UK Election!

It’s great how everyone on this thread is celebrating the lack of real power of Farage and Reform UK. Probably worth pointing out again that the only thing guaranteeing that persists is first past the post. PR would hand him enough seats to be the third party and potentially the official opposition. This is the one thing he craves more than anything else so I continue to be baffled why almost all of his pro-EU opponents want to give him it? 🤷‍♂️

time to get those tiny violins out again…

No waitrose where they live? Seems like they can solve all the problems at once. Move near a waitrose and chances are there will be a good school there.

You’re wasted on here @dissonance. You should move to Tufton Street and set up a thinktank 😂

Another amusing Tweet from this morning, because we were all thinking it…

Those asking if ‘The Thick of It’ is writing this election may want to note that today’s Tory immigration plan -shunt it off to an independent body to decide, so ministers can avoid talking specifics in interviews- is the main plot of 2009’s special ‘The Rise of the Nutters.’

— Armando Iannucci (@Aiannucci) June 4, 2024

PR would hand him enough seats to be the third party and potentially the official opposition.

And yet, there’s a good proportion of folks on here that think introducing PR would be a good idea…What’s that expression about the dangers of getting what you ask for?

PR would mean that the Tories would never hold power again.

I also believe that Reform would fade away as people got sick of their shite.

 PR would hand him enough seats to be the third party and potentially the official opposition.

Because these parties oxygen comes from the fact they aren’t in power.

In countries with PR these parties get seats and sometimes even get to be in a minority government.  Once that happens and they actually have to deliver on their promises their ‘simple’ solutions tend to slam head first into reality.

UKIP and Reform got what they wanted without ever winning a seat.  They did this because FPTP means they can complain and play the victim but are never forced to deliver.

dazh
It’s great how everyone on this thread is celebrating the lack of real power of Farage and Reform UK. Probably worth pointing out again that the only thing guaranteeing that persists is first past the post. PR would hand him enough seats to be the third party and potentially the official opposition. This is the one thing he craves more than anything else so I continue to be baffled why almost all of his pro-EU opponents want to give him it? 🤷‍♂️

I can never figure out why anyone wants PR with that in the background either.  At least they’d be out in the open and the Greens would balance them out (a bit)

Once that happens and they actually have to deliver on their promises

They rarely do actually. There’s ample evidence that the parties in coalition govts don’t get their policies enacted because invariably they have to horse trade with their coalition partners. it’s FPTP that results in majority govts who can pass bills – especially in Westminster, as they control the House activity.

And yet, there’s a good proportion of folks on here that think introducing PR would be a good idea

You mean as opposed to now where the tories dance to their command and then labour lurch rightwards after them?

Also the fact a lot of people arent being represented, whether on left or right, is the main problem with FPTP.  That never ends well.

Also the fact a lot of people arent being represented, whether on left or right, is the main problem with FPTP.

Hey, I never said that FPTP is what I’d prefer, just that straight PR would see parties like Reform gaining significant power and influence which our current system at least; prevents.

Because these parties oxygen comes from the fact they aren’t in power.

Better for them to have publicity with no power than publicity with power. Allowing Farage to be the main opposition would be an incredibly dangerous experiment which would almost certainly result in him being in govt at some point in the future. I’m sorry the greens are also marginalised but it’s a price worth paying to keep Farage away from being able to implement his Trumpist policies.

In the meantime, a lot of people are effectively disenfranchised (though not so much if you live in a Tory ‘safe seat’ this time) leading to protest voting, and many people have to vote tactically for their least worst option rather than for someone they actually want.

You can argue that he’s been remarkably successful at getting what he wants without being elected, and I’m not sure that power without electoral accountability is a great thing either.

more of this please!

Attention UK media over the next 5 weeks.

THIS is how to deal with Nigel Farage. pic.twitter.com/Utt8UZ7lqw

— DUPLeader.bsky.social (@DUPleader) June 3, 2024

“And yet, there’s a good proportion of folks on here that think introducing PR would be a good idea…What’s that expression about the dangers of getting what you ask for?”

