UK Election!

Farage, whatever his party is called this election and his supporters summed up perfectly by John Crace

Nigel Farage’s Reform contract isn’t worth the paper it’s written on – but who cares?

My point wasn’t clear? Really?

No, it was clear – I’m just countering it.  Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn’t a good reason to predict it won’t happen this time.  Everything that has ever happened happened for the first time at some point.

Fianna Fail went from 41% vote share in 2007 to 18% in 2011. The Canadian Conservatives went from 43% in 1988 to 16% in 1992. It certainly happens, regardless of how ‘unserious’ anyone might think it is.

Fianna Fail went from 41% vote share in 2007 to 18% in 2011.

While Fianna Fáil’s slap on the wrist for economic mismanagement was somewhat enjoyable it’s really not comparable: a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP. They went back into government in a subsequent election.

Sun Exclusive……

KEIR FOR THE BEERS Boost to pubs as Labour promises new powers to protect closure-threatened boozers — and hints beer duty will be frozen

:?

with lots of  Rachel Reeves “Johnsonesque/Farage” smiley pint pulling/supping photo’s….

The Tories lost 33% of their vote share in Scotland in 1997. Why not the same across the UK this time? These Tories are far worse than Major’s Tories.

Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).

Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?

Did you not watch them the other night? The only beneficiary of this present Euros in the UK are going to be the suppliers of Jude Bellingham replica Engerland tops

Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak?

The Euros finishes after the election!

When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal.

Reckon it’ll be much the same as the Blair govt minus the largesse on benefits. Pretty sure the NHS and other public services will get a huge cash injection and public sector workers will see more generous pay deals. They’ll have such a huge majority they won’t have to worry about any questions about where the money is coming from and Starmer won’t want to start his premiership by pissing off his MPs by sticking to tory austerity.

Separately: imagine England wins (or does really well) at the Euros. Does that help Starmer or Sunak? I would imagine it would also boost the Plaid Cymru and SNP votes as ordinary people there recoil from the prospect of Eng-er-lund triumphalism (and fall victim to envy).

If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents. The red top papers will be joyous and all will be well in our sceptic isle for a little bit.

Our ‘septic isle’?

If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents

Not if everyones in the pub, absolutely leathered

If England are through to the quarter finals on election day, it will boost the incumbents.

Why? I’m not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other. Who are the voters who’d see the results on the football pitch and have it influence which box they tick in the voting booth? Which are the parties that can make a claim on the success or who you’d blame for the failure?

Why? I’m not aware of any of our political parties being pro football or anti football relative to any other.

Recent sporting success and/or a military conflict result in an uplift of support for current governing party. Its well evidenced, even if not at all logical.

Recent sporting success

making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts  as success? ;-)

Starmer can also claim the win as they wouldn’t have won if Sunak was still PM

a first preference in PR:STV isn’t the same thing as a vote in FPTP.

Who said it was? The point is that established parties sometimes loose their tradition support, and often in startling ways. That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they’ve never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.

That its never happened to the Tories is probably only indicative of the fact that they’ve never managed to alienate quite so much of the electorate before.

post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever

making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts  as success?

You’re not an England fan are you?

post 2008 and the legacy of austerity that followed has blown up a lot of the traditional base for all parties, for all this talk of a supermajority & Tories out of power for 20 years, Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever

This + look at France.

We’re electing a left-ish government because we’re fed up with the other one, not because we’re moving to the left. It just happens that we’re oscillating back that way.

Reform is only going to get worse. And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.

Simply saying that they have never before got such a low percentage isn’t a good reason to predict it won’t happen this time.

I have already conceded that anything can happen. I said that the LibDems could win the election, the Greens could get 10 MPs, and the Tories could get just 19 seats.

None of those things will happen of course.

Although we will know soon enough if I’m wrong and the Tories are down to just 19 seats, in two and a half weeks actually, so not long.

