EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Apparently that’s not needed, reading from a dusty arcane text book at an expensive university apparently is a qualifier for running a modern country.

There has been an extraordinary shift in this debate. Before the vote, it was the Brexshiteers making crap up. Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it’s remainers who have taken over the BS role.

Quite. For a long time you appeared very much a lead remainer (which given your usual predilection to right wing guff was in itself extraordinary). You now seem to be in a race with Jamby for “who can shout loudest for Maybe to careen us off a cliff as quickly as possible”. Very extraordinary indeed.

Thank you for such a valuable post zokes – a step up

Nothing extraordinary at all. It’s equally clear where our best interests lay and what we have to do now that people have made an alternative choice. The answer is a little thing called perspective.

My pespective is that May has created a single point of failure in as much we need an EU trade deal that is not punitive. As discussed earlier in this thread trade deals with the US/Oz/NZ etc are not necessarily beneficial for UK business.

Indeed both sides need to create a win:win solution to a lose:lose problem.

They have their work cut out but that is what they are paid for

both sides need to create a win:win solution to a lose:lose problem

As you argued it would be bad to leave and better to remain have you now reversed your position and accepted it can be a win :win situation to leave?

Anyway I think you were lecturing remainers on extraordinary shifts of their position and BS …oh the irony.

I am not sure that any of the political **** wits running the exit strategy have ever actually been involved in running an actual business in the real world. [/I]

Probably why Hammond always has a face-palmed look 🙂

Good job no one talks about nationalisation or controlling the commanding heights anymore..,,

Good job no one talks about nationalisation or controlling the commanding heights anymore..,,

Even I, as one of the bearded geography teacher’s stronger advocates on here, think he’s completely taken leave of his senses. At the very least it should have been a free vote, if he didn’t, y’know, actually want to oppose the Trump fancier

In other news, I’ve been asked to go to the States to assist with the UK’s charm offensive on trade etc

As you seem to be involved to some extent, I assume you are a civil servant – so what’s the prevailing mood there? Interested.

They have their work cut out but that is what they are paid for

Yes, but unfortuantely their *ability* to do these things well is not the basis on which they are selected to do that job. Which is where we have a problem.

No, thm, many influential EU voices have made it clear that they need the UK to lose, irrespective of whether they also lose. A win-win (assuming it was even possible) would destroy the EU. So I think we’d better get used to the fact that whatever the final outcome is it’s going to be a lose-lose.

Incidentally, Abbott on the radio this morning did imply that the labour three line whip position could be changed if they don’t get their amendments through…

THM is being entirely consistent.
Consistent in supporting whoever is our current Conservative PM.

😆

THM, re win:win loose:loose.

A very simple question, is the EU an economic or a political project.

The answer defines the near future, it defines how both sides will approach negotiations.

Remember that however badly it goes it will be “their” fault.

Another simple question, are we leaving the EU for economic or political reasons.

The answer defines how “our side” will approach negotiations.

Or sentimental reasons?

I think it’s how the other side view why they’re is probably more important, and what they’ve to lose/win.

Cap – there are two processes going on. The public one and the real one. The rhetoric is simply to feed the ever hungry press (the public one) Meanwhile the real work is conducted well away from the public gaze. It was ever thus.

Kelvin. It would appear that you desire to (incorrectly) pigeon hole others is getting in the way of your understanding. There is an easy solution

Why is Abbot changing her view/labour policy?!? No answer needed.

Both. For us more economic. For the EU more of both obviously given that the folly of the Euro requires fiscal and political union. We were not part of that stupidity hence the assymetry in our positions.

Meanwhile the real work is conducted well away from the public gaze.

But do you trust this lot to do it competently?

Two labour whips 😯 and now 2 Labour MPs, both resigned are going to vote against Article 50.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jo-stevens-is-first-shadow-cabinet-member-to-quit-over-jeremy-corbyns-order-to-vote-for-brexit-a7549656.html

Could be an interesting vote…

Party Seats
Conservative 329
Labour 229
Scottish National Party 54
Liberal Democrat 9
Democratic Unionist Party 8
Independent 4
Sinn Fein 4
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 2
Green Party 1
Speaker 1
UK Independence Party 1
Vacant 2

Even I, as one of the bearded geography teacher’s stronger advocates on here, think he’s completely taken leave of his senses. At the very least it should have been a free vote, if he didn’t, y’know, actually want to oppose the Trump fancier

Pretty much sums up my feelings on the matter. He’s utterly **** it as far as I’m concerned.

Again the conversation is far to high up the food chain, the reality is that SME business can not survive more than a few months if the exit strategy has a “bathtub” curve. Remember most agricultural enterprise and lots of manufacturing are SME and many other SME businesses feed off them . The knock on effect of this will be substantial.

But do you trust this lot to do it competently?

No idea. No one has done this before.

