UK Election!

You mean – why can’t labour just lie?

Absolutely this. Remember that the Tories got an 80 seat majority by promising the moon on a stick

Remember all those promised shiny new hospitals? Remember the money that was promised to ‘forgotten’ northern towns? Remember the ‘benefits of Brexit’? Global Britain?

Yeah, well so does everyone else, which is why they’re about to be (rightfully) decimated electorally. It was all a pack of undeliverable pie-in-the-sky fantasies and outright lies

If labour does the same, they’ll suffer the same fate. Its going to take a decade to even make an impact on 14 years of damage done, so promising you’re going to clear it all up in a couple of years is just bollocks and everyone knows its bollocks, because they’ve had the last 5 years of bollocks and look where we all are

yeah because the markets definitely wouldnt go full Truss on us, especially for the latter!

There are quite a few economists, other financial people and politicians (including Gordon Brown)  in favour of it to some degree.

Pretty much every other central bank does a tiered system where only a portion of the reserves gets the full interest rates. The idea of paying interest on them is a relatively new one and one invented during the low interest years so it does deserve review now.

Anyone experienced it? Hopefully targeted at swing voters

No – possibly because I already share and read left leaning stuff so it’s not worth it for me; possibly because this is a safe Labour seat.

Its going to take a decade to even make an impact o 14 years of damage done

I’m sure they are focusing on quick wins that have the highest profile. What do we think they might be?

What do we think they might be?

Massive injection of cash into the NHS and a pay deal with junior doctors. They’ll spend billions paying for people to be treated in private hospitals. That will annoy traditionalists but that and the end to strikes will bring waiting lists down very quickly.

Think we’ll also see a huge injection of cash into local authorities. That will filter through to an immediate improvement in local services which will be visible to everyone in their local communities. Suddenly bins will start to be collected on time, streets and parks will be a bit cleaner, and there’ll be more xmas decorations (daft I know but it will be noticed).

and look where we all are

Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%, so things could be and have been far far worse.

Still, expect very little from a Labour government……”a decade to even make an impact”?

If that attitude prevails I think it is safe to say that Nigel Farage will be a very serious threat in 2029.

The only thing that matters now is 2029, not tomorrow’s election which will indisputably result in Keir Starmer becoming PM.

If labour does the same, they’ll suffer the same fate

Only if they never actually tried to do what they promised.  Due to their massive lack of ambition or trying to do anything to get any meaningful change that have made sure they don’t have to live up to any promises.

The tories could have put more money into northern towns and they could have started building loads of hospitals.  They didn’t, which is the problem.

I was in local government in 97. Overnight we went from zero money to spend on services to plenty. It made an enormous difference to communitys

If labour does the same, they’ll suffer the same fate. Its going to take a decade to even make an impact on 14 years of damage done

The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done. What happens after is largely irrelevant to them as all they’ve ever been bothered about is winning power. Just like with Blair, they will waste the opportunity of a lifetime to actually do anything transformative or long lasting. Binners nicely demonstrates the shocking lack of ambition at the heart of the current labour party. I can only hope that there is still enough residual energy and amibition in the PLP to pressure Starmer into doing something much bigger than his public pronouncements but I’m not optimistic.

Just received an email from the LibDems about “blanket” last minute digital advertising by Labour. Anyone experienced it?

Almost every Youtube ad I’ve seen past few days has been a Labour one, not seen a single Conservative ad.

I was in local government in 97. Overnight we went from zero money to spend on services to plenty. It made an enormous difference to communitys

You sure you are remembering that right? Remember Brown’s promise to follow Tory spending plans for 2 years? I was in state funded teaching in that 2 year wait….I remember the staff meetings discussing what we were going to do when the funding came through. The photocopier literally had to have the dust blown off it and suddenly you could give out handouts and workbooks to do actual learning from. But that was 99 not 97.

Well not in a great place but the 6th largest economy in the world is not in recession and inflation is 2%, so things could be and have been far far worse.

The inflation / growth figures look like a horrible dead cat bounce though.

Inflation is falling rapidly as energy prices fall, which means they could well end up negative.  Which is crippling for growth, consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow.  Companies stop investing because the ROI calculations tell them their bank account will be worth more than the potential asset.

Growth is tiny, if we’re hit with deflation that will certainly be wiped out.

I’ve said it before, Rishi isn’t an idiot, he’s a money man, I’m sure he’s called the election now for a reason.

You sure you are remembering that right?

Yes.

The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.

You are saying that like is any everyday occurrence that you can reliably see a pattern from. I’m 52 and in my useful memory (i.e. ignoring when I was a toddler) Labour has previously come to power precisely once.

