22k is about the annual return on a buy-to-let costing 200k.

And there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.

It’s all f###ed anyway, seriously….we’re a top heavy ageing society, unless we all want to pay more tax (election results suggest not) then health care will get worse from an NHS perspective.

Blame ourselves for not having enough children, blame ourselves for having them later in life, blame the elderly for living too long etc etc…..either way it’s f###ed.

At my NHS trust our call volume goes up 5-7% each year, does our budget?…haha, good one, of course not, we’re being asked to do more with less each year….it’s unsustainable.

Did I mention it’s f###ed?…

If the electorate in general don’t want to pay more tax and couples continue to have just one or two children then society will have to get used to the idea of paying for health care again or at the vert least some kind of topping up system on top of your central taxation.

Anyway, that’s the harsh version of what’s happening out there, the other view is to see healthcare as a growth industry, society isn’t getting any younger and all these oldies need looking after….set up a private care agency, if you’re already a nurse, Dr, paramedic etc moonlight in the private sector….hourly rates are enormous, scared rich old people pay a fortune to be looked after….despite what’s been happening with the economy in recent years my earnings have steadily crept up by staying in the NHS for my full time 37.5 hours per week and then using the private sector as a medic in the Police Custody setting, or working doing house calls for out of hours providers….the money is out there.

With regard to changing Dr’s contracts, yes there is some crappy stuff going on…..but the push to have GPs in particular working nights and weekends again can’t come soon enough….A&E departments are stuffed full of people at the weekend who should be seeing their GP but one isn’t available so they trot off to hospital instead!

Your best bet for a good retirement is to have about 4 kids and hope one or more of them do well and can help finance your old age!…buy a cheap flat somewhere too and rent that out to supplement your ‘pension’….but don’t have it in your name or the ba####ds will make you sell it to pay for your shoddy 10min slot of ‘care’ that social services have allocated you in the morning and evening….I pity anybody with a good life expectancy these days, thankfully the blokes in my family drop dead at 75 from heart attacks, sounds good to the alternative of a nappy and pureed food until I’m 90.

Have a good day folks!

They might not need to go as far as Aus or the US

“The Scottish Government has confirmed it will not impose a contract on its junior doctors. Announcements are awaited from the Northern Ireland and Wales Governments.”

— http://m.bma.org.uk/news-views-analysis/news/2015/september/the-bma-will-fight-any-attempts-to-impose-a-contract

22k is about the annual return on a buy-to-let costing 200k.
And there are fairies at the bottom of the garden.

The source I quoted said returns were roughly 12.4% last year.

22k is about the annual return on a buy-to-let costing 200k

Nope 🙂

The source I quoted said returns were roughly 12.4% last year.

Specialist lender produces report that encourages people to invest in sector that they finance – call me a tad sceptical.

Specialist lender produces report that encourages people to invest in sector that they finance – call me a tad sceptical.

Do you have some alternative figures? (Serious question)

22k is about the annual return on a buy-to-let costing 200k
Nope

The source! The source!

You have to look at it over a long term, one year when they can be capital price spike is wholly unrepresentative of your likely return. This report does that to an extent and precedes the tax change which will decrease demand further.

EDIT: I would believe a long term average return of 6%, but a good or lucky investor will do better than this – the thing is you only hear the positive stories in the financial press.

will

Speculation

Another source:

http://www.theguardian.com/money/2015/apr/11/buy-to-let-landlords-earn-returns-of-up-to-1400-since-1996

1400% in 20 years is roughly 14% per annum, assuming that it’s more-or-less compound.

Look at the graph not the article – much lower returns in most years with negative returns in the crisis.

Again judicious choice of dates, take it back 8 year to 1988 and the result would have been very different. There is no doubt the return has been good though and 6% at the moment is pretty good.

EDIT: The other thing about these house price survey I have never found out how they take into account improvement expenditure.

That leaves out rental income, which my original source suggested made up about half of returns.

Phew! I’m glad I managed to stop this thread wandering off topic 😉

The point is that they chose the best starting date possible, take it back a few years and the returns drop because your “in price” is 50% higher – whatever the rent, that has a huge impact on your IRR – that is what I am illustrating, they is no question residential property has been one of if not the best asset class for some time but the average punter has earned a lot less than 10%.

EDIT: I will resist responding from now on – but if you think doctors have know all patients, imagine what it is like for property financiers.

the point is, the junior doctors are getting royally **** and the only possible explanation is that jeremy hunt is either a ****, or has more eyes than brain cells.

/edit – please do keep this on topic and go and debate house prices and RIO elsewhere. starting salaries are shit for junior doctors and under the new contract they’re not going to be increased as much by banding and they’re going to stay shit for a lot longer.

does the swear filter not work for edits? ****. clearly does, must mean that shit isn’t swearing.

The other point (well, question) is what is this going to do to the NHS, and does anyone know / realise / care any more?

(also, sorry for bringing up the point about unproductive income)

The Mrs and I can only conclude that JH is actually attempting to screw up the NHS by any means. Then once the system has fallen apart, people are dying waiting to be triaged in A&E and you can’t see your GP without a 10-week wait… then he’ll increase the pace of privatisation and **** us all over.

