Yeah but @kelvin Tinge all flip flopped in the time it took your to put your socks on this morning. I think Flip flop Chukka did 3 parties within a year.
Lol Gapes and Berger both left because of Brexit according to their resignation letters (and Labour apparently not being Labour enough LMFAO) and Berger said she was shown kindness and warmth By Corbyn.
And guess what they’re all back now there is no possiblity of a S/M – and the party has moved to right. Apparently Gapes says it’s his Labour home. FFS.
Nah, she left the Labour Party for exactly the same reasons as Chuka Umunna did, because she is a right-winger who couldn’t stomach the Labour Party offering a radical alternative to the Tories, and her case also any criticism of Israel’s brutal policies.
We know what excuse she gave for leaving but plenty of Jewish Labour Party members strongly disagreed with her.
Chuka Umunna would also no doubt be welcomed with open arms, and the damage he deliberately tried to inflict on the Labour Party totally ignored. Because he is right-wing.
@kelvin I thought you weren’t allowed to be a member if you were previously a member of another party?
@ernielynch I think the Tory opinion poll trope comes from the fact that Cameron thought it would settle down his party when he promised it in his election manifesto. So yes, it was a Tory led vote but as you quite rightly pointed out it was backed by other parties. You can argue the rights and wrongs about that and their motivations for doing so (it would never have made any difference if they opposed but would potentially have made life difficult later on) but at this point it’s moot really.
Monetarism shown to be making things worse but it’s still the way forward apparently. Although ‘don’t know’ might be waiting for some actual decent direction on the economy by either said political party to make some big useful fiscal choices.
🚨🚨New Voting Intention🚨🚨 Labour lead is ten points in latest results from Deltapoll. Con 35% (+8) Lab 45% (-5) Lib Dem 7% (-2) Other 13% (-2) Fieldwork: 17th – 20th March 2023 Sample: 1,054 GB adults (Changes from 10th – 13th March 2023) pic.twitter.com/UX1o9lnxl0
Some superb Labour strategy and media management going on at the moment, ensuring that the only thing that differentiates them from the tories is the one policy which they know they’ll always come second best. I’m beginning to think they don’t want to be in government.
Mission Lead Government! Not quite as catch as Stop the Boats is it? 🙄
Starmer’s problem is that he’s spent two years selling himself as a responsible grownup who will take the job seriously and not do anything stupid. But now he’s up against someone who is rapidly looking like the PM he wants to be and he hasn’t got a clue what to do in response other than double down on mediocrity.
It’s going to be quite a spectacular fall from a nailed on landslide to hoping for a hung parliament. And still the centrist idiots will say they weren’t right wing enough.
I’m not sure that I totally agree with that. Certainly Deltapoll appear to be all over the place. Traditionally Deltapoll methodology tends to favour the Tories more than most other pollsters typically putting the Labour lead at about 15-16%.
However a week ago Deltapoll for some reason gave Labour a huge 23%, so the now the much more modest 10% lead makes it appear that there has been a huge growth in Tory support.
Be that as it may other pollsters are much more stable. Yesterday Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ conducted a poll which gave Labour a very comfortable 21% over the Tories and is exactly the same lead Redfield & Wilton gave Labour a week ago, so no change. I reckon that 21% is probably the average Labour lead among all pollsters.
Nevertheless it is possible that the Tories standing in the polls is improving slightly, however I doubt that Stop The Boats has been a huge contributory factor in this.
What initially gave Labour a massive lead in the polls was Liz Truss’s installment in Number 10. It was her’s and Kwasi Kwarteng’s economic policies what done it. Many dyed-in-the-wool Tory voters were horrified at what they saw as fiscal irresponsibility which was so disapproved by the markets.
And many swing voters were shocked by a Tory government so brazenly pro-rich during an unprecedented cost of living crises.
I am really quite surprised that Rishi Sunak hasn’t done more to win much of that support back but perhaps we will see that starting to happen.
Despite the widely held view on here that the economy is in a mess it has been in a worse state in recent decades and many Tory voters will be aware that inflation is slowly falling and the UK looks set to avoid recession.
So if lack of faith in the Tories’s ability to manage the economy was the cause of their catastrophic collapse in support then it is renewed faith, however misplaced it might be, in their economic competence.
Stop The Boats might appeal to many Tory voters but it isn’t the deal clincher imo, the economy is.
I still think that the Tories will in all likelihood lose the next general badly but it would be a good idea, imo, if Labour looked like a government in waiting with ideas that inspired people.
Tory voters will be aware that inflation is slowly falling and the UK looks set to avoid recession
I don’t think so. I think recession is just delayed. There’s lots of recapitalisation going off in the States etc.
I’m think it’s going to be later in the year.
Assets have gathered momentum from interest income of interest rate rises – so the wealthy still has cash swilling about.
I don’t think voters and broadcasters understand the economy – it’s complex and you need to get under data to know what’s going off. In fact it’s surprising how the economy is often read back to front.
I genuinely think it’s the refreshed firm approach to boats. But we should wait for more polls over time I guess.
I don’t think folk understand the economy – it’s complex and you need to get under data to know what’s going off.
It is completely irrelevant whether they understand the economy. They are being told that inflation is falling and that the UK looks likely to avoid recession.
It is how voters perceive the situation that matters, not the reality. That is why the Tories and the LibDems won the argument of deficit reduction through austerity.
Before Liz Truss was PM the Labour lead over the Tories was about 5-8%, it shot up to as high as 30% after she became PM. It had nothing to do with immigration, small boats, or anything like that. And it had everything to do with the economy and the perceived Tory incompetence in managing it.
but it would be a good idea, imo, if Labour looked like a government in waiting with ideas that inspired people.
Well they’re gonna need more than vague missions and being grownups that’s for sure. Ironically the tories will benefit from Truss’s gargantuan incompetence as compared to her Sunak looks every bit of what Starmer claims/wants to be.
After literally years to develop its thinking on *how* it would implement the changes it’s clear there is very little substance behind it.
Take the example of the “zero carbon economy by 2030”.
The “mission” (is that a promise, an aspiration or a pledge?) relies on technologies that haven’t been invented yet, a concentrated investment likely to run into hundreds of £Bs in a 4 year period and literally no thinking on the inflationary effect that would have or how it would need to be controlled.
Then we have the “fastest growth” mission that means companies would need to grow faster than they have for many decades and literally no thinking on how that would happen.
Even with just 5 missions the top level thinking is vague and contradictory.
Labour might has well come up with a mission to give every household a pony – everyone in high rise flats would see through in exactly the same way.
Their biggest risk now is that Sunak increasingly looks to voters like a boring but safe pair of hands – happy to work in the background on the detail without making much of a fuss about it until it’s complete.
Those who worked with him at the Treasury when he was Chancellor recognised his ability to grasp the detail – it’s pretty clear that Rachel Reeves not only lacks that but can’t even think on the spot how to answer simple questions on whether alcohol tax is too high / too low.
Unless it changes sometime soon the offer to the electorate is Sunak and a team that can deliver change vs. a load of vague missions on the back of a much longer list of promises made by Keir Starmer nearly all of which he’s broken.
and literally no thinking on the inflationary effect that would have or how it would need to be controlled.
FGS! You need to be more worried about the environmental effect of climate change and the deflationary and geo-political effect of the instability it will cause. The crises we have dealt with recently or dealing with now are a tiny warmup to what will face us in 20-30 years. You won’t have much time to worry about inflation in a world on the brink of war and economic collapse.