UK Election!

Reform will never be in power so it kind of doesnt matter, but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts, that would surely lead  to the markets going nuts &  inflation which would be Truss levels on steroids

Yet they wont be pushed on this

I completely agree, he’s almost treated as a pundit, not a politician, which of course is absolutely mad and lets him get away with all manner of sins.

He’s spouting off about how as ‘most popular 2nd party’ (his words, not mine) he should be allowed at the main leaders debates. I’m very mixed, on one hand the oxygen of publicity vs on the other, sunlight as a disinfectant. I suspect their lack of real potential to enact any sort of policy opposition on most other things other than immigration would be quite quickly exposed. Unfortunately OTOH he’s also a better, more charismatic speaker than both Sunak or SKS and some don’t see beyond that.

Didn’t he have the offer of a long interview with Nick Robinson, same as all the other parties, and then pull out? Why, and is it being rescheduled? (Rhetorical question, I know the reason given was that the interview was arranged with the Leader of Reform, then the leadership changed and no-one from the BBC contacted Farage to check he was still on for it. What was the real reason, I’m sure he could easily have made it if he’d wanted, even to a BBC North studio for a video interview)

I think grimep is a silly trolling nob

The problem with that sort of behaviour is that in this case it really isn’t harmless.  It validates the opinions of others who might not be thinking about it at all and that slows down all efforts to do something about it.  Normally I’m good for letting people post what they like but in this case it’s dangerous.

and they are a nob of course

Best for Britain have published their tactical voting guide and latest polling. https://www.getvoting.org/

Just checked mine…Jesus **** Christ…

Reform will never be in power so it kind of doesnt matter, but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts

Its more subtle than that and there do seem to be some pretty good arguments in favour of the proposal although dont take it to quite the extreme reform do. The ECB for example already does a limit variant.

https://www.ft.com/content/2fbe1549-33d4-472a-9cc0-f7791459d3a9?accessToken=zwAGGkc_ZjkAkc8vvhVJM9RHKtOcwPd5FFnTqQ.MEYCIQCXvJdlBPBL68vHe_KjhYmkkGATHgDU3Avhin6KHZuK0wIhANMiWsCg3goYPJZ_4WMwRGyphvCQiQLnKezFjJKs43FG&sharetype=gift&token=a14554af-0966-4ffa-a6c1-6834002cb94e

Just checked mine…Jesus **** Christ…

There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? :)

There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? 🙂

**** that.

@BillOddie
Full Member

Cheers. 👍

Dead heat between Labour/Tory in my seat.

I don’t subscribe to or follow any political people, accounts, blogs, pages etc.

Im guessing that the algorithms place me as ‘undecided’. I’ve removed both TikTok and X apps as all I was seeing were Reform posts.

i think there’s a real possibility of a EU referendum situation where the Right Bots are all over social media in a way that Progressives aren’t and the election results will reflect this.

But I hope I’m wrong

MRP Update: First MRP Since Farage’s Return

Suggesting up to 12 Reform seats.

Well, we’ll see.

BillOddie
Full Member
There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? 🙂

**** that.

Not a choice I need to make thank goodness but if my seat was between Tory and Reform… id be voting Tory.

Yuk. At a macro level though, it’s the right call to make, imo if course.

I’m very mixed, on one hand the oxygen of publicity vs on the other, sunlight as a disinfectant. 

I have no problem with him being platformed, it’s the lack of scrutiny of what he says that drives me nuts. It’s only that uncritical airtime that allows him the semblance of credibility – Paxman would have stopped this nonsense long ago.

There’s a quandary…Conservative tactical vote? 🙂

**** that

Never say never

As an aside, and a serious question, is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory’s extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats

is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory’s extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats

Great question, I’d love the Tories to not even be the Opposition and Reform MPs to be found to be a load of work shy grifters, but it’s a high risk strategy

Just had an election leaflet from Reform through my door, complete with AI generated image of huge numbers of brown people walking from the cliffs of Dover. Obviously it’s AI generated because that hasn’t actually happened. Utter ***** but fortunately I don’t think they’ll get a look in according to polling in my constituency. Still disappointing that it’s the only piece of election literature I’ve had so far.

