I was surprised in yesterdays rest day coverage that there was talk of Cav getting through the Pyrenees within the time cut off but no talk of getting up Mount Ventoux twice within the time cut off. Surly tomorrow is another day that will challenge him massively to get within the time limit.

I don’t think it’s an issue. the majority of the teams will be represented in the Grupetto, and the domestics will have clear targets to get everyone else home

also, if there’s 50 riders in the Grupetto, they’re not getting kicked out of the race…

His team will pace him through the stage like they did on Sunday. I don’t think DQS have any other chances in the jersey competitions so they’ll do all they can to protect Cav and the green jersey.

I may be completely wrong but I hope I’m not!

My understanding is that the it’s the fast, rolling medium mountain stages that are the most dangerous to the grupetto. The ones where a decent break goes up the road early and potentially could result in the stage winner winning by several minutes. Generally, on longer mountainous stages the cream rises to the top with a reduced peloton chasing one or two escapees so you tend not to see massive time gaps at the line at the front end.

The cut off time is calculated from a coefficient which recognises the hilly nature and length of the stage so it might be quite generous tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.

also, if there’s 50 riders in the Grupetto, they’re not getting kicked out of the race…

This is the Tour.

Given that a Cav sprint finish to take the record on the Champs Elysee would be absolute box office for the organisers (who all seem to genuinely love him too), I reckon he could get over the mountains at my pace and they’d find some way to bend the rules to keep him in.

Isn’t Pogacar about his size? Maybe he can borrow an e-bike from him.

The climbing doesn’t kick off until 70k in. Cav should be able to hang on until then so he’ll have a smaller portion of the stage off the back losing time.

and they’d find some way to bend the rules to keep him in.

They always have discression to ignore the time limit, but I think you loose all points, so he’d loose the green jersey but can still win stages.

if it’s dry don’t think it’ll be any issue, sprinters are very fast downhill (as they have to be)

so he’d loose the green jersey but can still win stages.

If his jersey is loose maybe they could give him a smaller size?

Mont Ventoux is probably less of a challenge than some of the later stages in the Pyrenees. Tomorrow there is a 20km descent off Mont Ventoux to help riders chase back some time

Isn’t Pogacar about his size? Maybe he can borrow an e-bike from him.

Oof. Although I’ve seen a lot of disquiet about “that” performance.

Wrong thread I know, but I can’t help wondering if G and Rog were fit, whether Pog would look quite so ridiculously good.
But 5 minutes 1st to 3rd (with second from a punt the other day) then 2 minutes 3rd to 10th. Doesn’t half look odd.

also, if there’s 50 riders in the Grupetto, they’re not getting kicked out of the race…

As mentioned above, the race comittes CAN decide to allow riders outside the time limit to stay in the but they forfeit ALL points in the subcompetitions, so I’d imagine DQS will be very keen to stay inside the cut off and have Cav in green on the Champs Elysees

It will be a cafe ride to the foot of Ventoux, perhaps with a few offs for intermediate points. Then a cruise up the first ascent. And by then the fraction of time for the second ascent will be a small fraction of the stage time, so limited losses. And Gruppetto.

Wrong thread I know, but I can’t help wondering if G and Rog were fit, whether Pog would look quite so ridiculously good.

I don’t think even a fully fit G now has the guns to match Pogacar.

Not sure TiRed, I wouldn’t be surprised if some DS wants a top 5 or a top 10 position so asks his riders to get into an early break. I can see the main GC peloton hoping for a cafe ride up the first climb, but they may end up having to defend their position.
DQS won’t get much assistance in the Grupetto, Bike Exchange and Bahrain will make them do all the work.
My Crystal Ball view is for a medium (12 or so) riders to break, maintain a 4 minute gap to the first climb. Then with about 3kms of the first climb to go, an attack by someone wanting to get higher in the GC…..cue the main contenders having to them put in an effort. A fast descent with the attackers putting in more time on the GC top 10…..then a fast hard second climb.
I’ve not looked at who is placed just outside top 10, just my wishful thinking for an exciting stage…but it doesn’t help Cav.

but they forfeit ALL points in the subcompetitions

They’ll still be sprinting in Paris. Shouldn’t be allowed back in. From someone who’s been dropped on more than enough road races! When I’ve been lapped in a circuit race I’ll get back on and sit near the back – going nowhere near attacks or contesting anything in the finish – including lead-outs. If the same principles applied, I might be acquiescent. If it’s 50 riders, not a couple of top French sprinters, again that speaks to the rules not the riders’ performance.

I think sprinters mainly fear a big climb early in a stage (and then mountains later) as that’s when there’s most chance of not making the time limit (I haven’t checked the parcours though to look for remaining stages like that). Given how well Sonny Colbrelli is climbing (and obviously going after the green jersey) he’ll have his team pushing hard to to try and drop Cav early and then also driving on the flat between mountains so we should see a good DQS vs BV battle – although breakaway make-up and time gaps will dictate if GC teams pull for the peloton as well (if they do Cav could be in trouble).

I suspect he’d be happy enough if he just got the stage win record (preferably also winning in Paris) so losing all points in the green jersey (if outside the split but not DQ’d) wouldn’t be such a big blow as it normally would

It’s a shame that you don’t often get to see how good a descender Cav actually is. Apparently him & Renshaw used to drop like cannonballs trying to make up time. Often flying past others at crazy fast speeds..

