EU Referendum – are you in or out?

Chewkw I am politically a centrist socialist I suppose? And have little time for extreme right or left as in practical terms the extremes always abuse one section of society or another – I believe that politics is an extension of society and that includes business (Nissan for examle) that supports the well being of a community by offering well paid and secure employment – for that community to vote for the potential degradation of that commitment is odd and indicates that some element of disinformation has occurred, I would bet my house on Sunderland Ship Builders NOT coming back to life post Brexit to pick up the slack. As the old saying goes you don’t realise what you have until it’s gone. It may take 10 years for the full impact of withdrawl by this type of business but it will happen as the bottom line is key to most organisations.

mikewsmith – Member
The leave vote conned them, they are now going to find out what that means. Unfortunately for an area that has suffered so much it’s going to be another set back.

61% of the people voted to leave so are so easily misled?

Remind us again which bit of government you work for?
You can’t operate a business like that, if you invest millions today then make a loss you could forsee tomorrow your an idiot.

Part time peanut munching bureaucrat I am.

Absolutely, with their invested millions they should not simply threaten a nation before even knowing exactly what the Govt/nation might do for them. Aren’t they jumping the gun?

61%

I’m sure you mean 51%?

oldmanmtb – Member
Chewkw I am politically a centrist socialist I suppose? And have little time for extreme right or left as in practical terms the extremes always abuse one section of society or another –

I have no problem with all that but Tories are definitely Not extreme. Annoying sometime yes but not extreme.

I believe that politics is an extension of society and that includes business (Nissan for examle) that supports the well being of a community by offering well paid and secure employment

Nissan sell rather well in the UK (not in the Far East or South East Asia) with all the supports for their brand as they wish from the British consumers. Their sales have increased nicely so why are they threatening the nation? If this is not political I don’t know what is.

Nissan half year 2015 figures[/url]

– for that community to vote for the potential degradation of that commitment is odd and indicates that some element of disinformation has occurred, I would bet my house on Sunderland Ship Builders NOT coming back to life post Brexit to pick up the slack.

Disinformation? Who have more information other than the people who work there together with the published information? Perhaps, the disinformation might come from the company themselves. Look at the link above or are they hiding something?

The shipbuilding industry disappeared under the EU watch is it not? In fact most EU shipbuilding industry disappeared under EU watch and only the high end luxury ships still being built in Denmark. How long before they too disappear let’s see.

As the old saying goes you don’t realise what you have until it’s gone. It may take 10 years for the full impact of withdrawl by this type of business but it will happen as the bottom line is key to most organisations.

I am sure something will replace them as 10 years is a “long” time.

mrlebowski – Member

61%

I’m sure you mean 51%? [/quote]I was referring to Sunderland vote – 61%

Nissan half year 2015 figures

Yep they sell a fair bit to the UK market – but that Sunderland plant punts out over half a million cars a year, which they also want to sell to Europe.

They can do that cheaper if they are not paying tarrifs on the incoming raw materials or outgoing cars.

I was referring to Sunderland vote – 61%

Speaking of votes:

From this story in the Sunderland Echo last Friday.

The Nissan plant at Sunderland employs 7,000 people and produces 1 in every 3 cars the UK manufactures.

Asked at the Paris Motor Show what factors the company would consider in deciding where to build any future model, company boss Carlos Ghosn told said: “If I need to make an investment in the next few months and I can’t wait until the end of Brexit, then I have to make a deal with the UK government.

“You can have commitments of compensation in case you have something negative. If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for carmakers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation.”

His remarks indicate a growing concern among global carmakers that Britain could be heading towards a so-called ‘hard Brexit’, which would leave them paying tariffs to export UK-assembled cars to EU markets.

Mr Ghosn told reporters that the Sunderland plant would lose competitiveness if Britain was left dealing with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules – rather than as part of the Single Market – which would effectively add 10% to the cost of a UK-built model.

The plant’s future could “without any doubt” be harmed unless there was a way to overcome the extra cost, he added.

— Chronicle, 29th Sep 2016

I’m sure chewkw will say “Ah see.. asking for a favour” but why would Nissan, a French-owned company, keep a major manufacturing plant here and suffer a 10% hit in costs when they could move it elsewhere in Europe, where they might also benefit from lower wage costs?

