UK Election!

Not all the Reform UK vote comes from the Tories. I can’t remember the precise figure but something like 30% comes from Labour.

Depends on your sources, but yes labour will have lost some votes to reform, that goes without saying as quite a lot of labour supporters are anti-conservative, and massive anti-EU/racists, etc, but 30% seems a bit of a stretch. Either way..

The numbers don’t add up from my perspective.

https://x.com/DeltapollUK/status/1802755485331780094

Blimey, the latest poll gives Labour a 27% lead over the Tories. That’s the biggest Labour lead in about three weeks.

After dipping below 40% last week for the first time in about 2 years the Labour share of the vote is starting to nudge towards 50% again.

Jamze
Full Member
I thought 70% of the UK generally supported net zero/2050, or has that changed? Why is Sunak chasing 30% and putting off 70% of people?

That 30% tend to be of an, erm, certain demographic that makes them likely to vote Tory/reform.

The 70% wont vote for them, no matter what they Tories/reform say or pledge.

The Tories are now trying to prevent an extinction level event. Electoral wipeout on July 4th

They’re haemorrhaging their core racist pensioner vote to Farage and Reform so they’re now desperately trying to claw some back by apeing them.

It won’t work because Farage will just get ever-more extreme, so why vote for the low fat version of right wing nastiness when you can have the real full fat deal?

Its poetic justice for Johnson and the Tory Brexiteers using Farage and Co as convenient outriders to make the dog whistles they couldn’t, thinking they could just pop him back in his box when he’d served his purpose.

Instead, the right is now eating itself

****em!

It won’t work because Farage will just get ever-more extreme, so why vote for the low fat version of right wing nastiness when you can have the real full fat deal?

Sunak is Mussolini to Farage’s Hitler basically.

Reforms manifesto is the right equivalent of the greens manifesto, they are parties who will never be near power, so have no real concern about ever having to integrate the actual policies, instead just having them down and preaching them gives them the backing of certain voters.

Not really. The Green manifesto details tax rises that will be needed for realistic improvements to public services and (obviously) the investment required in a sustainable future. The Reform manifesto … errr ..doesn’t. It’s just a bunch of fantasy to fill out the paper because a single page with “we hate darkies” might be a little too obvious.

If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it’s split the tory vote pretty much in half.

Yes there will be some immigrants into reform from labour, but it will be low single digits in terms of percentage, if it’s even quantifiable, IMO.

Was recently blocked from posting to jenrick’s FB page after I had pointed out that many of his recent claims about what he had delivered for the constituency were on the spurious to porkies spectrum.

His constituency FB page are now putting up more posts which can be seen only by the anointed few.

Hustings at Southwell Minster on Thursday should be…interesting! There have been some suggestions that jenrick may be a no-show as he’s on a hiding to nothing.

Leaflet delivery and canvassing continues – daily electioneering step count hit a new high of 25,200 last Friday.

Theres a real range in the polls at the moment

We've now got 4 polls conducted over the weekend, and they, uh, don't agree on much with respect to vote intention.

Labour leads are about 10 pts higher(!) with Deltapoll/Redfield than MiC/JLP

Lab range is 40-46%
Con range is 19%-25% https://t.co/GYTrbqicD0 pic.twitter.com/FEGhcKCm0U

— J (@Beyond_Topline) June 17, 2024

quite a few pollsters have changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote, for several reasons; partly to make it match movements from previous elections, partly as a result of lib dems taking their vote in seats where they are direct rival to the tories (there seems to be lots of evidence of ‘get the tories out’ tactical voting) and partly because of  something like the shy tory vote, but for voters saying theyll vote labour but wont vote or will vote someone else!

several polls also have Starmer approval rating at record highs- hes more popular on this one that the famous vote winning man of the people Johnson at the last GE!

The gap between the two leaders has widened to fifty-nine points. pic.twitter.com/SQTok5zsc3

— Deltapoll (@DeltapollUK) June 17, 2024

the range of the polls right now is somewhere between a 1997 style victory and Ed Davey being the LOTO plus a few Reform MPs in the commons!

^^^^^^ That graph – just for showing Liz Truss’s meteoric rise! ^^^^^^^^^^^

In the sense that meteors are generally on a one way trip downwards, in flames.

accruiskeen
Full Member
^^^^^^ That graph – just for showing Liz Truss’s meteoric rise! ^^^^^^^^^^^

A proper cliff edge. Lol

Those bloody lefty bankers have a lot to answer for. 😉

Here’s those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator

I think the problem for pollsters is that the post brexit elections were abnormal so the usual rules don’t apply, also the tories are being squeezed by Labour,, LD & Ref, making things very hard to predict

If the polls are to belived, then reform have stolen about 50% of tory (or would be tory)voters, give or take, it’s split the tory vote pretty much in half.

