UK Election!

zippykonaFull Member
Is it physically possible for the tories to boot Sunak out, get Lord FarFar in and amalgamate the 2 parties before the vote?

No the candidates have been selected and the ballots printed, they can’t change those

In fact people have already started postal voting

Surely not enough time for the cons to do it according to their constitution, and I imagine party affiliations on ballot sheets are fixed now also.

I guess there could be some kind of mutual love-in pact where one candidate in a seat says “please vote for the other guy”. But enforcing that on the ground might be tricky.

I’m inclined to agree with the theory that although Farage makes a whole heap of noise and is given huge amounts of undeserving attention by the media, his ‘party’ won’t win any seats under FPTP and I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton. The Lib Dem’s have suffered from this problem for years, have got quite good at targeting appropriate seats but still struggle to win more than a handful.
Come July 5th all the hysteria over the revolting Reform will seem foolish. During an election we tend to forget that the media love drama more than boring reality.

I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton

Ukip twice in the last 3 elections before Carswell switched to the independent?

The guy with the long curly hair 😂.

The Guardian are reporting this morning that prominent Tory MPs have been noticeable by their  absence as they’re all too busy getting their teams in place for the upcoming leadership election instead.

The irony of that being that quite a few of them will likely lose their seats before they get chance to put their plans into operation.

In other irony-meter-busting news ‘Lord’ Dave has accused Nigel Farage of Trying to destroy the Tory party’. Maybe you should look a bit closer to home for the person responsible for that one Dave? Maybe to the bloke who arrogantly assumed that a referendum on EU membership would be an easily-won formality?

Tory leadership hopefuls ‘already lobbying’ to replace Sunak

Watching that video above, they do have some valid points. Immigration, mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist. The sexual education of children too, people dont like being told there are 50 genders, and dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know). Farage is standing up for those people , when the mainstream politicians just ignore their concerns. Thats why the fringe parties are getting votes, the main ones dont want to say anything that may cause some debate. That they have no other policies is lost to many/most people, all they hear is soundbites that they care about the people, it clearly isnt enough, but the main parties are their own worst enemies in being so tightly controlled, with little chance to express anything other than basic non controversial views.

people dont like being told there are 50 genders, and dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know). Farage is standing up for those people

No they’re not being taught that, but farage standing up for people being outraged about something that isn’t real is exactly what he does

Especially ironic when brexit helped increase immigratiin, 96% of which is legal, we’re issuing endless visas because FOM has stopped the flow of skilled & unskilled workers

Farage is standing up for those people

No he isn’t. He’s using them to elevate his own agenda. He’s a narcissist, pure and simple.

The best thing to do with a narcissist is to ignore them. Giving Farage the oxygen of publicity was a huge error in the 2010s.

I recently spent an evening arguing with my brexit-supporting, anti-vax, anti-woke, anti-immigrant family. It got rather heated and unpleasant, but I came away realising that while I may think I’m right, I didn’t have any arguments that could actually convince them. Ultimately they think I live in a bubble and don’t understand the real world. They probably have a point.

The sexual education of children too, people dont like being told there are 50 genders

You know this is all just complete bollocks made up by the Daily Mail, right? When asked to provide actual examples of this they go quiet and stare at their shoes

Its like the Witch scene in the Holy Grail

”she turned me into a newt!”

”… I got better….”

What they’re doing is manufacturing totally fanciful and bogus ‘problems’ that only they can offer ‘common sense’ solutions to.

They’ve been doing it since 2016 when they realised they could pin all their own failings on the EU and 52% of the population were gullible enough to believe them.

… and how’s their ‘solution’ to that particular problem presently working out? Somewhat unsurprisingly, none of them want to talk about that any more

Bit depressing that the right wingers can make noise & get attention but when the Labour mos left to set up the Independent group it all fizzled out.

Immigration, mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist. 

An adult conversation can be had about immigration – I’m sure there are exceptions but it’s when people start conflating all migration with illegal immigration, blame migrants for shortfalls in public services, accuse refugees of coming here to claim benefits, the fresh suggestion that foreign students are bringing their mums as dependants (huh?), that refugees are a danger, etc etc etc, that’s when you’re liable to be branded racist. As I say, I’m sure there are exceptions, but if people dislike being branded rascist then not being rascist is a very good defence.

