UK Election!

Still can’t get my head around pro-EU left of centre types wanting to give Farage the single thing he prays for when he wakes up in the morning. Being the official opposition would be a massive stepping stone to inevitably being in govt one day. You’re all mental. 🙂

Nigel Farage does not pray to become the junior partner in a coalition government.   In fact, that would be his nightmare.  As has been shown in Nordic countries, once the far right get into government they hit a brick wall in terms of popularity.  Suddenly the ‘simple solutions’ and empty promises are exposed.

What Nigel Farage prays for is that no one implements any kind of PR.  He knows that with a fractured Tory party and people severely disillusioned with 5 years of Labour austerity (that is definitely not austerity according to Labour) he only has to persuade around 1 in 3 voters to vote for him and he gets to run the whole circus.  And remember, 1 in 3 voters is not the same as 1 in 3 people.

You might think having Farage as leader of the opposition* or as a junior coalition partner would be bad. I agree, it would be.

However, I absolutely guarantee that having PM Farage in charge for 5 years would be far far worse and may not even be recoverable from given that the last 5 years have shown the ‘good chap principle’ of government doesn’t really work if you have complete turds in charge.

*even though leader of the opposition doesn’t really exist in PR in the same way it does in FPTP

His new Italian host literally recoiled in horror when he went to greet her

No, she didn’t.

If you watch the video, she’s leaning back laughing at something he said to her.  The still taken from the video is out of context, and the Guardian’s headline is misleading to say the least.

Has there been much discussion around voter ID and how it will play in the overall turnout numbers?

The government have added some more ID methods that can be used to vote. Guess what they have in common with each other? That’s right… held by older people only.

Nigel Farage does not pray to become the junior partner in a coalition government.

Farage’s ideal place is the campaigning and grifting circuit where he can slag everything off, give some populist “solutions” but actually do no work.

He’d be found out in minutes if he actually had to do anything. Much like his time as MEP where he gave some rousing speeches, collected his expenses but never turned up to a single meeting he was supposed to. What was that Committee or Commission he was supposed to be chairing? Fisheries? One meeting out of 42 that he actually attended.

****.

I won’t be massively surprised if Lab try and bring an ID card scheme back in (which of course would solve the voter ID issue).

Oh,and this popped up the other day ,I almost posted it in the >Stuff that makes you disproportionately cross<

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ddj1z8n8go

Farage’s dream team 🫤

Personally I want less direct democracy and more delegated democracy

That’s pretty much what I meant, as in a ‘more direct’ form to what we have now. Something along the lines of the trade union model. A combination of delegatory democracy at national and region levels and direct democracy locally would be far better than what we have now or any PR system.

It’s all pie in the sky though. The only game in town right now should be to deny Farage power by any means.

No, she didn’t.

She didn’t exactly recoil in horror. Although the body language was, shall we say, different with him compared to other leaders:

Rishi looked like a creepy uncle getting handsy at a wedding

Has there been much discussion around voter ID and how it will play in the overall turnout numbers?

Don’t think so but I do know via social media that my local mosque is organising sessions to help people apply for voter ID.

The Muslim Vote is treating this election extremely seriously because of the current slaughter going on in Gaza, which western politicians are mostly either supporting or are fairly indifferent to.

Their strategy is clear – if you didn’t vote for a ceasefire we won’t be voting for you.

Unfortunately they can’t seem to decide who to vote for – Green, LibDem, Workers Party, or Independent.

Currently locally the LibDem candidates are gaining support from Muslim voters, although with a strong challenge from the Greens.

There are 4 parliamentary constituencies in Croydon and as of yesterday the Muslim Vote is backing the LibDems in 3 and the Greens in 1. But not everyone is happy as it has excluded one good LibDem candidate, so it’s being challenged.

I think it fair to say that the Muslim vote as well as the progressive vote is all over the place this election. I suspect that lessons will be learnt, hopefully, for the next general election.

The Conservative Party may be in a hole, but the ideology will survive them and be represented by an even worse entity.   Haw Haw terrifies me,  remember his so called party is his private property and can be used to take over the established party – which is transparently the objective.   The comment of impregnating the husk with frogspawn was spot on, and FPtP can give these monsters an unchallenged majority in future.

