UK Election!

Isn’t this pretty much what happened with Brexit? So many people thought “it won’t happen” that they didn’t bother to get out of bed, whilst on the other side every single person who wanted it to happen made the effort and voted.

A mix of that and the £350m written on the side of the bus which was quite a last minute thing. It spurred all the “undecided” to go “oh alright then, if it saves the NHS…”

Meanwhile all the Remainers were fairly confident of a narrow but assured win and had no time to counter the bus nonsense.

is SIR Keir Starmer, or Oxford and Winchester College Alumni Rich Sunak particularly relatable?

Why are people obsessed with the “SIR” ? It wasn’t hereditary, he got it by virtue of working his way to the top of a public organization.

Without wanting to sound like an absolute bootstrapper, working hard, being successful and getting rewarded for it should absolutely be relatable!

Yep.

I remember Farage on TV the morning after the vote. When asked how soon the 350 Millions a week would start going to the NHS he replied saying “anyone who thought the bus advert meant 350 Million a week was going to go to the NHS, was mistaken”

There’s plenty that was wrong before, but austerity has been the killer policy that’s trashed the country

Yes and no. If the previous governments especially thatchers but also to a degree new labour hadnt flogged off most of the family silver in terms of the oil, privatisations and selling off council housing cheap then they could have used some of that to lessen the damage.

So much though had been flogged off the country couldnt handle any sort of shock. Not dissimilar to the Truss budget. It was moronic but most of the damage to pensions were down to risky pension strategies which couldnt handle a shock. She was the trigger but it was waiting to fail.

The way to get large support in this country has always been to appeal to the centre ground i.e. both side

errrr no. Thats not appealing to both sides thats appealing to the centre.

They might swing votes but they arent a majority. We can see this by the way libdems dont win everything and change uk etc fail.

You still need to have policies to appeal to the actual core vote unless they decide to stay home. Unfortunately labour seem to have gone for the “who else are they going to vote for” and offering identikit centrist policies which given how much those policies have failed the UK isnt a great sell.

The “hope” is problematic since a)where is the evidence for it given who Starmer is surrounding himself with and b)its a bit 350 million for NHS isnt it?

Which then helps out the tories/reform next time.

Meanwhile all the Remainers were fairly confident of a narrow but assured win and had no time to counter the bus nonsense.

And of course age came into it. God’s waiting room with the merest little toe’s worth of the skin left in the game came out to vote. As they always do. And the youth, who had their whole adult life to suffer from the consequence stayed indoors and watched Game of Thrones or whatever people were watching in 2016. As they always do. Complacency amongst the young has been statistically significant since we started voting.

I’m not sure – do polling companies take this into account – weight crusty intentions higher and young (women especially apparently) intensions lower? I’d have a pop at the victim mentality of our current incumbents of the young adult generation – but my mob were probably just as bad when we were young and witless too.

Found out last night my mother has (postal) voted tory for the first time in her life a worthers original short of her 80th birthday…..reason…to keep the SNP out of her (our) constituency. It’s a sad sad day – I genuinely thought she’d make it to the end without turning. It’s like a zombie movie. Maybe I should have had a wooden stake ready for this very occasion – or is that vampires.

Meanwhile I see Farage has had a spot of trouble with defectors. Apparently, behind the curtain there’s a bit of racism, sexiism and homophobia – who’d a thunk it? With that confirmed no doubt the rest of the reform candidates will see a little uplift in support from the delightful folk we get to share the nation with.

The way to get large support in this country has always been to appeal to the centre ground i.e. both sides

Politics is a spectrum, not binary. There’s also a lot of nuance in the centre with how peoples beliefs fall. Just because the liberal democrats land in the middle, doesn’t mean that they appeal to all who land in the centre ground.

I’m a political orphan most of the time, I don’t align easily with labour, lib Dems or conservatives. This iteration of labour is nearest to my beliefs but I’d like them to be a bit more bold with committing to injecting investment into the economy.

I’m wondering – or more accurately “desperately hoping and praying” – that Starmer might show a bit more backbone once he’s in office

Technically we vote for a local MP, lots of people think we vote for a PM, but in reality we are voting for a government and a cabinet. That’s my hope that once in power it’s not just what SKS wants to do but the cabinet around him, some of which I have a lot of hope for.

is SIR Keir Starmer, or Oxford and Winchester College Alumni Rich Sunak particularly relatable?

IDK if people are aware of this but SKS’s Dad was a toolmaker.

It’s ironic – while the HOL desperately needs reform (not Farage’s lot) it’s existence has pushed back some of the worst of Brexit & Rwanda policy.

We could just vote for a king, like they do in the US ?

Facts

…

The private sector has little spare capacity

TJ, much as I think you’re one of the best people around, you’ve admitted your source for this claim is your personal experience* rather than anything more fact-y. My experience of the private helathcare sector in the last year (which frankly I wish I’d never had, in many senses of the word) was that they were able to deal with me very quickly. I have no idea which of our experiences is more representative of the true picture, and maybe neither of them is helpful, but I don’t think either of us can say they stand for a fact about the current capacity of the private sector.