As a starting point in the debate about migration, it shouldn’t be forgotten it’s skyrocketed since the Brexit Farage insisted on in order to control it. People who think he has the answers don’t realise or forget how ruthlessly he lies to them, and the media plays a big part in allowing him to lie so unchallenged (I’m looking at you, Question Time).

Saw my first Tory election poster today – admitedly in the garden of our (annoyingly good, helpful and supportive) local Tory councilor.

Did get a flyer through for the LibDem candidate, and sod tactical voting, he’s getting my vote! There is no doubt that middle aged men with a LibDem orange mohican are under represented in parliament and this needs to change

his ‘party’ won’t win any seats under FPTP and I’d be quite surprised if he won in Clacton.

Those were my exact same thoughts when Farage called the press conference to announce that he was standing.

However since then it has become obvious that you need to be in denial to carry on thinking that.

It seems certain now that he will win Clacton and Reform UK might pick up a couple more seats.

If you look at the opinion polls they are very clearly all over the place and it can be very hard to make any sense of them.

But whilst it is impossible to have any sort of reasonable idea of the likely makeup of the next parliament the polls can leave us absolutely certain of three things.

Firstly that the Tories will do extremely badly, no one doubts that includes the Tories themselves. Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well. And thirdly that Keir Starmer will be the prime minister the following week.

I can’t see how anyone can come to any different sort of conclusions. The reason it is so hard imo to predict the size of Labour’s majority is because we are entering new territory, it is clear that British politics has changed and it is no longer as predictable as it once was. The Tory Party crisis is unprecedented in UK history, as far as I am aware.

(Personally I suspect that the LibDems might do better on July 4th than they are currently expected to do, and there might be a couple of surprises from independents and possibly the Greens on election night. But unlike the other points that isn’t backed up by any sort of hard evidence)

mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist.

No you are only likely to be branded a racist if you are a racist.

Immigration is limited. The only political party which I am aware of that has a policy of the no immigration controls at all is the Socialist Workers Party, and they have never dictated UK immigration policies.

dont like it even more that their children are being taught that (are they? I dont know).

😆 🤣 😂

Just seen this:

https://www.newsshopper.co.uk/news/24388615.greenwich-new-conservative-councillor-by-election/

Although it is impossible to extrapolate the likely level of support for political parties on a national level from council by-elections I find the results of Thursday’s Greenwich by-election really quite interesting.

If Reform UK have become the natural home for so many Tory voters why did the Tory candidate receive more than five times more votes than the Reform UK candidate?

I remain convinced that Reform UK will do very well on July 4 and the Tories very badly but it’s impossible to predict beyond that imo.

I can’t see how anyone can come to any different sort of conclusions. The reason it is so hard imo to predict the size of Labour’s majority is because we are entering new territory

Indeed Ernesto. Nobody actually knows how this will play out but believe me nobody in the Labour party is taking anything for granted.

I’m just back from delivering more Labour election material (in the pissing rain, obviously) and I’ll be getting more stuff dropped off this afternoon to deliver through the week.

This is an ultra-marginal constituency that changes hands regularly. The Tory majority is the smallest in the country at 100 votes, yet I’ve had a constant stream of Tory election bumph through the door. More arrived yesterday even though the latest local polls are predicting a labour majority of 3,500+. I don’t doubt that Reform will take a load of votes off the Tories, but be in no doubt, the Tories are fiercly contesting this seat. Rishi has been here twice since the election was anounced.

It seems mental to me that they’re pouring so many resources into this constituency as they are surely absolutely certain to lose it, aren’t they? Aren’t they? At the end of the day until the votes are counted you just never know, so nobody is presuming anything. We’re doing everything to make sure people get out there and actually vote and don’t just assume that this is in the bag. It isn’t. Yet.

Good effort binners

mention that you want to limit immigration, and you are branded a racist

Not so,

Blaming everything that ails the country on brown people, like Farage did on Sky a couple of Sundays ago, you probably are a little bit racist.

Can’t get a GP appointment? Foreigners.

Traffic jam? Immigrants.

If that resonates then maybe – a teeny tiny bit?