Moscow calling, Moscow calling

Exactly this. It was pretty apparent from way back that Farage was looking in the long term for the chance to wear the hollowed out corpse of the Tory Party like a skinsuit, perhaps not immediately, but once he saw the opportunity he went all-in with his leadership/candidacy.

It now seems clear that he has already been working behind the scenes to infiltrate the party with several candidates already effectively switching sides while still standing for the Tories. Wouldn’t be surprised if he relaunches using the ‘National Conservative’ branding.

Has anyone taken a deep dive into his current funding stream to see what lies under that particular rock?

Can we call “him” Lord FarFar from now on?

if you didn’t vote for a ceasefire we won’t be voting for you

Didn’t all the Labour MPs vote for a ceasefire on 21st Feb? It was all a mess that day… but Labour put forward and voted in support of…

“That this House believes that an Israeli ground offensive in Rafah risks catastrophic humanitarian consequences and therefore must not take place; notes the intolerable loss of Palestinian life, the majority being women and children; condemns the terrorism of Hamas who continue to hold hostages; supports Australia, Canada and New Zealand’s calls for Hamas to release and return all hostages and for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, which means an immediate stop to the fighting and a ceasefire that lasts and is observed by all sides, noting that Israel cannot be expected to cease fighting if Hamas continues with violence and that Israelis have the right to the assurance that the horror of 7 October 2023 cannot happen again; therefore supports diplomatic mediation efforts to achieve a lasting ceasefire; demands that rapid and unimpeded humanitarian relief is provided in Gaza; further demands an end to settlement expansion and violence; urges Israel to comply with the International Court of Justice’s provisional measures; calls for the UN Security Council to meet urgently; and urges all international partners to work together to establish a diplomatic process to deliver the peace of a two-state solution, with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable Palestinian state, including working with international partners to recognise a Palestinian state as a contribution to rather than outcome of that process, because statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people and not in the gift of any neighbour.”

Farage was on the BBC election thing this morning – I watched a few mins while stretching after a turbo session.

He was very sweaty. He looked a bit under pressure from that point of view, but didn’t come across like he was under pressure when he spoke. Maybe they just shine a massive set light towards the people they don’t like.

He said several times that he wasn’t launching a manifesto, but was launching a contract with the country. It annoyed me that the presenters didn’t pull him up on this. He’s not launching a contract. It’s not a binding document that holds him to account; just a list of things that Reform will try to do.

He also got a few digs in on Rishi with the whole private boarding school, banker thing and neither of the presenter’s commented on the fact that he was being a bit hypocritical given that he also used to be a banker.  Grrrr.

neither of the presenter’s commented on the fact that he was being a bit hypocritical given that he also used to be a banker.

And he was also privately educated at Dulwich College

Didn’t all the Labour MPs vote for a ceasefire on 21st Feb? It was all a mess that day… but Labour put forward and voted in support of…

Yes I believe they did. The Muslim Vote isn’t referring to that vote. They are referring to the situation in the 6 months before that vote, in which thousands, including children, were killed.

I think it fair to say that the Muslim vote as well as the progressive vote is all over the place this election. I suspect that lessons will be learnt, hopefully, for the next general election.

We’ve been saying that for the last three elections (about the progressive vote).

My only explanation is that Reform UK is a fairly natural home for disaffected Tories, and there has definitely been some very unhappy Tory voters in the last couple of years!

However some Labour voters now seem to have been attracted to Reform UK by the “Nigel Farage” factor. I suspect that the fact that Farage has, unlike Starmer, an actual personality is an important factor in this.

You’ve also got to acknowledge  that the Labour vote is typically made up of the sort of academic lefties that get into politics at uni, and the trade union / working class lefties.  What wins over voters in London will be very different to what wins votes in red wall seats like Stoke or Preston.

Part of the reason we’re in this whole Austerity and Brexit mess is that the latter groups feel completely disenfranchised and ignored by the former that actually end up running the party.  The appeal of Reform is that they listen to what people say they want, which wins them votes.  Those votes don’t have to slowly move through a whole spectrum of Starmer, Lib Dems, Conservative to get there, they’re just moving. Unfortunately Reform and the RW press are far better at convincing people what they want than the academic side of the left is.

We’ve been saying that for the last three elections (about the progressive vote).

