Election Campaign

Well they need to be bloody careful. Because if large parts of the country were being offered the same choice the Scots presently have in front of them – A credible, more left-leaning, truly socially democratic alternative to the 2 party cabal, then the labour party could also be finding itself as dead in the water as they are in central Glasgow, in their other previous ‘heartlands’ too!

There was a poll recently which I can’t find right now, which showed that if the SNP were running candidates in the rest of the UK too then they’d win the North and London, and be in with a fighting chance of Nicola Sturgeon being the next PM.

The problem isn’t that the SNP are so strong, it’s that Labour are so pathetically feart.

It makes perfect sense to have EVEL given the devolved power the Scots asked for and got. I have been paying attention and at no time have I heard anyone say the SNP are not legitimate or do not have a right to sit at Westminster.

Now help me out on the history of decimating the Northern industries. Coal is very much yesterdays fuel with ecological campaigners worldwide calling for it to be phased out. Scargill tried to hold the country to ransom by switching off the lights. I’m old enough to remember the power cuts caused by miners strikes, not surprisingly subsequent governments made sure that would never happen again by diversifying into oil. Scargill picked a fight using the lives of his members as a weapon and lost, lost heavily.

I could post up a picture of the taxi with the concrete block through the windscreen.

I see how you got some good north/south divide stuff in the bussed in police on overtime there, well done.

The steel industry just moved to lower cost producers along with the ship building, as you say economic forces.

Binners we all know the Northern cities are strong Labour areas as is Central London (due to high levels of social housing and private houses being owned by foreigners not entitled to vote and commuters living outside the central areas) but support for the Conservatives is pretty much national, there are plenty in the North voting Tory. From 2010

support for the Conservatives is pretty much national

I think you forgot to look at Scotland there where they have more Pandas than Tories.

To be fair to our blue friend, given that binners was talking about England’s North, I think it’s fair to assume he meant national to mean England.

Now help me out on the history of decimating the Northern industries. Coal is very much yesterdays fuel with ecological campaigners worldwide calling for it to be phased out. Scargill tried to hold the country to ransom by switching off the lights.

At the risk of sounding repetitive, it isn’t what happened as a result of global economic forces. I get that. Its the brutal manner in which it was done. A callous an uncaring government, who, in the context of what we’re discussing at the moment, are meant to representative of the WHOLE country, just sat back and watched the entire economies of some northern regions absolutely decimated, while they sat back and did absolutely nothing. In fact, it looked like many of the Tory front bench were really really enjoying their ‘vengeance’ on the uppity unionised working classes, who’d brought down the last Tory government.

That, once again, is why they’re so hated up here. It’ll never be forgotten. And certainly never forgiven.

To quote the lady, the resulting mass unemployment, and grinding poverty was ‘a price worth paying’. Well that wasn’t an opinion broadly shared by those of us paying that price, believe me!

I see how you got some good north/south divide stuff in the bussed in police on overtime there, well done.

I’m merely stating facts

Polls not looking too good for Miliband.

This is the worst prediction for labour the guardian’s election model has given so far. Perhaps most worrying for us left-leaning folk is that according to this labour and the SNP will not hold a majority. Also the Mori poll has swung towards the tories.

Is it just me or has the labour campaign lost a bit of momentum? Seems like when I turn the news on all I see is Cameron in shirts-sleeves-rolled-up-ranting-like-he-gives-a-shit mode and a meek Miliband trying to look presidential behind his lecturn. It’d be a sad but entirely predictable turn of events if labour lose it due to a lack of passion/fight.

Not sure why you are saying that as if it is doom the doom is spread around equally as there is no way that The tories can form a majority

An anti-Tory bloc (Lab, SNP, SDLP, PC, Green) would vote down a Conservative government and Even with support from the DUP and Ukip, the current Con/LD coalition could not form a government

Will be interesting to see what happens afterwards especially if Clegg is a goner.

Interesting graphics. The telling thing for me really is that Labour have really screwed up in Scotland and that’s why we’ll have a hung parliament.

Not sure why you are saying that as there is no way that The tories can form a majority

True but it’s a lot closer than it was a week ago which had labour+SNP well over the 326 threshold without having to worry about support from the other parties.