I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos.  Clearly some form of disability there.

“ I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos. Clearly some form of disability there.”

Why, can’t disabled people have a view on things? I’ve said it before, people have different views to the majority on here, no one listens to them, possibly as their views are too strong, or maybe they are saying what they actually think, and people dont like it? Their views are as valid as anyone elses.
Remember the woman in Lancs, iirc, with Gordon Brown? She asked about immigration, and was called a bigot by the Prime Minister. She was expressing her views which werent at all racist, but was called a bigot, when all she wanted was to be heard, and give her views.
Labour or the Tories are deemed to be not listening, or doing anything, no wonder Reform are doing well.
These are not my views, but certainly the views of others, who should not be dismissed as extremists, remember Brexit where the remain crowd dismissed anyone who wanted to leave as idiots, and didnt even bother to properly campaign on the benefits of staying in? It’s happening again now, the mainstream parties are dismissing the views of many people, not promoting why they are wrong, the Tories are utterly useless,as expected, but Labour should be doing more to counteract the many things that D.Mail/Express claim, and lead to working class people voting for Reform and other extreme Parties.

and lead to working class people voting for Reform and other extreme Parties.

Be interested to see the data that says Reform’s support is coming from good honest salt of the earth working class people.

Recently voting has been split fairly evenly across all socio-economic classes.

Labour or the Tories are deemed to be not listening, or doing anything, no wonder Reform are doing well.

We all know the Tories and their proxies in the press are blatant liars (to say the least) but the level of dishonesty about immigration is absolutely off the chart. They offered leaving the EU and ending freedom of movement up as a ‘cure’ for immigration levels. Since 2016 the levels of immigration has tripled. Why? Because our economy and ageing society cannot function without high levels of immigration. Its as simple as that. Their corporate paymasters demand a stream of skilled and inskilled labour, but they dare not be honest with the public and say it.

The fabled ‘economic growth’ has been virtually non-existant for 14 years now, but the tiny amount managed has been fuelled entirely by immigrants. Without it this country would be utterly ****ed, to be perfectly blunt.

And right now they’re scapegoating desperate refugees for everything, demonising them and coming up with nonsense like Rwanda as their next ‘cure’. Their numbers are tiny and absolutely insignificant compared to legal migration which has gone through the roof on their watch

The answer to this is to process their claims, but under the Tories the Home Office has become completely dysfunctional and simply cannot do this, so its back to scapegoating and demonising to cover for their own biblical levels of failure and ineptitude, instead of doing anything about it.

The whole thing is an absolute pack of lies, just like Brexit, but opportunist snake-oil salesmen like Farage are never ones to miss a trick when it comes to offering simple solutions to complex problems, to further their own agendas

Remember the woman in Lancs, iirc, with Gordon Brown? She asked about immigration, and was called a bigot by the Prime Minister. She was expressing her views which werent at all racist, but was called a bigot, when all she wanted was to be heard, and give her views.

She complained that people are coming here to claim benefits and vulnerable people here can’t.

It seems certain now that he will win Clacton and Reform UK might pick up a couple more seats.

Not necessarily because as you said:

If you look at the opinion polls they are very clearly all over the place and it can be very hard to make any sense of them.

But whilst it is impossible to have any sort of reasonable idea of the likely makeup of the next parliament the polls can leave us absolutely certain of three things.

Firstly that the Tories will do extremely badly, no one doubts that includes the Tories themselves.

That’s clear.

Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well.

That’s not so clear. I’m seeing polls suggesting 0-7 seats.

And thirdly that Keir Starmer will be the prime minister the following week.

Clearly.

Personally I suspect that the LibDems might do better on July 4th than they are currently expected to do

I think that’s a distinct possibility. The higher of the forecasts are due to Reform splitting the right wing vote so ideally I want to see Reform doing well enough to gift the LibDems more seats but not well enough to win any themselves.

Fingers crossed.

“ I have a bit of an issue with Politics Joe putting people like that lad with long curly hair in their videos.  Clearly some form of disability there. “

hadn’t even thought of that, I thought he was taking the piss with his closing comment.

Secondly that Reform UK will do extremely well.

That’s not so clear. I’m seeing polls suggesting 0-7 seats.

