UK Election!

I think election fatigue is setting in on this thread.

Reality is we’ve been debating politics for years under different threads.

It’s sort of inevitable, and we are reflecting what is going off in a seriously messed up landscape.

Plus constant onslaught on every outlet going.

I can recognise that Putin is good at what he has done (as was Hitler until his downfall) but that is very different than saying I admire them as that suggests I agree with what they have done as well as how successful they were at doing it.

I’m firmly middle class now, though bought up in a council house. My wife is from a lower middle class East London Conservative family, we are both centre left voters who will vote labour, with a green tilt to our politics. Both kids are firmly on the left of politics, with my daughter highly into trans rights and very pro Palestine. She is still voting labour though as there isn’t the perfect one issue major party.

Polling expert Sir John Curtice on Reform and Lib Dem gains

Curtis quoting average figures from several polls.

LAB 41%

CON 20%

REF 16%

LD    12%

Popping those into the FT seat predictor gives REF 10 seats and LD the official opposition.

Different figures here though

Resulting in:

to go back to PR for a minute – this is the sort of thing that deals with the far right parties.  remember “win” in PR democracies like France means biggest party.

France’s four main leftwing parties have agreed to form a “New Popular Front” (NPF) to contest the snap election, as the far-right leader Marine Le Pen said she would seek a “national unity government” if her National Rally (RN) wins.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/14/french-leftwing-parties-popular-front-contest-snap-election

Le Pen is around 35% of the vote – in the UK that would give her a majority more than likely.  As it is she remains a long way from Power.  Same in the Netherlands.  Geert Wilders got 25% of the vote but “won”  I can’t remember yet if he managed to cobble a coalition yet or not.  I knew he accepted he would not become PM

Remember both of these ” far right” parties actually sit in a very similar place to the tories.  So PR has prevented their equivalents of Johnson and Truss from having majorities – instead they remain a minority party.

So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a ‘majority’?

I can recognise that Putin is good at what he has done

There’s a difference between what he has done (created a fragile dictatorship that’s burned a massive amount of wealth, killed thousands, enriched a venal elite and prostrated Russia before China) and what he intended to do (make Russia great again).

But “say what you want about Hitler…” statements are always going to be stupid or fascist sympathising.

Not entirely sure debating the merits of the effectiveness of despots is even a thing for anyone with a **** brain cell.

“Yeah, Putin is an excellent c***, but not quite in Pol Pot territory.”

So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a ‘majority’?

Politics changes.  You will have maybe 6 parties and for any one party to get a outright majority is rare.  So even if you have a coalition of the hard right and centre right they will still struggle to gain and keep a majority.  Smaller parties still get representation.  So its highly unlikely any right wing ( or left for that matter) would be able to take the country “full right wing”  As above – PR would have prevented Johnson and Truss.  PR politics tends to coalesce around a centre

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People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class orgin, typically bankers and barristers.

I think this is the problem with politics as a whole in the UK these days. It seen as a career move rather than a need to fight for your beliefs for the vast majority , certainly front line, MPs.

France isn’t proper PR, it’s a two round system which has its own distortions. If it were proper PR the RN would have a third of the seats in the assembly. As it is they have 32/577

Ta educator.

People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner

Or indeed Tony Benn 😉

I didn’t take it as criticism and I’m quite enjoying the discussion – reminds me of the dinner table growing up.

People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class orgin, typically bankers and barristers.

Just for clarity I have no idea why I wrote that! I certainly didn’t mean to!

Things might not be great with today’s Labour Party but it isn’t so bad that a Labour MP is now typically an ex-banker!

What I meant to write was : People like Eric Heffer and Dennis Skinner, now they are overwhelmingly from a totally different class origin, typically academics and barristers.

In my defence I was being harassed to get off my phone as we apparently had a bus to catch.

PR would have prevented Johnson and Truss

PR would have prevented Brexit. But I’ve already grumbled on this thread about Blair reneging on implementing the Jenkins Commission recommendations.

In my defence I was being harassed to get off my phone as we apparently had a bus to catch.

#NotABot – proof of humanity there I think

just waiting to bring up his record as a defence lawyer in defending terror suspects

IANAL but aren’t they compelled to defend the cases that come through their door? Was it a conscious decision or an obligation?

On to private schooling; interesting numbers on More or Less this evening

1/ average UK state school class size is 22.something (22.6, I think…) – obviously varies and some subjects, like compulsory English or Maths are bigger than say Physics, but that’s the average.

2/ Private school population is 7% of the school population ie 93:7 ratio

3/ Survey suggests 5% migration of private school pupils into state school if VAT is levied.

4/ By my maths that’s a 0.35% increase in the state school numbers, so 93.35:6.65

5/ So that would in essence move a 22.6 pupil class into 22.6 x 93.35/93 = 22.7. Virtually no difference in class sizes and well absorbable by fluctuating birth years as it is.

6/ In fact there’s a high birth year hump at about 13/14 years old right now (like a snake eating a football) that will move through; primary school numbers are actually declining and that in turn increases capacity. Nett result that state schools can esily absorb that number.

So the study suggests 95% of 7% = 6.65% of UK pupils will pay the extra VAT; 0.35% will transfer to state school. So 1/300 is disadvantaged – if indeed a state school education is really that disadvantageous.

