UK Election!

New poll shows the gap between Labour and the Tories widening, not narrowing as might have been expected more than half way through an election campaign.

Labour’s lead climbs to new high as Conservatives fall further

https://tinyurl.com/mr9rpt8k

It also confirms the other poll that claimed 27% of 2019 Tory voters are now backing Reform UK.

The share of Conservative 2019 voters switching to Reform has climbed four points to 27% this week

Reforms’ growth actually holds its own risks, especially if it gets a few MPs.

The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics will soon chafe under the yoke of Nige, who doesn’t seem to like sharing the limelight or the funds and the growth of Reform will soon lead to some hilariously vicious  infighting and factionalism.

Of course that’s not to say they can’t truly bugger up the country before that happens, but it’s a matter of when, not if.

It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people’s aspirations already, it doesn’t augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer’s desire to brook no opposition.

Luckily I married a Belgian

Fabulous buns I hear

parachuting in placemen to safe seats

We elected the same parliamentary candidate that stood in our seat under Corbyn. I don’t know who your local Labour members chose. Not a safe seat though. Perhaps if we get as many Labour MPs as possible in the commons not from traditionally “safe seats”, we’ll get a wider church of Labour MPs than if Labour only scrape a win based on safe seats plus more winnable seats.

The grifting egomanicacs that tend to be drawn towards leadership roles in populist right wing politics

We’re just coming off a political tailspin of Johnson -> Truss -> Sunak. Reform UK haven’t been the only ones competing for the attention of grifting egomaniacs drawn to leadership roles in populist right wing politics.

I do find it amusing that the voters the Tories chased hardest in recent years are defecting to Reform UK, while many traditional right-centrist conservative voters seem to be voting Lib Dem, Labour, or even Green depending on their constituency. Much of the remaining Conservative support looks very likely to depart the electorate over the next couple of electoral cycles. That’s the real extinction event. 

He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement

I’m pretty ugly but christ he looks awful

good comparison of how the different pollsters weight their data

For reference-Tory averages for

_________ nowcasters-  19%, (<50seats) ___squeezers-n  21(<100 seats), ____reweighters- 23.5(~200seats)

the squeezers are asking the dont knows who they’d vote for , the reweighetrs basing it on previous elections

either method could be right, but with 3 other parties taking their votes & the Tories breathtakingly unpopular if nothing major changes …..

then IMHO  Tories looking at a massive wipeout (<100 seats)  rather than the 19% (<50 seats) Oblivion

also sunaks own team must really hate him to arrange this kind of stuff

Rishi Sunak and David Cameron are attempting to feed sheep at a farm in North Devon. The sheep have run away. pic.twitter.com/4eXS7S8ZO7

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 18, 2024

IPSOS (usually very accurate predictor of a GE) MRP is out

They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs

That ‘feels’ realistic, and hopefully will prevent too much ‘it’s in the bag’ complacency among Labour voters.

They have Corbyn losing, Farage getting Clacton and Tories just about staying above 100MPs

And apparently the Green Party ending up with 3 MPs, which doesn’t sound very realistic to me – I am not aware of any opinion polls which claim that the Greens will get more than 2 seats, most claim just one.

Predicting the tail is very hard. Green will likely retain Brighton and Reform win something. I said earlier, conservatives will do better than the dooming at about 120 seats. I can’t imagine them getting less than 100. But then I could imagine Trump and Johnson as leaders of UK/US!

The Lib Dems’ “Project A30”

https://x.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1802954266300080629

Looks like 13% of the vote would do it.

PS, why don’t X/Twitter posts embed on here now?

It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right. The LP are trying to downplay people’s aspirations already, it doesn’t augur well. Expelling the left in the party and parachuting in placemen to safe seats reflects Starmer’s desire to brook no opposition.

Yeah that ^ , austerity 3.0 and flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25

He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement

It’s like the Honeymonster’s been hitting his own supply hard and long.

flatlining like hedgehogs crossing the M25

I hate it when I laugh at inappropriate gems like this.

14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.

That leaves Reform UK then.

I’m not convinced the Venn diagram of folk who might vote Reform or might vote LibDem has a big enough overlap to be a concern.

DEADLINE TO REGISTER TO VOTE IS MIDNIGHT TELL YOUR FRIENDS.

yes it is caps ON important

Not sure where best to post this but here is probably as good a place as any considering this election is “supposedly” about a fairer society, not that I have any faith in Starmer and his “advisors” to do anything to fix it

$50 Trillion income inequality – The Top 1% of Americans Have Taken $50 Trillion From the Bottom 90%—And That’s Made the U.S. Less Secure

That Ipsos data is only 1014 people! Ipsos is up to 4 June so why so late to publish the data? And no constituency data

Survation is based on 30k respondents to June 3 and was published on June 4 with constituency data

I see he’s visiting the south west today. Hands up, who doesn’t love a Cornish Patsy?

