UK Election!

It’s mostly just tribal for some of them though.

I have relatives who say that Starmer is the right person to be PM, think the country needs Labour to win…. but will still vote Conservative as they’d rather “one of their own side” represented them.

Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?

I have a member of my family, who I can’t believe I’m related to, who is a true blue Tory, loved Boris and still thinks Brexit was a great idea. You may be shocked to hear he’s also as thick as a boxing day turd

Look at the face of the guy behind Nige he knows this is campaign gold.

That guy lobbing stuff out the bin had a good aim under pressure. Also, as an aside “alleged incident” – FFS, there’s a video of someone throwing things at Farage’s head, there’s nothing alleged about it.

Always liked Barnsley.

Poll tweak for the libs.

Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll

** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4

LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)

https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1800558618254942681?t=KPCb_TSskmWdrVU-2EGOqw&s=09

So the winner will be either Farage or Labour. I can see the possibility of Farage splitting the right-wing vote sufficiently down the middle to allow Labour to win.

All the polls I have seen for Clacton show (CON+REF)>LAB That means if you split the right wing vote down the middle one of those 2 cheeks of the same arse still beat LAB. I think it’s either CON or REF.

South Dorset

I think I’ll move down and hope Rosie gets in. At least they’re not a single policy outfit, they seem to cover a lot of ground in their policies, mostly pretty socialist.

How ironic that voting Tory could end up being the tactical vote to keep Farage out!

Also a very compelling reason to nuke Clacton from orbit.

Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?

My OH.

I’ve no idea why, she spent last year on JSA taking a gap year and looking for work about as intensely as I look for the salad option on a pub menu, costs the NHS an absolute fortune and continuously complains about public services.

But despite working in HR she has very strong views on immigrants and TGBTQ+ issues, and thinks Boris needed more time to get the job done. Details of what the jobs he was doing are vague.

I’m related to people who still think Liz Truss was great and should have been given more time. Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.

Perhaps though it is better to let him win a seat.

He already had a seat as an MEP. And he re-won it, then forced a referendum and got the result he wanted.  He needs to be thoroughly beaten in the polls.  And before anyone says anything about Nick Griffin fading away after being ‘exposed’ on Question Time, he faded away because his policies were adopted by mainstream political parties so he wasn’t needed any more.

#PrayforTinas

All of my in-laws will vote Tory.  I’ll be polite and say that they have a limited interest in the nuances of current affairs. Voting Tory is just what you do for people like them. They’re genuinely the nicest people you could meet too. I just avoid talking politics with them!

#PrayforTinas   #PrayforTinas’sNewPatio ;)

A nice timely bit of good news today as another levelling up success is revealed

Why one of Britain’s wealthiest villages has netted a £300k taxpayer-funded levelling-up grant

The latest polling

Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll

** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4

LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)

Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)

— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 11, 2024

So has Sunak managed to launch his manifesto without any PR disasters today then?

Does announcing a promise on NI, which they promised on in 2019 but broke in 2020(?), and now announcing again in 2024 ‘because you can trust us?’ count as a PR disaster?

He comes across as out of touch and financially isolated from reality

this is crying out for a “Common People” parody.

Mel Stride (yes, him again) is presently being absolutely dismantled on channel 4 news by Krishnan about all the Tory sums that don’t add up

Mel Stride (yes, him again) is presently being absolutely dismantled on channel 4 news by Krishnan about all the Tory sums that don’t add up

He’s got the look of a man that knows he’s talking shit, I’d have respect for him if he just said “**** it” on camera and launched himself from the balcony, preferably to land on a gaggle of Tufton Street spads

Stride’s super power is being able to talk the same old shite about lies over and over again without shame.

Think about a system and a set of circumstances that allows someone like that to attain high office.

Now think about the civil servants who have to deal with his ilk.

Now try not to be cynical.

Mel Stride flailing. No wonder no other minister is prepared to go on the record defending this bag of old bollocks…

"We are now seeing taxes coming down."

"That's not true, is it?" @krishgm questions Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride's tax claims as the Conservatives release their manifesto. pic.twitter.com/65z1lEJfbK

— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) June 11, 2024

Also loving the fact that Sunak’s tax giveaway isn’t crashing the economy because the markets aren’t reacting – they know none of it will happen.

