UK Election!

If they had been spread out over a few days neither of us would have thought anything about it, but so many in the same mail delivery is ridiculous.

If yours is anything like our delivery office then they have probably sat around building up until there is enough staff around to sort them or they’ve been told they have until tomorrow to get rid of all the election shite. Many houses on my round got them all(including binface) today and many more will tomorrow.

Then there’s baker of course, and jenkyns. And anyone in the ‘star chamber’

I’m pretty sure Baker will be toast in Wycombe – it’s come along way since the days of 20k conservative majorities.

I’ve taken friday off to watch some of the Portillo moments – which will hopefully get a whole round of new names, like a Mordaunt, Rees-Mogg, Sunak moment – whatever.

I have beer wine and crisps in stock for an all nighter but I don’t know how long I will last. Thanks for the timetable kimbers,  Looks like my constituency won’t be called until 5am so I might not make it. As kimbers says the exit polls are usually pretty accurate and I reckon we’ll have a fairly decent idea of the eventual outcome by the early hours. I would like to stay up long enough to see some big hitters get kicked out though.

I’ve just had a Tory leaflet through the door. My constituency has been continuously Labour since 1935…

I have a fear about the reality of Friday morning not being as tory-crushingly-wondrous as maybe some of us hope.

Yep, I’ve got this fear that it’ll be “OK” – not enough for electoral wipeout or even enough to force a frantic scrabbling leadership challenge in the Tory Party, potentially “enough” that Labour get 4 years of just about beginning to fix things before the Tories come back in again.

That’d be a true disaster.

Thursday night I dont plan to stay up too late and tbh Ive been far too disappointed too often over the lats few years

I feel your pain Kimbers, but, but, I am for the first time in 8 years feeling a tiny bit optimistic that change might be happening. I regret I didn’t stay up for Portillo in 97, so I am going to try and stay up and celebrate the SeeYous getting their comeuppance on Thursday night/Friday morning (and will only go to bed if i can’t cope with the joy, or it becomes apparent that Putin has rigged it again). Hoping my major disappointment is MadNadz not throwing up on someone’s shoes

If you really want a K, your best bet is to try to get a top job where it comes automatically.  Like becoming the DPP, or a senior civil servant.

If you really want a K, your best bet is to try to get a top job where it comes automatically. Like becoming the DPP, or a senior civil servant.

Or where you make such a difference that someone feels you deserve to be nominated.

Just for balance.

Which is pretty **** insulting to my lad who went to a failing secondary but graduated last week from Cambridge and has a great graduate job lined up, while continuing to work and support the youth groups and organisations that supported him.

Has be been knighted already? Blimey!

It’s a scam, and in my experience those that succeed aren’t the hardest and smartest, they are the bullshitters, the backstabbers and the sociopaths

Just to join the chorus of calling out this bullshit. I’ve not done badly IMHO, I cant plead to have come from poverty although neither of my parents went to uni and growing up things always seemed tight. But I did in fact work hard, get into a good course at a good uni, moved away, got a well paying job in engineering and upwards from there.

I don’t think I’ve stabbed anyone in the back, and don’t consider myself a sociopath or to have bullshitted to get here. Just a bit of intelligence, a lot of hard work, and leveraging those to get a decent wage.

On the fear of a poor result: I do share that to an extent. But the polling average seems convincing, and even if you took Labour’s worst current polling, and Tory best, and included a 5% margin of error in favour of squeezing both (a compound of unlikely scenarios), I’m pretty sure there would be pretty clear daylight in the order of 10% points between the two. Even electoral calculus high and low seat scenarios would still have a labour majority of over 150…anyone know the current ‘least percentage’ poll for labour and current ‘best’ for Tory?

EDIT: I meant to say that even a lower seat prediction for labour has a commanding majority to get things done, but it would be sad if some of the big buffoons of the tory party aren’t soundly kicked out by the electorate.

what are peoples plans on election night?

Drink. Heavily. Remote job interview Friday lunchtime – que sera… :)

Just seen the latest poll and tactical voting options for our area. Another term of Prunella Braverman for us as LD and Lab split the vote. Between them they are currently wiping the floor with her, but we know what result that brings. I haven’t had a winning vote in 20yrs, and it looks like more of the same. Would have been amazing to see her go, what a year she would have. First she wins Dick of the Year, then she gets sacked, and then she loses her seat. 2 out of 3 mean she stays on the gravy train.

