UK Election!

What time do the results usually start to come in on election night? No spare holidays to take the Friday off work, but contemplating either staying up late or getting up really early to see the annihilation of the tories as it happens.

it’s pretty grim when you’ve no more favour to bestow!

@teesoo – Sunderland is famously usually the first to declare a result at generally not long after the polls close, so expect results coming in from 11pm onwards. I’m going to be staying up to see the Portillo Moments, of which hopefully there will be many 😃

I assume Nigel Farage was on the BBC as usual ?

My comment was facetious, but I see he actually was on Tory Laura’s show. FFS!!!

Even before that, at 10pm as polls close they’ll release the results of the exit polls. They can’t before in case it influences voting, but the experts will have been interviewing voters all day, all across the country and will have a pretty good idea already. Then as votes start coming in we’ll see how accurate the exit polls were but generally they’re pretty accurate.

So I suspect parties will be starting quite a bit before the actual counts come in (I know they don’t do that but when ‘the party’ is a political grandee having to do interviews with a face like a smacked arse and trotting out ‘it’s clear it’s been a very bad night’) then hopefully all but the most decorous will be lifting the lid off a bottle of something good.

3 weeks or so to go, don’t count your chickens and keep pressing the message to get out and vote.

Normally at some point in the night, before all results are in, it’s clear whose going to win it’s just how many. At that point there’s usually a ‘concession’ of sorts. I wonder if Rishi will concede on the basis of exit polls, and then **** off home to avoid further embarrassment.

What time is the earliest flight to California on July 5th?

“What time is the earliest flight to California on July 5th?”

Sunak Air 00:01?

Joking aside,  doesn’t the outgoing PM have to stay and dissolve Parliament and hand the keys in to number 10 & chequers?

The clear implications is that Sunak isn’t a real “Briton” and doesn’t really “get” WW2

I’d agree with that thought process.

I worked for many years in teams/depts where I was pretty much the only non-public schoolboy, even those who were only half British (through birth) understood 100% what WW2 means to the ‘British’.

But then Sunak has previously pledged himself to the USA – only way to get a Green Card.

I see him as a citizen of nowhere, no interest whatsoever in anywhere particular, just there to make the most of it for himself.

I reckon his worse-case scenario is winning his seat and losing the election.

3 weeks or so to go, don’t count your chickens and keep pressing the message to get out and vote.

I said it early on in this thread but absolutely this ^^.

Don’t spoil your ballot paper (no-one will read your hilarious remarks or anatomically correct graphic drawings), do get out and vote.

Don’t assume everyone else feels the same way, don’t assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct – they won’t be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn’t bother voting!

I reckon his worse-case scenario is winning his seat and losing the election.

Please let this happen, but have the usual huge majority reduced to about 23 votes. In which case he’ll hang about for about as long as Dave did after losing the Brexit referendum.

So the first by-election would be five weeks after the general election, held against a backdrop of a Tory rats-in-a-sack Leadership campaign which is guaranteed to be absolute comedy gold

“Don’t assume everyone else feels the same way, don’t assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct – they won’t be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn’t bother voting!”

For the first time my mindset is following this train of thought,  as ridiculous as he is,  I’m afraid of Reform/Farage making huge in roads.

We need to all vote. And make our votes count. If you leave it to everyone else… well…

Don’t assume everyone else feels the same way, don’t assume the polls of electoral wipeout are correct – they won’t be correct if everyone assumes that and doesn’t bother voting!

I’m sure that’ll it’ll be the same in most other constituencies, but with our CLP there’s a huge effort planned over these next few weeks to make sure people get out and vote. And there’s no shortage of volunteers or enthusiasm, unlike the local Tories who are using paid local agency workers to deliver they’re electoral bumph.

We’re going to be busy. I hope the bloody weather improves!

Sunak has previously pledged himself to the USA – only way to get a Green Card.

This isn’t true. A Green Card (permanent resident card) doesn’t involve any sort of pledge or undertaking or loyalty to the US. It is only for foreign citizens.

Pledged is overstating, you don’t have to naturalise / declare allegiance to be a green card holder, but there are obligations akin to committing yourself to the US. Which makes me wonder whether he does actually hold a green card now?

Your Responsibilities
Law adherence: Compliance with all U.S. laws is mandatory.
Tax obligations: You must file income tax returns.
Selective Service registration: Males aged 18-25 must register, indicating their availability for U.S. Armed Forces service.
Status maintenance: Keep your immigration status updated with the USCIS, including any address changes.
Preserving Your Green Card Status
To avoid unintentional abandonment of your Green Card status, maintain continuous residency in the U.S. Extended periods abroad or failure to meet residency obligations could imply you no longer consider the U.S. your permanent home.

I’m struggling to see how the PM of the UK can be considered to be a continuous resident of the USA

He handed it back. The US doesn’t pre-emptively cancel GCs for foreign residences so long as you “clock in” every year or so. There are plenty of people that really live outside the US bur keep their GC valid.

there are obligations akin to committing yourself to the US

There aren’t though – that’s just tax returns and being locatable as a military aged male. As foreign citizens can’t be drafted, that’s for the purpose of being interned, not serving…

The point is does anyone believe that Rishi Sunak has any allegiances to anyone beyond himself and his immediate family?