I did consider whether to emphasis that I was talking in relative terms but I decided that it should be obvious.

If Reform UK get 3 to 4 seats on July 4 it will be considered that they will have done extremely well.

And imo they will indeed have done. It will be a seriously negative development imo as it will undoubtedly provide them with something upon which to build.

Reform UK are a dangerous distraction for a variety of reasons including the fact that they have nothing useful to offer.

the fresh suggestion that foreign students are bringing their mums as dependants (huh?)

That is actually true. There are significant Middle eastern state sponsored student programmes in the UK. Over the years I’ve been involved with those populations via my job and many of them do bring parents over with them

I think that’s a distinct possibility. The higher of the forecasts are due to Reform splitting the right wing vote so ideally I want to see Reform doing well enough to gift the LibDems more seats but not well enough to win any themselves.

I think on day this will be closer than most predict.  Reform+ Conservative total is ahead of or within 1pc of Labour.  Question is will Tory voters actually back Farage on the day it counts knowing it will split the vote in a swing constituency.  Unlikely given electoral history.

My hunch is that we’ll wake up to a hung parliament / no overall majority on the morning.  This isn’t based on anything credible I’ve been too the bookies about, but more that British politics recently has thrown up so many surprises and convoluted situations, and a hung parliament is about the only thing we’ve not had..

Reform+ Conservative total is ahead of or within 1pc of Labour.

It is important not to lose sight that Tory voters and Reform UK voters are not the same thing, so they can’t be lumped together as if they are a single entity.

If Reform UK don’t stand a candidate their supporters do not all go automatically to the Tories. I can’t remember the figures but I think something like 30% would vote Labour. And quite a few would probably not vote at all.

There are a variety of reasons why some people will back Reform UK, it’s not always simply a case of hating immigrants. Often they see backing Reform UK as a protest vote, or an anti-establishment vote, or that Reform UK listens to their concerns.

Obviously that’s all a misconstrued conclusion based on feeling left abandoned by the Labour Party but it doesn’t automatically make them Tories.

There are a variety of reasons why some people will back Brexit, it’s not always simply a case of hating immigrants. Often they see backing Brexit as a protest vote, or an anti-establishment vote, or that UKIP listens to their concerns.

;)

There are significant Middle eastern state sponsored student programmes in the UK. Over the years I’ve been involved with those populations via my job and many of them do bring parents over with them

How does that work then while they are here? I can see when one of the issues is housing availability the student goes from renting a room in a student house to renting a house but what happens for eg: work vs benefits (not nec being paid benefits but what is access to healthcare and so on?)

When you say state sponsored, that says to me funded, but that may not be the case.

When you say state sponsored, that says to me funded, but that may not be the case.

As an example, there’s the Saudi MOFA student programme in the UK. It’s a few years since it came across my desk but last time I saw it there were about 22,000 Saudis in the UK that consisted of students and their dependents which could be spouses or other family members and even in some cases, chaperones. The Qataris run a similar programme

https://www.mofa.gov.sa/en/eservices/Pages/svc90.aspx

The very latest opinion has Labour on a truly huge 46% with the Tories on their lowest rating for Savanta in 4 years.

https://x.com/Savanta_UK/status/1802030811421564970

And that particular poll doesn’t suggest that growing support for Reform UK is causing a dent in support for Labour.

Which is a bit more reassuring than the recent YouGov poll.

I reckon that the credibility of some polling companies might be seriously undermined after July 4, whilst the credibility of others might be enhanced.

What’s this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they’re hyping up?

Heard it this morning on the radio.

I’m surprised there’s not more noise about it a it’s clearly what’s intended by announcing before the weekend.

What’s this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they’re hyping up?

just seen an oblique reference to this on bluesky but i cant find anything about it

What’s this LBC general election announcement on Monday morning that they’re hyping up?

Heard it this morning on the radio.

I’m surprised there’s not more noise about it a it’s clearly what’s intended by announcing before the weekend.

Dunno?, Ian Dale and Nick Ferrari announcing a wa*nker party?…..not listened to LBC since the Global lawyers imposed an NDA on Sangita

a hung parliament is about the only thing we’ve not had..

Well, not since 2010