Last redfield poll before GE has a bit of swing from reform back to Tory, which seems real as farage melts under scrutiny

Labour leads the Conservatives by 19% in our final poll.

?? Westminster Voting Intention (28 June – 2 July):

Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)

Changes +/- 26-27 Junhttps://t.co/Gqxhaep27s pic.twitter.com/rSL165T2uk

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) July 2, 2024

Tories would just about hang in as official opposition

@thisisnotaspoon I don’t like speaking for other people but read what MSP was replying to. Unless you or the previous posters child have been knighted then you’re not the subject of that remark.

@squirrelking , they were replying to me ………

My prediction: whatever the result nationally, Farage will win and that will be all the presenters go on about and top the rolling 5 minute news updates ad infinitum. He is news catnip.

Another term of Prunella Braverman for us as LD and Lab split the vote. Between them they are currently wiping the floor with her, but we know what result that brings.

Fareham? Damn – I was rather hoping reform would do for her. There’s a good underbelly of tossers in Fareham who you’d think would lap him up. But I guess she is Reform in all but name, so that’s worked in her favour. Moved out of the constituency before she came along. My parents in law are voting there and voting Tory. Typical daily mail reading, brexit voting, ‘its the immigrants that have ruined the country’, poorly educated, poorly read, small minded, small lives lived, glass half empty god’s waiting clingons that make me proud to be British. My sympathies to you and Fareham. In a few months you’ll be proud to say the leader of the opposition  is your gal – that’ll be quite the moment.

Probably been done but Jonathan pie has nailed it on YouTube.

Yes it’s all in jest maybe

I’m going to watch the exit polls and a bit of punditry, then go to bed and hope to get up at 3am to watch all the Portillo moments live.

My bet: Tories get 150 seats, Farage-the-Fascist wins Clacton but nowhere else, turnout is good at 60%.

Or where you make such a difference that someone feels you deserve to be nominated.

Just for balance.

That is your second best bet.

Well my predictions look like all being wrong so I am carrying on my tradition of being useless at predictions.  I thought the polls would narrow and that reform would step down to help the tories.  Neither have happened

I will be delighted if the To0ries do get a tiny ( comparatively) number of seats but I fear that this will just cement in the labour party collective mind that they have to be right wing to win – whereas its obvious to me this is a tory loss not a labour win.  Ho hum.

I do think Starmer will be a competent PM – I just wish he hadn’t surrounded himself with such a right wing bunch and was less timid

@convert – You have the situation nailed to a tee. Reform have actually sneaked up a bit on Lib Dems over the last week but won’t be a threat, quite amazing how your in-laws appear to be exactly the people that surround us in Fareham. Really racist, vote Reform, only a little bit racist unless drunk, vote Suella.

Quick edit: I didn’t mean to sugest your in-laws were racist, they probably arent, but it appears a lot here are.

Quick edit: I didn’t mean to sugest your in-laws were racist, they probably arent, but it appears a lot here are.

Well, drinking would be admitting some joy into their lives so obviously not going to happen……but mildly racist when their guard’s down would be pretty accurate.

@thisisnotaspoon Pff, facts are not welcome here. (seriously though I read it that he was talking about the idea that a normal person working hard can be knighted creates a false impression that some “haven’t worked enough” and as such don’t feel valued. Those that have achieved that, in his experience, are the backstabbers he refers to.)

@msp?

Good takedown of Labours so called private investment to drive growth, certainly a better explanation of why it is a terrible policy than I managed a few weeks back

Labour is putting its plans for Britain in the hands of private finance. It could end badly from the Guardian, Daniela Gabor is professor of economics and macrofinance at UWE Bristol

Well last Survation MRP is pretty nuts

Personally not convinced tories will do that badly and reform that well

NEW MRP: Labour 99% Certain To Win More Seats Than in 1997

Labour on Course to Win 484 seats.

The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

Probabilistic seat count:
LAB 484
CON 64
LD 61
SNP 10
RFM 7
PC 3
GRN 3

Good takedown of Labours so called private investment to drive growth, certainly a better explanation of why it is a terrible policy than I managed a few weeks back

As the C4 documentary showed, no-one is investing in the UK at the moment because of Brexit and the fact that we’ve had a zombie Government for the last 8 years. Result is catastrophic under-investment, crumbling services and infrastructure and the need for more investment – which is not forthcoming.