The other point (well, question) is what is this going to do to the NHS, and does anyone know / realise / care any more?

Do you mean in the quality of candidates coming through? It has already started to some degree. Historically Dr’s have been some of the countries academic elite.

Why would high achievers want to go in to a work environment where their earning potential is very limited, they get continually bashed by media and government, the goal posts keep changing for the worse etc etc.

The government is already reducing the number of trainee posts and the number of consultants, using cheaper alternatives to deliver clinical care. Trouble is the alternatives coming in are Nurse Specialist, who ironically get paid more than doctors, but they have a very limited knowledge base and scope of practice, so patient care will suffer.

Also at the moment Gorvernment has created another problem. By reducing trainee posts, and changing rules on who can come and work in the UK, there are now massive shortfalls of doctors both in hospital land and GP land. Doctors are getting fed up and leaving the country, or increasing numbers are actually leaving full time permanent jobs and becoming locums.

The NHS is now in a position where Locums are costing a fortune, Salaried GP’s can earn more than Partners, shifts on not being filled.

If the governemtn acted to retain staff, rather than making it more attractive to do anything other than work directly for the NHS, then a time bomb would not be about to go off.

To me and my dealing with NHS staff is a bit of a lottery.

I’d say 75% are not interested or really not arsed or want you out of the their way ASAP (I referring to GP’s BTW)
BUT 25% are **** miracle workers, who are totally and utterly brilliant.

The only problem I’ve found is you have to get through the 75% crowd before getting to the people who actually make the bloody difference. 😡

@badllama – targets affect a lot of this I think. The expected target for appointment times is less than 10 minutes. Difficult to do an in depth caring and engaged appointment for everyone you see during a day in that situation.

Right so lets get to the bottom of this:

How long are Junior doctors likely to be stuck on the bottom band?

Why shouldn’t more of doctors pay be subject to tax, NI and pension? Seems pretty a pretty good deal currently of not having to pay those on ‘anti-social’ hours time worked.

Realistically what portion of anti-social hours will they typically have to work a week?

I qualified as a doctor (after 6 years at uni) in 2006 and, at current full time working, will be eligible to apply for consultant posts as a cardiologist in 2018. That’s 12 years as a “junior” doctor.

However, if you have a heart attack and need someone to unblock your arteries (or your heart stops and you need a temporary pacemaker, etc etc), then I’ve been able to do that for the last 3 years – we’re not totally useless! There are probably less than 300 people in the UK (discounting the cardiology consultants) who have the same skills as me.

At the moment we do pay tax and NI on our full pay (basic + banding), it’s just not pensionable.

A typical 1A rota (50% banding, the most common banding in hospital specialties IME) will work around 1/5 of hours outside of the 7am-7pm Mon-Fri “normal working hours” at the moment. That’s around 10 hours per week that are anti-social currently.

My understanding is… (IANADr)

How long are Junior doctors likely to be stuck on the bottom band?

Basic salary bands currently increases with experience in the job – part of the changes being suggested is to stop doing this.

This seems like a good basic summary:

(source)

But there is a lot more fine print in here: http://www.nhsemployers.org/~/media/Employers/Documents/Pay%20and%20reward/Pay%20and%20Conditions%20Circular%20MD%2012015.pdf

Realistically what portion of anti-social hours will they typically have to work a week?

Entirely dependent on their role, their shifts, the hospital trust etc.

Overnight on-call shifts happen fairly regularly (once a month) for instance, and they are typically three or more days of 9pm till 10am, often over weekends.

Folk working in A&E will regularly have crappy shifts.
People specialising in dermatology less so.

i might have missed this one, but the training – this is 6ish years of uni, right?

Is this now 6 years of £9K fees? So are student doctors who started after 2012 going to be graduating with something like £90K worth of student loans? 😐

Is there any funding available?

This is in danger of getting back on track so

Pretty sure that most people would recognise that as two degrees. No?

Surely, at some point GrahamS, she MUST have been tempted to go for 3 😆

Someone mentioned vets earlier – a good friend is a vet. She doesn’t earn what I’d consider to be a decent wage, and definitely not when conditions are considered. My understanding is it’s another long game – get a partnership or the like before the money gets good.

Surely, at some point GrahamS, she MUST have been tempted to go for 3

Well strictly speaking it is three Bachelors – BSc Medicine then an MB ChB, which is a Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of… um… Churgery?!). But it is only two conferred degrees.

More importantly though she finally becomes a consultant next June after 15 odd years. 😀

And she takes a pay hit as a result 😕

Med students currently pay full £9k fees for the first 4 years. The final 1-2 years’ fees are paid by the NHS. There are no bursaries or payments available whilst at med school (unlike nursing degrees), apart from the usual hardship funds available to all students.

Med students currently pay full £9k fees for the first 4 years. The final 1-2 years’ fees are paid by the NHS. There are no bursaries or payments available whilst at med school (unlike nursing degrees), apart from the usual hardship funds available to all students.

so on that basis, if we assume fees of 36K, accommodation costs of 24K, living costs of 24K, but also that they get summer jobs to help…

the 2018 cohort onwards will be graduating with student debts of something like 70K.

