UK Election!

You taking my bet then Uncle Jezza?

The problem with Farage is that firstly he very occasionally gets it right. There was a moment during his press conference when I actually stopped smiling in amusement at his moronic comments, that was when he commented on the issues of PR and the House of Lords. He was in fact spot-on and saying exactly what Keir Starmer should be saying.

The second problem is that both the Tory and Labour leaders have absolutely zero charisma. Immediately after the Farage segment on the news they switched to a read speech by Keir Starmer, my immediate reaction was **** me is he dull or what.

I can see Farage benefitting from those two points more than I am comfortable with.

Farage will put in as much effort as an MP  as he did as an MEP – worst attendece record (bar a guy who was paralysed & attended virtually).  Max out the expenses & subsidised bars and only show up for grandstand ING clips for social media consumption

Also British MP makes him sound more important in USA

That said best result would be for Reform to help Tories get totally wiped out and farage to still not get elected as an MP

Unfortunately he gets to air his views even more on prime time which is grim

Tories were facing wipeout before this, in yougovs latest MRP a lot of Tory seats they’re just winning by a few %, so even a small gain for Reform from Tory vote could have a bg effect, also really help lib dems in some tight tory seats, Davey could well end up as LOTO

You taking my bet then Uncle Jezza?

What bet, i’m not even sure what he’s up to these days, i know he’ll go for the election and keep going until he’s no longer capable, not sure what he’ll do when he gets in, still running around the world doing his stuff i guess.

Binners – Nah – two months ago I might have but its really too late now for the deal to be done.

The second problem is that both the Tory and Labour leaders have absolutely zero charisma. Immediately after the Farage segment on the news they switched to a read speech by Keir Starmer, my immediate reaction was **** me is he dull or what.

Mrs Binners has just said the exact same thing Ernesto. She watched Farage, then Rishi, then said “Oh god, the same idiots who voted for Boris because ‘he’s a bit of a laugh and I can imagine having a pint with him’ are all going to vote Reform now, aren’t they?”

^^ I was just thinking of the possible consequences for Farage (and Clacton) if he wins/loses.

If he wins, unlike being an MEP he’ll be expected to actually do some actual work. There’ll be no campaigning to do, which is what he really thrives on, sure he’ll be on the news throwing shit at Labour policies as much as he can but for the first time he’ll be directly accountable to those that voted for him.

If Clacton voters are daft enough to vote for him, which is likely, they probably deserve what they will be getting frankly, which is a workshy grifter.

On balance, I want him to be elected so there is a real spotlight on him for 5 years.

It will be illuminating in many ways.

On balance, I want him to be elected so there is a real spotlight on him for 5 years.

TBH that’s very similar to my thinking. If he wins he will almost certainly be the only Reform MP among literally hundreds of MPs, so really quite insignificant. Farage craves being the centre of attention, he will hate it.

Furthermore when he does get the spotlight in the House of Commons and he has the opportunity to speak he will expose himself as an intellectual pygmy. He might impress the lads down his local but there are some savvy politicians in the House of Commons.

I’m not so sanguine about it. Pasokification may see Farage become a likely next PM. I hope he loses ignominiously and ****s off to America.

read speech by Keir Starmer, my immediate reaction was **** me is he dull or what.

If politics is exciting, like constitiutional law currently is, you’re doing it wrong. (©DavidAllenGreen)

zomg
Full Member
I’m not so sanguine about it. Pasokification may see Farage become a likely next PM. I hope he loses ignominiously and ****s off to America.

Absolutely, him becoming an MP is not without risk. That said, he has had a huge and negative (imo) impact on UK politics and society by being able to be on the outside pissing in, having much influence with almost none of the accountability.

If he were PM eventually he will still hit the reality brick wall that all far right politicians eventually do simply because they make huge promises based on simple solutions. It never ends well.

So yep, over all, I’ll be happy to see him become an MP as there will at least be some oversight of him whilst actually having to work for his constituents. I’m theory.

He needs a spot light on him, he’s lived in the shadowy murk far too long.

It’ll also end his whole, “in not one of the elites/ politicians” bs he comes up with.

If politics is exciting, like constitiutional law currently is, you’re doing it wrong.

Well I  might not expect House of Commons Select Committee politics to be exciting and gripping but I certainly expect general election politics to be.

And in fact I am actually quite exited about the 2024 general election, even if the speeches from the leaders of the government and opposition might be dull and uninspiring.

Btw if David Green truly believes that constitutional law is currently exciting he needs to get out more.

FFS. Earthworm Jim!  AGAIN!  He’s like a turd that just won’t flush.  Just sitting there fouling the water and blocking the plumbing from doing what it’s supposed to do.  I really hope he has to travel by light aircraft a lot during his campaign.