* I should have said btw I was sorry to see your mum was unwell. It’s horrible seeing people close to you under the weather like that.

IDK if people are aware of this but SKS’s Dad was a toolmaker.

And I think I’m correct in saying that Little Rishi’s dad was a GP and his mum a chemist ?

IDK if people are aware of this but SKS’s Dad was a toolmaker.

Really? Every day’s a schoolday eh? :D

Rishi’s been out this morning saying they’re going to ‘squeeze’ benefits even more than the Tories have done for the last 14 years. Obviously there simply aren’t enough people using food banks so that their families can eat? Yay for performative cruelty.

Then they’ve just put this out? Apparently Starmer is now ‘hard left’. Who knew? I await the socialist revolution that begins on Friday

You have 48 hours to put the brakes on a Labour supermajority that will put up your taxes. pic.twitter.com/EGfDNHS9ex

— Rishi Sunak (@RishiSunak) July 2, 2024

IDK if people are aware of this but SKS’s Dad was a toolmaker.

Well that just shows how unrelatable he is. How many people are toolmakers today?

But seriously – Starmer’s story of coming from a “normal” family, using the springboard provided by society (good free-at-the-point-of-use schools and universities, student grants,  universal healthcare…), and backing that up with hard work, personal intelligence, and ruthless ambition to get to the top of your profession…that’s exactly the kind of story that should be relatable to everyone, and what the government should be there for everyone to support.

Is that Sunak’s team throwing in the towel? I admit to using a similar tactic in 2019 trying to get our Tory MP out… telling lifelong Tory voters that didn’t like him that the Conservatives were going to win anyway (it’s was pretty obvious in the last week) but that Johnson couldn’t be trusted with a big majority (he couldn’t)… so it would be hypocritical of me to call them out too much for it. Just need to counter it with… “The fewer Tory MPs we have the better… why gift them another seat?”

I saw our current Tory MP today on my before-work ride today, downhearted would be about the best description.

Went to speak with him to ask him about a recent poll that reckoned it was a 3-way contest here (Tory, Labour & SNP).  He clarified, what I’d understood, that he believes it’s a neck-and-neck for him with the SNP.

I wished him “good luck” as I shook his hand and he cheered up, then I added “not that I want you to win”.

His face dropped again, especially as he’d have assumed that as I’m an ‘Englishman’ I’d also be a Unionist (at least).

Everything crossed here :-)

Then they’ve just put this out? Apparently Starmer is now ‘hard left’. Who knew? I await the socialist revolution that begins on Friday

I dunno, the same people that thought Corbyn was hard/extreme/far left will probably be fooled.

Everything nicely summed up by Mr Pie…

Election Special 4: The Conservatives. pic.twitter.com/DMeQKwuHE6

— Jonathan Pie (@JonathanPieNews) July 2, 2024

I dunno, the same people that thought Corbyn was hard/extreme/far left will probably be fooled.

Nah, the centrists will never abandon their cult leader.

Can I just take a moment to congratulate my local Labour party?

Yesterday I received not 1, not 2, but a grand total of 6 mailshots addressed to me (4) or my wife (2), all arriving through the post at the same time.

I completely understand why Labour is targeting my area – they have closed a big gap (over 20% IIRC) with the Tories and in most polls are now just edging ahead by 1 or 2%, but, and this is a big ‘but’ (I like big buts….;)) I think that this sort of carpet bombing of leaflets is likely to put some undecided voters off rather than encouraging them, especially in the area I live in. Hopefully it’ll have the opposite effect but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.

And yes, I will be voting for them, but even so. Mrs. P’s first comment was that Labour obviously don’t care about the environment, wasting all that paper & ink – how many others will think the same? If they had been spread out over a few days neither of us would have thought anything about it, but so many in the same mail delivery is ridiculous.

Kind of, kind of not.

6 is excessive on one day (how much is when they were posted and how much the Royal Mail), but were they all different (you and your wife may have duplicates but were all your four different?)

We don’t have the ability via the Electoral registers to select email marketing and in a democracy we want as many people to be given access to the information* as possible to make informed choices. I would like it to be different but it probably balances as a necessary evil in my book.

It certainly wouldn’t make me change my vote; if I was that way inclined I’d be green already.  Frankly, Libdems could burn a pile of tyres outside the polling station right now, and they’ll still get my vote on Thursday – even if I am literally holding my nose to do it.

* propaganda and lies, YMMV

errrr no. Thats not appealing to both sides thats appealing to the centre.

YouGov have some stuff on this. https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/what-political-alignment-is-the-british-public

The centrist nutters taking the biggest share at 21% with the “off centres” making up 12% and 14%.

@ThePinkster – I’m really surprised by that. It must vary hugely between constituencies.