And the labour parties attitude isn’t much better either. Its equal guilty of refusing to recognise the legitimacy of the SNP.

Don’t think Labour are saying SNP MPs are illegitimate, Labour just don’t want to work with them for many political reasons and policy differences such as bitterness over 1979, Scottish independence and Trident.

There was an interesting poll a few days ago stating that the Tories had significantly lead with people over 40. Considering they tend to vote but aren’t prolific on social media, are we seeing an under reporting of the Tory support and an over reporting of the rest. Hard to tell until Friday next week I guess.

One thing I honestly don’t get: Why are Labour so in love with Trident? the Tories I can understand, but Labour?

I reckon there’ll be a (hopefully only small) improvement in Tory voting come the day as people decide to either stick with what they know or don’t vote how they claim to the polls (because many won’t admit that they’re going to vote Tory).

Ben – Trident would provide an awful lot of jobs in solid labour voting constituencies

As for the polls.The Tory’s always do better than the polls suggest. As people who possess any self-awareness, won’t admit to voting Tory, as they know how decent human beings generally tend to interpret that. 😉

Why are Labour so in love with Trident?

I think it’s probably more accurate to say that they’re more in love with being in power than they are with Trident. I suspect they’d love to get rid of it if they thought it wouldn’t lose them the election. 1983 and the unilateral disarmament policy casts a long shadow.

Why are Labour so in love with Trident?

There are very clearly two ways of looking at Trident. Both are good points. It’s nothing like as black and white as SNP make out.

Treating things as black and white is terribly detrimental to the political debate.

I think you forgot to look at Scotland there where they have more Pandas than Tories.

Its all well and good talking up the SNP’s power in the upcoming election, but correct me if I’m wrong, but they represent a number, roughly half the size of Birmingham? Add that to the fact that they don’t want a Great Britain and you’ve got a situation whereby they have talked themselves out of having any credibility amongst the rest of the 95% of the population.

SNP’s policy is on Trident is a mess anyway IMO. They are perfectly happy for the Yanks, French or whoever to park nuclear subs in Faslane but not our own!

Then when pressed NS indirectly admitted they want to double spend the money saved, as she said they would us it for schools and NHS, and then in next breath that the money should go to improving the conventional forces. So which is it?

jambalaya – Member
Binners we all know the Northern cities are strong Labour areas as is Central London (due to high levels of social housing and private houses being owned by foreigners not entitled to vote and commuters living outside the central areas) but support for the Conservatives is pretty much national, there are plenty in the North voting Tory. From 2010

Same data, different projection:

Ben – Trident would provide an awful lot of jobs in solid labour voting constituencies

If that’s the argument, then it’s a rubbish argument. You could give every worker £100,000 a year to stay home and do the gardening, and still only spend a fraction of what Trident will cost.

Then when pressed NS indirectly admitted they want to double spend the money saved, as she said they would us it for schools and NHS, and then in next breath that the money should go to improving the conventional forces. So which is it?

Without detailed costings we can’t say, but the manifesto seeks to fill “capability gaps”, mentioning more boats, and restore the Scottish Regiments. So some Trident savings are likely to be applied to that.

they have talked themselves out of having any credibility amongst the rest of the 95% of the population

Don’t be silly. I’m certain that the animosity shown towards the SNP from the tories/south is not shared by the vast majority of labour supporting northerners who wish the labour party was a bit/lot more to the left than it currently is. If the SNP fielded candidates in the north of England they’d probably win most of the seats from labour.

bencooper – Member
One thing I honestly don’t get: Why are Labour so in love with Trident? the Tories I can understand, but Labour?

A complex answer. In the end a lot of people now think that the MAD policy actually worked, also you don’t want to be subject to nuclear blackmail. Having Trident we can use it as a bargaining chip to move towards multilateral disarmanment, much better to have skin in the game. It is also hard to predict future threats in the mid 00s were we really expecting the Arab spring to occur. Military capabilities have a very long lead time. If we scrapped the subs and infrastructure next year then the following year a threat arose and we decided we needed the capability again it would take about 20 years to build it.

The economic argument isn’t as strong as people might think because we could still keep the submarines and covert them to SSGNs something that would serve us very well. However there would still be job losses in Faslane as we wouldn’t need weapons handling and storage facilities there.

dazh – Member
Polls not looking too good for Miliband.

