Cameron kicks EU in the nuts – right decision?

What I think truly terrifying is what is going to come next.

The Tory Right wing, who lest we forget; are a bunch of foaming, swivel-eyed nut-jobs are ridiculously giddy. They’ve got the beginning of what they wanted! They have made the assumption that

a) Cameron is really on their side
b) He is simply too weak to resist their demands

I suspect the truth is a bit of both

I reckon they will already be lining up their next target. SO expect them to be calling for the repeal of EU Employment (and social chapter) law first, then Human Rights legislation.

There’s no way they’ll stop at this. This has just whetted their appetite. And one things for sure. What they want sure the **** won’t be in the interests of most of this countries population. They’ll be representing the narrow interests of the people they really represent

I’m scared! 🙁

Both are correct tho McBoo.

Both are correct tho McBoo

There was no need to use the veto on the alterations to the Lisbon treaty. The need to adhere to the fiscal measures would not have applied to the UK as it does not have the euro and any future tobin tax could have been vetoed separately later.

BY doing this he has made sure that no objections form the UK will be heeded in the future and that the UK has zero influence over the future direction of the EU

ruddy glitchy thingy

There was an interesting comment from an Italian (I think) commentator at the weekend who seemed to be one of the few people looking beyond the political point-scoring. He said something to the effect that the UK being outside the EU was all very well for the UK which would find new trading partners, but the Eurozone’s main external trading partner is the UK and if we look elsewhere they’re completely fubar given that they have more than enough problems as it is with a debt crisis now to be followed by mandated draconian austerity measures.

Also worth bearing in mind that the UK is still the second largest net contributor to the EU after Germany. Under current circumstances they’d be mad to risk the UK leaving the EU and having to find 57bn euro pa elsewhere so there’s still plenty of negotiation room there.

binners I dont think the euroscpetics will force the issue [ or dave will give in] as they know there is no chance of lib dem support so it will end the coalition if dave tries to repeal some of those- Cleggy may actually have a line in the sand he wont cross.

First country to leave the Euro? *whisper* Germany…

Cleggy may actually have a line in the sand he wont cross.

😆

ernie_lynch –
so they are definitely not going to want the break-up of the “coalition”. Their best hope is to abandon any remaining principles which they might still have left and hope that by some bizarre miracle the economy improves dramatically, vindicating their betrayal to their voters.

Which of course isn’t going to happen, so they might as well enjoy their ministerial cars and enhanced salaries for the next few years.

Looks like you are right from the statements coming out from the Lib Dems. Of course all it means is that Cameron can now happily ignore them on all issues as its clear they will not collapses the coalition no matter what happens. Will the next leib dem conference force the issue?

Junkyard – I think yo underestimate how deluded the eurosceptics are – they would happily oust Cameron and cause the government to fall if they thought he betrayed them.

What do you think “overly” means?

In this context, I have no idea.

Forget all this stuff about the UK leaving the and it will be a disaster for trade. Its nonsense, we are all fully paid up members of the WTO, there will be no tarrifs on trade whatever happens.

I want an EU that is a free-trade zone and nothing much more. Lisbon gave the EU a diplomatic service, president, emabassies, flags, national anthems and all the other trappings of a state. Yet come Libya, Britain and France decide to act and Germany wraps itself in it’s pacifist comfort blanket. We can argue the toss about whether we should have been involved in Libya (but please lets not) but it was plain yet again that for all the hot air about EU speaking with one voice, European nations cannot ever do so when the chips are down.

And dont get me started on the Common Agricultural Policy. We ought to be bloody ashamed that we still feather-bed European farmers and erect trade barriers against Third World subsistance agriculture. It is an absolute disgrace……All that hot air about helping Africa from Brussels. Fix that and we wont need to send them foreign aid.

I agree with TJ on this one. The Tory Right are all absolute headbangers. They gleefully bought the Major Government! They wouldn’t hesitate to bring Cameron down too. They hate Europhobes of any colour. They probably burn effigies of Ken Clarke!

They’re absolute loony tunes! And given that Cameron knows the Lib Dems are utterly spineless, and are now effectively his Bitch for the next 3 years, its the mentalists on the Right he needs to worry about. And more worryingly: appease

mcboo

I want an EU that is a free-trade zone and nothing much more.

