UK Election!

@politecameraaction – I wasn’t defending Scotland (or the SNP) – I was challenging the claim that there was an objective measure of how secondary education systems were performing.  PISA is a measure of how smart the output is – but it can’t surely be the only measure (and I take your point that people may have chosen to avoid other measures for good or bad reasons), and its not a measure of how good the system is.  IF the system is crap but the starting point was better; or the system is crap but the parents are more engaged; or the system is crap but the parents have more money to pay for private tutors to shore it up then the outcome is likely to be better in spite of the system.  If your sampling approach is biased (and presumably PISA don’t have a good way to sample the pupils who just don’t turn up!) you are likely to think its better – or looked at another way, if you improve attendance from the less successful but keep the system the same then your results will trend downwards (and the corollary – if you give up on the “slackers” then come test day, you only have better pupils there!).  And then as with all metrics there is the risk that you focus your activity on improving the metric.  e.g. if PISA has an emphasis on STEM then you neglect humanities, if PISA is about the performance of a 15 yr old then you steer towards that learning at 14/15 but do less to embed it for the 16-18 yr olds so they leave having gained less.

My comment about “drones churned out under parental pressure” was because the top countries in PISA are Singapore, Macau, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea (curiously Ireland does very well in reading).  Is that the model of education we aspire towards?  Is an educational system that measures success on independent academic skills in three subject areas the priority?  If education is assumed to be a tool for economic growth is it important that the “workers” can work well with each other in teams?   Do we look at the German or Norwegian education systems and think – I’m glad my kids don’t go to school there (both ranked worse than the UK)?

What the PISA scores tell you nothing about is the disparity in results across the population.  To me that is a much better metric of the system.  I don’t know how it varies, people across england seem to go to quite some lengths to get pupils in better schools (and in Scotland pay more for houses because they are close to schools with better reputations) so we at least perceive that the system is not even for all.

Is it just not ‘sexy’?

Breakfasts in schools. I presume/hope that’ll be in the Labour manifesto.

The stuff for adults can wait. Intervention for kids needed yesterday.

TJ – does Robin Harpers defection to Labour affect your decision at all?

Scotroutes – it reinforces my feeling that the greens have lost their way.  I still cannot vote for a party that endorses brexit and lies about it

Uncle Jezza – I can see you in some red trousers and a tweed jacket, so maybe….

Now now binners – I have not gone senile yet :-)

I am clearly very immature. :)

Can I confirm this is NOT Jonathan Gullis campaigning in a children’s play park in Stoke.
Those who are suggesting it is, are both immature and unfunny.
?pic.twitter.com/Bv1VVtOz84

— Sir Michael Take CBE (@MichaelTakeMP) June 13, 2024

Watching the local news this morning, there were a couple of fisherman being interviewed regarding the upcoming election.

Both were massively disenfranchised. Both said the Tories had let them down, & they’d been lied to.

& both said that Labour wouldn’t have been any better – cos they’re the same (not sure how they have been able to view the alternate universe where Labour were in power) but I think it’s people like this that will see Reform as their home to bring about change.

They’re the people  that Labour need to get onside.

That Argentinian is as useless a tool as his chainless chainsaw.

Is it just me or does this election campaign feel like it’s been going on since the Dawn of time?

If you want to measure the success of an education system then a value-added analysis rather than outcomes would give a more accurate picture.

binners
Full Member
Is it just me or does this election campaign feel like it’s been going on since the Dawn of time?

It already seems an age ago that Sunak risked drowning outside number 10 in the rain!

Only one party has demonstrated themselves to be utterly shit and callous along with it in the last 14years.

As TJ mentioned, he lives in Scotland, where the SNP has been in power for 16 years, and has proven itself to be utterly shit and callous in government. So that’s two parties at least.

As TJ mentioned, he lives in Scotland, where the SNP has been in power for 16 years

They’ve been in power in the Scottish Parliament, but this isn’t a Holyrood election it’s a Westminster one where the SNP were not in power.  Therefore you need to think about the whole UK (which I appreciate might be tough for some Scots ;) )

Now thats just not so PCA – the SNP / Green government has done good stuff for the poor the sick and the needy from reduced taxes and increased benefits to better rental protections to free tertiary education

Interestingly Binners there is no sign of an election campaign here at all.  Nothing.

Interestingly Binners there is no sign of an election campaign here at all. Nothing.

Not a lot of effort round here currently either.

Few libdem posters in windows and thats about it. No recycling through the door yet.

Has anyone seen any vote Conservative boards in anyone’s gardens? I’ve seen a few Labour & a few Lib Dem, but not a single Conservative one.
This in a mainly Tory stronghold.