Which poll?

According the Redfield & Wilton poll it is 27%

https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-14-17-june-2024/

If you scroll down to voting intentions of 2019 Conservative voters 27% are currently saying that they intend voting for Reform UK.

Here’s those 4 latest polls in a seat calculator

The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It’s obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.

A basic swingometwr style eat calculator wont work here because of the above mentioned tactical voting effect and Reform’s variable popularity.

kimbers – the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.

In the context of the ‘accepted/recognised’ polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.

In saying that, I could be completely wrong; breakfast time on 5th July will provide the answer.

The last of the four predicts just 19 Tory seats ffs. It’s obviously a poll which is not even worth considering.

Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier

Electoral calculus use a national swing and model it on each constituency based on historical votes and turnout etc, a 3 way squeeze on the tories is devastating for them in this method and that’s not factoring on tactical voting! Fptp

It does seem pretty wild, BUT if we were to see the other pollsters match the deltapoll / redfield numbers then it would be a real possibility (elec calculus model has predicted the winner in every one of the last 8 GEs  and been within 4% of each parties seat count

Based on the average of all the current polls elec calc are saying at this atm

kimbers – the 4 polls you show all appear to be from Electoral Calculus.

In the context of the ‘accepted/recognised’ polling companies they look increasingly to be an outlier, consistently overstating the size of the predicted labour majority.

I put the numbers from the most recent polls (all fieldwork this weekend)  into elec calculus

They are

redfield Witton (megapoll 10,000)

Moreincommon

JL Partners

Deltapoll

Survations own seat prediction currently has:

Labour on course for 262 seat majority.

LAB 456
CON 72
LD 56
SNP 37
RFM 7
PC 2

GRN 1

Yougovs latest looks like this

Bear in mind they recently changed their methodology to suppress the Labour vote

Without that change it would look like this

What’s screwing the tories is that the don’t knows, that a lot of people assumed would swing back tory are now saying reform and thats helping Labour in the red wall but even a small swing is helping lib dems in blue wall

If the polls are right & don’t change (still a big if) then there’s a real chance they could be reduced to a few tens of MPs

So if anything I think we’ll see a Labour majority

Nailed on surely?

Thats from the deltapoll one you posted earlier

Well if the seat prediction from that poll is 19 for the Tories then it is clearly not worth considering. Well certainly not in terms of seat predictions.

Obviously no one knows the general election result two weeks in advance, what it will be is pure guesswork. At best educated guesswork.

But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won’t win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.

But certain things we can be totally sure of. For example we can be absolutely certain that the LibDems won’t win the election, or that the Greens will not get 10 MPs. Or that the Tories will get less than 20 seats.

But that’s just a feature /bug of FPTP, once you get  below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats depending on what the other parties are doing and where your vote is massing

Here’s those same numbers in the FT calculator

Fwiw I dont think it will be quite that bad for the Tories, not least because the ‘supermajority’ fear will kick in for many wavering tories in the polling booth

The ft poll of polls looks like this in their calculator which is more likely assuming the polls dont all start looking like deltapoll or redfield Witton

All it would take would be the tories to drop 2 points below where they are at the moment and a bit of tactical voting could see them entire parliamentary party fitting into a minibus

once you get below 20% of the vote share you can have anything from 0-100 seats

Sure, I get that. But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.

So whilst I am prepared to entertain the possibility than next month they might well, possibly, get less than 30%, I think it is probably fair to dismiss the possibility of them recieving less than 20%.

It isn’t going to happen.

But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.

So what?

Nice one Burger King… 😂

Interesting that for where I live, electoral calculus is now showing LD, as is FT. GetVoting is saying labour, and stopthetories not yet predicting.

LD feels more likely based on previous local authority voting and LD run district council, so suspect LD is the tactical choice, and Tories more likely to go LD than Lab

Be interesting to know the data/algorithm that GetVoting are using that low-balls the LD share…….if they get it wrong they could skew the vote and let the Tory through

Get Voting says to vote labour here in Epsom. Labour aren’t even campaigning .

Lib posters are the only ones in evidence. I’ve had Tory flyers and even green but no labour.

I think I will vote lib.

