UK Election!

Yeah, didn’t know the SDP were still a thing till a few days ago.

I don’t think that bears any connection to “old school” Social Democracy. It looks to me like a co-opting of a name to appear less right wing than their manifesto suggests.

To put it another way, that’s not Social Democracy.

He has talked about making it possible for people <b>who </b>can’t otherwise afford it to ‘resort’ in similar manner. As a temporary measure.

No he hasnt.  What he has said us he will use the private sector to bring down waiting lists which as he has been told by the professionals and as i explained is not possible.  There is not the spare capacity.  Private healthcare cannot cover many things.  It costs more.

The man is a paid shill for private healthcare.

A Conservative friend told me that Britain is being ruled and ruined by “The Blob” and that that is things will not improve after the election.

I find it hard to believe Mr Blobby could **** it up as badly as it is now.

A Conservative friend told me that Britain is being ruled and ruined by “The Blob” and that that is things will not improve after the election. It sounded to me very much like a British variation of the “Deep State” conspiracy in the USA.

That’s precisely what it is, it’s the helpful stock excuse populists use when when they do finally gain control over all the levers of power and can’t get anything done because shouting catchy 3-word slogans doesn’t fly when you actually have to make things happen in office.

Of course the downside of repeatedly hitting this particular button is that it makes your supporters even more conspiratorial and misinformed and makes them that bit more likely to turn on you when someone even nuttier and more conspiratorial (i.e. Reform or MAGA) comes along.

And perhaps if surgeries were more centralised with the facilities provided by the NHS like any other employer, then there could be efficiencies on property, maintenance, IT, this, that, the other.

Or like a bus station, so maybe they could also buy a fleet of buses to go to all the outlying areas to pick up patients who have no car or access to any other form of transportation. Like around here.

Remember when Ed Miliband was ridiculed for eating a bacon sandwich a bit funny?

Ed Davey doesn’t give a shit what you think. This is how mad you can behave and still be in with a chance of being Leader of the Opposition against Rishi

Fresh from bungee jumping in Eastbourne, Sir Ed Davey is now you along part in a zumba class in Berkshire.

The Lib Dems say they’re increasing the number of seats they’re targeting on Thursday. pic.twitter.com/zULun5biR6

— Daniel Wittenberg (@DannyWittenberg) July 1, 2024

tj – you bang on incessantly about streeting being a paid shill for truck knows what; why not give it a rest until after the election, let ‘the dust settle’ and then decide what views you wish to emit – based on the facts.

You may be irritated/annoyed/frustrated by Labour’s NHS policies but – never forget the four Fs…First Find the F Facts.

Facts, Facts, Facts.

Assumptions, presumptions, allegations, preferred interpretations are all irrelevant.

Let us, just get the fricking tories out.

Then we can argue all day long over the nasty mess they made.

Then we can argue all day long over the nasty mess they made.

Or rather the mess the Labour Party are continuing to make but then your defence will be that you had no choice but to vote for them did you. which is a fair defence however depressing.

A Conservative friend told me that Britain is being ruled and ruined by “The Blob” and that that is things will not improve after the election.

Naah… that was two prime ministers ago.

I see that as everyone else has gone AWOL in the last couple of days before the reckoning, brain of Britain Chris Philp was sent out to defend the indefensible

After endlessly repeating the same lies as Rishi, he was nailed by the ever-excellent Victoria Derbyshire

“Is this how desperate you are now?
You’re literally making things up.”

Victoria Derbyshire shreds Chris Philp

CP, "Labour have not ruled out tax changes"

VD, "Labour have ruled out imposing CGT on people's homes and reevaluating council tax thresholds.. So you're wrong"

CP, "A few weeks ago Rachel Reeves did not rule it out"

VD, "Keir Starmer… pic.twitter.com/yp5ZyPJBH7

— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) July 1, 2024

Frank.

Facts

Streeting has taken large sums of money from private healthcare

The private sector has little spare capacity

The various professional bodies have told Streeting using private healthcare will exacerbate the situation not improve it

Streeting has said he will ignore those who know

Let us, just get the fricking tories out.

This!

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the headlines and predictions of Labour landslide – if everyone thinks they’re going to win regardless and doesn’t vote / spoils their paper / votes for the joke candidate, the Tories will squeak back in.

Vote – tactically if necessary even if it might not be the preferred choice you’d get in a PR system. Don’t spoil the paper!

Or rather the mess the Labour Party are continuing to make but then your defence will be that you had no choice but to vote for them did you. which is a fair defence however depressing.

That’s a pretty obtuse argument to counter GTTO.

I see the little fella has said tonight that he’ll stay on as Tory leader after they lose on Thursday.

I can only imagine what words escaped the lips of Tory MPs when they heard that – the sentient ones, that is.

That’s precisely what it is, it’s the helpful stock excuse populists use when when they do finally gain control over all the levers of power and can’t get anything done because shouting catchy 3-word slogans doesn’t fly when you actually have to make things happen in office.

Of course the downside of repeatedly hitting this particular button is that it makes your supporters even more conspiratorial and misinformed and makes them that bit more likely to turn on you when someone even nuttier and more conspiratorial (i.e. Reform or MAGA) comes along.