If Starmer compares himself with Thatcher and they’re touting trickle down in their manifesto then it’s no wonder fishermen and many others see little difference between them. Fortunately, our LP candidate has campaigned for a ceasefire and election calculus gives her a 100% nailed on chance.

I’m on the other side of Edinburgh to TJ and I’ve not been leafleted at all yet, nor seen any other signs of the election, except for receiving my polling card yesterday.

Yeah this campaign is dragging on. I think partly because it feels like a foregone conclusion, the main contenders and the areas of policy focus are pretty close to each other, so there’s mainly wrangling over small details. I was desperate for the election, and will be happy when (hopefully) the Tories are eviscerated. I’ll enjoy election night itself, but based on what I’ve heard so far, i’m not filled with hope for the future, sadly. Maybe the Labour manifesto will unleash interesting ideas, but it doesn’t look likely.

I’m more looking forward to watching some football, and the Tour (Divide and de France), and some Olympics. Maybe just need a good sleep and get out on the right side of bed! :-)

PrinceJohn
Full Member
Has anyone seen any vote Conservative boards in anyone’s gardens? I’ve seen a few Labour & a few Lib Dem, but not a single Conservative one.
This in a mainly Tory stronghold.

Fair amount of labour ones round here, no Tory ones that I’ve seen (tbh, massive shy Tory syndrome going one I think) and one house with a Reform poster in every window.😁

I think we might just get our Tory MP out. We flipped to a Labour council last year after years of Tory so I’m hopeful.

Is it just me or does this election campaign feel like it’s been going on since the Dawn of time?

For me it’s a combination. On the one hand I am enjoying the daily Tory blunders so much that I fear that it is going too fast and all that enjoyment will come to an abrupt halt.

But on the other hand Electoral Armageddon Day for the Tories can’t come soon enough for me.

I’m in a safe labour seat.

Only pamphlet is from the green candidate. Said green candidate is someone I’ve had professional dealings with and he’s a smug arsehole, so he’ll never get my vote.

Annoyingly there are better green party reps in this area but they never get a look in.

Lib dems, reform and Tories are ghosts

The Labour manifesto will promise to not raise corporation tax

I think they are missing a trick there. “We are not raising personal taxation but raising tax on large corps” is, I reckon, a vote winner with the general population.

Has anyone seen any vote Conservative boards in anyone’s gardens?

Historically a LibDem/Tory swing seat here, usually plenty of both boards out. I haven’t seen one Tory board this time.

I saw a Murray (Lab) poster in Morningside yesterday – that is one so far.    What is very striking is that both here in SE Scotland and in Northumberland, I have yet to see one of those traditional big (only they can afford them) Conservative posters in a field.

“We are not raising personal taxation but raising tax on large corps”

Corporation Tax isn’t the only tax you can make corporations pay. Windfall taxes etc can be more targeted, as part of a gov strategy of intervention to change market behaviour not just to claw money back.

Has anyone seen any vote Conservative boards in anyone’s gardens? I’ve seen a few Labour & a few Lib Dem, but not a single Conservative one.

Not in any gardens, but I’ve seen quite a few big Conservative boards in farmer’s fields round here (South Cambs).

A damning indictment of the consequences of a staggeringly cynical Conservative policy decision in 2010

this isn’t a Holyrood election it’s a Westminster one where the SNP were not in power.

Well sure – but you were talking about parties that have or have not shown themselves to be shit in government. It’s the same party. Does the SNP get to disclaim its terrible track record in Holyrood when standing for election to Westminster? Do the Tories get to disclaim their track record in Westminster when standing for election to Holyrood?

Interestingly Binners there is no sign of an election campaign here at all.  Nothing.

Same near me. Ive had a couple of leaflets and seen max 3 posters. Obviously evidence of English chauvinism and the elite media echo chamber’s tribal hatred of…London? Or maybe elections just aren’t won or lost by posters in windows any more.

So, is Starmer channeling Margaret Thatcher or Liz Truss with his ‘Wealth creation is all that matters’ manifesto launch?

The painful truth is that there is no crock of gold magic money tree.

We can improve our position as a nation only by working together to create greater wealth.

We cannot do it by each fighting for a bigger share of the existing cake.

The cake is too small; the fight too damaging; and the result, impoverishment, cynicism, and conflict.

It will be the job of the next Conservative Labour government to set the economy on a new course of expansion.

Just to be charitable, I’m going to go with Thatcher.

Stolen from the Guardian, btw.

There’s some heavy Lib Dem campaigning here in this Tory stronghold, although a Tory placard appeared last night.

im so angry that anyone in my villiage would suggest voting Tory that I’ve gone to dig out my sharpies… just not sure if that’s a very grown up thing to do.

What the PISA scores tell you nothing about is the disparity in results across the population.