19 seats was an outlier so is unlikely. But LD in opposition is much less unlikely, albeit probably not the most likely outcome.

My guess is:

• Chance of result according to the poll average: 50%
• Chance of majority being much slimmer than polls due to electoral calculus being inaccurate: 30%
• Something totally bat-shit happening: 20%

And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.

France is a good example, a far Right party has tidied up its image a lot, Reforms manifesto was pie in the sky nonsense, LePen’s policies are still contradictory & damaging (Macron is banking on this) but its far more polished in its delivery

Our ‘septic isle’?

Normally sceptred would be used but since the sewage discharge scandal we’re septic!

Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…

Saw my first Reform sign today, by a farm field.

making it to (but not having yet competed in) the quarter finals by election day counts as success?

It is for England’s men….the women have higher standards.

All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus

Yes, changing that FT poll to Tories = 20% gives this in seats.

LD official opposition (though do have to compare that with CON+DUP?) and still no Reform seats.

Drop the Tory share another couple points and Dr. Who beats the evil Master in Clacton.

by a farm field.

Is that better or worse than a country mile?

Jesus,  Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly

There was a tory sign in a local farmers field near to town here in galloway, until it was spray painted with “vote tory get ****”, very apt.

It was replaced and the next night same thing……good….good.

Jesus,  Boris looks like he will be needing the nhs bigtime shortly

I’d prefer an undertaker.

Postal vote just arrived.

And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about.

I’m not as it’d just tip us over to leaving the UK.

If the Sun are running Pro Starmer headlines, even just lighthearted ones, that is quite significant.

Yep, could be a trigger for me too as 2029 is good timing for retirement.  Luckily I married a Belgian (not many people say that) so have a choice of countries I can live in although any of those will be far right by then!

Labour need to be aware that they could easily find themselves out of favour- the elctorate is more switchy than ever

Very true. I live in a solid labour constituency but got a lib dem canvasser pop by. Seriously considering switching.

Dear god, Rishi must be really desperate now! He’s wheeled out the sex yeti for an endorsement, who made his usual amount of effort…

Wonder how much the sex yeti got paid for that?

And a Reform + Tory coalition in 2029 is something I’m very worried about

.

Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let’s face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.

Who will people who are dissatisfied with a Labour government’s performance vote for in 2029?

I don’t think that 5 years is enough time for the Tories to regain their credibility in the eyes of voters. So what’s the choice – Reform UK or the LibDems?

14 years on the LibDems are still struggling with credibility issues since their decision to enable a Tory government and wholeheartedly support austerity. I am not convinced that another 5 years will definitely be enough.

That leaves Reform UK then.

And I’m not even sure that they will need to go into coalition with the Tories, in just two years Reform UK have gone from 5% support in the polls to more than treble that.

I reckon that too much close association with a discredited Tory Party might actually damage Reform UK. Farage likes to portray Reform UK as a “new” party untainted by the failings of the “establishment” parties.

What I do know though is that the Left and progressive parties need to get their shit together for the next general election if the threat posed by Farage is to be minimised. How likely that is to happen depends I guess on how scared they are of a Farage government. I certainly wouldn’t be too confident that they will.

UKIP and the BREXIT party both managed to poll above 25%.

They’ll probably be a fourth incarnation by 2029, under yet another name, doing the same, or better. But we have seen these bubbles of support for Farage’s lot before. And will do again. If they work out how to connect with the youth vote as well as the oldies, as their political compatriots in many other countries have, we’re in big trouble. For now… don’t buy into their hype or give credence to the snakewater they’re selling.

Yeah unless you have faith that Labour will deliver something satisfactory by 2029, and let’s face it Labour themselves are claiming that they will be very restricted in what they will be able to do in government, then 2029 is a big worry.

I disagree a little. What they need to do is deliver a bit more than people expect.  They need to get to the “well it’s not perfect, but it’s better than I expected” position.
And to do that they need to underplay like nobody’s business in the first couple of months.