UK Election!

Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?

That said, it could come to pass

It seems….. unlikely though

Think i might skip this thread for a day

I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.

The latest People Polling poll for GB News has Labour on 36%, although they also have the Tories on 16% so possibly not a very reliable poll.

People Polling is Matt Goodwins (GBNews fave, brexiteer & Trump fan) outfit it’s very partisan, asks very leading questions & has thrown up some crazy numbers over the last few weeks, eg 0 seats for SNP

I’d take it with a bucket of salt

The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.

Wasn’t it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?

Honestly, whilst the overall percentage will be relevant (to some) for a political mandate for the governing party, it’s pretty irrelevant to where we’ll be on Friday morning.  I think this election will be the most  heavily reliant on constituency nuance of any election in my lifetime. 4 or more parties sharing 95% of each individual constituency vote in pretty sizable slices each is going to make it so complex to model. In fact, has any polling company ever modelled anything like this before? This many parties with double digit popularity in each constituency in a FPTP system is basically unprecedented.

argee
Full Member
Think i might skip this thread for a day

I’m hoping that in a few weeks from not I’ll be less likely to be reading the thread or at least reading about policy discussion rather than the absolute corruption and daily disasters the Tories have inflicted upon us.

I want a return to boring politics basically.

Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?

Getting 30% would be catastrophic for the Tories.

They got 3O.7% in 1997 when they were down to 165 seats.

Andrea Jenkyns was just interviewed on Radio 4.

Blah, blah, blah… supermajority… blah, blah, blah… teaching there’s 70 different genders in schools… blah, blah, blah… net zero……. blah, blah, blah… woke…… … blah, blah, blah… not harsh enough on immigration.

Basically just the usual culture war bollocks. Its literally all they’ve got left. The upshot was that the Tories aren’t right wing enough and need to be closer to Reform That seems to be the general consensus amongst the right wing headbangers who are going to be the only ones left to in the Tory Party after tomorrow

My prediction is that after 6 months of fighting like rats in a sack, with Badanoch or Braverman as leader, a purge of anyone left who isn’t completely mental,  the Tory party will be Reform in all but name and there won’t be a fag paper between the two of them on policy

In some good news, the BBC are reporting that very wealthy people are selling properties in anticipation of Labour raising capital gains tax

The problem kimbers is that it is very similar to the Survation poll which does have credibility.

Wasn’t it Survation who most accurately predicted the 2017 general election result?

Was that not their MRP?,  it’s only a few percent either way but having reform ahead of the tories has a huge impact on seat numbers so will be interesting to see what it really looks like

I think the STW tradition is that announcing it instead of just doing it is called flouncing.

No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.

Will Rishi’s departure for California be a “flounce” or are we already installing the fastest closing door in the world so that he departs with  a very visible wallop ..

why can’t labour just make huge promises for change

Why should they? All they need to do to secure a huge majority is to get through today without saying anything silly.

Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%

And how has all that wealth been used?

Tories on 18% would be catastrophic for them, no?

BBC Poll Tracker shows Tories on 21% but also points out that in general polls can be 5% either side .

No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.

Or is that called – I actually have a job and need to do sh1t

Bullshit.

No further comment.

Care to elaborate? Does Starmer’s minimal ambition and wafer thin manifesto give you any confidence that they will do anything other than the bare minimum? I’m not wholly pessimistic, I’ve already said they’ll make a big difference in the NHS and wider public sector (more than others on here seem to think they will do), but lets be honest that’s the very minimum that is expected from a labour govt. I see no real evidence that they plan to do anything else of note, because the labour machine these days is focused on one thing above everything else, and that’s winning power by not making any ‘unrealistic’ promises.

Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy. You can’t have people arrested for holding some banners up… yet.

Gulf War Veterans protesting against Johnny Mercer@AndyR960 @JU5TICE4VETERAN

If you live in Plymouth Moor View and you'd like to remove Johnny Mercer please visit https://t.co/IIpEobUCuf

Enter your post code

The most likely candidate to beat Mercer is Labour candidate… pic.twitter.com/2Y7gecAE5J

— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) July 3, 2024

They know they don’t have to be restricted by the nonsense ‘country like a household’ financial analogy so I’m quietly confident they’ll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.

We will see on that one.

They just have to simply make-up another set of fiscal rules.  Currently using OBR for modelling in 5 years time based on subsequent expected growth is an utter disaster waiting to happen.

I’m not very confident at all and I believe they will run the country to balance.

But, it will be one thing where I would love a massive u-turn.

(Spooking markets needs to bugger off really. Country needs massive fixes – markets will understand inherently that putting government investment in place offers a real return on the ground, and follows good for people good for markets. But that way around. Asset markets have had it great for a few years with interest income. It’s time they slotted back into their pecking order whilst the country rebuilds. A larger deficit is almost part and parcel of this.)

