Ukraine

I get the feeling that Putin is itching for a confrontation with NATO. If it’s conventional he looses, if nuclear we all lose.

It still just feels like basic brinkmanship to me, if I put myself in Putins shoes… he’s murdering people on a daily basis in his invasion on another country, he can stop any time he wants.

He’s just testing the waters to see how hard other countries hit back.

Putin won’t go nuclear unless NATO/Ukrainian forces cross the border into Russia proper en masse.

Everything else is a bluff, If he uses a single tactical nuke in Ukraine he’s a global pariah and the few allies he has (mainly China) will be put under massive pressure to cut him off.

If he decides to go full Dr Strangelove a member of his own staff will likely put a bullet in him, it’s unlikely though as the CIA had let it be known that they know Putin’s exact location 24/7 and the first warhead the west launches in retaliaton will be heading  straight for him.

If Putin was going to use nukes or attack NATO, he would have done so long ago.

Seems that Ukraine have gone after all the grounded A50’s and plane repair facilities with multiple drones of a new kind which fly low and fast, and over an hour into Russian territory…

I’m surprised that Ukraine hasn’t made this move before. A fortnight ago (when the second Beriev A50 was downed) I looked at maps of Taganrog to understand where it was and it isn’t far from the border with Ukraine.

Sitting in plain sight on satellite view was an AWACS. I don’t know when the photo was taken, but its copyright date was 2024 (good old Google if you want a look)

I suspect that that aircraft is a Beriev A100, which is the next gen A50, and isn’t operational yet, but Taganrog is a logical target because it clearly has the skills and is rumoured to be repairing the A50 damaged on the ground in Belarus (from March 2023)

The SU35 fighter aircraft that have been shot down more recently are probably performing protection duties for the SU34 bombers in lieu of the A50.

The SU35 has more advanced radar and missile capabilities and can track and simultaneously engage more targets than the SU34.

Russia is scraping the barrel in advance of the Russian GE, even though the result is pre-determined, and want to gain as much territory as possible while Ukraine is struggling for materiel. Russia hopes to underline their narrative to the “west” of the hopelessness of Ukraine’s efforts and stop supplies completely

Any pictures or confirmation of damage at the aircraft plant?  Had a scan of reports, Russia claims to have shot down a gazillion drones with no damage and Ukraine claim several successful hits

the ads are killing my browser again, taken me 3 attempts to write this ffs

Everything else is a bluff, If he uses a single tactical nuke in Ukraine he’s a global pariah and the few allies he has (mainly China) will be put under massive pressure to cut him off.

I’d go further and say that he’s already been warned, publicly, by China several times. The month before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine the five nuclear-weapon states issued a joint-statement that nuclear war must never be fought:

The international community, said Xi, should “jointly oppose the use of, or threats to use, nuclear weapons,” according to a statement carried by Xinhua, China’s state news agency. The world should also “advocate that nuclear weapons cannot be used, a nuclear war cannot be waged, in order to prevent a nuclear crisis” in Europe or Asia, Xi added. (4/11/2022) https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-jinping-warns-vladimir-putin-not-to-use-nuclear-arms-in-ukraine-olaf-scholz-germany-peace-talks/

And in March 2023

The Kremlin has denied a report that the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, had personally warned his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
“No, I can’t confirm it,” Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Wednesday when asked about a Financial Times report that said Xi delivered the message when he visited Moscow in March. (5/7/2023) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/05/kremlin-china-president-xi-jining-vladimir-putin-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-russia

And earlier this month

Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, responded to Putin’s remarks during a press conference on Friday.
“In January 2022, leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states issued a joint-statement, affirming that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” she said. “China believes that all nuclear weapon states need to embrace the idea of common security and uphold global strategic balance and stability.”
Mao continued: “Under the current circumstances, parties need to jointly seek de-escalation and lower strategic risks.” (1/3/2024) https://www.newsweek.com/china-issues-warning-nuclear-war-risks-1875130

800,000 suddenly doesn’t sound that many

Russia was burning through 20,000 artillery rounds per day in Nov 2022 and Ukraine 4000-7000 per day. 40 days for Russia at that rate 100+ for Ukraine??

An artillery barrel will lose range and accuracy after 10,000 rounds, so Ukraine’s numbers make sense

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/russia-ukraine-war-ammo-rcna56210

Pope calls for Ukraine to surrender,! WTAF !!

“clap the other cheek”

Pope calls for Ukraine to surrender,! WTAF !!

Good, that opens a possible route to wealth and untold riches by invading the Vatican, slaughtering all the religious lackeys and forcing the pope to raise the white flag and declare my Flying Spaghetti Monster religion as the one and only true religion to follow.