The difference in this election is that for many people a vote for the Labour Party is seen simply as an anti-Tory,  not a progressive vote.

Yup TINAS, the Labour Party is now seen as a middle-class party, which is of course exactly what it is.

The interesting thing though is that until Farage announced that his conscience wouldn’t allow him to keep out of this election Reform UK was not noticeably taking votes from Labour, only from the Tories.

All the opinion polls were showing an easy and overwhelming vote for Starmer’s Labour Party in the so-called Red Wall seats.

If that is in anyway changing it must surely be directly connected to Nigel Farage.

I reiterate that people need to be won over by solid policies otherwise many voters will be simply use personalities as their way of choosing who to vote for.

Personally I think Nigel Farage is a **** but I can’t deny that listening to him talking bollocks for 5 minutes is a tad more interesting and entertaining than listening to Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer.

Lib Dems called for a ceasefire in the 12th of November and have stood by that stance since.

I suspect that Starmer was very nervous about being seen a ‘pro-terrorist’ after such accusations were so stuck so successfully to Corbyn and therefore adopted a the fairly pro-Israeli stance in the immediate aftermath of the Oct 7th atrocities.

Of course now Israeli actions in Gaza over the interveening 6 months have swung the pendulum of public sympathy back in the other direction and, since we don’t seem to like it when our politicians ever change their minds he’s been left on a bit of sticky wicket.

You’ve also got to acknowledge  that the Labour vote is typically made up of the sort of academic lefties….

Post of the thread. 👏

Reform and the RW press are far better at convincing people what they want than the academic side of the left is.

This is because they promote simplistic answers to complex problems. Fractional reserve banking? A financial system which is effectively a Ponzi scheme? Government money as debt? A legal, and a medieval land-distribution system based on the Norman conquest? A corrupt monarchy which liquidates their deceased subject’s assets to pay for upgrades to their airbnb lets? What the **** are you on about? It’s those immigrants coming over who are the reason you can’t get a doctor appointment for your daughter, etc., etc. When the “academic left” proposed actual policies such as land reform that would start to reverse centuries of inequality, they’re effectively assassinated politically by the oligarch-billionaire press. They’re organised, they’re extremely well funded and they’re winning.

Rishi and Meloni gave off “work hubby/work wifey” vibes.

FPTP is a great way of denying fascists power.

Oh aye? How’s that working out in Belarus (the only other European country to use FPTP in legislative elections)? Belaya Rus has an absolute majority in the upper house and a plurality in the lower house. “It has no actual ideology outside of absolute support for Lukashenko.” Since 1996, “Lukashenko has … presided over an authoritarian government and has been labeled by the media as “Europe’s last dictator”.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Representatives_(Belarus)

I suspect that Starmer was very nervous about being seen a ‘pro-terrorist’

Perhaps Starmer’s zionist sympathies also influenced his decision to publicly support the actions of Netanyahu and his far-right government, who knows?

Sticking those latest YouGov figures into the FT seat calculator still gives Labour a handsome majority, CON and REF  a handful each and LD framing the official opposition.

Post of the thread.

Loving the idea that 32% of the active electorate is composed of bearded geography lecturers and cloth cap-wearing wheeltappers fresh up from t’pit.

Oh aye? How’s that working out in Belarus

You can’t compare Belarus – a dictatorship, and UK Parliament as somehow equal or equivilent, it’s silly. Russia uses PR, I don’t think adopting that voting system would cause the country to become a mafia state either.

How’s that working out in Belarus

Who GAS about Belarus? I’m talking about the UK, and whether by design or accident we’ve been very good at marginalising fascists to date. That’s changing now though and would be massively accelerated if we had PR. By all means lets have PR when the likes of Farage are a footnote in history but until then lets not give him/them what they want.

This is because they promote simplistic answers to complex problems.

Or maybe it’s because they speak in words that working people can understand and don’t display the superiority and snobbery that is a hallmark of many progressive liberals? This forum is a case in point, how many times have we heard about stupid working class people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote or have their say in ‘complex’ issues?

Adolf Hitler won the 1932 general election with just 33% of the vote.

If you support first-past-the-post you are practically a Nazi imo.

You can’t compare Belarus – a dictatorship, and UK Parliament as somehow equal or equivilent, it’s silly.