Because it would be properly democratic. The Right and Left wing may support a more centrist party on some issues, but the tail would not wag the dog!

interesting that UKIP, reform and the like have never got into the scots parliament which is elected on PR with a 6% ish threshold for seats.  funny that.  Its almost as if PR forces flok to think about their vote more carefully and stops folk making protest votes

If we had PR for Westminster we would NOT have had all those damaging tory governments and would still be in the EU.

Awkward thing this democracy giving us representative governments unlike FPTP which is not a real democracy and allows majority governments on a minority of the vote and penalizes smaller parties

If we had PR for Westminster we would NOT have had all those damaging tory governments and would still be in the EU.

I see that’s my cue to mention Blair reneging on a ’97 manifesto commitment to electoral reform (Jenkins Commission recommendation was to introduce AMS as used in Scotland, Wales and many other places)

I’m sorry the greens are also marginalised

If the Greens were at all interested in actually enacting any environmental change they would’ve merged by now with Labour. Because under our system that’s the only way they’d see any chance of doing anything constructive. That they haven’t says all I need to know about whether they’re either just a protest movement or have ambitions to y’know; achieve anything.

interesting that UKIP, reform and the like have never got into the scots parliament which is elected on PR with a 6% ish threshold for seats.

Not interesting at all as UKIP and reform were/are an unashamed English nationalist party. It’s no different to the English gloating about how the SNP or Sinn Fein don’t get any seats in England.

Interesting though that many on here are keen to flirt with giving Farage the foot in the door he craves because of idealistic concepts of democracy and representation. Maybe it’s just me but I care much more about keeping fascists away from power than making democracy a tiny bit fairer.

They stood in Scotland in some elections.   Its not gloating – its countering your daft ideas abourt PR.

At least they’d be out in the open and the Greens would balance them out (a bit)

I’m a small ‘d’ democrat so I think it’s just as unjustifiable that Reform have so few MPs as it is that the Greens are so underrepresented, even though I believe that Reform is a barely disguised ponzi scheme wearing the trappings of a political party.

Screeching from the sidelines without actually ever being responsible for running anything is Farage’s whole MO. The purity of opposition is everything to him.

A few people may recall that in the late 2000’s early 2010’s UKIP went through a phase of winning council seats, almost all their Councillors were ejected after 1 term (if they even lasted that long) as they were generally lazy, ignorant and disinterested in doing the job as it was a lot less fun than ‘owning the libs’ with all the shouty campaigning.

Their MEP’s were just as bad if not worse but they were only there to smash things up and be obnoxious anyway.

Unlike the Tories and Labour, I can’t see Reform having many ‘safe’ seats so when their MP’s turn out to be similarly poor at being a community’s social worker in chief they are fairly likely to get ejected.

 Its almost as if PR forces flok to think about their vote more carefully and stops folk making protest votes

PR encourages copy cat centrist parties that echo each other and make mountains out of minor differences, as partnering centrist parties is always required to get in into power under PR systems. Ending in stale govts that cannot make decisions and break apart forcing multiple election cycles.

Every form of democracy isn’t true democracy and has faults.

To be fair, the demographic is pretty precisely that of the STW frequent posters. Put  a few Santa Cruz in the picture and it’s us

 PR would hand him enough seats to be the third party and potentially the official opposition.

But someone would still need to form a government…..

Labour + Liberals + Greens would tend to be a natural alliance, it might not make everyone happy and that might reduce their vote share but it’s a big block of the electorate. It also leaves space for the Labour party to splinter into a Blairite “economically liberally socially democratic” faction, and a traditional Labour party with nationalization etc at it’s core.

And you assume the Tory party would survive it any better. You could end up with the sensible Tories (Economically liberal, low taxation and no other ideas) in one party (the Ying to the Labour parties economic Yang) and the absolute headbanging socially conservative nutters who want to re-write the human rights act, equalities act, send people to Rwanda, etc.