Which means that if they earn less than £60,000ish, they won’t even be covering the interest on the loan. So even if they eventually earn something like £80K, they’ll be paying that extra 9% tax until their mid-50s when it’s written off.

Not a massive draw….

Most medical students won’t get summer jobs – typical terms are much longer than other courses (for my final 2 years I had 4 weeks off in summer and a week or two in autumn/Christmas/Easter). Lectures are usually M-F 9-5 as well, so the only time they can have a part time job is in the evenings. I didn’t have the time to work after third year and relied on the Bank of Mum and Dad for living expenses (only received a £1k loan per year from SAAS/SLC – I was lucky that my parents could afford to support me).

so on that basis, if we assume fees of 36K, accommodation costs of 24K, living costs of 24K, but also that they get summer jobs to help…

The 2018 cohort onward will be graduating with student debts of something like 70K.

It’s bad but not that bad.

I didn’t graduate that long ago and excluding tuition my debt was about £4.5k/year. I had a summer job but kept that separate as emergency and/or traveling money which never got spent. So that’s £4.5k for accommodation, food, booze, books (in roughly that order). So less than £20k in 4 years.

Don’t they earn something in the last two years? Most of the medics seemed to move into nicer houses once they’d finished the first 4. Is that not the ‘foundation’ years in GrahamS’ table? Going by that table it’s pretty much the same as engineering after graduating (although depending on the industry and sector you may/may not get paid overtime on that) if so.

I didn’t, and I don’t think things have changed in the last decade, although I’m happy to be corrected. It might just be that those students had to move because their flatmates had all finished their degrees and got a job by that point (plus it gets a bit tiring living in a scummy student flat when you’re in your mid twenties)

although I’m happy to be corrected.

Nope, no corrections.

TINAS: The foundation years are your first two years after graduating.

plus it gets a bit tiring living in a scummy student flat when you’re in your mid twenties

I did wonder if it was that :-p

TINAS: The foundation years are your first two years after graduating.

In that case it’s about 2 years behind the upper end of engineering as we start work after getting an MEng. Assuming you’d work across the table at about a 45deg angle (i.e. go up a band each year?).

But then a lot of engineering jobs don’t pay overtime or any sort of bonus for anti social hours.

And there isn’t a job in every city, to get that sort of money means living in/near London.

Oh, and “Foundation Years” in the table is post graduation (they’re usually the first doctors you see when you’re first admitted, the ones that take your blood, request your X-rays, make the first diagnosis, start treatment, refer you to specialists, and do your discharge paperwork).

In that case it’s about 2 years behind the upper end of engineering as we start work after getting an MEng.

Out of interest, what would the responsibilities of a new graduate in engineering be and what do you think the responsibilities of an F1 are?

Not an argument wither way, I’m genuinely curious. Whilst I have engineer in my job title I’m pretty sure I’m not who you’re referring to.

Realistically what portion of anti-social hours will they typically have to work a week?

My wife is currently in what is considered to be a ‘nice’ hospital to work in.

She does Monday to Friday normal hours, which is roughly 7:30am – 6:00pm.

Wednesdays are On-Call Start 7:30am – 10:30amish the next day. In theory she gets the afternoon off post on-call but rarely happens.

She then does 1 in 4 weekends Saturday 07:30am until Monday 10:30am again with the afternoon off, but that rarely happens.

Some hospitals on-call can be 1-3 weekends, and longer mid week on call commitment.

On-Call isnt sat at home watching TV waiting for a phone call. Its operating all day long, maybe until 1am in the morning. Finish operating get called to see sick patients, maybe get 3 hrs sleep, and then up for ward round, and the daily elective theatre lists.

As part of the working week she is supposed to get 1 free session (4 hrs) for admin/study. This rarely happens as there are extra theatre lists to do.

On a Friday afternoon she is expected to drive across the county up to 100 miles each way to attending formal ‘teaching sessions’ at her own cost.

She is then also currently revising for her final Royal College Consultant exams. This has lightened our bank account by £4k for the exam fee, plus books at £100 + per book, and just about any free time is taken up by revision.

It’s bad but not that bad.

I didn’t graduate that long ago and excluding tuition my debt was about £4.5k/year. I had a summer job but kept that separate as emergency and/or traveling money which never got spent. So that’s £4.5k for accommodation, food, booze, books (in roughly that order). So less than £20k in 4 years.

hmm, still sounds about right under the new loans…. (i must say that 4.5K for living costs seems v low these days, many students spend that on accommodation alone, but let’s use it anyway)…

and remember that student loans now accrue interest while you study at RPI + 3%

so… [calculator]

**** me, compound interest is a bitch! If RPI averages 2%, and you take 13.5K in loans for the first 4 yers, and then 4.5K for another 2 years, you’d graduate with a student debt of £77,044. Which of course will be accelerating away from you for at least a decade or so. 😕

the 2018 cohort onwards will be graduating with student debts of something like 70K.

Which means that if they earn less than £60,000ish, they won’t even be covering the interest on the loan.
Sorry I don’t really follow – what do you mean by won’t be covering the interest?