If so, do they actually believe the little guy will still be resident in the UK a week after the election?

There aren’t though – that’s just tax returns and being locatable as a military aged male.

You missed a third one out though “maintain continuous residency in the U.S. ” which to me is a commitment.

The rules for emigration are very different for the super wealthy than  the rest of us. Rishi would have no problems whether his green card has expired or not.

What’s interesting is that even daily express hacks are enjoying this (also Holdens girlfriend is a politics reporter at The Sun)

https://x.com/christiancalgie/status/1799859124047593566?t=b-XXSWfmYp7CF9m-iRTzEw&s=19

Even before that, at 10pm as polls close they’ll release the results of the exit polls.

Which have been incredibly accurate in recent GEs.

You missed a third one out though “maintain continuous residency in the U.S. ” which to me is a commitment.

the caveat being “could imply” leaves some leeway for

The rules for emigration are very different for the super wealthy

He’ll be impressed by all those hearty outdoor camping types around Venice and Santa Monica.

I reckon they might have to totally refurb no.10 after Sunak moves out.

Allegedly, to keep morale up during the GE campaign, a sex dungeon has been installed in the basement and the attic has a cannabis farm in full flush ready for harvest.

Gove brings his own marching powder of course.

@binners 10:30am from LGW

So France is now going to have a general election at the same time as the UK.

And will quite likely elect a hard right government.

Random observation today after chatting with a dyed in the wool Tory voting relative…..

“Rishi did the right thing by buggering off early, screw the French, the Germans and the bloody “Japs,” they should all still be paying us money back. And while we’re at it, why should the French get to own E:On!? Our government should be taking it off them and start running it.”

🤔 I mean… It’s just very confusing.

Does look like there is going to be a scary divergence across the channel,  will be in the opposite direction to normal though.

Us going centre (left) and France likely going way right

The shift to the hard right seems to go far beyond the Channel.

How ironic so soon after the 80th commemoration of D-Day.

You missed a third one out though “maintain continuous residency in the U.S. ” which to me is a commitment

You’re trying to make out that he’s got (or more accurately had) some kind of foreign allegiance because he had a Green Card. This is same old canard as Catholics owing allegiance to Rome or Jews owing allegiance to Israel.

The reality is much more prosaic, and you’re getting the “obligation” to live in the US backwards. The only thing that happens if you don’t do it is that you are supposed to lose the status. PR status is only for residents. If you’re not a resident, you’re not eligible and it can be cancelled (same if you don’t file tax returns or break the law etc). The US is not very diligent about cancelling it for people that really live outside the US – I have a colleague that hasn’t lived there since about 2005 but she pops over every now and again to keep it formally active. For Sunak – it’s a bit harder to fly under the radar when you’re an MP or later a minister, and he handed it back because he wasn’t eligible to keep it.

In any case – he’s not going to find it hard to get back there esp  if his wife and kids have status there. The (possibly cynical) rumour is that he has picked school places for his kids in California to start in September.

Are bookies giving odds on Sunak being an MP in July 2025?

Brexiteers will be gutted.

deleted, irrelevant to the main topic

Us going centre (left)

Sorry, but I don’t think the Greens are going to win 😉

Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election, leaving the Tories at just 37 seats, according to the new Deltapoll survey, which puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 per cent compared to the Conservatives on 21 per cent – with even the prime minister set to lose his Yorkshire seat

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-sunak-farage-mordaunt-rayner-latest-news-b2559291.html

Eh? Tories left with just 37 MPs?

This is getting silly now. I reckon Deltapoll should have gone back and done another survey, there is clearly something very wrong with their poll results. I would have struggled to believe it if they had said double that, 74.

Decent article here about the short term effects of the swing too the right across Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cv22vne9x03o

As always, will be interesting to see the “charismatic right wing, anti-elites” simple solutions to difficult problems hit reality.

Having a taste of far right politics might allow people to see the reality. Either way, it’s going to happen.

I just think these things are cyclic probably and a swing back to the left will happen and so on….

ernielynch
Full Member
Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election

Yeah, I just don’t see the swing to Labour being as big as some of these predictions say but what do I know?

As long as the Tories lose the GE I’ll be happy enough for the moment. Not so long ago another Tory term seemed inevitable. Boris the party animal did for them, they never recovered their votes after that.

Funny leaders don’t make good leaders, shocker.

Does look like there is going to be a scary divergence across the channel,  will be in the opposite direction to normal though.

Us going centre (left) and France likely going way right

Maybe we are, for once, ahead of the curve.

The EU results and what’s going on in France, Germany, etc is just the change that’s occurred slowly over the years, with a bit of impetus now due to Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Gaza and so on, the EU has always been a bit of a basket case due to so many moving parts that make it operate, i think it’s in for a rough few years ahead to keep operating the way it wants, probably the only benefit to us from Brexit is we might avoid the pain of in-fighting in the European Parliaments that’ll become more prevalent.

Still, hopefully we get our house in order after this election, the way things are going in Europe, i’m optimistic that we might get another chance in the next 5-10 years of having a better relationship/deal with the EU.

Funny leaders don’t make good leaders, shocker.

Especially the unintentionally funny ones

^^ Damned true! 😁