I have not actual data to support this, but my feeling is that the Chain will be more efficient.
As for belt drive being “the next big thing“. I would hope not, but then again, we ride in the shadow of an industry which is totally geared up to selling us all, the next big thing.
I have 4 bikes, all chain drive. I’m not replacing them with belt-driven bikes just because some company cracks the perceived technical issues involved.
Anyway, as others have pointed out, I just can’t see a belt taking the abuse a chain will. Perhaps if I rode bone dry, dusty trails all year round, and if I liked hub-gears/gear boxes.
No, its not for me and it wont be my must have feature on a bike.
As for Gear boxes, No thanks to them too. I like being able to service my bike, with a minimum of tools. Not something I’d be able to do with a gear box in my bike.
Solo.