I see Putin is pissing about in and Ukraine again.

And we’ve deployed six Typhoons to Romania to monitor.

Shall we just sack it all in now?

I can’t be arsed with a war after the last 13 months of shite.

Donn’t worry, it’s just Boris making sure he really gets to be Churchill.

On second thoughts be VERY afraid.

And we’ve deployed six Typhoons to Romania to monitor.

I bet the Russians are absolutely bricking it!

Putin knows he can do what he likes and short of nuking Germany, nobody is going to do a bloody thing

Random thought flitting through my head – would women be conscripted to fight in a 21stC war?

Random thought flitting through my head – would women be conscripted to fight in a 21stC war?

It depends if they identify as soldiers.

Thinking of doing a Greggs, Liqoursave, Fags ‘r’ Us blitz…

would women be conscripted to fight in a 21stC war?

Can’t imagine anyone would to be honest. It’ll either stay very limited theatre for fear of the inevitable if it escalates or they’ll have no time to even draw up the paper work.

But since you’re on topic…

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/apr/11/china-v-russia-v-america-is-2021-the-year-orwells-1984-comes-true

Random thought flitting through my head – would women be conscripted to fight in a 21stC war

Pretty sure ww3 (and the planet) will be done and dusted before the need for additional foot soldiers beyond the current standing army.

Things are escalating here.

I see Putin is pissing about in and Ukraine again.

I rate Taiwan as more dangerous than Ukraine. Putin is fairly cunning, the Chinese leadership seem to be on a very dangerous course.

Putin knows that Brexit/Covid/Trump, two of which he helped engineer, have helped destabilise western governments and given him the opportunity to exert pressure in Ukraine without much fear of opposition. He’s always been an opportunist.

Be interesting to see whether he has any particular cyber offensive up his sleeve in the next few months.

The US will let Vlad piss about in Ukraine as much as he likes  sadly, and i can’t see the rest of NATO jumping up and down anxiously to get involved.  I don’t think the American public would get behind a new war just as Biden gets set too withdraw troops from Afghanistan anyway.

Bear in mind though that Putin is hugely unpopular in Russia, and a good chunk of the electorate (especially young voters) aren’t impressed at all by his “muscular” diplomacy.

100 seconds to midnight. Seems a bit pointless doing those jobs around the house really.

Putin knows that Brexit/Covid/Trump, two of which he helped engineer

Not this again! 😀 It’s the left-wing version of QAnon 😉

Maybe I should buy that 25kg sack of pilsner malt this week after all. Having the ability to make beer will make the impending viral and nuclear death of the world less painful.

a good chunk of the electorate (especially young voters) aren’t impressed at all by his “muscular” diplomacy.

That pleases me, I’d assumed he was almost universally admired over there.

Will I ever get to ride Whistler again? All I need is a few laps of Dirt Merchant and A-line then I’ll embrace the apocalypse.

Putin knows he can do what he likes and short of nuking Germany, nobody is going to do a bloody thing

Ukraine, that was formally part of the Soviet union, unlike any of the countries US and UK armies currently in.
Far as this commentator goes,they are protecting their borders from nato aggression.

Last time one of the big players tried to reinforce their allies on the borders of their opposition was Cuba 1962. And we saw the lengths one party was willing to go to to protect its borders.

We are already really, at least another cold war, just this time it’s being fought via economic sanctions, small scale proxy wars and cyber warfare.

Brexit/Covid/Trump, two of which he helped engineer……….. He’s always been an opportunist.

you cant have it both ways, manipulative or opportunist?

Things are escalating here.

Where?

🙂

 I’d assumed he was almost universally admired over there.

Christ no, he’s more unpopular than he’s ever been, and getting increasingly so. (think Trump levels of disapproval, so 30-35%) The Russians aren’t stupid, they see that he’s manipulating the elections, they see he’s manipulating the constitution to allow himself to carry on being President, but most Russians day to day have so little say on politics (it is, after all a mafia state) that they’ve effectively been brow-beaten by the press and TV (all Putin controlled)  and as Putin has the army and police on-side for now at least, what can they effectively do? Any opposition (that’s not Putin approved)  gets imprisoned or poisoned, or both. And demonstrations get protestors thrown in jail. The Russian GDP despite it being 17% of the world’s land surface and home to 1.3 billion people is about the same as Australia. It’s a failed state in all but name

The west has a curious attitude to it really, it’s a convenient bogie-man fo’shure, but in real-politick terms, Putin’s Russia isn’t a threat at all…

From a global death and destruction point of view I’d be much more worried about China and India to be honest. That’s already a shooting war every other week and if it happens to escalate at all we’ll all be pulled in very quickly.

