a post election move further to the right would be a bad thing for the tories
Its the Tories themselves failing to grasp the ‘Shy Tory’ syndrome.
In the past the Tories could appear incredibly unpopular and still win elections and that was simply becuase a lot of tories voters don’t really make a lot of noise about themselves being tory voters. The don’t voice their satisfaction when the party tries to court them so the popularity of policies don’t really become evident until poling day. I always used to find it odd back in the 90s that there must be conservative voters all around me and I had no idea who any of them were. Genuinely the first conversation I was a part of where someone spoke supportively of the conservatives (who were in the electoral doldrums at the time) – was in the mid noughties, on this forum. (come back CFH!)
In recent years, when challenged from the right by UKIP / Reform, the party has had to try and court the right wing, and what its found is – those kinds of Tories – they’re not shy. They make lots of noise – they voice approval of dog whistles and cruelty-driven policies, they voice discontent and any given immigration or Brexit policy ‘not being enough’, all the time threatening to leave and take their vote with them. And that becomes addictive. Pandering to those elements in the media and online creates lots of engagement and feedback from a noisy, but actually pretty small, portion of the electorate. But it’s immediate, visceral reward. Meanwhile the rest of their voter base has been taken for granted – if they’re silent why do you need to say anything to them?
But while shy tories have been shy of voicing their support of the party in the past, they’re now just as quiet in voicing their disapproval. They find the cruelty that underlines the party’s overtures to the right wing repellant but don’t engage in the debate. They’ve quietly watched their party being hijacked. Voters are leaving in droves for Labour, the Liberals or anyone else, but they’re just going, they’re not saying that they are going, or saying why they are going, or saying what the party would have to do to persuade them to stay.
And the numbers show that – and what do the party do? Make more appeals to the right and get a liltle self congratulatory endorphin hit as the socials light up and think ‘yeah we owned the libs’.