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

The latest polling

Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week (though admittedly from a higher starting point) as LD and REF increase their share.

The bookies have got the Lib Dems to win more seats than the Tories now at 3/1. It was 4/1 a couple of days ago and 6/1 last week

That’ll have them twitching in the ‘Blue Wall’

Some of them are also ant-vax, obsessed with trans issues the woke and think Muslims are a threat to our way of life. Only consolation is that they will probably vote reform and help to split the Tory vote.

Yeah, my FIL is one.

“Basically, we live in a Muslim state”

“Climate change is bollocks”

“Immigrants get an iPhone, car and free house”

Mad thing is, Truss’s little flutter nearly lost them their house sale. They had to move in with us for a few months…he still won’t accept that the Tories are all total **** because something something labour Corbyn 70’s strikes something.

All the polls I have seen for Clacton show (CON+REF)>LAB That means if you split the right wing vote down the middle one of those 2 cheeks of the same arse still beat LAB. I think it’s either CON or REF.

Interesting, I can’t find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.

Obviously if the Tories are in the best position to defeat Farage then I wouldn’t hesitate to vote Tory.

Interesting to see LAB losing more than CON over the past week

The YouGov poll out today has Labour falling 3 points but the sample is relatively very small – 1,611. The Redfield poll out yesterday however had Labour up 3 points and the sample was huge – 10,000

Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don’t seem feasible – how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?

In my dreams maybe but sadly extraordinarily unlikely in the real world.

Basically, we live in a Muslim state

I had the argument the other day.  Only 6.5 % of the UK identify as Muslim.   Tell him that and he’ll probably tell they are all in positions of power and rule over us Crusaders , you Sunak, Khan, Romesh Ranganathan.

Surely voting Tory is pointless if we live in a Muslim state.

“Yeah, my FIL is one.

“Basically, we live in a Muslim state””

I feel like presents are a great opportunity to help friends and family learn about new things.

So for Christmas, you should buy him a flight to a Muslim state.

You could get him the return for his birthday.

I would just tell them that the next Labour government is going to make King Charles’s official title “HRH the Emir of the United Kingdom” so not to offend Muslims.

It always helps when you tell them that it’s not to offend someone.

From a statistically pure perspective – statistical validity is generally accepted when the sample size is 2,000 or more, subject to the sample selection complying with accepted selection criteria.

I’m not a statistician so will accept comment/correction from those better qualified than me/I.

Interesting, I can’t find a recent opinion poll for Clacton, have you got a link? I am assuming a big swing to Labour which is in line with all the recent national opinion polls.

FT poll

YouGov

Electoral Calculus

Personally I think the polls are somewhat confused at the moment. Some of them simply don’t seem feasible – how realistic is it that the Tories will end up with less MPs than the LibDems?

Agreed. I can’t see it happening but it would be nice.

Thanks slowoldman.

The FT has Reform UK on just 17.6% in Clacton, YouGov have them on 19.5%, and Calculus have them on 38.3%

That’s quite a range!

It is. The Electoral Calculus one is quite an outlier! But I think quite a lot of the stuff I’ve seen on their site is at odds with the others, including the nationwide share and resulting seats.

I live in a little red blob in a sea of blue (cambs). Interestingly I’ve seen a lot of lib dem boards up in the surrounding villages alongside the labour ones. Also got some lib dem propaganda through attacking kier starmer, no significant mention of the tories.  I’ve got a sinking feeling that the sane vote will be split and Tories will keep some seats around here.  Spoke to our works landlord today, he’s aghast at the prospect of labour putting inheritance tax on his 200 acres of prime arable…

Not sure if the stats on voting intentions are quite solid yet, and electoral calculus seems to be based on older data from what I can tell. FT seems a little more in touch. And Frank, you and your fellow canvassers doing a good job in Newark if FT is reliable.

The stopthetories and best for Britain still waiting for more data before they make a recommendation on tactical vote for seats like midsussex, but FT seems to show that LDs are the gtto option.

There are very few permutations of that FT calculator which don’t return a Tory in my constituency :(

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salisbury_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

It was last Liberal 100 years ago. Obviously never been a Labour seat. LD candidate is a solid option having stood before and is a local councillor. Thinking I might vote for her and campaign for Reform?

Wow, just noticed that Farage stood her in 97!