Shouldn’t be allowed back in

It’s usually only for a very large grupetto, like 50 or more. Demare and Coquard both went out when they finished after the cut off in Tignes. If a group of 70 finish outside though it would be a disaster for the race – wouldn’t look good on tv, fewer domestiques to look after GC riders to keep them fresh for the exciting finish and so on. so they CAN decide to readmit riders

I don’t think even a fully fit G now has the guns to match Pogacar.

Agreed. But some more bodies in the 5 minute gap 1-3rd would make it look more respectable. Rog & G might go there.

t’s a shame that you don’t often get to see how good a descender Cav actually is

Not that good, when the Tour of Britain came past us a few years ago we were in Whaley Bridge to see them come through. Rod Ellingworth (Sky DS at the time) pulled up to say hello to his wide and family and told us Cav had crashed on the Long Hill descent and was in an ambluance 🙁

Not that good

In his book “At speed” he talks about how he’d make up time on hilly days & his tactic was to pace up hills & then drop like a hammer down the other side.

& hey, everyone crashes every once in a while right?

Well hes’s powerful but small, a good shape for descending.

Pretty sure Cav has shared GPS data where he has been well over 100kph on descents

He has. I’ve seen it. (Well pictures of his GPS thingy anyway)

https://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/tour-de-france-rider-hits-huge-speed-descending-mountain-road/

“ Mark Cavendish has said in the past he’s reached; 124km per hour.”

Wrong thread I know, but I can’t help wondering if G and Rog were fit, whether Pog would look quite so ridiculously good.

You’d only be thinking that if you had had your head in the sand for a couple of years.

Agreed. But some more bodies in the 5 minute gap 1-3rd would make it look more respectable. Rog & G might go there.

Roglic, yes. G, not nowadays.

Although I’ve seen a lot of disquiet about “that” performance.

Klunk posted some figures that showed he was a second quicker than Bernal on that climb. It looks like it might be the rest of the bunch aren’t as fresh or fit.

I’ve seen figures showing that Pogacar’s performance was not massively faster than any other attempt up that climb – think we’re tlaking about the Col du Pré, where the fastest time was set by Dan Marton a few years ago

here’s the twitter post I saw

Tadej Pogacar climbed Col de la Colombiere in ~22:00. Very close to record time (21:53 set by Dan Martin in 2018 Tour de France). Gonna verify the time later today. #TDF2021 https://t.co/px6rJkmRtK

— ammattipyöräily (@ammattipyoraily) July 3, 2021

but as mentioned in the replies, wasn;t there a headwind? Even so, it’s not completely unbeleivable numbers

Edit – Colombiere not Pré

also has heas two posts with replies

COL DE LA COLOMBIERE (7.42 km, 8.60 %, 638 m) | #TDF2021 pic.twitter.com/USE8UZDkMU

— ammattipyöräily (@ammattipyoraily) July 3, 2021

interesting timeline, think I might give him a follow

I’m crossing fingers on both hands for the next 24 hours or so.

I’ve said this on here before, it’s impossible to view other riders previous best times up climbs. Too many variables within two different stages held on different days. How much work did Pog have to do compared to DM leading up to the climb? Was Dan in a break? Solo max effort from an hour out? What was the wind doing? Was Dan just in for a stage win and after a rest day? So many more variables to list.

The time limit is calculated on a combination of the coefficient for the stage (it’s difficulty) and the speed (of the winner). Geek that I am I have the regs in front of me and it’s a coefficient 4 stage. I’m guessing that like every other stage so far tomorrow will be fast. The roadbook gives timings for 3 speeds, fast, medium, slow and tomorrow’s fast is 39kph giving a finishing time of 5hrs 3mins. At that speed the cutoff time for category 4 is 16% above the winning time, that’s 48 mins.

The Tignes stage was a much harder proposition. Shorter, meaning the cut-off is less even if the coefficient was higher, and the conditions were awful.

I think he’ll make it.

Good geekery Slowoldman. What’s the estimated cutoff for a medium and slow time?
What’s the weather prediction for tomorrow as well?

18-22 partly cloudy 8mph wind…. nice day for a bike race

Good geekery Slowoldman. What’s the estimated cutoff for a medium and slow time?

Medium
37kph
Winning time 5hrs 21mins
cutoff 13% = 42mins

Slow
35kph
Winning time 5hrs 42mins
cutoff 11% = 38mins

@slowoldman …great explanation pretty sure a lot better than will get on (Aus) tv..some good commentary but short on facts
Pretty sure Cav and team stoked for Ventoux and that will be a big plus..I’d be more worried about the Pyrenees…tired and bad weather despite end in sight

My understanding of the Tignes stage wasn’t that they only just made it inside the cut-off, just that there was nothing to gain from riding any faster, so they took as long as they liked to save energy. Hopefully that means it’s no indication of fittest for Vontoux.

Nothing more to add to this than a bit of self-promotion (as usual) and my illustration of the weather station.

Let’s hope the little bugger makes it up and down there twice. I wouldn’t fancy it myself

Alaphillipe mopped up points but now driving pace…? As ever TDF is about team tactics today looks special in that respect