However when interest rates get cut – expect a bit of a boom but then markets will slump back due to lack of interest payments and net government drains.  That won’t be Labour’s fault. But will be intrinsically blamed on them. I reckon that’s back end of 2025. But who knows economic predictions tend to go wayward when something blows up.

Labour aren’t getting growth without spending anyway so let’s see where they go with that.

And how has all that wealth been used?

I think I know the answer to that one…

For the benefit of the ruling class!

What have I won?

No, l that would be a stealth flounce where people just disappear mid argument.

That is bollocks and you bloody kn……..

What have I won?

A seat in the Lords

Arise Lord Ernesto of Croydonshire

Johnny Mercer and his wife seem to be struggling with the finer details of what it means to live in a democracy.

Mercers wife is quite a piece of shit, as is mercer to be honest.

Had one Labour leaflet through today, addressed to all three of us old enough to vote.

Had a load of assorted bumf through yesterday. Some of it for candidates in the neighbouring constituency.

I see The Scum has come out for Labour, murdoch doesnt like to back a loser

Murdoch trying to increase market share in Liverpool?

A seat in the Lords

Arise Lord Ernesto of Croydonshire

Now that I really want to see :-)

last MRP

More In Common has

Labour: 430 seats 39%

Conservatives: 126 23%

Liberal Democrats: 52 14%

Scottish National Party: 16 2%

Reform UK: 2 13%  (Anderson, Farage)

Plaid Cymru: 2

Green Party: 1 6%

Other: 2 (including Corbyn)

polls have finally tightened, but depending on how big & where the Reform vote falls Tory numbers could show big differences

Well thats me done. Last (targetted) leaflets dropped, in typically Tory drizzle. Hopefully we’ll be getting a Labour government tomorrow and the sun can come back out and Engerland will play better on Saturday :D

Don’t forget your ID tomorrow when you go to vote folks, if you’ve not done your postal vote already

Now that I really want to see 🙂

ernie in ermine?

polls have finally tightened

My only concern is if a lot of the undecided (not sure what they need to decide now, an asteroid heading for earth with Sponsored by the Conservatives emblazoned upon it?) are actually shy Tory/Reform voters.

If Tory, that’s bad, if Reform then I’m ambivalent.

Basically I’m terrified to to have hope .

I’m not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher here…

ernie in ermine?

I’ll doff my cap to him

:-)

ernie in ermine?

depending whether you think he has dickish tendencies or not (I couldn’t possibly comment ;-) )

penis in furs

I’m not into football but it must be a little like when England are taking penalties but the stakes are infinitely higher

Careful….. we change Governments typically every 10-15 years. We haven’t won anything at Football for 58 years. Would i swap a Labour government for winning the Euros.

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.

.

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absolutely not.

A world cup, however…. ;-)

The polling has only moved a touch, but the gap between Tory and Labour is still very large. I’m trying to keep hopeful and not to expect a massive majority, but would be happy if it did transpire. The poll of polls are showing a highly likely historic/landmark win for Labour, bigger than Blair in ’97. As mentioned many pages back, the main feeling will be a temporary relief rather than euphoria, but that’ll do. That’ll more than do.

“Are you in finance?” pic.twitter.com/SUZLOiUHVg

— Dom Joly (@domjoly) July 3, 2024

I feel like I did as a kid on Christmas Eve. Genuinely excited. A large majority would be ace but I’ll just be pleased to see the incompetent, self serving and morally corrupt Tories out of government, even if just by one seat.

The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.

The problem with Labour is they always try and walk it in.

Just been for a walk down shops. There is a huge long row of bungalows high up on a grass bank. Not a single political poster up. Apart from one bungalow.

I hardly know the occupants apart from a few fleeting conversations over the years. Two brothers live there.

On the large bay window I see 3 small Vote Labour posters up and a small poster mentioning the actual candidate, with her picture on it.

I smile.

As I walk a little further I see that on the other side of the bay window there is another poster that’s says Vote Green. I smile even more.

I’m guessing there had been a healthy political debate going on there.

… And I do mean healthy.👍😁

I’ll make sure I chat to them a little more in the future.

ernie in ermine?

If the mods permanently change his username to ErmineErnie I’ll throw another tenner in the pot!

Hoping for as many delicious Portillo moments as possible. Rees Mogg for starters! Oh please make it happen!

Ouch.

“Britain will not rejoin EU in my lifetime, says Starmer”

Does he really really have to go this far this late in the campaign?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/03/britain-will-not-rejoin-eu-in-my-lifetime-says-starmer?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Good job the debate is about boring leaders rather than policy and ideas.

Final YouGov MRP shows Labour on course for historic election victory

Labour: 431 (+229 from GE2019 result)
Con: 102 (-263)
Lib Dem: 72 (+61)
SNP: 18 (-30)
Reform UK: 3 (+3)
Plaid: 3 (-1)
Green: 2 (+1)

Fieldwork: 19 June – 2 Julyhttps://t.co/JxacgEVIPW pic.twitter.com/g8G2mtbGTn

— YouGov (@YouGov) July 3, 2024