They do, though, if you read them, and in particular they speak about how rich kids do significantly better than poor kids, which is a disgrace all across the UK. They also show that Scotland’s secondary education system has been declining steadily against European peers since 2008 – when the SNP took power from Labour in Scotland. Those two facts are not unconnected.

Between that year and 2012, it said, Scottish scores in those two subjects were well above the OECD average, but they have since declined, while reading performance has remained around the same level.

The figures also show a wide gap between the richest and poorest – measuring between 77 and 91 Pisa points – in all three subjects, similar to the average for the UK as a whole.

https://www.glasgowtimes.co.uk/news/scottish-news/23927117.scottish-education-long-term-decline-since-snp-takeover/

So, is Starmer channeling Margaret Thatcher or Liz Trusswith his ‘Wealth creation is all that matters’ manifesto launch?

This bloke gets less credible every day.

It’s clear his brain is programmed by things being shouted at him via focus groups and poor advice, and what he thinks the audience will like – “my dad is a tool maker.”

Went down well last night.

I mean wealth creation FFS.  How he’s convinced many people who have suffered the arse end of the miserable economic disaster that was Thatcher – somehow is NOW a good idea – is an embarrassment to moderate analysis.

This Labour government, unless they drop something that makes economic sense are totally doomed, probably quicker than we think.

Growth still flat – Labour will inherit this with total disregard to the economic mechanism that would correct it.

Also why is every day – a number new one priority day?

(I tell you why the campaign seems it’s dragged on because you all inherently know the big win is not going to be that much of a push back.)

Manifesto is about to drop – probably just finished copying up the Tory version.

Not in any gardens, but I’ve seen quite a few big Conservative boards in farmer’s fields round here (South Cambs).

Yup  then moaning about the government they elected.

massive shy Tory syndrome going one I think

see this I don’t get. The mentality that you are so embarrassed by the party you support that you don’t want to let anyone know you support them. Yet you vote for them anyways. I guess not many people are prepared to stick their hands up and say they are a selfish, self centered twunt, even if they know themselves that they are..

or possibly it’s just because, in Scotland at least, they don’t want to wake up to find an abundance of frozen sausages in their lawn..

The mentality that you are so embarrassed by the party you support that you don’t want to let anyone know you support them. Yet you vote for them anyways.

It’s not so much embarassment as a fear of being cancelled in your social circle.

And after the last 14 years it would definitely be embarrassing to openly admit that you think the tory party is the best choice.

Interestingly Binners there is no sign of an election campaign here at all.  Nothing.

We got our first leaflet yesterday (libdem).  She was 4th last time (redrawn boundaries but unlikely to help!). On the one hand – at least she’s made an effort, but on the other I did wonder:

As a measure – the minimum rate for stuffing leaflets into letter boxes is about 100/hour. No need to engage with punters on the doorstep; just stuff and move on.

21 days until Independence Day; one hour per day x 21 days = 2100 leaflets per person.

IF you want to make a difference, get involved; it’s painless.

If someone posts 2100 leaflets what impact does that realistically have – ie. how many people receive a leaflet and it swings their indecisiveness to vote, or encourages them to turn up, or is part of 10 bits of messaging that add up to change their mind?   Bearing in mind that probably 1/3rd were always going to vote the way they do no matter what, 1/3rd have probably made up their mind already….  The one leaflet I have says nothing – its says the LibDems are the “only” people who will help Schools and NHS (but all the parties tell you they will do those things – not how; and those things are all devolved issues anyway).  Has anyone ever received a leaflet that made them say, “ah I didn’t realise that, tell me more”.

Alternatively, spend hours on STW and other media where your comments will have ZERO impact.

I’m not sure thats 100% true.  It was from here that I learned what Short money was.  Now that puts a different perspective on voting for a “no hope” candidate.  Which may at least partly explain why the opposition parties aren’t so keen to sacrifice a no-hope seat to keep a worse enemy out.

The sad thing about that data is that the Tory  “easily” be voted out. Instead of that the Libdems/Greens will wake up to a Tory MP in their constituency.

If you were the LibDems in that seat you might well be thinking that Grant Shapps had a point yesterday!  If, along with everyone else in the country, you believe SKS is the next PM then why would a LibDem want to make their party’s voice on the opposition bench more dilute?  Its probably also wrong to assume that given a choice between Tory/Labour/Reform that all those who might vote LibDem or Green normally would chose to cast their vote with labour just because the party said it was the least worst.  Play that card wrong and you might get a Reform candidate!

Kramer
Free Member
A damning indictment of the consequences of a staggeringly cynical Conservative policy decision in 2010

A good but torrid read, man we are buggered.

If nothing else the Tories need to be removed at all costs and never trusted again.