That is a neat summation of where the Tories have CHOSEN to go down the rabbit hole opened by Brexit. They actively chose to do this to themselves (and us). So, frankly, **** them.

Your regular reminder that Labour whipped for and voted for this Brexit deal, and they refuse to countenance undoing any of the harm they wilfully caused.

Your regular reminder that Labour are the only way to get rid of the Tories in this General Election.

That’s a pretty obtuse argument to counter GTTO.

I suppose it would be yes, however I wasn’t countering GTTO I was making a point about what the discussion will be like once the tories are out and we are all living Starmers unambitious dream.  Just getting in early…

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the headlines and predictions of Labour landslide

Indeed, according to the opinion polls support for Labour is falling. The last three opinion polls all have Labour on 39%, which is less than Labour recieved in the 2017 general election.

It still looks very likely that Labour will have a comfortable majority but that has more to do with a divided rightwing vote and the vagary of first-past-the-post than the popularity of Labour.

It’s worth remembering two things – firstly that the situation can significantly change in the last couple of days before a general election, and secondly that the last time a Labour landslide victory was predicted the then Labour Leader, Tony Blair, was seen as highly popular with the electorate, which doesn’t reflect the current situation, and which suggests that the Labour vote is much softer.

Interesting program on channel 4 by more or less presenter Tim Harford on why we’re in this mess. Bottom line is since 2008 just about every metric has tanked since the Tories came into office, except for business investment, that tanked in 2016 around the Brexit referendum. His take away was that despite record taxes investment in infrastructure and hardware is now half what it was and were now reaping the rewards of 15 years of it. The less you invest the more demand you generate for day to day support services.

We’re now lagging behind pretty much the rest of Europe who have been through the same global shocks.

His other big take away was growth has stagnated, again due to a lack of investment, both public and private. But then who wants to invest in a country with a government so unpredictable and suicidal as ours.

People might not like the version of Labour on offer but what the country desperately needs is a period of stable leadership and increased investment which is what Labour is promising.

We can worry about rearranging the deck chairs when we have stopped the ship sinking.

the situation can significantly change in the last couple of days before a general election

Yup, the risk of people staying at home, or splitting the vote to make a point, is higher than ever after weeks of polls and seat predictions… plenty of people will wake up with a Conservative MP they had expected others to vote to defeat.

@stumpyjon – it’d be good if every voter watched that before Thursday. An independent voice laying out in the starkest manner imaginable the absolute folly of both austerity and then Brexit and the fact that its the decisions of 14 years of Tory governments that have delivered us to where we are today

And I couldn’t agree more that what this country is desperate for more than anything is for people to be able to look to the UK as a country that actually has some grown-ups back in charge after the absolute ****ing circus its been since 2016

Essential viewing if you missed it last night…

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/skint

Yup, the risk of people staying at home, or splitting the vote to make a point, is higher than ever after weeks of polls and seat predictions… plenty of people will wake up with a Conservative MP they had expected others to vote to defeat

100% agree

Last few polls out today or tomorrow, world be good if they show a Labour drop, just to stop complacency?

We can worry about rearranging the deck chairs when we have stopped the ship sinking.

Sorry the ship is being stopped from sinking, how exactly?

The problem is most of the problems date back prior to 2010, its just then that the bills started to become due. For example the looting of thames water really started under labour and peaked under the coalition before the wheels came off now.

A sinking ship requires somewhat drastic policies vs keeping things mostly the same.

To take the ship analogy its like removing the pissed captain from command but saying we will stick with the same course that he plotted.

Last few polls out today or tomorrow, world be good if they show a Labour drop, just to stop complacency?

If only labour were offering something more to people who were being attracted to the “minor parties” than just the “tories will get in”.

Its depressing how heavily not only Labour but the tories are leaning on the same line. If you vote green,libdem/ukip you will get the tories/labour respectively.

The same course? I don’t know why parties bother with manifestos. You’re not alone though, plenty of my left leaning friends have bought into the “it makes no difference who’s in charge” line. Defeatism in place just as we finally have a chance to remove the Tories. On education, health, energy, climate, trade and, you know, governance… there’s an ocean between the Conservative and Labour manifestos… and teams.

Sorry the ship is being stopped from sinking, how exactly?

Do you actually really need to ask? Seriously?

Since 2016 the UK essentially hasn’t had a government in any functioning form. As the channel 4 doc we’re referencing shows, investment in the UK economy fell off a cliff on June 24th 2016 and its been in freefall ever since. It was pretty grim for the 8 years before that.

Until that is adressed with a period of stability delivered by a pragmatic government, not one ruled by an insane nationalist populist dogma, then this countrys decline will continue unchecked

What the doc also points out is that the UK is a leader in key areas for future development such as AI and Life Sciences and investors want to invest in their country, but they haven’t done so because of the gang of loons that have been at the wheel since 2016.

A change of government to get shut of these charlatans and snake oil salesmen will represent a sea-change in the way this country is viewed internationally, with a resulting change in investment.