This is the worst prediction for labour the guardian’s election model has given so far. Perhaps most worrying for us left-leaning folk is that according to this labour and the SNP will not hold a majority. Also the Mori poll has swung towards the tories.

Is it just me or has the labour campaign lost a bit of momentum? Seems like when I turn the news on all I see is Cameron in shirts-sleeves-rolled-up-ranting-like-he-gives-a-shit mode and a meek Miliband trying to look presidential behind his lecturn. It’d be a sad but entirely predictable turn of events if Labour lose it due to a lack of passion/fight.

Many political commentators have described DC’s sudden change in demeanor as a sign of desperation. On polling, firstly you can’t look at any single poll you have to look at the trends in the polls, secondly the overall numbers don’t show the full picture for example a 2% swing in the UK poll for Labour could mean the difference of Labour getting 0 seats in Scotland or 40 seats, thirdly you have to see what is happening in the key battleground seats in England, fourthly this election is unprecedented so projection models are pretty much useless due to the lack of past data and the complexity of this election.

On polling, firstly you can’t look at any single poll you have to look at the trends in the polls

Isn’t that what the guardian’s election model does? It claims to use all published local and national polls. I understand your eagerness to look for positives, but you have to admit there’s a definite trend towards the tories.

As for Cameron’s desperation, I’m not sure the public view it like that. All they see is passion and enthusiasm, something that Miliband struggles to put across. At the end of the day people like a fighter.

You could give every worker £100,000 a year to stay home and do the gardening, and still only spend a fraction of what Trident will cost.

How much of this Trident money stays in the UK?

Ben on Trident – I agree with the jobs, ongoing plus a lot of that money is spent on construction and technology jobs. I would add that I think behind the scenes (eg with NATO) there are lots of commitments and possibly binding agreements signed that we will retain an “independent” deterrent.

CaptJohn appreciate that’s a projection and also a seat based rather than land area based map

Binners I did get the point about economics and how the north was treated – I guess if you have a huge and at times violent strike plus rock solid labour consituencies you shouldn;t be totally surprised if the conservatives apprently don’t give a f

Labour just don’t want to work with them for many political reasons and policy differences such as bitterness over 1979, Scottish independence and Trident.

I’m not convinced the anti-SNP stance taken by Labour so far is based on anything other than them wanting to keep their chances open to win more seats in Scotland based on the old “it’s us or the Tories” argument.

When push comes to shove then if Labour need to do a deal with the SNP to form a parliament then I’m sure they will. They can get around their previous arguments by trading off delaying a decision on Trident replacement against an agreement that the SNP won’t push for another referendum with 5 years.

One thing I honestly don’t get: Why are Labour so in love with Trident? the Tories I can understand, but Labour?

The SNP are have occupied the position left vacant when Labour turned into Tories. The two main political parties are like Walker’s Crisps – the colours dont mean what they used to.

Jim Sillars being quoted as saying the first line of the 2016 SNP manifesto for Holyrood will be another independence referendum (which is basically what I posted a few pages back 😉 )

Also the Lib Dems (Danny Alexander) clearly think they are most likely to be in a coalition with Labour based on leaking a 2010-15 coalition working paper. Very naughty. Anyway IMO child benefit should be capped at two kids and be means tested. I always thought it a bit ridiculous my family received it being a higher rate tax payer and for 3 kids. My ex-wife was so bad with money/organization/forms she didn’t receive it for 3 years and didn’t notice (quite rightly they refused to back date it)

I guess if you have a huge and at times violent strike plus rock solid labour consituencies you shouldn;t be totally surprised if the conservatives apprently don’t give a f

Couple of points:

1. The violence shown by miners in the 1984 was nothing compared to the paramilitary force meted out to them by the state.

2. It’s the government’s primary duty and responsibility to ‘give a f’.

The two main political parties are like Walker’s Crisps – the colours dont mean what the used to.

😀 Thats very good

It’s the government’s primary duty and responsibility to ‘give a f’.