The inflation / growth figures look like a horrible dead cat bounce though.

Inflation is falling rapidly as energy prices fall, which means they could well end up negative.  Which is crippling for growth, consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow.  Companies stop investing because the ROI calculations tell them their bank account will be worth more than the potential asset

There is an easy solution to that, as neoliberalism has spent 40+ years claiming that wage growth drives inflation, we can surely stave off deflation by increasing wages.

Remember Brown’s promise to follow Tory spending plans for 2 years?

Just as well that Starmer and Reeves haven’t sabotaged themselves with that ball and chain then. They’ve committed to not raising taxes on workers and made conservative noises about spending but AFAIK they haven’t committed to spending restrictions. It’s literally the only hope I have for this labour government. They know they don’t have to be restricted by the nonsense ‘country like a household’ financial analogy so I’m quietly confident they’ll get away with as much spending as they can that will not spook the markets.

I prefer Reform having next to no MPs. Of course I’d love the greens and maybe some lib dems to be in govt but for now keeping Reform at bay should be the singular focus and FPTP is currently the best way of doing that. When Reform are long gone and their populist bullshit is marginalised after 10 years of public service improvement and better living standards we can think about PR. Until then though we need to do everything we can to keep Reform as far away from power as possible.

This reads like dangerous wishful thinking to me. I think it’s also entirely possible that FPTP hands Reform UK a majority in 2029, with our fawning media continuing to fan the flames, the Conservative Party thrashing about for political space between Labour and Reform UK, and Labour themselves increasingly unpopular in our continuing slide into inequality and mass poverty under firmly Reaganite/Thatcherite economic policy and again constantly denigrated by the media as in the late 00s.

38% now ffs.

https://x.com/Survation/status/1808427141400330357

there seems to be a surge in reform taking votes who were probably DKs voting labour to give Tories a kicking

Reform polling very well with 18-24 men, they have a strong tiktok & facebook game & the likes of Andrew Tate are heavily pushing Farage at the moment

this is going to be a problem for the country going forward

Englishmen watch this video.

Vote @reformparty_uk on July 4th. pic.twitter.com/mLrMYu1dfA

— Tristan Tate (@TateTheTalisman) July 2, 2024

consumers stop buying as they know prices will be lower tomorrow.

You are the first person that I have heard raise the spectre of deflation since the global credit crisis. A Labour government dealt with it then and there is no reason why the next Labour government couldn’t also deal with it.

Unless you have a problem with budgetary deficits? I don’t think the electorate will buy that Tory-LibDem bollocks again, do you?

I think it’s also entirely possible that FPTP hands Reform UK a majority in 2029

How on earth do you think Reform are going to overturn a 200+ majority in 2029 from the position of (probably) having a couple of MPs? Even if they are very lucky and get everything right and continually build support and replace the tories as the effective opposition, it’ll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour’s majority to the point where they can win themselves. It would take a revolution to overturn the bias towards labour and the tories that FPTP provides.

They’ll spend billions paying for people to be treated in private hospitals. That will annoy traditionalists but that and the end to strikes will bring waiting lists down very quickly.

Paying billions to private hospitals will make the situation worse not better.  1) there is no spare capacity or very little in private health.  2) private hos[pitals are no able to deal with complex cases, 3) private hospitals are more expensive than the NHS

BMA and the other professional bodies are all telling Streeting the same thing – this is the wrong approach and will make things worse.  He has also promised massive reform – which again will make things worse as it sucks up energy, time and money

What is actually needed is to get rid of the remaining nonsense from the fake market and a large injection of cash

Andrew Tate are heavily pushing Farage at the moment

Is Andrew Tate still claiming to be a Muslim?

I suspect that many of his followers are.

Corbyn the communist’s manifesto for socialist revolution.

corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto

Just as well that Starmer and Reeves haven’t sabotaged themselves with that ball and chain then. They’ve committed to not raising taxes on workers and made conservative noises about spending but AFAIK they haven’t committed to spending restriction

~They have very clearly

I don’t agree with all of this politico-intellectual snobbery against people with lower rates of formal literacy, especially when it comes to their health.

I think initially it was snobbery it was a demonstratable way of showing how poor literacy rates are in this country.

They have very clearly

Have they? Where in the manifesto does it say they will stick to tory spending plans? Reeves is planning a budget in the autumn, that would suggest some significant changes in spending plans, not sticking to what we already have.

corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto

Err, yeah I know, I was joking.

You are the first person that I have heard raise the spectre of deflation since the global credit crisis. A Labour government dealt with it then and there is no reason why the next Labour government couldn’t also deal with it.

Unless you have a problem with budgetary deficits? I don’t think the electorate will buy that Tory-LibDem bollocks again, do you?