Renault/Nissan and the other car producers. Fall in £ equal to or greater than WTO tariff on cars (rough calc) so in € terms the UK is a cheaper place to produce than Europe as it stands.

Also as noted on Sky today the car manufacturers told us not joining the € would negatively impact investment. That turned out to be total bollix. Who’d have thoight it ?

Mid Jan for A50 is the rumour.

Renault/Nissan and the other car producers. Fall in £ equal to or greater than WTO tariff on cars (rough calc) so in € terms the UK is a cheaper place to produce than Europe as it stands.

So they might hang on for a bit while our economy is messed up, but I keep hearing that we have a glorious bright economic future ahead of us, so will they still be here when the pound is flying high and the Euro has tanked?

Renault/Nissan and the other car producers. Fall in £ equal to or greater than WTO tariff on cars (rough calc) so in € terms the UK is a cheaper place to produce than Europe as it stands.

So the only upside is that the pound will fall making imports to the UK more expensive driving up inflation etc. If the Euro falls in parallel to the pound then the benifit of the pound fall is a double loss especially if both fall against the USD.

GrahamS – Member
From this story in the Sunderland Echo last Friday.

What is the sample size of that survey?
Who are the sample population?
Is the survey representative?
How many questions asked? One?

GrahamS – Member
The Nissan plant at Sunderland employs 7,000 people and produces 1 in every 3 cars the UK manufactures.

They are doing/selling well.
They produces 1 in 3 cars the UK manufactures.
They fear export tariff … to where? EU?

Top 10 Nissan Markets

Nissan Global

Country Total Sales Market Share
U.S. 1,484,918 8.5%
China* 1,250,073 5.3%
Japan 589,046 11.7%
Mexico 348,941 25.8%
UK 169,247 5.6%
Canada 129,976 6.8%
Russia 128,713 8.0%
France 77,200 3.6%
Germany 74,596 2.2%
United Arab Emirates 66,839 15.9%

GrahamS – Member
From this story in the Sunderland Echo last Friday.

What is the sample size of that survey?
Who are the sample population?
Is the survey representative?
How many questions asked? One?

GrahamS – Member
” … If there are tax barriers being established on cars, you have to have a commitment for carmakers who export to Europe that there is some kind of compensation.”

Mr Ghosn told reporters that the Sunderland plant would lose competitiveness if Britain was left dealing with the EU under World Trade Organisation rules – rather than as part of the Single Market – which would effectively add 10% to the cost of a UK-built model.

They fear export tariff … to where? EU?

Nissan Global – Top 10 Nissan Markets

Country — Total Sales — Market Share
U.S. — 1,484,918 —- 8.5%
China* — 1,250,073 —- 5.3%
Japan — 589,046 —— 11.7%
Mexico — 348,941 —— 25.8%
UK — 169,247 —— 5.6%
Canada — 129,976 —— 6.8%
Russia — 128,713 —— 8.0%
France — 77,200 ——- 3.6%
Germany — 74,596 ——- 2.2%
UAE — 66,839 ——- 15.9%

Political? You decide.

Did anyone say they feared an export tarrif?

France 77,200 3.6%
Germany 74,596 2.2%

So nearly as many cars to 2 EU countries as the UK buys

France 607,173 26.4%
Brazil 181,504 7.3%
Germany 177,787 5.2%
Turkey 162,175 16.8%
Spain 156,108 13.1%
Italy 154,730 9.1%
United Kingdom 128,269 4.3%
Russia 120,411 7.5%
Algeria 90,182 35.6%
Belgium+Luxembourg 82,374 13.3%

The renault figures are more interesting though – so if you were Nissan with a Strategic Partnership and had to decide where a new model was build which would you pic? One with 100% free movement of goods and people or one without? For the UK to compete it would need to be significantly cheaper.

They fear export tariff … to where? EU?

The UK will start from square 1 post Brexit with no deals with any country in the world. The EU has many deals already in existance that the UK currently takes advantage of.
From a business perspective the UK represents risk, the EU more certainty.