Never say never

As an aside, and a serious question, is a small number of reform seats acceptable in exchange for the Tory’s extinction and third party status? For arguments sake, less than 50 Tory seats

IMO yes, because they can’t achieve anything with 12 seats and like the UKIP/Brexit/reform councillors or MEPs they’ll be shown up for how crap they really are. I’d put money on at least three being booted out of parliament before the end of the end of the second year.

I have no problem with him being platformed, it’s the lack of scrutiny of what he says that drives me nuts.

Yep me too. If he’s the head of a political party (again, just like all the other times he’s been in one) just treat him as if he’s a mainstream politician and demand the same transparency that you’d expect from Labour or the Cons. It’s the pass that’s offered because the press insists on treating them like a single issue party, even though that’s not how they even see themselves . It’s bonkers, and it treats the public like idiots and mugs

Latest Opinium/Observer poll

Using these figures FT seat predictor says

Electoral Calculus says

but their magic money tree plan is to suspend interest payments on UK debt/gilts, that would surely lead  to the markets going nuts &  inflation which would be Truss levels on steroids

This is not correct.

They are talking about not paying interest on reserves for commercial banks at the BoE. It is not necessary to pay this bill at all. It has nothing to do with government spending or gilts. It’s just a gift to commercial banks that keep these reserves for liquidity purposes. It is a shame that it’s Farage that has said this. But he’s correct in terms of technicalities.

The problem with this Truss  situation is it has people generally terrified of doing anything that involves government spending, and the details are often incorrect.

It’s not a magic money tree plan either.

It is time to end the massive government subsidy that’s being paid to the UK’s commercial banks

It’s worth noting this money that has interest paid on was a spill over from Q/E – so created by the BoE in the first place.

Reform will never be in power

Never say that. The orange buffoon / failed reality star is president….
The other issue is the public platform they have been given to spread their toxic views.

No climate crisis

Close down 55 Tufton Street

 but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted.

I really don’t see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what’s wrong with that?

If the problem is that it was designed to provoke a reaction why have so many people reacted?

Personally I welcome it as firstly it gives an opportunity to refute, if anyone can be bothered, something which many hard-right commentators and politicians constantly claim.

And secondly coming from grimep it pretty much sums up the likely validity of the nonsense.

I don’t really understand why it causes so much outrage. How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep’s daft comment? I would suggest 0.

So Farage PLC is offering tax cuts of near double the amount promised in Mad Liz’s catastrophic budget.

The thing is though, he will not be forming a government so can offer whatever the hell he likes.

Oh, they’d save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.

Sure they would, sure they would…

There is no climate crisis, worsening or otherwise, and even if there were, Britain’s essential use of oil and gas would have no effect on it.

Jesus Christ, are you really as thick as shit in real life or is this a performative act?

How many on STW now doubt that there is man-made climate due to grimep’s daft comment? I would suggest 0.

Zero, but that’s not the point.  It’s like imagining that the nonsense that politicians come out with is meant to sway our opinion.  It’s not, it’s for the people who are swithering.  Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy.  Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point as STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects

Allowing that stuff to even exist gives it some form of legitimacy.

That stuff exists whether you like it or not. Banning it on STW won’t stop it existing. Challenge it, ridicule it, or ignore it, would be my preferred alternative to banning it.

So much for the liberalism of middle-class liberals eh?……….BAN IT!!!

Edit: And however much you, and me, would prefer it wasn’t, climate change denial is an issue in the current general election campaign.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2998klx2y0o

STW might be considered authoritative on some subjects

Okay, I think you may be getting carried away now.

ernielynch
Full Member

“but I have no idea why climate change denial is permitted.”

I really don’t see the problem. So grimep has decided to finish off the very last bit of any credibility that he/she/they might have possibly have had by repeating some widely expressed nonsense, what’s wrong with that?

I tend to agree with that. Grimep makes perfectly normal posts on other subjects in the forum.

When he posts controversial views it just serves as a cautionary take to people of where “doing your own research” can lead you. There is also no problem in my eyes of pointing out the error in his thinking, mind you.

I don’t think he deserves the ban hammer or anything, not that, that’s my call to make!