Different causes though.

2008- the problem was the financial industries collapse leading to a crash in the wider economy, and everyone having to cut back which lead to deflation. You can solve that with an injection of cash to cause a bit of inflationary pressure.

Now, deflation is just happening because energy prices have/are dropping, albeit I think we’ve probably hit the new normal now.  The direct solution to that scenario would be to prop up energy prices.  Politically that would be impossible, windfall taxes are probably the most palatable proxy.  In a closed system you could use that to boost spending on energy intensive things like infrastructure projects, but in the real world probably just as well off spending it on public sector pay rises where the money trickles through quickly to boost the retail side of the economy.

Englishmen watch this video.

Didnt they sod off overseas due to the fact the UK has some inconvenient laws about sexual consent?

corbyns manifesto was a perfectly normal (in a European context) social democratic left of centre manifesto

And how do you think that would have gone for him in the last couple of elections in our European neighbours?

I’m not saying it did not have personal appeal. But it’s not where the general public is right now. Right wing populism is coming and coming fast and the electable alternative to fend it off is not a party to the left of where Starmer has positioned the 2024 version of Labour I don’t think.

 it’ll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour’s majority to the point where they can win themselves. It would take a revolution to overturn the bias towards labour and the tories that FPTP provides.

the electorate have never been this swingable, the Lib Dems are likely to go from 8 to near 80- seats since 2019 the Tories from 376 to less than 76

I wouldnt be complacent about Reform, Labour need to deliver, not just on the NHS, but rebuild high streets & community centres, give the young opportunities, energy prices, housing….

it’ll still take at least 2 or 3 election cycles to erode Labour’s majority to the point where they can win themselves.

Not in today’s political climate I fear.

With an 80 seat majority the Tories could reasonably have expected to win the following general election, and not instead faced what will likely be their worst general election defeat in at least a hundred years.

Politics across the Western hemisphere has become volatile and unpredictable, and we are entering new political territory.

I have no doubt that how well the incoming Labour government preforms for the next 5 years will have a profound effect on how well Reform UK do in 2029.

I doubt that the Tories will regain their credibility in 5 short years. Look how long the LibDems struggled with their credibility after the disaster that was Nick Clegg.

The aim should be to offer voters another radical alternative to Nigel Farage/UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform UK. And that’s going to be one helluva task.

The aim should be to offer voters another radical alternative to Nigel Farage/UKIP/Brexit Party/Reform UK. And that’s going to be one helluva task.

I agree, people want an answer to the question of how do we sort things out, which is what Reform are offering. It’s largely the wrong answer, but no one is standing up and giving an alternative.

The problem with labour is that as soon as they are in office on Friday they’ll see it as job done.

Bullshit.

No further comment.

Now, deflation is just happening because energy prices have/are dropping, albeit I think we’ve probably hit the new normal now.

The fluctuations of energy prices do not reflect inflation, even if they are calculated as part of inflationary pressures.

They often reflect global events which have nothing to do with the state of an economy.

Edit: And good luck if you think that falling energy costs will be reflected in consumer prices of goods and services! That suggests a very naive faith in the claimed benefits of neoliberalism!

Why Starmer should now play prosecutor on Brexit – interesting erad in the FT – don’t think it is paywalled

https://www.ft.com/content/b828868f-6ee8-4520-b101-586dffec63ce

Binners’ campaigning is starting to take effect.

If binners had really had something to do with it, there would have been colouring in too. And maybe some pastry flakes.

susepic
Full Member
Why Starmer should now play prosecutor on Brexit – interesting erad in the FT – don’t think it is paywalled

https://www.ft.com/content/b828868f-6ee8-4520-b101-586dffec63ce

I cant read it unfortunately, I know there is a hack to bypass the pay wall but I can never remember it. Lol

The latest People Polling poll for GB News has Labour on 36%, although they also have the Tories on 16% so possibly not a very reliable poll.

On the other hand Survation does have a reasonable track record and they put Labour on 38% and the Tories on 18%

Survation also claims to be 99% certain that Labour will do better tomorrow than they did in the 1997 landslide victory, which I find hugely reassuring.

However accurate that Survation prediction might be it points to at least a massive majority for Labour.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/3/labour-99-percent-certain-to-beat-blairs-uk-election-landslide-poll

Think i might skip this thread for a day, the amount of absolute dross about Labour on here, you’d think it was Farage himself posting it as it’s that baseless and negative 🤣

Anyway, tomorrow i will be voting tactically, again, Lib Dems only hope to bin the current tory MP, to be fair she’s a decent candidate who actually does a load of stuff in the area over the last few years, here’s hoping.