Doh!

https://x.com/PippaCrerar/status/1797711070863466889?t=KXa3b-VZtlnVBnHZlQ_GVw&s=19

Tories have 3 days and still have 100 candidates to find

What’s nuts is that the current tory chairman can’t seem to get one

https://x.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1797687404222115946?t=iNn5fKdoS5GPtesGmIFHrw&s=19

Btw if David Green truly believes that constitutional law is currently exciting he needs to get out more.

He does not, that’s purely your own supposition.

Tories have 3 days and still have 100 candidates to find

What’s nuts is that the current tory chairman can’t seem to get one

Yeah you would think that with a hundred seats to choose from the current Tory chairman wouldn’t be having any problems finding one.

Is he being awkward and expecting to find a winnable one?

He does not, that’s purely your own supposition.

So what does this mean ?

“If politics is exciting, like constitiutional law currently is”

He didn’t say it, the copyright was falsely attributed to him?

Apparently the safe one he was after the local party were so angry he decided not to

I don’t think it helps that he’s quite unlikeable & associated with their disastrous campaign

His partner is chief political correspondent at The Sun  – so wonder of there will be a backlash?

So what does this mean ?

“If politics is exciting, like constitiutional law currently is”

He didn’t say it, the copyright was falsely attributed to him?

Apologies, I forget that opposing opinions must be quashed without mercy. In this case I suspect he was, dare I say it of a lawyer, being flippant, but I welcome your correction.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8e83f02-7ab5-11e8-af48-190d103e32a4

Eh, I don’t give a monkeys what he said. One person suggested that one thing, you suggested that he didn’t say that. I don’t even know who he is.

I apologise for being snarky but here’s the thing – I think you make some (many!) valid points, some I agree with, some I don’t, but you can be SO uncompromising in your responses that it makes my teeth itch.

Tories have 3 days and still have 100 candidates to find

According to the Independent 6 hours ago they still had 141 to find!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-chairman-general-election-candidates-b2555800.html

Eh, I don’t give a monkeys what he said. One person suggested that one thing, you suggested that he didn’t say that. I don’t even know who he is.

I didn’t suggest he didn’t say it, I suggested that’s not what he truly believes.

Grant Shapps rings sky news presenter when he’s live on air

When he’s asked about the latest poll showing him losing his seat he just hangs up

https://x.com/supertanskiii/status/1797691969386528823?t=Uu0gVQl7hzhHz10BLEXZAQ&s=19

but you can be SO uncompromising in your responses

I’m sorry but I think general elections should be exciting,  apparently not everyone agrees.

You want me to comprise on my opinion on the matter because of what someone, who I have never heard of before, might or might not have said?

I actually think this general election is very exciting, although I thought the short clip I heard of Starmer’s speech today sounded dull. In contrast I thought Farage’s little speech was at least “interesting”.

I wasn’t trying to offend anyone by making that point. I had no idea that it might controversial.

Edit:

I suggested that’s not what he truly believes.

Oh okay, the subtlety was obviously lost on me. Presumably he was being sarcastic. Apologies for not picking up on his sarcasm.

I’m sorry but I think general elections should be excited, apparently not everyone agrees.

You want me to comprise on my opinion on the matter because of what someone, who I have never heard of before, might or might not have said?

I actually think this general election is very exciting, although I thought the short clip I heard of Starmer’s speech today sounded dull. In contrast I thought Farage’s little speech was at least “interesting”.

I wasn’t trying to offend anyone by making that point. I had no idea that it might controversial.

I’m sure you weren’t trying to offend, but it felt like you dove in with both feet on what an individual has said online whilst admitting you don’t know anything about them. I don’t know a lot about constitutional law but I’d bet my house that no-one on this planet finding it exciting – I subscribe to David Allen Green’s blog, he’s a constitutional lawyer and I’m sure he does not, and any suggestion that he may find it exciting is sardonic.

It’ll also end his whole, “in not one of the elites/ politicians” bs he comes up with.

I wouldn’t count on it. It’s not long since Liz Truss, the actual prime minister, was spouting this exact same crap…

Oh okay, the subtlety was obviously lost on me. Presumably he was being sarcastic. Apologies for not picking up on his sarcasm.

I’m sure he was, and no problem. To be fair, constitutional lawyers are not, I think, widely known for their dynamic sense of humour!

kimbers
Full Member
Grant Shapps rings sky news presenter when he’s live on air

They really are in total disarray. I cant get my head around how badly prepared they are for the GE. I mean, Sunak obviously surprised them too but we all knew the election was going to be in a matter of months time! There is just no pool of talent left in the party.

ernielynch

I’m sorry but I think general elections should be excited, apparently not everyone agrees.

I get what you mean but I’d substitute inspiring for exciting.