That’s what I’m “feart” of, that we are so far down the hole that Labour will allow anything and anyone in to drag us back up

There’s some proper drama queens on here, Labour haven’t even spent a minute in power, let alone won a majority, and folk are going on about their theoretical failures in government already 🤣

@crazy-legs – everyone needs to watch the channel 4 documentary on how the world really works and on how the whole nature of how this country is viewed, and so the subsequent investment changes literally overnight on Friday morning. The grown ups are back in charge, not a bunch of dogmatic, Nationalist populist clowns

This really is essential viewing

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/skint-the-truth-about-britains-economy

The ranges on that survation MRP are mad

Ed Davey is almost 50/50 LOTO

Our seat ranges are worth bearing in mind:

LAB 447-517
CON 34-99
LD 49-73
SNP 3-21
REF 1-16
PC 1-6
GRE 1-6

And please do read the post! https://t.co/BdSHU1FjqF pic.twitter.com/LGFDqJgpBq

— Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 2, 2024

Ione thing to bear is that about 20-25% votes have already been cast via post, so even the small amount of tightening we’ve seen lately will not be a factor for them. And they’ll have been done closer to Dday and betting scandal headlines!

I do think Starmer will be a competent PM – I just wish he hadn’t surrounded himself with such a right wing bunch and was less timid

I believe he’s highly competent in a managerial sense.

My prediction: whatever the result nationally, Farage will win and that will be all the presenters go on about and top the rolling 5 minute news updates ad infinitum. He is news catnip.

I predict that is going to happen even if he loses. Just don’t get the obsession with him that the UK media seems to have.

turnout is good at 60%.

My other prediction is that it will be much lower than it, around 39-40% because a lot of the ever increasing number of “I don’t do politics” potential voters won’t turn out because “it won’t make any difference, anyway”

I used to work with a lot like this and it really frustrated me. They’d then spend the rest of the time whinging on about how the government were a waste of space.

I hope I’m wrong in both my predictions but fear I may not be.

Not surprisingly the Labour lead is reducing in the last couple of days of the election campaign.

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-28-june-2-july-2024/

It’s probably worth pointing out that Redfield and Wilton have consistently been one of the more generous pollsters towards Labour.

Election night drinking game- shot for every cabinet member deposed.

Not surprisingly the Labour lead is reducing in the last couple of days of the election campaign.

was posted earlier by Kimbers – labour % is just about holding up, and the lead’s only reducing as Reform vote softens.

Election night drinking game- shot for every cabinet member deposed.

Piss off, I need to drive Saturday lunchtime.

was posted earlier by Kimbers – labour % is just about holding up, and the lead’s only reducing as Reform vote softens.

I didn’t see kimbers post but according to Redfield and Wilton:

Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister 

That’s only 1% more than Labour got in the 2017 general election although probably enough for a comfortable majority.

It’s good news for the Tories if they are clawing back votes from Reform UK, how much support they lose to RUK will determine the scale of their defeat.

And whilst I would be ecstatic to see the Tories wiped out on Thursday my greatest concern now is with regards to the 2029 general election.

We know for certain that the outcome of Thursday’s general election will be that Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister, there is no doubt of that imo, but what worries me most is that it might leave RUK in a strong enough position to be a threat in 2029.

All the focus now should be on 2029 and not providing RUK with the opportunity to present itself as an alternative to Labour.

I didn’t see kimbers post but according to Redfield and Wilton:

Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister

I guess the difference is this is a 4 horse race this time, with RUK and LD polling decent %. When i said holding up I meant within touching distance of their last poll which was based on surveys done 26-27th June (Lab = 42, Con = 19, RUK = 18, LD = 11), and pretty much similar to polls before that 21-24th June (Lab = 42, Con = 18, RUK = 19, LD = 12), 19-20th June (42, 18, 19, 11) and 14-17th June. (43, 18, 18, 12)

At that attrition rate it would take months for it to become close again, ergo just about holding up.

Of course, if there’s panic tomorrow at the ‘threat’ of a large majority, who knows but it’s not happened yet.

Quote”. I haven’t had a winning vote in 20yrs,” unquote.
Is that unusual at all? I started voting in 1983 had no winning vote until 1999 when I voted for Dennis Canavan in the Scottish parliamentary election. No more wins till 2007 then quite a few in succession all in the Scottish parliament. However if we stick to UK General Elections then I had no wins from 1983-2015, 32 years