We have to deal with the world as it actually is, rather than how we’d like it to be

Oh, I posted the wrong link up before, this is the Tim Harford documentary. Its essential viewing…

https://www.channel4.com/programmes/skint-the-truth-about-britains-economy

The same course? I don’t know why parties bother with manifestos.

Neither do I since they generally break them at whim.

However lets take housing for a start.  The labour proposition whilst not being quite as much a cash transfer to the housing companies is just vague words with no clear articulation of how the problem will be solved or indeed acknowledgement of the issue.

Energy. GBE has some good bits but is effectively unfunded.

and so forth. I know it might shock you but others may have read the manifestos and simply not been impressed by them. Even many starmerites acknowledge this with the ming vase bollocks.

https://news.sky.com/story/government-urgently-investigating-general-election-postal-ballot-delays-13162201

others may have read the manifestos and simply not been impressed by them. Even many starmerites acknowledge this with the ming vase bollocks.

I’m wondering – or more accurately “desperately hoping and praying” – that Starmer might show a bit more backbone once he’s in office and that, at the moment, he’s deliberately saying nothing and being bland for a couple of reasons:
1). the Tories are quite happily screwing things up all of their own accord and the entire country knows it
2). if he says anything too controversial, the RW press will leap on it in seconds

I mean, if he says something like “we don’t really care about the boats…”, the headlines the next day will be “Starmer plans to let floods of immigrants invade us and he’ll give them all YOUR house and job!”

Either way though, surely – even if you think Labour are much the same – you can see that another 5 years of a Tory Government just squeaking back into power will be the ultimate snatch and grab job for them. They’ll leave a smoking ruin behind them.

This postal vote issue means we may have reached true omnishambles status

This postal vote issue means we may have reached true omnishambles status

Indeed. Its a fitting end, isn’t it?

The irony of it being that postal votes tend to go disproportionately to the Tories as a lot of them are used by pensioners, so they’ve shot themselves in the foot once again.

The problem is most of the problems date back prior to 2010

There’s plenty that was wrong before, but austerity has been the killer policy that’s trashed the country

The irony of mocking people for moaning when that’s all binners has done about Corbyn for 4 years… It’s ok for people to have different opinions you know.

I’d prefer labour over Tories but if they get a huge majority I can’t see them having any drive for reform. A narrower win may show that they have more people to get onside, or that they finally need to listen to their members about PR.

FWIW I took the long form vote for policies and didn’t return a single Labour or Tory policy. I live in a safe labour seat so it’s somewhat arbitrary in any case.

Ed Davey doesn’t give a shit what you think. This is how mad you can behave and still be in with a chance of being Leader of the Opposition against Rishi

I think that resonates well with ordinary people.  It also resonates well with the media.  He could waste his time arguing about policies – but people who vote on policy have already made up their mind long ago; he’s appealing to people who vote on personality / relatability.

is SIR Keir Starmer, or Oxford and Winchester College Alumni Rich Sunak particularly relatable?  If I was in a constituency where a Lib Dem vote would count, I’d at least be considering it!   I’d rather they were trying to enlist support for rejoining EEA (if not the whole EU) but perhaps that’s an issue for next time.  I’d also like to see more talk about reform of politics – be it lords, federalism etc.  I imagine that could become a talking point if the 2nd place in the popular vote and 2nd place in seats don’t align – perhaps then the two party system / FPTP might be relatable to people.

“This!

Don’t be lulled into a false sense of security by the headlines and predictions of Labour landslide – if everyone thinks they’re going to win regardless and doesn’t vote / spoils their paper / votes for the joke candidate, the Tories will squeak back in.”

Isn’t this pretty much what happened with Brexit? So many people thought “it won’t happen” that they didn’t bother to get out of bed, whilst on the other side every single person who wanted it to happen made the effort and voted. That couple of percent difference was all they needed. suddenly a few percent meant “The Will Of The People” ….. and the rest is history.

I’d prefer labour over Tories but if they get a huge majority I can’t see them having any drive for reform. A narrower win may show that they have more people to get onside

I don’t think it works like that – more the other way round.  Whatever policy you push, some people will not like it. So the more policies you have the more you’ll piss people off.  The way to get large support in this country has always been to appeal to the centre ground i.e. both sides, which have different ideas, so you essentially need to promise as little as possible to get the most support – which is what’s happening here.

Once you’re in, with a large majority, you can push your agenda more.  That’s why people are hoping that Labour will end up doing more than has been talked about during the campaign.

is SIR Keir Starmer, or Oxford and Winchester College Alumni Rich Sunak particularly relatable?

It’s also SIR Ed Davey

@poly – Labour have already talked about reforming the house of lords.

They’re also outnumbered in the Lords, so we’re in catch-22 territory as you’re into a constitutional pissing contest without a written constitution.

Ultimately a reform of the second chamber is needed, my ill thought out version would be an elected senate with ten year terms using PR. Give that chamber the job of long term policies like infrastructure or healthcare. Have entry requirements for candidates with an independent vetting process so that we get people with suitable skills…

There’s a load of flaws in this idea, but hopefully you get the gist of what I’m thinking