UK Election!

but I imagine the delightful Luke Akehurst will not be standing for Labour, good, he’s a nasty little *****

Eh? He’s been selected:

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/labour-loyalist-luke-akehurst-selected-29262889

He may be selected now but I imagine (or at least hope) he’ll be sidelined

As an aside here’s Liz Truss’s latest moment.

Liz Truss appears on Sarkon Of Arkad (Carl Benjamin) podcast The Lotus Eaters – link to Byline Times

Anyone dare/care to comment on the nature of the offence that got her suspended? You think she was right or making a valid point?

I think there was a small kernel of truth in it, but it was appallingly expressed and the subsequent furore was entirely predictable. However, she’s served her punishment.

He may be selected now but I imagine (or at least hope) he’ll be sidelined

He’s on the NEC, how is his selection not going to go through?!?!

He claims to be a lifelong zionist, surely that guarantees Labour Party candidature?

We’re not going to end up with a repeat of Kinnock throwing away an election are we?

We’re not going to end up with a repeat of Kinnock throwing away an election are we?

It’s not out of the question IMO.

We’re not going to end up with a repeat of Kinnock throwing away an election are we?

Same old Labour party – please, please wash your dirty laundry in private (or after you’ve won!). But no – let’s not do that – let’s get it all out in public beforehand, have a load of in-fighting, and risk it all.

I’m voting Labour – but often wonder why.

We’re not going to end up with a repeat of Kinnock throwing away an election are we?

It’s not out of the question IMO

It’s not over til the person of larger stature sings

All Starmer needs is a stoney beach and some waves. :)

There will always be infighting, they’re political parties. Knives in the back are the norm.

Ernie noted earlier in the thread that in his constituency the most left wing candidate is the LibDem, I’m beginning to think it’s not just his local candidate. Starmers pledges are long forgotten as the party lurches right.

I’d like to see just a hint of the welfare state and socialism without going as far as a 90 odd percent top tax rate or Corbyn’s 1974 rallying of the comrades. Just a few classic lefty priinciples such as we had under Edward Heath.

It’s not out of the question IMO

Of course it is. It has long been certain that the next UK PM will be Keir Starmer. The only people who might have genuinely doubted that appear to have been a few deluded Tory politicians.

Although the scare stories and dark suggestions of a Tory victory by those with vested interests in silencing any criticism of Starmer are obviously predictable.

The current situation is not comparable to 1992.

https://labourlist.org/2024/05/uk-general-election-poll-tracker-opinions-labour-lead/

Lots of variation in that set of polls.

Lots of variation in that set of polls.

The variation comes in because most pollsters are asking about current voting intentions, the Don’t Knows are excluded

The ones with the lowest labour leads (jl partners 12pt, opinium 14, more in common 17) all try and squeeze out who the DKs would vote for if they really had to, in that instance a further 5- 7% break for the Tories.

In this way they think it’s a more accurate representation of how people will vote on July 4th, but that assumes that a) they actually will vote & b) they’ll definitely vote tory

On top of that I think for almost all pollsters the numbers are weighted by how people voted at the previous GE, which is another assumption that favours the Tories (most of the DKs voted Tory last time)

The the weighted queezed numbers for JL partners look like this:

Labour: 40%
Conservatives: 28%
Reform UK: 12%
Lib Dems: 10%
Green: 5%

Unsqueezed but still weighted they look like this

Lab 43%
Con 26%
Reform 10%
LD 10%
Green 6%

Could you imagine Rishis face if he accidentally won? Would be like Boris and Gove on results day all over again.

I don’t think polls have ever been this wide at the start of a GE and then been wrong about the winner

As for starmer purging his troublenakrs

Yup we all underestimated how ruthless he was, he wants to win this GE and nothing is going to stand in his way.

Getting rid of MPs that could cause problems for him on a range of things: Ukraine, EU Israel, and others now rather than before the vote and definitely before they become rebel MPs in a Labour government makes sense.

I’m sure he’d rather face them as independents than troublesome headline grabbers on his own party.

where can i find details of the constitutional make up and financial/media backing for each of the two main parties.

Getting rid of MPs that could cause problems for him on a range of things: Ukraine, EU Israel, and others now rather than before the vote and definitely before they become rebel MPs in a Labour government makes sense.

Cos that worked so well for the Tories when they got rid of all the Remainers… 🤔

We’re not going to end up with a repeat of Kinnock throwing away an election are we?

even my Brexity, Tory-Voting builder mates said last week they’d vote Labour just for a change but some of them are now having second thoughts as they do not like the left.

but some of them are now having second thoughts as they do not like the left.

Starmers got that part covered 😉

When is Ed Davey going to admit he had an activity holiday booked and has forced the LibDems to arrange the campaign around it?

There’s still time for Labour to stuff it up

I’m trying to work out if its genius or madness from the Libdems. Would you take him seriously as a potential prime minister after the last 72hrs – of course not, but I’ve got about as much chance as become PM as he has so why try to make yourself look like you think it’s a possibility. I’m assuming they are working their arses off in a few constituencies and that’ll be about the end of it.

Kind of miss having the Lib Dems as a viable voting option. For some time political compass had them to the left of Labour. Now – who knows, not got a scooby about any of their current policies.

Now – who knows, not got a scooby about any of their current policies.

Doesn’t really matter.  If they don’t get invited to join a coalition then their policies are irrelevant.

If they do get invited then it’s up to the members to decide what their policies are.