Ukraine and Taiwan are great for some sabre rattling but no one on either side is dumb enough to start trading fire over them. Really its just a case of China and Russia pushing the boundaries. At some point NATO/the USA will put boots on the ground in a friendly country by invitation and it’ll simmer down for a while but until they do both the others will push the boundaries, Russia might invade Ukraine, China Taiwan, but so long as they do it without shooting any nato forces in the process nato won’t do anything more than issue a strongly worded statement about it. Then it’ll be the Philippines and Belarus or wherever until such point as it’s made clear “ours, yours” which is all its really about.

If the Russians look like moving on Georgia proper mind I can well imagine a [under RTE] Turkish counter offensive and the whole world going to poo.

It will all kick off in the Pacific over Taiwan given time – maybe not a world war but a huge regional conflict involving the US is almost a dead certainty IMO.

Ukraine and Taiwan are great for some sabre rattling but no one on either side is dumb enough to start trading fire over them.

They absolutely are – the whole PLA and PLAN modernization effort basically revolves around taking Taiwan by force. The US’s Asia Pacific commander Philip Davidson thinks it could happen within six years, Indo-Pacific Commands Admiral John Aquilino thinks it WILL happen within one year and that it’s China’s top priority.

Russia might invade Ukraine, China Taiwan, but so long as they do it without shooting any nato forces in the process nato won’t do anything more than issue a strongly worded statement about it.

The Yanks would absolutely trade shots with China over Taiwan – first they are bound by convention to defend Taiwan, secondly they have built up a huge amount of firepower in the region, more than necessary for a bit of sabre rattling and deterrence and thirdly their pivot to a defense model better suited to the Pacific highlights that. They’ve been building up force with the intention of using it.

The Russian GDP despite it being 17% of the world’s land surface and home to 1.3 billion people is about the same as Australia. It’s a failed state in all but name

It really, really is hard to take your opinion seriously. Russia’s population is about 140 million people, not 1.3 billion.

Sorry to say that this just confirms the general trend where people stereotype in 95% of cases and don’t even bother to research the subject but will definitely have a strong opinion.

And yes – I’m Russian, born and bred there. Been living in the UK since 2008.

Thankfully, Ukraine aren’t a NATO member so Article 5 won’t apply if Russia invade. Expect a further annexation of territory, probably the Donesk region which is pro Russian.

What the Chinese are doing in the South China Sea is probably more worrying in terms of the potential global economic impacts if it does kick off.

There are also indications of a huge famine in North Korea, not helped by COVID, which affects millions and may require a global effort.

There are also indications of a huge famine in North Korea, not helped by COVID, which affects millions and may require a global effort

Like as not unfortunately it’ll probably not become anything more than rumours and indication until decades after its passed and even if it did, under its current leadership* is no more likely to attract a global response than you changing a light bulb.

*not, necessarily their decision, I’ll let you make your own mind on that.

I was randomly thinking of this last night. Given the fact that countries have gone into complete lockdown over the fear of COVID, ICUs being overwhelmed, yada yada yada… what’s happened to all the militaries in the past year? Have they been sealed off from the outside world for fear of infection? Are they actually struggling with COVID and so keeping a low profile?

China’s obviously given vaccines to a large chunk of the PLA, presumably Russia’s done the same, but… interesting times

there was a Janes analysis of the units being deployed, and think it’s unlikely.

@i_scoff_cake
Free Member
Putin knows that Brexit/Covid/Trump, two of which he helped engineer

Not this again! 😀 It’s the left-wing version of QAnon 😉

To clarify, you are categorically saying that the Russian state was not found to have attempted to influence Trump’s election and the Brexit vote?

They’ve been building up force with the intention of using it.