I’ll set off for the Vatican tonight after tea, I’ll let you know how I get on later in the week.

Pope calls for Ukraine to surrender,! WTAF !!

Old wizardy dude and full time cult leader in a weird dress says something stupid. Next thing he’ll be pardoning paedophilic priestly pariahs but that’s okay

#ReligionIsUtterBollocks

Pope calls for Ukraine to surrender,! WTAF!!

You may want to read up on the position of the Catholic Church during the Spanish civil war and the subsequent second world war. Not to mention various other South American dictatorships and their death squads

This is just business as usual for the Vatican. They’ve always had a somewhat relaxed, Co-operative arrangement with fascists

Not unlike the British Royal Family and the Thatcher regime.

Orban says Trump won’t fund Ukraine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68533351

.. two of Putin’s favourite idiots

Orban says Trump won’t fund Ukraine

wow that is so awful

In an interview with The News Agents Bannon said words to the effect of ‘two Slovakian countries fighting – why should I give a shit?’. He also had a bit of a rant at the numbers of American troops killed in Europe in ww2. 🤷

Let’s hope guff like that costs him the election.

Orban says Trump won’t fund Ukraine

We’ve known this for ages, Zelensky refused to play ball when Trump called him up wanting dirt on the Bidens (the infamous ‘perfect’ phone call that lead to his first impeachment) and Trump’s had it in for Ukraine ever since.

Add in the fact that Trump still seems to have some kind of weird school-boy crush on authoritarian strong-men in general and Putin in particular and this was always going to be the case.

creep

Trump brags that he would stop the war in 24 hours if he won. How? He could stop US funding in 24 hours, but is he thinking that Putin would agree to stop in exchange? Putin knows the funding will stop regardless, he might as well carry on and take all of Ukraine.

Trump brags that he would stop the war in 24 hours if he won. How? He could stop US funding in 24 hours, but is he thinking that Putin would agree to stop in exchange? 

putin declare peace, trump swans around like the big man, EU countries try to get back to normal, putin spends n years rearming, comes back then. If trump still around, there’ll be some kind of cooked up casus belli so trump can say ukraine were asking for it anyway. Trump tower in moscow greenlit at some point

That Bannon interview is crazy.

I wonder what kind of reception the pope will get if he ever visits Ukraine…. Didn’t he get flak for praising Russian youths and their heritage a while back, too?

He’s Argentinian, isn’t he? They’re batshit crazy.

+1

The only way Trump ‘ends’ the war in 24 hours is with Ukrainian capitulation.

Of course it won’t even be an ‘end’ we’ll still be left with a bitter and vengeful Putin who will want to punish anyone who helped Ukraine and he’ll be back for another go as soon as his mangled military can be rebuilt, maybe Moldova next?

It takes 2 sides to declare peace. Hell, even if Putin successfully invaded the whole of Ukraine and killed Zelenskyy, he will have a permanent crisis on his border. Constant insurgencies and factories being blown up and a nation that has a hatred of Russians and Russia that will go on for generations.

It won’t be a peace that Russians recognise, that’s for sure.

F**** you Tin of Poo.

Sweden and Finland join Nato’s biggest military exercise in decades

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68535762

Let’s hope guff like that costs him the election.

theres a big chunk of the electorate that fully agree with trump, theyve bought the bannon /Carlson/ maga/ putin line completely

I know that, I’m hoping it sways enough of the middle of the road voters away from him, that’s all.

channel 4 at the moment us a documentary film called 20 days in Mariupol

its not an be easy watch so far

So many questions:
Why did Orban say the thing about funding, not Trump?
Trump wins in November, not in post until Feb… what happens?
Trump goes to prison? What or who happens next?
US funding stops but Nato carries on I guess?
Macron / Pavel re troops in Ukraine – countering Trumps fund blocking comment
Speaker Johnson… whats his agenda?
German security leaks and Taurus ring exchange with the Uk…

A couple of days ago I watched a UN session debate Ukraine. Russia spoke, then every other country called them out, one after another. The Russian position after this was basically “whatever”. They really don’t actually GAS.

Three days to the Russian Presidential Election (15-17 March) and a loose alliance of Russians rebels have attacked border areas of Russia in the Kursk and Belgorod oblasts.

The region is significant because in 1918 the ethnic-Ukraine Soviet region was briefly part of Ukraine.