With a clean slate and no prejudices (i.e. ignoring the fact he stood no chance of winning anything at that point), if there had been an election after Boris or Liz and if Rishi had won it, but not by a majority, then I suspect he would have rather have entered into an “It’s the economy, stupid” coalition with the SNP, Liberals, Greens, whoever else would negotiate with him to keep than the “coalition” he’s ended up in having to waste all his meager political capital on Rwanda, National Service and LBGTQ+ rights.

FPTP doesn’t give us the governments we vote for.  At least PR would tend to give us coalitions based around some consensus and would leave breathing room for small-mid sized parties to actually get their ideas across without being silenced by the centrists.

Maybe it’s just me but I care much more about keeping fascists away from power than making democracy a tiny bit fairer.

No not just you, me too. I’d rather Reform were keep as far for power as is possible thanks.

At least PR would tend to give us coalitions based around some consensus

Yeah a consensus to not do much at all and continue with the status quo, which results in more support for rightwing snake oil salesmen who want us to think it’s all the fault of immigrants. At the end of the day, PR would result in Nigel Farage being MUCH more powerful than he currently is. I can’t quite believe that people on here who profess to hate everything he stands for want to give him exactly what he wants. It’s bonkers!

UKIP polled 14% of the votes cast in a general election, without winning a seat. I don’t agree with anything they say, but that smarts against my democratic principles. 1/7 of the electorate disenfranchised straight away.

That X clip above with Farage is illuminating and very well played – he had is ass handed to him.

On PR – I don’t think support of PR should come from a place of how it might benefit your own political position, as there will always be a negative for any party – but that’s the point. It’s not about who gets political benefit, it’s about democracy and representation, and as a result, a lot more compromise.

Better for them to have publicity with no power than publicity with power. Allowing Farage to be the main opposition would be an incredibly dangerous experiment which would almost certainly result in him being in govt at some point in the future.

I think you need to go and have a closer look at how countries with PR actually operate.  You are currently demonstrating a very limited way of thinking.

At the moment you are taking the way FPTP operates and assuming everything will be exactly the same except with more Reform/Green/etc holding seats.

It’s a completely different paradigm and does not work the same way at all.  If you are going to continue insisting PR is just FPTP but with smaller parties getting seats then it’s going to be really difficult to discuss this with you because, to put it simply, your founding idea is completely wrong.

you may have Reform/brexit party/UKIP but they would loses 5% of their vote to BNP/NF/EDL etc and so on

1/7 of the electorate disenfranchised straight away.

Like I said, that’s a (very) small price to keep fascists away from power.

It’s a completely different paradigm and does not work the same way at all.

True, it removes the ability of the electorate to choose their govt and hands it to politicians and party officials to negotiate among themselves what sort of govt they want. PR removes power from voters rather than the opposite.

Labour + Liberals + Greens would tend to be a natural alliance

You’d think. In practice a lot of Lab activists give off the impression they’d rather be in opposition than have to share power with anyone.

Completely agree however that a side effect of PR is likely to be splintering of both main parties.

Like I said, that’s a (very) small price to keep fascists away from power.

I’d argue that disenfranchising people based on their political beliefs IS Fascism.

You’d think. In practice a lot of Lab activists give off the impression they’d rather be in opposition than have to share power with anyone.

If true (maybe it is because they don’t believe that the current Labour party is what they would vote for so it doesn’t matter if they are in power or not just because they wear the same colour tie), then they wouldn’t survive as a party in PR.  People would (theoretically, hopefully) vote for parties with smaller more targeted manifestos that can bring something to the negotiating table.

SNP – wants an independence vote, everything else is peripheral, they don’t need to be anything else.  Makes them more appealing to Scottish conservatives if nothing else.

Green – wants renewables and public transport and active transport, they don’t need have a stance on anything else.

Social conservatives

Social progressives/liberals

Parties based on economic policies (Social democrats, centrists, liberals, free market’s)

In reality the parities based on economic policies would probably win the biggest shares, and then have to form a coalition with some single-issue parties. Or they form a minority government because they can form individual agreements to get most of their manifesto through with different parties. It’s how it ends up working elsewhere.

