BT/EE still needs to get through competition approval. There will now be a big push from every UK telco for Openreach to be fully separated (which is long overdue and has been hampering the whole nation).
Sky has just done a national roaming deal with Telefonica, which is good for Telefonica. It puts certainty into their price with Hutch (MVNOs are like pure profit for almost all MNOs) and will lessen the competition challenge there.
In fact, the real problem created here is not about other telco’s being left out, but more that we need to ensure that MVNOs are mandated at a regulatory level, which has been seen in other markets where the number of MNOs has consolidated. This is needed to protect the consumer (BT won;t want to trash the value of their purchase by wrecking the retail market, and I can;t see Hutch doing the same if they acquire Telefonica).
Lots of potential shake up actually means that the smaller telcos (like TalkTalk and in the mobile space at least – Virgin) will be well placed to create more retail competition in the market across all four services.
The one that’s really in the cold now is Vodafone – Vittorio Calao’s allergy to MVNOs has diminished its wholesale business. It bought C&W in the UK to get a fixed line network, and we’re all waiting to see what it’s actually going to do with it that everyone else isn’t already well advanced with.
Sky is a content business, and therefore has to face into a major question: does it want to be a network owner? While it’s now going to have a mobile network (national roaming on Telefonica) there’s nothing to say that it wants to own a fixed line network.
Virgin and TalkTalk are well placed – both are the closest we have to true quad play providers (which is what’s driven this consolidation). TalkTalk’s the smallest of the big four fixed line telcos, but is also the one that’s driven the changes in the market. Virgin’s market is quite specific – separate network away from Openreach – and it’s also building a mobile network.
We live in interesting times!