People are not talking about companies upping and leaving but more a choice about where a new model is made. If a model is sent to another factory part of the UK plant will die off or not be reused. That impacts on the supply chain etc and makes it harder to get the next new model.

What is the sample size of that survey?
Who are the sample population?
Is the survey representative?
How many questions asked? One?

1) Says on it, 5527 votes.
2) Readers of the Sunderland Echo?
3) I’d imagine it is representative of the thoughts of people reading that story in the Sunderland Echo who decided to click on the online poll.
4) Yep one, same as the referendum. Not really enough for a proper answer is it?

They are doing/selling well.

Yes they must have rallied impressively given that just 3 hours ago you were saying they were “a brand on the way out” and you didn’t expect the to survive. :lol:

They fear export tariff … to where? EU?

Yes, the EU.

77.3% of cars built in the UK are for export.
And 57.5% of all UK car exports go to Europe.[/url]

mikewsmith – Member

France 77,200 3.6%
Germany 74,596 2.2%
So nearly as many cars to 2 EU countries as the UK buys[/quote] Nearly. Just nearly and that is two EU countries combined yet they are still less than UK.

The renault figures are more interesting though – so if you were Nissan with a Strategic Partnership and had to decide where a new model was build which would you pic

Renault is not built in Sunderland so no impact apart from political. We are talking about Nissan brand. Renault main market is in EU so that’s that.

The UK will start from square 1 post Brexit with no deals with any country in the world.

There is always the first step in everything so why so concern?

People are not talking about companies upping and leaving but more a choice about where a new model is made. If a model is sent to another factory part of the UK plant will die off or not be reused. That impacts on the supply chain etc and makes it harder to get the next new model.

New model? Isn’t the Sunderland plant the flagship high technology considered the best in Europe? So they cannot make the next model? I sense someone playing politics here.

GrahamS – Member

What is the sample size of that survey?
Who are the sample population?
Is the survey representative?
How many questions asked? One?

[/quote]

1) Says on it, 5527 votes.

Meaningless I can even vote if I want from Newcastle.

2) Readers of the Sunderland Echo?

Nobody knows. Do they?
I can read newspaper all over the world.

3) I’d imagine it is representative of the thoughts of people reading that story in the Sunderland Echo who decided to click on the online poll.

Meaningless because there is no guarantee of a way to prevent someone rigging the survey. You kidding? Online poll? Even me mate John and Dave can vote from London.

4) Yep one, same as the referendum. Not really enough for a proper answer is it?

You got that right.

Yes they must have rallied impressively given that just 3 hours ago you were saying they were “a brand on the way out” and you didn’t expect the to survive.

Impressive for Nissan themselves but by comparison to other Japanese car brands they are pale in comparison. We laugh at you in the Far East for driving a Nissan unless it is a GTR. I hardly see Nissan in South East Asia. Hardly a Japanese car that worth shouting by comparison to other Japanese car brands.

Yes, the EU.
77.3% of cars built in the UK are for export.

They will continue to export from UK regardless because of their investments.

And 57.5% of all UK car exports go to Europe.

What percentage is that for Nissan? That is not even Nissan’s number.
That is the % of the entire UK car industry and most other manufactures do not even start to politicise like Nissan. Nissan is playing politics because of their Renault/French master.

So they sell more in Europe than the UK. That was easy the market within the EU is bigger than the one in the UK. Always good when people bring the facts the break their argument.

Why the concearn about going BACK to a point that we have spent decade moving forward from. The UK has trade deals that are in place, after A50 there will be no deals apart from what is in place as part of the A50 negotiations (the ones that people are trying to rush and dump everything during).
So yes the UK will be at a disadvantage for the period post A50/Brexit.
If I wanted to make cars and ship them out and had a choice it would be from the EU as the UK market is SMALLER For the future look at things like the Renault Traffic an that is the same as the Nissan one apart from a few bits, could make both in 1 factory and just ship the badges over.

Nissan is playing politics because of their Renault/French master.

Partnership not master. They are not playing games they are running a massive company that has to work with and despite the actions of governments around the world and will in the end do what is best for them.

A few facts:

80% of Nissan Sunderland’s annual 500’000 build goes to the EU.

