So the question remains if the Tories are going to lose the general election because they aren’t right-wing enough why is it Labour which is expected to win a landslide not Reform UK?
I’m saying they’re losing a lot of votes because despite their rhetoric they haven’t actually achieved anything that’s usually be considered desirable by the right. Even with their culture wars bullshit they’ve not actually changed anything even though they’ve been in power. Some of those who desire that will move to reform, but many more will view them as a completely wasted vote run by a charlatan who is only good at destroying. They want traditional right of centre Tory policies delivered competently. I think a swing to positions to the right of what they’ve been saying will destroy them but that doesn’t change the fact that due to their incompetence they aren’t viewed as being true conservatives. Have a look a right wing UK twitter, it’s interesting to see how some of them think.
Our elections are now largely influenced by voter turn out rather than swing voters. The Tories barely got any more votes in 2019 than 2016 but had a resounding majority because the labour vote collapsed. I suspect the opposite will happen for Labour this time. Take the recent Blackpool byelection. Labour went from 12557 to 10825 but the Tories collapsed from 16247 to 3218.Very few traditional Tories will vote Labour this time but Starmer is so bland he doesn’t scare them in to actually voting for a useless Tory party unlike Corbyn did.
