Later this week there is a confidence debate and vote in Athens. My Greek collegues think the government will scrape through, in which case we have a referendum on the bail-out in Dec/Jan. If the government falls we have elections at the end of Nov say after which there is some kind of national government of Left and Right.
Default and exit may not be the worst option here. Will be chaos for a few months and very very painful (civil servants could see their income half, or worse) but ultimately having the Drachma back would allow Greece to deflate their way out.
The banks are already taking on 50% losses. If Greece has a proper default it will be the ECB and IMF who hurt…..they arent taking losses so far, thats why the latest deal isnt enough.
Greece is going to be a sideshow after a couple of months I think, attention is now on Italy. Next year is going to be ugly as hell. Luckily we have started to put our books in order, thank god we arent in the Euro.