Merc have signed Bottas, only way Russell would get a seat is if Hamilton’s contract negotiations go bad. Merc want him, but now they have Russell as leverage over his salary demands. Hamilton wants to race next year, so a re-run of this year with him leading Bottas seems pretty likely.
Red Bull with Perez in the second seat to be runners-up again. Perez might push Verstappen, but it’s also possible he’ll find the car tricky to get on top of and end up like Albon.
Ferrari will be much improved. They have a new engine on the dyno and they should understand their aero problem. Sainz should be much more competitive than Vettel, so they should be able to compete with Renault and McLaren for third.
Renault look to be getting on top of their problems so Alonso should be able to battle with the Ferraris and Red Bulls for podium spots, but they aren’t going to worry Merc. Ocon seems to be the weakest of the drivers in the Renault/McLaren/Ferrari line ups, so that might make the difference.
McLaren somewhere in that battle for third to fifth. They will have a better engine and Ricciardo will help, but probably about the same as this year.
Racing Point will be less competitive. They will need to start developing their own car a bit more and I’m not convinced that Vettel is the right guy to lead a mid-field team. I can see him getting frustrated if the car isn’t competitive.
Alpha Tauri seventh. Gasly seems decent, but they will have a new driver who may cost them points.
Williams will probably be improved, but still last because the Ferrari engine should be much better, so Alpha Romeo and Haas eighth and ninth.