I’d like free beer and bicycles but that isn’t going to happen either. You need here to be an agreed set of standards or else its not a level playing field and yo get a race to the bottom on allsorts of things. Teh EU is not going to turn the clock back and there is going to be no transfer of power EU to UK – try it and be thown out

Forget all this stuff about the UK leaving the and it will be a disaster for trade. Its nonsense, we are all fully paid up members of the WTO, there will be no tarrifs on trade whatever happens.

I think its almost certain that there will be euro legislation that means the financial markets that trade in Europe will be going from London to Europe – do you really think the Eurobanks are going to stay in London now?

WTO does not stop powerful countries from using protectionist tarrifs – again its more likely now not less as we will have no say in Europe

Lisbon gave the EU a diplomatic service, president, emabassies, flags, national anthems and all the other trappings of a state.

The reach and expense of EU diplomatic staff is wildly exaggerated.

Bild Sonntag Poll – 46% believe Germany would be better off out of the EU versus 45% disagree.

Yet on and on it goes…..

The Tory Right are all absolute headbangers…They hate Europhobes of any colour.

Europhiles, surely?

So to sum up – the only people that thisk this is a good idea are the eurosceptics?

Not quite TJ – for someone who loves asking for evidence, I am sure you took into account the Times online poll – 57% DC was correct to use the veto, 14% he was wrong. 29% don’t knows.

A significant section of the Tory party think it stupid

??

Ken clark gave in an interview in which he described the veto as ‘disappointing, surprising’ and ‘a strange turn of events’.

Would you expect a Turkey to vote for Christmas. That’s like saying Bill Cash was excited or the world’s round

Of course the Lib Dems are hopping mad.

Depending on the day and time of day???

It will damage the UKs financial centres as banks like Deutsch bank will probably move from London to Frankfurt

They are already HQ’s in Frankfurt and extremely unlikely to close London. Remember you a talking about the financial services industry ( very global, very flexible). It will move resources to the place of least resistance.

, the UK will no longer get inward investment from outside the EU as there will no longer be any advantage to companies to do so.

How can anyone make that judgment at this stage?

Remember we have had 8 summits this year, 4 rescue packages and yet no progress at all in dealing with the real issues. So all these foreign companies are going to locate where exactly? In Greece, ????, In Italy ?????, In Spain??? In France???? So I am a Chinese (insert country of choice) company and I need location in EMEA time zone – do you really think that you are going to choose to locate in countries with a future of desperate economics, political unrest, unhelpful legislation etc? No me neither! Europe is a slow moving train crash not a haven for FDI!!

I agree about the Eurosceptics and this is the worst thing about the weekend. The rabid ones are as mad as the unquestioning Europhiles in failing to understand what is going on. It is depressing to watch.

The UK eurosceptics are a side show. The real players will be the middle classes in the S and periphery of Europe. Within 6 months there patience will evaporate. Europe will implode from the inside not because of media junkies like Nigel Farage and his ilk. They are the bit players in a dramatic marathon – create noise to allow for the scene setters to prepare for the next Act – the denoument!

So I am a Chinese (insert country of choice) company and I need location in EMEA time zone – do you really think that you are going to choose to locate in countries with a future of desperate economics, political unrest, unhelpful legislation etc?

Meh. The political risk to investment in the EU is very low, and Chinese firms are hardly risk-averse anyway. If you’re referring to political unrest, I assume you’re referring to Athens with its riots – somewhere no-one located anyway – and not to England with its riots…

Kona – frankly it could be any European countries, so you are correct. The UK are obviously not immune from social unrest but if they are clever the government will make a massive push to create significant business incentives to locate in the UK. The Chinese remain very risk averse – I know from professional experience.