No, but FPTP allows massive majorities if a very small percentage of the population votes for a particular party and the rest of the vote is split among others.

Also, the Tories have shown over the last few years just how ill equipped the UK parliamentary system is to deal with someone who is willing to ignore the ‘good chap’ system that it has been relying on up until now.

Just imagine the fun Farage could have if he gets 30% of the vote (based on 65% turnout).  With FPTP you are gambling that no more than 20% of the population are stupid enough to vote for the ****.

This is because they promote simplistic answers to complex problems.

Yup & sadly cos most people aren’t interested in politics – they don’t have time to look up from just surviving to notice much difference. They just know it’s shit & think all politicians are the same.

As soon as someone says we can fix your life they listen, people aren’t interested in the minute details.

It’s a legacy of an education system that doesn’t during the school years educate kids in politics.

I remember when I was at school we had mock elections around 1990 – every single person who stood as a candidate was bullied mercilessly, that’s how we see politicians. As soon as someone claims to be like us & not them it’s an easy vote winner.

Or maybe it’s because they speak in words that working people can understand and don’t display the superiority and snobbery that is a hallmark of many progressive liberals?

Hmm, so only ‘working people’ have to deal with superiority and snobbery?  Interesting.

I only really have a problem with it if those words are, ‘It’s all the brown people’s fault so let’s get rid of them’ and people actually go for that.  But then that’s not something that only happens with ‘working people’ so I’m not sure what your point is.

This forum is a case in point, how many times have we heard about stupid working class people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote or have their say in ‘complex’ issues?

Would you like a sword to battle this strawman or will you be OK just pummeling it with your fists?

This forum is a case in point, how many times have we heard about stupid working class people who shouldn’t be allowed to vote or have their say in ‘complex’ issues?

I say that quite often but don’t include the words “working class” as I don’t discriminate.

Maybe stupid is harsh but what do you call someone who thinks Reform are the answer to their problems?

What do you call someone with very little money who votes Tory time after time even after seeing the outcome of them voting tory?

If you really want to get to the nub of broken politics, then I’d suggest that starting with reforming  MP candidate selection would do more for proper representation. The vast majority of our current and future MPs will have been actually selected by a small (tiny in comparison to the wider constituency) group of very politically active people in their local party. People that are more likely to hold more extreme views than the general population. Until you deal with that problem, shifting the numbers of them at parliament a bit, is just shuffling the deckchairs.

If you really want to get to the nub of broken politics, then I’d suggest that starting with reforming  MP candidate selection would do more for proper representation. The vast majority of our current and future MPs will have been actually selected by a small (tiny in comparison to the wider constituency) group of very politically active people in their local party. People that are more likely to hold more extreme views than the general population. Until you deal with that problem, shifting the numbers of them at parliament a bit, is just shuffling the deckchairs.

Hey, if you want to go down the Sortition road I am very much down for that.  We think it’s absolutely fine for jury trials so I’m not sure why people are so against it for government.

But until then we have to accept that politics is going to attract people who want to be politicians no matter what the voting system. So let’s at least get a voting system that more closely reflects the way people actually vote.

Would you like a sword to battle this strawman or will you be OK just pummeling it with your fists?

If you are genuinely unaware of the validity of Daz’s claim it simply emphasizes just how bad the problem is on here.

You can’t even see it ffs.

Who GAS about Belarus

I think it’s a good counterexample to the claim that

FPTP is a great way of denying fascists power.

There’s only two countries in Europe that use FPTP for parliaments: the UK and Belarus. One of them is a parliamentary democracy and the other is a dictatorship. FPTP has at best at 50% success rate in “denying fascists power”. That’s not “great”. In fact it’s pretty rubbish…

…or maybe in fact the voting system just isn’t that determinative of much.

If you are genuinely unaware of the validity of Daz’s claim it simply emphasizes just how bad the problem is on here.

Well, if it’s happening all the time then finding a couple of quotes to illustrate it shouldn’t be too difficult, should it?

Or maybe you could start by explaining what he meant by ‘working people’.  I suspect I know what he means but it’s such a vague catch all term it could mean literally anything (except the unemployed although in this case it probably also includes a significant number of unemployed or underemployed people).