True, it removes the ability of the electorate to choose their govt and hands it to politicians and party officials to negotiate among themselves what sort of govt they want. PR removes power from voters rather than the opposite.

And if the voters aren’t happy with the way they figured it out amongst themselves then the party gets severely punished at the next election.

Afterall, there’s nothing stopping voters switching party, is there?  Unlike FPTP.

Anyway, you’ve quite clearly got a single oversimplified idea stuck in your head and no amount of real life examples is going to change your mind so crack on.

1/7 of the electorate disenfranchised straight away.

Interestingly (or not) I’ve been reading about the Putney Debates – The horse trading that the New Model Army and the Levellers (amongst others) had during the pause in fighting the First and Second Civil War. There’s the Levellers saying “Every man should have the vote” and there’s Cromwell and Ireton saying “If you give poor people the vote, they’ll sell it cheaply to the first man that promises them anything” And lo…Farage

Anyway, you’ve quite clearly got a single oversimplified idea stuck in your head and no amount of real life examples is going to change your mind so crack on.

If you’d lay off the implicit personal insults that you throw around liberally, I’d expect more people would engage you with your input, But y’know; crack on.

Its almost as if PR forces flok to think about their vote more carefully and stops folk making protest votes

That’s certainly not been the experience in Australia or Ireland. I don’t think voters are consciously changing their voting patterns based on the PR system in place. And UKIP/Reform won’t have bothered spending any money or time in Scottish constituencies. The fact they didn’t win any seats in one election is too thin to draw any conclusions from.

FPTP which is not a real democracy and allows majority governments on a minority of the vote and penalizes smaller parties

This is absolutely true tho. In Scotland in the 2019 General Election, the SNP got 45% of the votes and got 81% of the seats. Labour got 27% of votes and 1.6% of the seats. The Tories got 25% of votes and 10% of the seats. It’s nuts! Glad to see we are agreed that FPTP results in the wild overrepresentation of nationalists at Westminster, and that there should be more Scottish Tory MPs to reflect the will of the people.

To be fair, the demographic is pretty precisely that of the STW frequent posters. Put  a few Santa Cruz in the picture and it’s us

To be fair, if the snarky comments are about how overwhelmingly white the crowd is, maybe that’s because Skegby* is…overwhelmingly white. The ward is 96.8% white.

It’s interesting that none of the STW comments seem to have picked up on the fact that the punters are overwhelmingly middle-aged men.

I can’t quite believe that people on here who profess to hate everything he stands for want to give him exactly what he wants. It’s bonkers!

I think this is understating just how powerful their ‘anti-establishment/outsider’ image is when it comes to their support.

UKIP polled 14% of the votes cast in a general election, without winning a seat.

All of which helps fuel their overall message of grievance and grievance is by far the most powerful fuel for populist demagogues. This dynamic where they’re seen as being ‘shut-out’ of power by ‘the elite’ hugely boosts their appeal, the idea that the ‘establishment’ was somehow anti-Brexit was absolutely crucial to getting it over the line.

What Farage really wants is for the Tories to go down in flames in July, the harder they lose, the more desperate they’re going to be and the more likely he’s going to be able to walk in there as their shining savior, negotiate from a position of strength, merge them with Reform and take them over.

Tory leader is what he’s always wanted to be.

that’s my cue to mention Blair reneging on a ’97 manifesto commitment to electoral reform (Jenkins Commission recommendation was to introduce AMS as used in Scotland, Wales and many other places)

I think you may win a prize for being the first to accuse Blair of breaking a 1997 manifesto promise…and it was actually in the manifesto and he did break it! 🏅

and it was actually in the manifesto and he did break it!

Apparently Jack Straw deserves most of the “credit” for that.

PR encourages copy cat centrist parties that echo each other and make mountains out of minor differences, as partnering centrist parties is always required to get in into power under PR systems.

Have you looked at our FPTP? The difference under PR is the centrists need to negotiate as opposed, as with Starmers labourites, demand that they are completely pandered to.