The Guardian (well know Bible of Euro scepticism :wink:) in its leader:

The analysis of the crisis presented in Friday’s final statement is the same stuck record as Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have been playing for the past two years, ever since Greece first admitted fudging its budget figures. That goes, in essence: this crisis is the fault of a few southern European nations that have been playing fast and loose with their treasuries. The solution offered is largely the same, too: force the miscreant countries to sort out their public finances, and lend them some cash to tide them over. This is economics as a morality tale, and it is continued in the latest accord. There are the boneheaded stipulations that each country must run a balanced budget (as if the public sector should not respond to recessions in the private sector) and the threats of “automatic consequences” for any government that falls foul of the rules. Picture Tony Soprano reincarnated in Frankfurt and you’re not a million miles off.

Yet that founding economic analysis is of only limited relevance to Greece – and no help at all in dealing with Spain and Ireland, both of whose slumps stem from housing and lending bubbles, rather than profligate governments. And yet even as the crisis has rolled up to the borders of France and Belgium, the euro club has stuck to that story. The only thing that has changed has been the size of the emergency loans, from the few tens of billions mooted a couple of years ago to a fundraising target now of €1 trillion. European leaders can throw around as many noughts as they like and they will not sound any more convincing. What’s needed now is a coherent plan that covers the short term and the institutional and economic. In the short term, the single-currency club must hope that the European Central Bank follows through on its signals of a few days ago and keeps on buying government bonds from nations otherwise struggling to raise cash. But that is a very short-term solution. The voters of Bavaria, say, are not going to cheer on their central bank blowing up its balance sheet to keep Mario Monti in business.

The UK are obviously not immune from social unrest but if they are clever the government will make a massive push to create significant business incentives to locate in the UK.

Yes they can create a low business/corporate tax model, the UK can become the Anglo Saxon Tiger, the new Ireland, what could possibly go wrong!

The Chinese remain very risk averse – I know from professional experience.

Weirdly, my experience of advising corporations investing in high-risk markets was the opposite – the “western” corporations frequently lost out to the Chinese corporations who were willing to bear a higher degree of political risk. See for instance Kazakhstan, Angola, Zambia…

So to sum up – the only people that thisk this is a good idea are the eurosceptics?

Not quite TJ – for someone who loves asking for evidence, I am sure you took into account the Times online poll – 57% DC was correct to use the veto, 14% he was wrong. 29% don’t knows.

….and the whole cohort of Labour-right commentators. John Rentoul, Luke Bozier, Dan Hodges amongst others all coming out for DC and sticking it to EMili and Clegg. Tis great to be alive.

Yes they can create a low business/corporate tax model, the UK can become the Anglo Saxon Tiger, the new Ireland, what could possibly go wrong!

You could tie yourself into a monetary system that keeps IR too low for too long and/or a currency that crushes cost competitiveness. Otherwise, not much.

A few weeks ago the spokesman for Rumpy Pumpy was on Newsnight and he commented that his bosses job was not to produce correct solutions but to achieve compromise between 27 states – the problems couldn’t have been summed up better even by a wild €sceptic.

Its like the IPCC conference this weekend (anyone notice!) – the objective seemed to reach any agreement irrespective of whether it was correct or even meaningful. Did anyone watch the Chinese delegate – wow, now that was a man looking for compromise.

while the rabid eurosceptics are erect with excitement-mcboo pitching a tent?

camerons flounce out of the negotiations will hurt the uk, moving us further away from the largest free trade zone in the world as we are about to enter a double dip recession

and deutsche bank is the largest single employer in the city, the city is constantly reminding us how easy it is for banks to up sticks on a whim

the details of the merkozy plan to fix the longterm eurozone may be nonexistant at the moment (greater fiscal interconectedness is the term used iirc?)
all we know for sure is that the uk wont be sitting at the table when they are worked out

and anyone, thm? have any actual suggestions,for a long term fix – move the mercedes, bmw factories to greece ? 😉

what i find strange is the EU strategy on engaging the uk into europe and its currency

the french appear to be forcing the uk to the margins and out of the single market all together, basically if you are not willing to sign up to the club 100% then bugger off

they know that the majority of brits are not interested in ditching the pound, signing over more sovereignty and increasing rules and tax – and on the political side its an even bigger mess

the game was loaded from the start, the EU even pushed this recent treaty change via the back door to avoid any nasty referendums – how is that democratic?

france is using the euro problem to intergrate the 26 further, but when it comes down to it, the big nations like france and germany get the most out of it

like the ‘cheap/strong/light – pick any two’ saying – the UK has ‘pay up/lose sovereignty/marginalised – pick any two’

Why would Deutsche Bank (where I used to work) move from London (where there will be no Tobin tax) to Frankfurt where they plan to introduce one? I can tell you there is barely a single German working in that firm in London, there isnt a hope that their staff are going to move to Frankfurt.