The ipsos one is 20,000 proportionally across constituencies fieldwork 7-14th june

https://x.com/IpsosUK/status/1803107966637199746?t=FEwI1oYrf6uTarvzZKa7fQ&s=19

No self selection so should be less biased

Has reform lower & tories higher than other polls and constituency data is pretty close to national swing, except in a few constituencies where they pick up big local effects, personalities etc, eg Anderson with big numbers in Ashfield. And that 3rd green seat in north Herefordshire (that was close with Survation MRP too)

I really struggle to see the Greens winning Herefordshire.  Lots of polls have them losing Brighton too.  Lucas standing down a replacement isn’t a local iirc.

Rather than watch the C4 debate on immigration (I’d rather punch myself in the balls) I’m watching this instead,

The Tories have got Laura Trott to do a party political broadcast tonight. Laura Trott?!! Nobody else. Just 5 minutes of Laura Trott stood at a podium reading out stuff they just made up.

Seriously? That’s it?

Obviously nobody else will go near that gig so they’ve got a woman doing it who’s so dense that light bends around her.

You can actually smell the desperation now. Sunak  is now like kryptonite. Nobody wants to go anywhere near him or have anything to do with the upcoming electoral Armageddon.

Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don’t do the vetting) been done?

Has the Farage kicking off about paying vetting company (who don’t do the vetting) been done?

No but it’s very funny

It will stop being funny when we have a competent far right party, but right now we can laugh

Rishi v Jay Rayner. There’s only going to be one winner there

Where to bloody start? There isn't enough British food to buy because the crass, malformed, malignant clown-show of Brexit that you promoted, has undermined food production, courtesy of ill-thought out subsidies. Plus, brexit-driven border controls have stymied imports. https://t.co/OWFVKIy1kW

— Jay Rayner (@jayrayner1) June 18, 2024

Missed that ipsos data when I looked earlier kimbers…..

Different recommendations for some seats cf electoral calculus and ft…….

Not sure how well MRP takes into account recent local council results and local candidate time in constituency vs parachute candidates from above

I look at this Tory leaflet and wonder if it says what they wanted it to.

Rishi v Jay Rayner. There’s only going to be one winner there

Rishi’s reading straight from the Big Priti Patel Book of British Food Security there, isn’t he.

They’re just throwing whatever they can at the wall to see what sticks.

But what he wont do is attack farage who has promised to destroy the tories

It’s been much repeated on here but never has a government got elected and then moved left, always to the right

Once the dust has settled on a Labour win get ready for the right-wing backlash. Remember British voters are so arrogant and see themselves as right about everything all along. They will be lapping up the not right-wing enough narrative fed to them by the press. Give it five years of Labour (yet again failing to deliver for working people) getting savaged by the right-wing press, who will point it out at every opportunity and they will be ready for a BNP light fronted by the right person!

This (and some other social media platforms) are the only places I hear clamouring for a green socialist future, I just don’t hear it anywhere out there in real life! You can thank Just Stop Oil, social media know-it-alls and money grabbing councils for seeing the greens pushed further down the agenda. People don’t want to be shamed, chastised, then fined and restricted going about their day-today lives and will vote accordingly.

British voters are so arrogant and see themselves as right about everything all along…People don’t want to be shamed, chastised, then fined and restricted going about their day-today lives and will vote accordingly.

🤔

Imagine you’ve been in a coma for the last 10 years, you miraculously wake up and want to catch up on the news, and this is the first story you read…
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/tony-blair-rosie-duffield-holyrood-basingstoke-canterbury-b2564637.html

what would you think has happened while you were out?

I’d think some people are very easily triggered by culture war nonsense?

More than half of voters want Jeremy Corbyn back in the Labour Party, new poll reveals

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-election-labour-farage-tories-b2564501.html

Using their data it’s more than 90% of Labour voters… but looking at the polling question, I wouldn’t go near their data with a barge poll…

…effectively asking two separate questions, both framed and limited by assuming two positive and unconnected results, and the answers making people chose between options that refer to both questions… well… it’s junk statistics coming out of that.

Hands up, who doesn’t love a Cornish Patsy?

Me. I cannot even smell one without gagging. When I was 12 I bit into one and it had a cigarette end in it. Fifty years later I can still taste it when a pasty is mentioned.

really struggle to see the Greens winning Herefordshire

I’m in that constituency, North Herefordshire. It might happen. There are lots of green councillors on the Council, Ellie Chowns is very well thought of locally and they have been throwing a lot of resources and effort into canvassing. Conversely we have had nothing from the Tory, Wiggin. Unlike Ellie, I have not yet anyone who has actually met him have a good word to say. That includes me, I have met him three times.  His vocal support for a local farmer who was sent to jail and given a £1.2 million fine for  wrecking a stretch of the river Wye ( who happened to be a personal friend and Tory activist) didn’t help in some communities.

If she can jump from 4th to 1st, that would be amazing. More likely that vote will be split and the Tories win on a reduced majority.