Farage is, unsurprisingly, very selective about his reading of opinion polls. He says that it is now absolutely certain that Labour will win the general election, presumably based on the polls.
But he also says that Reform UK will take substantial votes from Labour despite all the poll evidence suggesting the opposite.
Over the last year support for Labour has remained remarkably stable, during that time support for Reform UK has almost trebled and support for the Tories has nosedived.
I think it is obvious where support for Reform UK is coming from.
From his little speech this afternoon I get the impression that typical for a demagogue he has an overinflated belief in his own popularity.
Obviously he is going to talk up his alleged appeal but I think much of it he probably genuinely believes. That must have played a part in his decision to stand 7 times for parliament despite never winning, how many other politicians have a similar record?