So kimber – why is DB located in London? Do you believe that any transaction tax will be unilaterally directed at London? Do you believe that (in the future) the UK will have more onerous legislation/regulation that the rest of Europe. Will ICBC, VTB Capital, Itau, ICICI move their European HQ’s to F’furt?

Plus – to have faith in Merkel, you have to have evidence that she gets the problem. Did you see the fudge this weekend – read what it actually says about the mechanism for ensuring fiscal complaince – notice the significant scope for “compromise’ that is deliberately left in?

BMW moved large parts of 3 series production to S Africa.

basically if you are not willing to sign up to the club 100% then bugger off

Which is understandable. The U in EU stands for union, does it not?

Blame it on France…. 🙄

Why would Deutsche Bank (where I used to work) move from London (where there will be no Tobin tax) to Frankfurt where they plan to introduce one?

There will still be a Tobin tax on transactions within the euro zone, whether the bank is based in Frankfurt, New York or London, not being within the Euro zone will also likely bring additional taxes for companies operating outside the zone.

I never believed for one second the various banks threats to up sticks and shift to *insert country/city here*.

And its nob all to do with economics. London is one of the most vibrant cultural modern cities in the world. Especially if you’re wadded! There’s no way they’re going anywhere really.

Particularly as, if you have a decent accountant, UK tax seems like a volountary thing you can submit a piffling amount of your income too.

Organisations may say one thing. Individuals – particularly monumentally greedy and self-obsessed ones – will continue to do another

There will still be a Tobin tax on transactions within the euro zone, whether the bank is based in Frankfurt, New York or London, not being within the Euro zone will also likely bring additional taxes for companies operating outside the zone.

^^^^^You made this up^^^^^

Why would Deutsche Bank (where I used to work) move from London

i have no idea and nor does cameron any incentives to do so in the forthcoming of the merkozy plan that may or may not exist he will have no say at all

and if merkel was as petty as sarkozy i could imagine plenty of governmental pressure too

As MSP says – the EU will legislate to make it cheaper / easier / better to operate in Frankfurt. the most likely part being all transactions in Eurobonds and euros have to be done inside the eurozone.

You really think that Germany will continue to allow London to siphon off money?

Cameron has so annoyed them that tit for tat will now apply and punative measures will be used especially as the UK will now have no say in the matter

^^^^^You made this up^^^^^

Well duhhhh! Its my opinion of how it will work out with the UK on the outside, if you have more solid information on the future could you tell me who wins next years grand national?

IIRC there has already been movement towards this. Its certainly something city analysts consider possible / probable

The German and French banks could leave, but only if they decide to retreat from investment banking. It isnt impossible that that could happen, but it just leaves a gap for the US and British banks to take more market share.

TJ whats with all this concern for the Square Mile? You hate bankers and wish them good riddance no?

TJ – you are merely showing that you do not know how global finance works. Do you actually know what a Eurobond is (clue, it has nothing to do with €)? And you think that F’furt is going to be able to say -all Euro FX trading has to happen in F’furt/Paris etc!! Imagine the conversation between the Germans and the Swiss – sorry Zurich, like London we are going to stop you trading € FX!!!!

This type of scaremongering is patently absurd and is a unhelpful as the €sceptics extreme views. A least Kimbers had the honesty to admit, “I have no idea”.

More FX is traded in London than in the rest of the planet combined. Hardly any of those trades involve GBP. Just because a bond or derivative is denominated in a currency that doesnt mean it has to be traded in one location. It isnt even remotely possible that Merkozy could could exclude London from EUR capital markets.

And its nob all to do with economics. London is one of the most vibrant cultural modern cities in the world. Especially if you’re wadded! There’s no way they’re going anywhere really.

One of the most. If I were loaded I’d rather live and work in Barcelona to be honest! I’ll give you it over Frankfurt though…