Watford's lies

Is it me, or is the Met Office's web site and therefore their forecasting getting worse?
3 rides this week and so I've been keeping an eye on things.
Why do they bother if they can't get it correct from one 12hr period to the next?

(mini-rant over & I feel so much better for it!)

Forecasting was way off last w/e, and has been pretty hit and miss this week (for S Wales)

We live on an island that has a marine climate

Forecasting is never going to be accurate, it often gets close & often gets it wrong

They said it was going to be on and off rainy and mild, and it has been, what's the big error?

DD. You joke, right.
They said heavy rain at 12:00.
So I'm standing out in the garden, all soaped up to the hilt, waiting to shower it all off.
And so the sun comes out.

So far it's been more wrong than usual this week. One thing's for sure, don't plan your Easter w/end around their forecasting!

By the very nature of it, forcasting can be a tiny bit out, and someone rants that it's 'never right'

The rain might have missed you by 10 miles. It might have been early, or late.

Use the rainfall radar. That shows where it's actually raining NOW and how fast it's moving.

Also, learn how it works and forcast your own. It's not hard. 🙂

People tend to look at a waethermap that says 'sunny' or whatever, then expect it to be like that all day…..

To add to the comments above, we live on a tiny island on the edge of a huge ocean and just off a mass of land. Weather systems are huge and prone to change.

Anyway, it is a forecast not a promise. Take a jacket with you and MTFU 😉

I find that Accuweather is better at the 24hr+ forecasts. Certainly up here in the Aberdeen area anyway.

They should put a colour underlay on the maps indicating the varying level of confidence in the forecast.

You could always try wierd stuff like look out your window and take an educated guess?

Metcheck are telling me that it's windy and wet outside at the moment – well I can confirm there is a slight breath of wind and the sun is shining. don't put too much faith in an educated guess at the weather 🙂

You can't expect a forecast in May / April to be correct to the hour! Come on… this is a pretty complex and dynamic system at the best of times. All weather forecasts give a most probable outcome at any given time, its a prediction not a statement of fact. There is no certainty of outcome in any complex system.

Also, learn how it works and forcast your own. It's not hard.

People tend to look at a waethermap that says 'sunny' or whatever, then expect it to be like that all day…..

I don't think so! The Met spends millions on forecasting models so I think it must be a little harder than you suggest!

I'd be keen to learn if there's a more accurate web based forecast (if anyone knows, plase tell) that is more reliable as just taking a jacket is not a sensible answer to a more complex question.

Plus the forecast is for the Garston area, not the exact patch of ground you are standing on. It could be raining across the road…

It's April. It's utterly impossible currently to predict rain exactly.

Watch the TV weather forecast and listen to what they say. They'll say stuff like 'a band of showers moving across southern England' which, to an intelligent person, means you might get hit, you might not.

If you're on the web, your best bet is to look at the UK-wide weather maps, and the radar history. You can see what's coming and going near where you live.

For those making these sort of comments…

We live on an island that has a marine climate

Forecasting is never going to be accurate, it often gets close & often gets it wrong

You are both right and wrong. Some weather scenarios are clearly difficult to predict – where snow will fall instead of sleet / rain or localised event like showers / thunderstormss…

BUT – Our maritime climate should lend itself to accurate forecasting of the main frontal systems that develop in the Atlantic and come in on the prevailing south westerly winds. For the example of last w/e, the whole w/e was supposed to be a washout – luckily only Saturday am was as bad as forecast.

FWIW, the issue is not necessarily the accuracy of the forecasts, it is the accuracy of the forecasts given the level investment put into the Met office over the last 10 years, and perceived lack of improvement in forecasting.