There are only two reasons to vote Lib-Dem.  The first is because they are the only option to beat the local Tory in your seat.  The second is that you have no idea what any policies should be and you want the 70,000 or so LibDem members to decide for you.

Lots of variation in that set of polls.

Well they are opinion polls with a 3% margin of error, it would strange if there wasn’t.

Certain things are however remarkably consistent. Firstly not one single poll since the beginning of October last year has given the Tories more than 30% of the vote.

And secondly not one single poll since August 2021 has placed Labour on less than 40%.

This is borne out by by-election results.

Furthermore none of the polls in the first week of the election campaign are showing any significant shift in favour of the Tories. There is only 5 weeks until the general election, time has all but run out.

Obviously anything is “possible”……. for example Reform UK “could” win the general election. But the reality is that Rishi Sunak is toast.

Ernielynch : Eh? He’s been selected:

Luke Akehurst has deleted 2000+ tweets in the last few weeks, I hope someone has them saved as it’ll be amusing to see Starmer explain away his blatant Islamophobia and calling all Gaza residents rats that should be drowned (not quite word for word perfect but he’s deleted the specific tweet)

Luke Akehurst has deleted 2000+ tweets in the last few weeks

I wasn’t aware. But if no one is too right-wing for Starmer’s Labour Party I doubt that anyone is too islamophobic/pro-zionist.

Who has been expelled from the Labour Party for being islamophobic? No one! Despite the Forde Report’s very serious accusations of islamophobia within the Labour Party.

Labour: 40%
Conservatives: 28%
Reform UK: 12%
Lib Dems: 10%
Green: 5%

a lot depends on where those votes get cast though – if you take a reform voter in a safe seat (for anyone) they’ll likely vote reform, but if they’re in a swing seat they may tend to vote tory (as that is better than labour for a lot of them) swinging the vote where it matters most.

FWIW I don’t think labour will lose, but I think it’ll be a lot closer than that looks – greens will end up with <1% of the seats, lib dems around 2% – time will tell whether reform get any (ukip never did in a full election)

Who has been expelled from the Labour Party for being islamophobic? No one! Despite the Forde Report’s very serious accusations of islamophobia within the Labour Party.

Who did it name?

154 of Forde’s 165 recommendations have been taken up.

greens will end up with <1% of the seats, lib dems around 2% – time will tell whether reform get any (ukip never did in a full election)

This all depends on the targeting, doesn’t it? One of these parties is far better at that than the other two, and you’ll know by now if you’re in a target seat by the number of Focus leaflets you’ve had.

Well they are opinion polls with a 3% margin of error, it would strange if there wasn’t.

Best 27 pt lead for Labour or at worst a 12pt lead.

I’m not sure what that even begins to tell us. So which poll is more valid then? The margin of error doesn’t account for that difference.

(Just seen Kimbers post) but my point still stands which is the most valid poll? I guess that’s down to assumptions.

I’m trying to work out if its genius or madness from the Libdems. Would you take him seriously as a potential prime minister after the last 72hrs – of course not

Worked for Johnson, sort of.

The problem is it does seem to be the only way for the libdems to get any attention vs Labour, tories and ukip.

The second is that you have no idea what any policies should be and you want the 70,000 or so LibDem members to decide for you.

That strikes me as an odd comment. Surely you can say the same re. any other party?

That strikes me as an odd comment. Surely you can say the same re. any other party?

Not really.

If you are Labour or Tory then you’re in it to win it.  If you win then at least notionally you’re supposed to follow through with your election pledges.

If you’re a minor party then you have a core focus and if you get a sniff of power then you cover yourself in petrol and go about threatening to burn everything down if you don’t get your demands met ( see the DUP).

Lib-Dems don’t have a core focus and don’t have the clout to implement their policies.  You don’t find out what they are going to do until after the election when the members get together to decide what everyone who voted for them actually voted for.

Surely you can say the same re. any other party?

Labour and the tories arent overly keen on the members having a say. So its whatever their mps and donors want.

I am not sure thats an improvement over the Libdem members though.

@dissonance Big problem we have is national TV that are determined to pretend we’ve a two party system, while inviting Farage onto QT. So they’ve got to be noticed somehow and I don’t think anyone is pretending Davey will be PM (not least as that went badly in 2019).

@slowoldman The difference is that the LD membership have a direct say in policy unlike Lab or the Tories.

You don’t find out what they are going to do until after the election when the members get together to decide what everyone who voted for them actually voted for.

That’s not quite true – policy is set at conference ahead of time, situation you described is what happened in 2010 with the potential coalition.

https://x.com/AdamBienkov/status/1796193024269062167?t=YRszi5TICVpiJL-XUcwGng&s=19

Further proof that Sunak is utterly out of touch, has zero empathy and should never be allowed anywhere near Real People.

The quote tweets are worth a read too.
Horrific.

Sunak: Mickey Mouse degrees will be banned!

Photographers:

(Just seen Kimbers post) but my point still stands which is the most valid poll? I guess that’s down to assumptions.

It doesn’t matter which is the most valid. Just look at what they all say.

Every single opinion poll since August 2021 has given Labour at least 40% of the vote. And every single opinion poll since the beginning of October last year has given the Tories less than 30%.

Since nothing has changed in the first week of the general election campaign, and whilst we can’t obviously know the result of the general election, we can very reasonably conclude that Labour will get at least 40% of the vote and the Tories are unlikely to get much more than 30%.

There is no realistic scenario in which the Tories will win.

I think it’s reasonable to assume Lab will win with an outright majority too.