Paul*, who’s the Labour co-ordinator here has run the canvassing and leafletting like a military operation. We’ve all been designated specific areas and theres no duplication. Its been spread out over the last 6 weeks. I did my last tagetted letter drop a couple of days ago and tomorrow I’ll be delivering all the final ‘GET OUT AND VOTE LABOUR!’ leaflets

* Bless him, Mrs Binners saw him yesterday and asked how he was… “absolutely ****ing knackered!” came the reply

I think that this sort of carpet bombing of leaflets is likely to put some undecided voters off rather than encouraging them

Royal Mail aren’t doing a great job at delivering campaign material this time around. Has the July election clashed with staffing plans? I dunno. Where stuff is hand delivered (here anyway) it has all been carefully spread out… material landing all at once is a waste of resources (and as you say can be a turn off).

The centrist nutters taking the biggest share at 21% with the “off centres” making up 12% and 14%.

If, and this is a rather big if, you only take one option on the left and right vs that the off centres are broken into three on each side.

There is also the obvious problem that its perception of where it is. So if you ask a tory who thinks Johnson is a bit of a leftie they would at most place themselves as slightly right wing but most likely as centre.

Royal Mail aren’t doing a great job at delivering campaign material this time around. Has the July election clashed with staffing plans?

They are already struggling so having a bunch of parties suddenly go “we want a weekly mail drop for the next month” is likely to end in tears.  If it was “stick one through each door” it would probably work better but the individually addressed stuff is going to be more of an arse. So creaking system and no time to plan properly.

Rishi’s been out this morning saying they’re going to ‘squeeze’ benefits even more than the Tories have done for the last 14 years.

Actually according to their own fiscal tough talk about working people that comment may not be far off the truth.

Hope not.

If, and this is a rather big if, you only take one option on the left and right vs that the off centres are broken into three on each side.

I think you’d need to see the question, and how responses were given to really understand what YouGov are really saying, I cant seem to see it. I’d assumed 21% didn’t place themselves exactly in the centre but in a band around the centre. Either way, generally around the middle is a big chunk of respondents.

The other thing that stood out is how low the very and fairly rightwing numbers are.

 Mrs. P’s first comment was that Labour obviously don’t care about the environment, wasting all that paper & ink

Must be a local issue as Binners said. We got 1 letter addressed to the three adults in our house from Rachel Reeves yesterday which is very economical. Even managed to get all our 3 different surnames correct, how they managed to get it so targeted I have no idea as I’m sure we opt out of the electoral role sharing.

Are the 4% of very far left all on this thread?

@binners we’ve been having regular hand delivered stuff over the last couple of weeks which has been fine and I wish you all the best for the next couple of days.

I just struck me a very odd, so many arriving on the same day. There was a variety of different  different leaflets but why so many on the same day? I know the post office is having a few ‘problems’ at the moment but this looks more like someone forgot to do something earlier on in the campaign and then panicked.

IDK if people are aware of this but SKS’s Dad was a toolmaker.

People bang on about non-dom status and pro-bono consultancy activities but when will you lot realise that SKS doesn’t just have a 2nd job, he runs a very successful German bike accessory company. It’s not like he’s tried to hide it from us!  He’s a complete hypocrite and will tax you to death and beyond

Hand delivered stuff has been coming from the big three since the start, with some duplication from Labour.

Then absolute carpet bomb of postal stuff in the last ten days. Some has been addressed to multiple people, and some not very well targeted, e.g. yesterday Labour sent my youngest:

“(First name) Do you feel better off than you did 14 years ago?”

He wasn’t quite 6 back then :-) So I imagine more cash in his pocket now, but significantly more personal debt due to education costs….

We are an on a knife edge to oust our useless long time Conservative. Kids and their friends are all geared up to vote tactically. The difference in activity, ideas and general optimism between the Facebook pages of the local candidates is stark.

Are the 4% of very far left all on this thread?

All six of them 🤣.

Meanwhile our local Facebook group has descended into Reform world. Pretty working class  constituency which has swapped between Labour and Conservative (hopefully going Labour this time as the candidate is pro mountain biking). A fair proportion of the good working people of the borough are now outing themselves as simplistic, racist bigots. If the lefties on here want to be really miserable about something, cry for the ignorant misguided souls who think Reform is the answer to their many problems. It really is quite worrying, the out right lies being written and the gross ignorance of those lapping them up. Boris Johnson enabled all this, surely he could be tried for treason now?

Even managed to get all our 3 different surnames correct, how they managed to get it so targeted I have no idea as I’m sure we opt out of the electoral role sharing.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that political parties have full access to the “electoral” roll 🤔

I have no idea as I’m sure we opt out of the electoral role sharing.

You can’t opt out of candidates sending you election communications though – that’s on the “electoral register”. You can opt out of the “open register”.

https://www.gov.uk/electoral-register/opt-out-of-the-open-register

<anecdote> We regularly have no regular post for days then 18 letters arrive together rubber-banded together</anecdote>

Why are people obsessed with the “SIR” ? It wasn’t hereditary, he got it by virtue of working his way to the top of a public organization.

The honours system sometimes seems widely perceived as tainted by the Conservatives’ cronyism in recent years with titles sarcastically used for those holders who’ve fallen from grace. Some of Starmer’s detractors probably (deliberately or subconsciously) lean on the Sir because it makes him seem crooked or a participant in clientelism.