FWIW we mulled it for my two, but couldn’t afford (and at the time I was on a high salary by any reasonable measure) then appealed state school place unsuccessfully and ended up at our 3rd choice. Their GCSEs might have been better but have been perfectly adequate to go onto 6th form college choices and subsequently to Uni for the eldest. And personally I reckon are more rounded people as a result of the experience compared to primary peers that went on via catchment or paying to ‘better’ Guildford schools.

IANAL but aren’t they compelled to defend the cases that come through their door?

Yes

zippykona
Full Member
Apart from them not liking foreigners does anyone know what else Deform stand for?

Right from UKIP forward, Farage and the various iterations of party he’s led have been AGAINST things far more than for… anything.

It’s a malicious protest party that attracts people that are upset with the status quo and want very simple answers to very complex issues.

As we have seen, that never ends well.

Farage is just Putin’s useful idiot, creating division and rabble-rousing for roubles….he couldn’t give a flying f#ck about the UK,

He doesn’t get enough scrutiny for his Russian ties

Frankly a little disappointed/sickened  people are doing the ” Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder” schtick – you’re perilously close to condoning the horror

Nigel Farage has a history of being singularly unimpressed by his own party’s policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jan/24/nigel-farage-wrote-foreward-ukip-drivel-manifesto

“I didn’t read it. It was drivel, 486 pages of drivel”

Nigel Farage doesn’t need policies, that’s for the deary establishment parties. All you need to know about Nigel Farage is that he doesn’t like foreigners (apart for Germans – he married one of those) and he knows how to hold a pint of beer like a proper geezer.

What’s not to like?

Frankly a little disappointed/sickened people are doing the ” Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder” schtick

I mentioned Putin yesterday I think?

He’s a **** so hope it wasnt me that’s posted something inflammatory without realising.

I think I mentioned that he’s almost definitely keeping in our elections and everyone elses I think?

@poopscoop you’re one of the good guys from what I’ve been reading (over the last months and years) so not you

No need to name names. The lessons we should be learning is how to recognise the kind of psychological manipulation these shape-shifters use to skew opinion and cause division and pretend we are not better off in this together

Theotherjonv – yes compelled to, but it’s already been used as an attack line both by the press and Sunak.

Starmer isn’t in a fair fight, so is understandably very wary of giving the attack dogs any meat.

Nigel Farage is that he doesn’t like foreigners (apart for Germans – he married one of those

Didn’t they separate?

@ susepic

No problem, just thought I might have lit a tinder box without knowing which wouldn’t have been my intention. Lol

Reform in second place in the polls. So we still want PR?

If we had PR in previous elections, and all those UKIP etc. voters had some representation, we might have had a better chance at sorting out the issues they care about, through reasonable compromise agreed between politicians.

Instead they got ignored, but that doesn’t make people or issues go away. It snowballed, and here we are now.

Nigel Farage is that he doesn’t like foreigners (apart for Germans – he married one of those
Didn’t they separate?

Yes and it was rumoured that he had a fling with a French MEP

Didn’t they separate?

Yes he lives with his mistress I believe. But I think we safely assume that Farage is not prejudice against Germans if he married one.

And another German Nigel Farage is apparently quite impressed with is Adolf Hitler. He found him “hypnotic”.

However as a general rule he doesn’t like foreigners very much. Nor those seeking asylum. Despite the fact that his ancestors came to the UK as asylum seekers.

He doesn’t like the British much either given his “contract” proposal and what that would do to folk living in the UK.

Allegedly the Nigerians like him – or their botnets do.

Aftee the MayBot the NigeBot?

Despite the fact that his ancestors came to the UK as asylum seekers.

It hadn’t occurred to me that Farage is a Huguenot name… but as soon as I read what you posted, it jumped out at me. Thanks.

A Reform takeover would allow the Tories to market themselves as a “new party” 5 years from now. A handy way to absolve themselves of the last 14 years.

So if a country went full right wing, would PR prevent or advance a left wing party to be able to become a ‘majority’?

The question is how would did they achieve that? If by everyone voting for them then by definition nope but if it was some dodgy deal with someone who is conservative but not full out fascist, for convenience and to say hi to Godwins law, lets call them Hindenburg then also nope.

If it was the current leader went full right wing after getting elected as somewhat in the middle but still respected democracy and so their opponents didnt have an unfortunate liking for open windows on the 20th floor then possibly yes.

As with the Russia example PR only works when the people currently in charge do more than pretend to play by the rules.

I think this was mentioned in the thread but not linked to I believe?

Polling expert Sir John Curtice on Reform and Lib Dem gains

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd11jpqgzp4o

Frankly a little disappointed/sickened  people are doing the ” Hitler or Putin are good guys except for the mass murder” schtick – you’re perilously close to condoning the horror

You need to read what I actually said.  I clearly didn’t say that I think Putin and Hitler are/were “good guys”, I said if you look at what they achieved they were pretty successful (up to a point).

How they did it and what they did is nothing but evil but they did it.  For anyone to say they admire Putin based on that means they are in a pretty bad place themselves, i.e. Farage.  I wasn’t defending him I was pointing out that his own defence of what he said just makes it worse.

seems the Dirty Digger  may have “seen” the wind of change

I think this was mentioned in the thread but not linked to I believe?

Yes that’s me. The link is there along with another one (both BBC) showing slightly different figures.

Yes that’s me. The link is there along with another one (both BBC) showing slightly different figures.

Ah sorry, I obviously wasn’t playing attention!👍

Is it physically possible for the tories to boot Sunak out, get Lord FarFar in and amalgamate the 2 parties before the vote?