UK Election!

The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?

have you seen those 40 new hospitals ? they are amazing :?

The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?

They’ve been in for 14 years – why are they making all these pledges/promises to improve the everyday for the average person now instead of doing it throughout the past 14 years?

Well firstly the Tories know, like everyone else does, that they won’t win the general election so whether they stick to their promises is a moot question.

Secondly the Tories argue that all the bad stuff of the last 14 years had nothing to do with them but now they have got everything on track, and it’s been a very hard slog, things can finally improve.

The deficit which they inherited in 2010 was all the fault of Gordon Brown, and nothing to do with failed neoliberal policies causing the worst global crisis since the 1930s.

And then came the crisis caused by covid, I think the Chinese were responsible for that one.

Now pretty much everything has been sorted out and life is going to get great again. If it doesn’t it will be the fault of the incoming Labour government, not the Tories, obviously.

but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?

Of course they don’t. That’s the wonder of representative politics. Politicians can say or promise what they like to get elected, and then ignore it and do something else once in power. I’m always amazed why this stupid system has so much support.

Brexit wasn’t their fault either

I can’t really see how it could be workable,  but if there were some system to force policy pledges made in manifestos to be implemented it does feel appealing.

The Tories seem to be making quite a few pledges/promises – obviously keen to win over votes – but do they need to keep these pledges/promises if they get in?

The Tories find themselves in the position the Lib Dems or the Green Party are usually in. As they’ve absolutely no chance of being in government they can promise everyone the moon on a stick, knowing they’ll never have to deliver it

They’ve been in for 14 years – why are they making all these pledges/promises to improve the everyday for the average person now instead of doing it throughout the past 14 years?

That’s the question everyone’s asking, particularly about their sudden interest (after 14 years) in cracking down on tax avoidance

Brexit wasn’t their fault either

Those pesky remainers need to have a long hard look at themselves. /s

Of course they don’t. That’s the wonder of representative politics. Politicians can say or promise what they like to get elected, and then ignore it and do something else once in power. I’m always amazed why this stupid system has so much support

And James O’Brien’s show theme yesterday was why do people think politicians are all the same.

He was trying to defend the notion that they’re not.

I’m sorry James – that battle has been lost or we would have a huge difference between Labour and Conservative policy.

the bbc seems to  be putting Lil Rishi’s begging   groveling face over every new promise.

Has anyone seen any other government ministers than Mel Stride since Rishi’s frightful D-Day faux pas?

He really must be spectacularly dim to not be wondering by now why he’s been the only person doing all the media rounds for 3 full days now

it’s going to look bloody odd if it’s just Stride and Lil’ Ol’ Rishi at the launch :?

Cameron must have plenty of time on his hands as he’s not defending a seat!

Did they (Reform)mention social care?

Actually I still wouldnt vote for them

The only other Tory Grandee I’ve seen in the news is that Jeremy Hunt donated £100,000 to his local Tory party for campaigning. Or in other words, hoping that ‘investing’ £100,000 is enough to retain his seat. Which tells everyone what the benefits of being an MP is worth to some folks…

Cameron must have plenty of time on his hands as he’s not defending a seat!

Apparently the main reason he was brought back was for his campaigning experience in the upcoming election. He appears to have borrowed Borises fridge to hide in. It must be a bit crowded in there this week

@rone, go to electoral calculus website and search for Bassetlaw to see latest prediction.

In summary, Labour to win with 16% majority and likelihood of winning is 86%.

There are also predictions by ward.

As for farmers in Newark constituency, the NFU are showing support for Labour and our candidate got a warm welcome at the Nottinghamshire county show. Whether this will translate into the farming community voting Labour is an open question.

I like the local knowledge @frankconway

Lower down the importance trough – have you been to Taylor’s restaurant in Newark?

Has anyone seen any other government ministers

The Tory party chair (not sure I’d call him a grandee) after his constituency fix up row & then tantrum about being asked about it on sky news

Conservative Chairman Tricky Dicky Holden has officially given the worst interview of the election campaign so far. Given the competition, that's some goingpic.twitter.com/LJUUuPb890

— Larry the Cat (@Number10cat) June 10, 2024

has today tried to publish another letter saying Sunaks £2k tax figure definately wasnt made up by SPADS, that clearly says it was made up by SPADS

Do you think maybe Richard Holden didn't turn the letter over and read the second page?

That's the least unkind way of explaining his delusional tweet. https://t.co/vgNvYTgMJ7

— Edwin Hayward (@edwinhayward) June 11, 2024

whats remarkable is that the party chairman is just so spectacularly bad at this

Haven’t been to Taylor’s – yet – but it’s on the list. Their wines and spirits are supplied by Ann et Vin which is next door.

Ann has been my local wine merchant of choice since she opened 20+ years ago so that’s a plus point for me.