1. The Three Brexshiteers – no
2. May – reserving judgement, but is surprising on the upside so far (read that how you will Kelvin!)
3. Barnier – see 2
4. Merkel – better than 2 and 3, she is Frau Compromise after all
5. Verhofstadt – no
6. The UK civil servants, advisors, negotiators – probably, but have no basis on which to judge

Enjoying in a sick kind of way reading Aaron Banks’ book. 20% done so far.

I do think that May is actually showing herself to be a good politician, but that’s not something I personally admire in anyone.

Although as was once said to me about Maxwell (by someone who worked for him). He was a bastard, but at least he was OUR bastard.

way to early to say whether she is or she is not

Has been helped massively by the absence of an opposition party of any note

Molgrips – I am not a civil servant though I bump into quite a few. Those who have expressed a view to me are few and far between.
I am not involved in Brexit, and only passingly involved in the recovery operation.

About the only sane politician out of the lot of them, though I hold out hope that some of the civil servants have a clue what they’re doing and retain sufficient power to prevent the children making a complete mess of it.

And another unintended consequence. We are members of Euratom because of our membership of the EU. Leave the EU and we leave this. Without being in euratom all work on new nuclear power stations will have to stop. so either we will have to have new agreements with euratom, some transitional arrangements in place or Hinkley is further delayed

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-euratom-idUSKBN15B15V

I always thought May a good politician but she is proving me wrong continually. Her handling of europe is so poor its laughable. Its almost as if she wants us to fail in leaving so we end up staying. She has got so many things so wrong its no longer funny

zokes – Still not a customer
There has been an extraordinary shift in this debate. Before the vote, it was the Brexshiteers making crap up. Now the whole thing has flipped on its head and it’s remainers who have taken over the BS role.
Quite. For a long time you appeared very much a lead remainer (which given your usual predilection to right wing guff was in itself extraordinary). You now seem to be in a race with Jamby for “who can shout loudest for Maybe to careen us off a cliff as quickly as possible”. Very extraordinary indeed.

I disagree lots with thm, but there’s no contradiction in his stance. He’s just for making the best of a shite situation. something the hysterical left are having no input on whatsoever.

Where on earth did you get that idea? Though for some definitions of “good” the evidence suggests she’s an excellent one – or at least good enough to be in the right place to make the most of an opportunity – I can’t remember her ever being particularly competent and I’m not sure her track record at achieving things is that brilliant. I’m not just commenting with the benefit of hindsight, have never rated her.

The best of a shite situation is to U turn. Second referendum. Anything to stop it. There is no “making the best” of leaving the EU. Its a complete disaster on all accounts with no possible upside

I thought she had political sense. Ie whilst doing things I disagreed with at least they had some coherent logic behind them and she took consistent positions and stuck to them. I have been proved wrong however.

tjagain – Member
The best of a shite situation is to U turn. Second referendum. Anything to stop it. There is no “making the best” of leaving the EU. Its a complete disaster on all accounts with no possible upside

lets bring this back to reality though. you know the reality were the majority of politicians are going to vote it through. you can either spit the dummy or just get on with it(i agree it’s lunacy, and “democracy” is getting taken too literally, but hey ho that’s were we are.). Not really any other choices.

Admittedly there is some consistent logic. She does whatever she thinks is best for TM, which clearly involves shifting position when necessary.

Perhaps – but that is because they are spineless idiots by and large. Only 100 mps support out. the best hope now is an amendment for a second referendum is put in and passed. Or of course Scotland goes independent then I’m allright jack.

Its almost as if she wants us to fail in leaving so we end up staying

If only I could be sure that was the plan.

No comment on this from the anti EU lot or the pro nukes lot?

Brexit will delay new British nuclear power stations, warn experts

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/27/uk-exit-eu-atomic-treaty-brexit-euratom-hinkley-point-c

As an electric type (for those of you with kids into Pokemon) consider the interconnectors too.
A fair number of people wondering about how they will operate going forward and what that will do to electricity prices. Maybe nothing, maybe something.

We made 1.7m cars last year (all cars built in the last quarter were produced at a loss due to the pounds decline)

oldman can you help me out with this ? Import raw materials add value via local labour and facilities. BTW large manufactruers hedge (ie fix and/or limit downside) of currency rates. Bit like airlines do with the oil price/fuel cost. Any raw materials imported at a high cost due to fx are equally matched by that part leaving for export with the rest of the costs (labour etc) lower. Now cars made here and sold locally are less profitable and cars made abroad and exported here are much less profitable. I very much doubt manufacturers are selling cars produced in Q4 at a loss, happy to see your justification. Genuine question.

In other news Merkel has supposedly made a number of approaches to sugget she visits Washington. Trump’s team have not even replied, thus likely first meeting at G7 in May or G20 in July which Germany are hosting. Far from calming his rhetoric on Germany post his victory he reiterated his view on the folly of Germany accepting 1m people about whom they knew very little. The pressure is mounting.