Id certainly agree it’s not inspiring but longer term in politics I want it all to be a bit boring to be honest. Just some quiet and hopefully competent government and less of the divisive crap as I’m just totally fed up with the constant stoking of culture war stuff the Tories and Reform etc are into.

It looks like knee jerk, headless chicken PANIIIIIIIIIC mode has been engaged at Tory Central Office, with Farages arrival

They’ve just announced a reduction in visa’s. As the polling comes in it’ll be leaving the ECHR and using U-boats to sink small boats in the channel

Worth noting that Reform still haven’t selected candidates in 150 odd seats and they include >60  sitting tory MPs

Those MPs will be counting themselves very lucky if they don’t manage to fill them in time

If he were PM eventually he will still hit the reality brick wall that all far right politicians eventually do simply because they make huge promises based on simple solutions.

A lot can happen between this above…

…and this truth below.

It never ends well.

Farage with power would be a very dangerous thing for us all.

We (and many other countries, not least the USA) need to stop viewing politics as entertainment, with fascism as just one of the players bringing colour to the performance.

They really are in total disarray. I cant get my head around how badly prepared they are for the GE.

I can’t get my head around how this evening’s party political broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party was all about Rishi Sunak and how great he is. Surely they are aware that he isn’t a great selling point and that his approval ratings are extraordinarily low?

Admittedly they might have struggled finding a Tory politician that is popular but they could have focused on other stuff like members of the public saying that they will be voting Tory, or pictures of tanks, or Nelson’s Column, or whatever it is that excites Tory voters. Not bleedin Sunak ffs.

If Farage and Reform do well it’ll change the political landscape in quite a revolutionary way. Starmer’s centrist labour party will essentially become the new one nation tory party with a minority of traditional labour types attempting to keep them honest, Reform could replace the tories as the lunatic rightwing opposition, and the tories will become a minor party a bit like the lib dems who don’t seem to know what their purpose is. Probably a bit far fetched but who knows what could happen as Farage is the only one giving a voice to the anti-establishment narrative (even if we all know it’s fake) which has a lot of support in thge general public.

Farage with power would be a very dangerous thing for us all.

Yeah, I glossed over a fair amount of effluent in my summary that’s for sure.

He loves the American healthcare model for a start, which is about as dysfunctional as it comes.

dazh

Farage is the only one giving a voice to the anti-establishment narrative

Absolutely true but it’s also his achilles heal. If he ever actually gains power, even as a lowly, solo MP, he *becomes* the establishment he says he desires and his whole MO is ultimately blown.

The same people that vote for him will the very first to desert him at the first sniff of him selling out.

As an MP, he will have more exposure, which he relishes but far more to live upto amongst his supporters. It’s a dangerous, double edged sword for him. Us too, perhaps…

I really think 5 years as an MP has the potential to be his downfall though.

Or… I’m spectacularly wrong.

Place your bets!

If Farage and Reform do well

I haven’t seen one single opinion poll which suggests that they will get any MPs, even though he was obviously suggesting this afternoon that they are likely to get loads.

I will be fairly surprised if he wins Clacton, I guess the size of the national Labour swing will have a bearing. A couple of weeks ago he himself obviously didn’t think that his chances were good enough to risk another humiliation.

Since then I suspect he has been listening to people who have exaggerated his appeal, although I guess he does have a reasonable chance.

Btw I think that Nigel Farage is probably a tad to the left of Suella Braverman, and she was Home Secretary So I don’t know how much of a huge departure from the far-right of the Tory Party he represents.

Btw I think that Nigel Farage is probably a tad to the left of Suella Braverman, and she was Home Secretary So I don’t know how much of a huge departure from the far-right of the Tory Party he represents.

Agree. Farage is far more like Johnson than Braverman or any of the other loons. Despite his obvious elitest background he manages to relate to normal people and represent their views far more than the likes of Starmer, Sunak, Braverman, Truss, Badenoch et al. Given the chance (which I also agree he won’t get) I reckon he’d bring in some policies much to the left of where Starmer currently is.

I get what you mean but I’d substitute inspiring for exciting.

I would settle for believable.

I will be fairly surprised if he wins Clacton

The FT poll tracker allows you to adjust the polling of parties to see what the outcome would be. Reform would need a greater percentage vote than the Tories to take Clacton and they would then have 37 seats (i.e. there are seats more winnable by Reform than Clacton), same as Tory and far less than LibDem. That’s not going to happen is it?

But I won’t downplay the Farage factor. Dropping him into any seat with a substantial Reform electorate will increase their share of the vote so perhaps Clacton or any other seat becomes the easiest for them to take. I wouldn’t bet my house on him winning though.

I reckon he’d bring in some policies much to the left of where Starmer currently is.

What’s your reasoning behind that?