I was just making a point, London and SE transfers £34bn in taxes to the rest of the country every year, that pays for a lot of stuff. Chelsea, Kensginston and Westminster pay 7% of the stamp duty collected nationally (a lot of that paid by foreigners too who cannot even vote)

dazh – Member

Isn’t that what the guardian’s election model does? It claims to use all published local and national polls. I understand your eagerness to look for positives, but you have to admit there’s a definite trend towards the tories.

Still got 3 other points

As for Cameron’s desperation, I’m not sure the public view it like that. All they see is passion and enthusiasm, something that Miliband struggles to put across. At the end of the day people like a fighter.

Well I have skin in the game so maybe I’m not quite objective enough also I’m far more engaged in the detail so I might perceive things differently.

How I see it is that here is a guy who has changed his campaign strategy almost every week. First it was lets talk about our economic record, then it was lets attack Eds leadership credentials, then it was lets attack Labour over a deal with the SNP, then this week we hear all of this talk about the economy again and DC has suddenly changed from the calm statesman behind the podium to sleeves rolled up, shouty guy it feels all a bit faux to me.

Labour are seeing Eds personal opinion rating increase, they are running a coherent issues based campaign and thrashing the opposition in the ground war which might be crucial in those key Tory/Lab marginals.

epicsteve – Member
I’m not convinced the anti-SNP stance taken by Labour so far is based on anything other than them wanting to keep their chances open to win more seats in Scotland based on the old “it’s us or the Tories” argument.

When push comes to shove then if Labour need to do a deal with the SNP to form a parliament then I’m sure they will. They can get around their previous arguments by trading off delaying a decision on Trident replacement against an agreement that the SNP won’t push for another referendum with 5 years.

I explained yesterday why this isn’t the case.

All those saying SNP will have some influence over Labour are not looking at the big picture. Labour can just put their queens speech down and dare the SNP to vote it down. The worst that would happen is the SNP bring down another Labour Government just like they did in 79 but instead of ushering in Thatcher, it will allow Labour to regain its Scottish seats and go for a majority government.

I was just making a point, London and SE transfer £34bn on taxes to the rest of the country every year, that pays for a lot of stuff.

So us chippy northerners should all be really grateful, should we?

Heres an idea… instead of viewing this as some sort of charity, How about trying to create a balanced, functional economy that works for the entire country, instead of just one gilded, indulged area of concentrated wealth instead?

Just a thought. This whole situation is due to the Tory’s under Fatcha allowing entire regional industries to disappear without giving a flying **** as to what was going to replace those jobs. The market will sort it out, being the mantra. Well… it didn’t! And it hasn’t! And thats why we now have such a dysfunctional, two tier national economy

Somewhat incredibly, the only politician that the penny seems to have dropped with on this issue, is George Osborne.

I may end up voting Tory 😉

All those saying SNP will have some influence over Labour are not looking at the big picture. Labour can just put their queens speech down and dare the SNP to vote it down. The worst that would happen is the SNP bring down another Labour Government just like they did in 79 but instead of ushering in Thatcher, it will allow Labour to regain its Scottish seats and go for a majority government.

You seem to be forgetting that when it comes to political nouse the SNP are miles ahead of anything Westminster currently has to offer.

wanmankylung – Member

You seem to be forgetting that when it comes to political nouse the SNP are miles ahead of anything Westminster currently has to offer.

Sorry that is just laughable….

Sorry that is just laughable….

Prove it.

dragon – Member

SNP’s policy is on Trident is a mess anyway IMO. They are perfectly happy for the Yanks, French or whoever to park nuclear subs in Faslane but not our own!

Perfectly sensible tbh. Let other people waste fortunes on weapons of mass destruction that by design must never be used. It’s not about whether there’s a nuclear sub in Scottish territory, it’s about who is responsible for it and who paid for it. We don’t want it on our conscience or on our balance sheet.

bencooper – Member

One thing I honestly don’t get: Why are Labour so in love with Trident? the Tories I can understand, but Labour?

Apparently 75% of Labour MP candidates are opposed to Trident renewal. As are most of the public. But it can be spun into boneheaded slogans about DEFENCE and PUTTING OUR COUNTRY AT RISK so it’s always going to be a hot potato. Even people who’re opposed to nuclear armageddon could be swayed by a concerted campaign telling them about how Ed is going to get us invaded by Greece. You can see this already happening.