Nissan and Renault are an alliance, they each hold shares in the other.

All future models will be common platform. Juke/Captur. Micra/Clio. Qashqai/Kadja.

Renault have a lot of spare capacity.

Carlos Ghosn is ruthless, even closing Nissan plants in their own home country when he first took over.

There’s nothing political about saying 10% on the cost of your product will make it uncompetitive.

He’s re-iterating exactly what was said pre-referendum, the majority of large UK based businesses predicted Brexit would be ‘a very bad thing for business’. You can’t cry foul if that turns out to be the case and they don’t play along with the madness.

Philip Hammond on R4 now, saying that foreign investment is slowing due to Brexit.

Is there anyway of blocking Chewkw’s cut and paste posts? It’s just meaningless gibberish.

There is an applet someone has written it’s available free but I don’t have a link, to be honest I just scroll past his/her posts.

Hammond on R4 was very interesting, what he said, what he implied and what he didn’t say. Clearly a divided government.

I doubt the sound bites will do justice to the interview – I’d listen to the original.

Clearly a divided government.

Given their lack of leadership, this is Labour’s only hope. Will the Tories self-destruct? Given the characters of the mad three, quite possible. So Labour just need to hide Corbyn away for a while.

THM – you’ve probably guessed that I self identify as centre left and other than starting dubious wars thought the Blair-Brown years were ok overall (bit more regulation of banks might have been good, but hindsight etc) but I keep forgetting that there is an opposition at the moment. They do seems to be reliving the Foot -v- Thatcher years.

Is there anyway of blocking Chewkw’s cut and paste posts? It’s just meaningless gibberish.

depends on your brower

80% of Nissan Sunderland’s annual 500’000 build goes to the EU.

Thank you mdavids – that was the detailed figure my tired eyes couldn’t find last night.

I’m assuming most if not all of the remaining 100,000 stays in the UK – given that they have 169,247 annual sales here?

Facing a potential 10% WTO tariff on 80% of their output I can see why they might be tempted to move production elsewhere.

oldnpastit – Member

Philip Hammond on R4 now, saying that foreign investment is slowing due to Brexit.

Bloody Remoaners

And the low £ doesn’t help as much as one (Jamba this is your point here) might think as components are manufactured outside the UK and therefore the efficiency gain on exporting from a devalued currency area is lost to some extent on the imports to a devalued currency area.

Nissan are pretty good at sums and very economically ruthless.

There’s plenty of scope for the government to mitigate the potential added cost of tariffs – we also shouldn’t overlook that the Sunderland plant has a few unique qualities:

– Was (possibly still is) the most productive car plant in the world
– Configured to build several different models of car on the same line at the same time (lower Opex and avoidance of Capex)
– Flexible labour force (compared to Renault factories) and mature supply chain

In terms of the help the Government can provide there’s quite a lot that would be attractive to Carlos Ghosn:

– extension of patent box principles so that platforms researched and developed and then made in the UK qualify for significant extra tax relief (this is something the EU is trying to stop the UK doing at the moment because it’s helped us to increase foreign investment in strategic industries)
– Rebate on Business Rates (not possible under current EU roles but absolutely possible under our own rules)
– Acceleration of the existing initiatives that have already significantly improved the depth of the automotive supply chain in the UK. So more parts designed, developed and made here and at lower cost than imported components).

Consumer behaviour may also change if we get into “tariffs”. I actually bought a Qashqai a few years back specifically because it was a good car and also made here – for me it was a choice of 2 cars one of which directly created jobs here… a no brainer. Faced with the choice of other models produced from within the EU and “punishment” tariffs from the EU there’s the possibility British consumers may buy more home produced cars thus helping to mitigate any drop in export sales.

So 2 of the 3 options involve subsidising what within the eu is a profitable business, another great example of how brexit is awesome

That is what the Nissan boss is asking. He wants a good deal.

Just5 that is a good post, and makes some rare Brexit positives.

However, most of those benefits seem to be tax-rebate based, which if used more widely would result in a loss to the exchequer surely?

Faced with the choice of other models produced from within the EU and “punishment” tariffs from the EU there’s the possibility British consumers may buy more home produced cars thus helping to mitigate any drop in export sales.