I’m trying to think of a public figure who is as out of touch with the press and public as Rishi Sunak. The comparison that comes to mind is when  Prince Edward met the press during his ‘It’s a Knockout fiasco (older forum members might remember).

Even Liz Truss would do a better job of campaigning and I can’t believe I just wrote that. I can’t imagine her making a cock up over the D-Day commemorations the way Sunak did. Conversley, she would exploited the photo opp for all it was worth, dropping in by parachute probably.

I’m still shellshocked by that Akehurst video. Apart from his dreadful politics, can you imagine having to go out and campaign for such a wreck of a man? How much talent and energy must have been by-passed to drop him into a safe seat? The Durham Labour Party must be thick with a miasma of rancour.

Our Tory candidate was out and about again in the town today as it’s market day.

She’s been there the past couple of weeks campaigning but from what I’ve seen is either chatting with the odd pensioner or standing looking out as everyone’s ignoring her. The previous MP who’s standing down was like the invisible man by comparison.

The good news is the the Electoral Calculus site suggests that what was previously a Tory stronghold, having previously been Johnson’s constituency for years, is looking like a Lib Dem win. Happy days!

That electoral calculus site has Labour overturning geoffrey cox who in 2019 had a 60% vote share and 24,000 majority.

I am cynical.

The Tories are half an hour late for their own manifesto launch

They must be still scrawling it on the back of that fag packet

Rishi is sounding more like Will off the inbetweeners than ever today. Will off the inbetweeners would get more respect from me though

he’s using his mrs again :? are they trying to bait Labour ?

Crikey, this manifesto must costs a fortune to deliver, lucky they won’t have too.

Let’s hope the Tory blinkered people can actually do the obvious maths – which of course they find an argument not to.

The nicotine stained man frog has pulled out of his BBC interview at the last minute https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-hitler-pulls-out-bbc-interview-b2560440.html

dropping in by parachute probably

She’s mad enough to do it sans parachute for the Lolz.

So Rishi intends funding tax cuts on the back of welfare cuts.

The Tories find themselves in the position the Lib Dems or the Green Party are usually in. As they’ve absolutely no chance of being in government they can promise everyone the moon on a stick, knowing they’ll never have to deliver it

Had one person today describe the the tory and lib dem manifestos as ‘politics fan fiction’

Rishi is sounding more like Will off the inbetweeners than ever today. Will off the inbetweeners would get more respect from me though

I was thinking exactly that. He’s upped the ante on the patronising, condescending tone. I don’t know how it was possible but he’s even more irritating than usual, the pompous little shit

As a “Kind Yuppie”, Electoral Calculus is predicting a 67% likelihood of Labour being the King’s local MP. I wonder about the underlying algorithm for scoring locality since in the last election Labour and Lib Dems were 20% apiece with Conservatives having an outright majority of 54%. That’s a big Yuppie swing to Labour if true.

And that interview was a road crash. Funny though. But it doesn’t beat ” NHS waiting lists are lower now than when they were higher”, as opposed to when the policy of lowering the waiting list was announced. HIGNFY was good on catch up last night, but just missed the desertion on the beaches.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-hitler-pulls-out-bbc-interview-b2560440.html

The url for this when read straight is wonderful

I love that the Independent link is ‘…nigel-farage-hitler,..’ !

jam-bo, Reform are predicted to take 13.7% of the votes in cox’s constituency; most of that switch will be from tories.

At the same time, Labour’s predicted vote share is growing – everywhere – so I think it’s entirely possible that cox will lose.

Let’s compare notes on 5th July.

As a “Kind Yuppie”, Electoral Calculus is predicting a 67% likelihood of Labour being the King’s local MP. I wonder about the underlying algorithm for scoring locality since in the last election Labour and Lib Dems were 20% apiece with Conservatives having an outright majority of 54%.

Electoral Calculus does seem to have some surprising predictions compared with say Yougov and FT. Mostly some lovely outcomes but the odd not so good one (Reform to take Clacton). It will be interesting to see who gets closest to reality come election day.

Out of pure curiosity – Is there anyone on here still planning to vote Tory?

Or is there anyone on here who knows someone who is planning to vote Tory?

Just a quick reminder that 95% of the electorate don’t take as much interest in politics as people on this thread. For them, it isn’t even about empty manifesto pledges. Just ‘impressions’ that can be created. The £2094 figure will have stuck in lots of minds – despite being constantly debunked.

TiRed, my post above re geoffrey cox’s constituency also applies to Windsor where Reform are polling 11.8%.

Compare notes on 5th July.

Is there anyone on here still planning to vote Tory?

I’m sort of tempted. This seat should be a fairly close contest between Conservative and SNP and I think the latter deserve a bloody good kick up the arse.