on both sides lacked depth!

(rest of that blog post is well worth a read too)

Feel free to post the whole process in detail, I’ll certainly read it.

Exactly my point. I don’t know it and I haven’t seen anyone on here who does as yet. Hence why as asked if I was missing something.

I’m not having a pop at you. I’m just hearing a lot of folks saying that all will be okay as we will go and negotiate our own deals or accept the additional tariffs. As you quite rightly point out, all of that is possible. I just don’t know how realistic that is and wondered if anyone on here did?

It’s hard enough doing finding new business within the UK, let alone in the EU and even harder in the rest of the world. I was just wondering why folks out there (not you personally) seem to think it is going to be so much easier because we have all of these whizzy new trade deals (in 10 years time)

Trading with Australia.. by pure coincidence I’m trying to have an informal call with someone in Sydney. It’s taken a couple of days so far because of the time zone difference which means that he is leaving work as I’m starting. Pain in the balls.

Also what about Bank Passports, how important are they?

Those that have larger presences already in other capitals will probably wait and see, as it will be easier to upscale/downscale operations when more is known. Those that don’t are going to have to start planning now, we will lose them in the period of uncertainty.

because of the time zone difference which I’m just lazy and not working 18hrs a day like Gove/BoJo wants means that he is leaving work as I’m starting. Pain in the balls.

FIFY 🙂

Boss is back in the UK at the moment and it’s a right pain this time of year.

Not BoJo!

In the Scottish Referendum the “Yes” campaign published Scotland’s Future – a 670 page document laying out their proposals and addressing the various issues. This was released 10 MONTHS before the referendum so everyone got a good chance to debate it.

In contrast the Vote Leave campaign published a 16-page document that was barely more than a Powerpoint presentation.

Both were full of bllx though. Unfortunately, one worked…..

Most banks have officrs / branches elsewhere in Europe anyway. Loss of passporting requires asditional local prescence. I forget when the passporting came in but we got on fine without it before. Its also true to say most European banks UK included are refocusing on domestic activities.

As I said previously EU regulations put my business at a disadvantage to my US and Asian competitors

Not BoJo!

Indeed, must make May a big favourite. She came out for Remain which was a bit of a surprise as she’s highly eurosceptic. Her announcement statement was heavily Brexit. No Referendum, no election, Article 50 not in 2016 but Brexit is what we voted for

In contrast the Vote Leave campaign published a 16-page document that was barely more than a Powerpoint presentation.

Ooh I missed that, just saw something on the side of a bus.

Most banks have officrs / branches elsewhere in Europe anyway. Loss of passporting requires asditional local prescence. I forget when the passporting came in but we got on fine without it before. Its also true to say most European banks UK included are refocusing on domestic activities.

I think you underestimate the number of “small” US (& other) banks which picked London because of a) English and then when it came in b) Passporting.

It’s an essential part of our business now so we’ll have to do something.

She came out for Remain which was a bit of a surprise as she’s highly eurosceptic.

Not really. That was the only sensible decision 😉

I think you underestimate the number of “small” US (& other) banks which picked London because of a) English and then when it came in b) Passporting.

It’s an essential part of our business now so we’ll have to do something.
At this point I’d be investing in Guinness 🙂

Her announcement statement was heavily Brexit. No Referendum, no election, Article 50 not in 2016 but Brexit is what we voted for

Now, I know that politicians are known for telling the truth and all that. But do you not think that there just might be a tiny possibility that she’s saying what the Leavers side of her party want to hear, in order that they, I don’t know, support her?

Conservative leadership contests often through up outsiders I think.

I lived in Oz for a year with my wife in 2003. It took months to sort out her visa to work at a hospital there, despite her meeting all the criteria and them being desperate for UK doctors. I accompanied on a Working Holiday visa and we had to jump through various legally-grey hoops to make that work.

Not insurmountable, but quite a different experience to just having the right to work somewhere.

Back in 2001 the company I worked for asked me to go work at their German offices. We went over for a weekend, found a house to rent and within a month I was working their. Bank accounts opened etc. My wife didn’t work as we’d a little one, but she could’ve done. No visa’s, no forms and no Govt to deal with.

I forget when the passporting came in but we got on fine without it before

We got along fine without a lot of things before, but now they are an advantage, and being outside the system will be a disadvantage.

As I said previously EU regulations put my business at a disadvantage to my US and Asian competitors

Interested to hear what these are. And why do these regulations exist? AFAIK in manufacturing industries EU regs make EU businesses less competitive because they are protecting the environment – so in some cases, you don’t want to be competitive. Because if we didn’t have the regs then there’s no way we could persuade China &co to adopt them.

You do know what EFTA is, and that we left it in 1973, right?

Now, how about you tell us some more about how we don’t know what we voted for

Of course I do. We are leaving the EU, and I was replying to somone saying we could join EFTA and also have free reign to do whatever other trade deals we want, without the EU having a say in those deals. This is not true.

consequences

https://theconversation.com/uk-food-faces-historic-realignment-after-brexit-61716

more scaremongering

http://www.sunderlandecho.com/news/business/chairman-of-50million-investors-hitachi-warns-sunderland-jobs-at-risk-in-cold-reality-of-brexit-1-7950561