All the above is just my opinion of course.

Farage in Merthyr, JC…
What do we think of 20mph…booooooooo!!!

Absolute pantomime, really is monorails territory and beyond. I find him incredibly dangerous on the whole.

Oh, they’d save £50 billion ridding us of government wastage apparently.

Very interesting Reform ‘contract’ launch. Positioning themselves to the left of Labour on the economy and to the right of the tories on social issues. Farage unashamedly calling the policies a radical alternative to the status quo. I guess now we’ll see just what appetite there is in the country for radical change as opposed to more of the same.

This stuff is going to stick. Think I’ll make a prediction now that he’ll be PM within 10 years (assuming he can last the distance).

^^Lol, good video, never seen it before. Spot on too.

At least he hasn’t learned the lessons of the far right in France and elsewhere and he’s still attacking the young for their ‘poisoned’ minds.

https://theconversation.com/how-marine-le-pen-managed-to-gain-ground-with-youth-voters-and-why-her-success-isnt-being-replicated-by-the-us-right-181937

Beyond reframing, though, the Rassemblement National also proposed a number of concrete fiscal policies that target youth voters. In her 2022 presidential platform, Le Pen promised to eliminate taxes for those under 30, offer financial assistance to student workers and increase housing for students.

Le Pen and the Rassemblement National haven’t convinced everyone. It remains a primarily anti-immigrant, anti-European nationalist party that often faces accusations of Islamophobia, racism and homophobia.

When Le Pen advanced to the runoffs after the first round of voting on April 10 – barely edging out far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon – huge numbers of students turned out in protest across France, declaring that they would vote “neither Macron, nor Le Pen.” Many young voters in 2022 abstained from voting altogether – an estimated 30% of those under 35 years old in the first round, climbing to a historic 40% in the runoff.

Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a ‘positive’ way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he’s in with a good chance of winning next time.

At some point our hair will literally be on fire and Grimep and the other apologists for the rapacious hypercapitalists who fund this idiocy in order to maximise profit and nothing else will still be saying there’s no climate change.

My instinct is to say, of course he’s allowed to say that here, freedom of speech, though etc., but then I think, hmm, maybe people said the same about sexism, racism, ablism etc. Perhaps climate denialism should be treated with the same social contempt.

There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism. Trump benefits from it in the US and it’s always been a feature of mainland European proto-facism.

There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.

I guess we won’t really know for sure until after the election but around 6% of young men support Reform was the last number I could find.  Not sure if the number of young women even registers so yes, if Reform has any meaningful support among the young it’s from men.

That could all change if anyone realises that no one is courting the youth vote and decides to start making promises.

Hopefully Farage will never figure out how to reframe his xenophobic message in a ‘positive’ way and realise if he stops trying to appeal to racist pensioners by demonising the youth and actually offers the youth something to vote for (no matter how unrealistic) then he’s in with a good chance of winning next time.

I think for someone like Farage you can only appeal to one or the other, not both, if you appeal to the youth it upsets the older racists & appealing to old racists upsets the yourh

There’s a real problem with some young men who are attracted to Farage’s kind of Andrew Tate nihilism.

Indeed it *normalises* such behaviour and attitudes. It makes people think this is the standard of intelligence and integrity needed to hold a public office.

Go back and watch a few videos of people like Major, Brown, Blair, Ashdown, Cable and Thatcher (gasp). Whether you agree or disagree with them, they all spoke with a belief and a vision of what country they wanted and why they thought it was good for the country was a reasoned and intelligent process. Many of our current politicians look like spitting image in comparison.

20 years ago, men and women divided equally in relation to their voting left or right. I saw some stats recently which looked at the US, UK, Germany and South Korea and currently the divide between the sexes averages out at around 20 points.

Younger men being attracted to reform could just be a reflection of this general trend. In order to counter that trend one would first have to ask what over the last 20 years has caused this divide?

Let it exist and on the next AI learning pass that may be considered as a valid view point

That’s a real concern. Freedom of speech etc is fine, but with a lot of online stuff being potentially shaped by AI, facts need to feature higher than, well, bollocks.

Leaving aside STW being a basis for truth and integrity