Yes but – for that to have an effect, factories would be having to make cars for just the UK market. And whilst we buy a lot of cars we don’t buy as many as the rest of the EU.

But then again – I remember hearing about the wholesale cost of cars being much higher here than in the rest of the EU. So in effect the rich countries are subsidising the poor ones – you’re paying a larger share of the car companies’ profits than people in say Spain.

If the UK wasn’t having to subsidise that then perhaps cars could become cheaper.

you’re paying a larger share of the car companies’ profits than people in say Spain.
If the UK wasn’t having to subsidise that then perhaps cars could become cheaper

As a company isn’t a political union they will continue to charge what they want in different markets to make sure their business is solvent.

Is there anyway of blocking Chewkw’s cut and paste posts? It’s just meaningless gibberish.

Why don’t you try continually insulting him, you appear to believe that’s effective.

Corbyn may have been next to useless during the ref

Kimbers Corbyn’s cintribution to the Referendum was very far from useless from a Leave perspective. In many respects he was true to his long held anti-EU beliefs

Car exports today are more competitively priced ie cheaper including any WTO tariffs today prior to Brexit vote.

If Nissan want to build the Qasquai elsewhere that’s up to them. Ford closed the Transit factory in Southampton and moved it to Turkey.

Brits love cars and changing them regularly, we have a very valuable domestic market.

If Nissan want to build the Qasquai elsewhere that’s up to them.

Are you saying that it’s not important?

Car exports today are more competitively priced ie cheaper including any WTO tariffs today prior to Brexit vote.

Assuming this is based on pound drop? Which has works until you need more steel and aluminium to make more cars which pushes up the raw material and component costs, even a drop in the pound won’t make British labour competitive with some other places.

Brits love cars and changing them regularly, we have a very valuable domestic market

But a much smaller one than the rest of the eu. So if brits keep buying cars and cars are made elsewhere then the profit and benefits of thousands of jobs are taken elsewhere.

Why don’t you try continually insulting him, you appear to believe that’s effective.

Ooh you really are sore about the Jambaliar bit arent you? You come up with the proof and I will happily apologise to you. You have been asked to provide proof but instead of doing so come up with the nonsense above. Come on you are better than that.

In terms of the help the Government can provide there’s quite a lot that would be attractive to Carlos Ghosn

Yep, I suspect that’s the sort of thing he is asking for.
I’m sure from a business perspective they’d rather avoid the expense (and potential bad PR) of shifting production facilities elsewhere, but they’ll need a good reason to stay if the use of WTO tariffs mean the economics have changed.

If Nissan want to build the Qasquai elsewhere that’s up to them.

Pretty dismissive given there are 7,000 jobs on the line in an area that isn’t exactly booming to start with.

You’d happily wave off one third of the UK’s car manufacturing?

Flexible labour force (compared to Renault factories)

And don’t underestimate how much easier it is to get rid of staff in the UK vs France/Belgium etc, plus ‘politically’ you can just blame Brexit even if the numbers don’t (fully) add up.

If Nissan want to build the Qasquai elsewhere that’s up to them.

So a price worth paying for Brexit then?

As long as you’re not one of the 7000 direct or 30000 indirect employees, or you don’t live in the North East so won’t be affected by the massive reduction in money that pours in due to Nissan.

I’m sure they can console themselves with all the positive aspects of Brexit, like erm???

@Nipper just saw your question about the Human Rights Act. We will have our own Human Rights Acts overseen by our court system. As we are a founding member and major supporter of the International Criminal Court if people think we’ve done something wrong and the UK courts have not found in their favour they can take action against us there.

As Theresa and other’s said yesterday all existing employment protection will remain in place whilst she is PM. As British laws will be made by British Parliament a future PM could change them as they and Parliament wish

The scaremongering about Human Rights and Employment Laws where just that, Referendum scaremongering.

As for May having been influenced by Fox etc’s hard-Brexit I suggest the reality is she and the Government have looked at all the various options and have come to the conclusion that their approach is the bst way forward. Obviously I approve wholeheartedly of that as its the approach I favoured and proposed here although I admit I thought they’d fudge it a bit but apparently not :)