Found it really handy that the current toady MP warned us that only voting blue could stop the snp taking his seat.

I have to vote snp to counter my father’s blue vote (he has early stage dementia and is fixated on the independence possibility, which he is against. In a weird logic he is voting to defeat the snp because he hates the fact they are making him have to vote Tory)

 But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.

If 2019 showed us anything, it demonstrated that folks are more than willing to be transactional now. cf. public in historically strong Labour areas voting for the Tories to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and reject Corbyn. The Tories have **** it for a great many folks, including their own traditional supporters.

Yeah, one of the big mistakes I made about 2019 was that I was adamant that there was no way a long term labour voter was going to vote conservative. Just wouldn’t happen I thought

Last night I was doing a twitter/bluesky roundup and came across an interesting comment which basically said ignore your personal biases and just focus on the data. Now I accept that the Tories have never dropped below 30% etc etc, and yes, it’s not really a bias, but the data is telling us a very different story.

Attempting to predict the seats accurately must be very challenging.  I’d be so happy to see the tories beaten down to third and 2 to 3 weeks ago that wasn’t far off at all according to electoral calculus.  Iirc tories about 63, lib 59 was showing, lab 485.  Since then rishi has made several mistakes,  Nigel has reappeared, lab has done well,  however as of this morning lab down to 461, most of those seats are now predicted tory at 80, lib up a couple,  reform 1.

I can’t remember the %support numbers as I focus on the seats.  My guess is the trend will continue with wavering tory voters deciding they will be well punished and a viable tory opposition is important so they will vote tory,  resulting in them getting 100 or more seats.   I’d love to see something happen that shifted public views and made people think lib or a lib coalition,  would be the most effective opposition.  Perhaps such a shift would see  tory vote collapse resulting in them finishing 3rd.  It’s just a dream,  but possible perhaps.

Anyway,  we seem to be on track for a 200-220+ labour majority at the moment I reckon.  Stunning and to think where things were in 2019.

But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.

So what?

My point wasn’t clear? Really?

I don’t believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don’t believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.

Sure I am prepared to believe that it might be there worse general election ever but I’m not prepared to believe that they will be down to just 19 MPs.

Indulging in fantasies might be fun but a bit pointless if you are trying to have a serious political discussion.

When do we start thinking beyond getting elected? The Times predicts that LP and Tories would effectively freeze the NHS budget for 5yrs and the figures Reeves is tossing about are minimal. If she thinks she can get private business to invest, why haven’t they done so since 2008?

When do we start thinking beyond getting elected?

What, the 2029 election?  Can’t see much happening in next 5 years based on the aims of Labour with zero ambition.

My only hope is that the Labour Party revolts when in power and ditches Starmer and Reeves within a year.

I don’t believe that they will receive less than 20%. In the same way that I don’t believe any other extraordinary unlikely scenario.

I’m with you on this one Ernesto. I don’t care what the polls are presently saying. There are loads of Tory voters who are presently flirting with Farage (and telling pollsters that), but when it comes to July 4th their muscle memory will default to putting their cross in the Tory vote, same as usual

I’d love to think the Tories are in for the day of reckoning they so richly deserve but I won’t believe it until I see it

But the Tories have never received less than 30% in any general election in the last 200 years.

Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option  though ?

Anyway… more proof (as if it were needed) of how desperate, totally bereft of ideas and completely detached from reality they now are…

Jeremy Hunt: Liz Truss economic plans were ‘good thing to aim for’

“Hunt praised Truss for “accepting the mistakes she’d made with good grace” and repeatedly refused to accept her plans had left a long-term impact on the economy. When pressed on whether he thought the country was currently battling negative effects, he said: “No I don’t think it’s had an effect. I don’t think it’s the main cause.”

Christ on a bendybus! Where do you even start with that?

Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster. So who are they actually contacting and how? Do they rely on people who still have their home numbers in the phone book?

I read the hunt article earlier.

Utterly bereft of competency now,  and it almost seems impossible but the rhyming slang of his name just gets more and more accurate

Have they ever had to contend with another right wing option though ?

Obviously the Tories have not been the only right-wing option in the last 200 years.

Edit: And in the case of Reform UK Nigel Farage he loves to claim that it is a totally new party but as usual he’s talking bollocks. It’s just the latest name for the Nigel Farage vanity party.

franksinatraFull Member
Just out of curiosity, has anyone here ever bene polled? Quick straw poll in the office shows that no-one here has ever been contacted by a pollster.

yes, twice but online