The Free(dom of*) Russia(n) Legion, Russian Volunteer Corps and the Sibir Battallion are identified in various SM posts and are Russian fighters who have fought with Ukraine’s forces but aren’t part of them. (*depends who translates)

They attacked Belgorod in May last year and fought for two days before crossing back to Ukraine; two days this time will take them to the eve of the Russian elections https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65681806

Russia spoke, then every other country called them out, one after another. The Russian position after this was basically “whatever”. They really don’t actually GAS.

Their entire strategy now is just brass neck it out and do everything they can to ensure Trump wins.

Why did Orban say the thing about funding, not Trump?

If Donald Trump did say that…BBC and CNN have both asked for clarity

Trump wins in November, not in post until Feb… what happens?

The US doesn’t vote for President (in the strict sense) . Officially nothing changes until the beginning of Jan when Congress is sworn in. The president is then determined (hence Jan 6th insurrection).  Joe Biden remains President until then

Trump goes to prison? What or who happens next?

Technically, I believe that he could still be President. Could he pardon himself??

US funding stops but Nato carries on I guess?

Hopefully Europe will have its act together. There is still $$$bn in the US PDA pot for arms from stock, but if that’s used the US can’t replace stock because of the impasse in Congress

Macron / Pavel re troops in Ukraine – countering Trumps fund blocking comment

I’m not sure what you’re asking here. It’s legal to have advisors rather than fighters in Ukraine (they think)

Speaker Johnson… whats his agenda?

Whatever Donald Trump wants it to be

German security leaks and Taurus ring exchange with the Uk…

I imagine that you hear more in Germany. Scholtz will cave eventually, he always does

Russia spoke, then every other country called them out, one after another.

I added up the times that Russia has used its position at the UN table to complain about Ukraine. They’ve raised motions on at least a dozen occasions (I can’t remember the number now). Ukraine doesn’t have a seat at the UN table but the response has been a universal, “Get out of Ukraine then”

Ukraine doesn’t have a seat at the UN table

Are you sure? Every time I watch they have a representative on the front row of the circle and a bit of Google Fu suggests Ukraine joined 24-10-45, the exact same day as Russian Federation.

Or am I mixing this up with the UN Security Council which is what I have been watching…

I assumed that you were talking about the UN Security Council, my bad…

Five permanent members:
China, France, Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States

Ten elected members:
Ukraine as elected member
1948-1949, 1984-1985, 2000-2001, 2016-2017

US funding stops but Nato carries on I guess?

The interesting bit is what Europe (and Asia for that matter) does in the event of Trump pulling out of NATO, what’ll be next? Trident? Supplies of spares for all those F35’s that everyone has bought? An truly isolationist USA will really shake everything up dramatically. Additionally, it doesn’t have to be all or nothing, Trumps all encompassing transactional approach would likely see him using other nations security as a bargaining chip, eg ‘accept this trade policy or your airforce is effectively grounded’. Getting rid of national defence industies in favour of buying US kit will not look like a smart move in this environment.

Ofc, the US military industrial complex won’t take this lying down, but what a horrible position to be in – relying on the personal enrichment of arms manufacturers.

As i’ve said earlier, any industrialised nation with a naughty neighbour looking at a world without a USA policing it will look to nukes.

As i’ve said earlier, any industrialised nation with a naughty neighbour looking at a world without a USA policing it will look to nukes.

Yep.  There have been open discussions in Germany about this recently, totally unthinkable just a few years ago, when even civilian nuclear energy was almost universally demonised there.  Countries like Germany, Japan, Australia, Canada and a few more undoubtedly have the capability to develop them quickly if they wanted to and in a US isolationist world they may feel the imperative to do so.  Arguably Ukraine, Taiwan and South Korea have a far more pressing need, and the scientific and industrial wherewithal and I would be astonished if they don’t at least have advanced contingency planning for it.  Interesting Wiki page on ‘nuclear latency’.

US isolationist world

Isn’t this what Lavrov / Putin et all are calling Multipolar as opposed to the current Rules Based Order?

https://www.ft.com/content/5a1a5d17-d37b-4242-8241-d81daa7467fc

On Trump’s transactional approach – a TV journalist summated pithily that his brand of business transaction is one that demands that the party on the other side of a deal with him, also feels like they have been subject to daylight robbery. That’ll be nice on a political and military level. I hope the EU and others take their own path and are planning on the assumption this is going to happen. They can’t get to November and think; ‘oh crap’.

Also, whether an accident or behind the lines activity, another transport plane gone, this time an Il-76:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-plane-crash-moscow-military-transport-b2511257.html

US Department of Defense announcement of weapons aid expected at 630pm UK-time

Relatively small, but significant content, inc ATACMS