Oddly they spent 5 decades building their nuclear capability, never used that.

The Yanks would absolutely trade shots with China over Taiwan – first they are bound by convention to defend Taiwan,

Like the UK to the Good Friday agreement etc? Its not 1914 anymore, those treaties establish a basis, they’ll be dropped like a ton of bricks when it becomes inconvenient.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Not so sure, a US deployment in Taiwan I’d give better odds, but I absolutely, categorically can’t see both happening in the foreseeable future.

The US’s Asia Pacific commander Philip Davidson thinks it could happen within six years, Indo-Pacific Commands Admiral John Aquilino thinks it WILL happen within one year and that it’s China’s top priority.

Two people with budgets to justify and compete for whose existence very much depends upon a threat in the region, suggesting they should be given more money because there’s imminent threat? They’re not exactly going to suggest (publicly) that it’s all just noise are they?
Do I know better than they do? Not a chance, do I trust public comment which justifies their own continued existence over (for instance) all those US forces stationed in Germany, no not a jot of it. The US navy has been arguing up the Pacific theatre threat since 1947 and they’re unlikely to change tune now.

To clarify, you are categorically saying that the Russian state was not found to have attempted to influence Trump’s election and the Brexit vote?

To clarify I attempted to jump onto the moon last night.

Things are escalating here.

Where?

🙂

Daily Mail ?.

I find it telling by the way we have a headline link, China Threatens Retaliations to the US , then on the 3rd page is another story of the US and China signing a joint cooperation on Mars or something on that same day.

I think this is an out of control bit of saber rattling from all sides, they’re jangling like a sadistic Gaoler, but which should shortly end with loud Harrumphs all round, and everybody returns to their own business.

Oh, is Antiques roadshow on.

Russia’s population is about 140 million people, not 1.3 billion.

Ooops, my bad, should’ve checked. But I’m all ears, let’s have your opinion.

Ooops, my bad, should’ve checked. But I’m all ears, let’s have your opinion.

Really? Should have checked? 🙂

OMG, I thought that general understanding of this planet population composition is common knowledge but oh well…

My opinion? On what? On ignorance? 🙂

‘Russia is a failed state’, my ass… A country which sends people to space, builds nuclear power stations which actually work, a country which developed a proper working COVID-19 vaccine among the first and by now has literally removed all pandemic restrictions is, of course, a failed state.

Don’t get me wrong, Putin is no daisy and I don’t support him. But complaining about Russia protecting its own interests is a bit hypocritical, don’t you think? How many countries has the UK or US invaded and bombed in XXI century? In the last 10 years? Last 5 years?

Russian society is changing and younger generations are way less pro-Putin that older ones. On the other hand, I witnessed the demise of the Soviet Union and what followed, trust me, was not pretty at all. I know what hyperinflation is and what it means to live on USD 100-200/month, and if Russia was ever close to a failed state, it was in the 90s.

After Putin took over, things started improving, and dramatically. Now, it may have been due to oil prices and/or other factors, but for the majority of the population it does not matter. I left the country over a decade ago, and even then it was not bad. Now we keep hearing that in some areas life has improved a lot. Way less bureaucracy at low level, systems similar to GOV.UK but (surprise!) better etc etc.

This is, again, not to say that Putin is a nice guy. This is to give you an idea of why people support him, really. Quality of life has actually improved.

Politically though this came at a price, and the landscape is all but useless. I think all possible real opposition (don’t get me started on Navalny..) never had a chance to develop at all. And of course it has consequences in the society and how decisions being made. And more and more people are unhappy about it. Which I think will have its effect on the country given time.

When I keep hearing about Russian intervention in Brexit/Trump, I quietly smile to myself. I honestly sometimes wish Putin had such long and cunning hands – that would’ve been if not fun but at least amusing.. 😉 To me it just looks like politicians trying to blame their cock ups on a wiiild, eeeevil Russianz…

One of the big issues when ‘sharing my opinion’ is that many people have so stereotypical views and so really not interested in digging an inch deeper that it makes little sense. What Russia is bad at is PR, really. Not part of the culture, I guess.

Thanks for letting us know your opinion AndreyE, it is good to have some real insight from someone who has actually lived there / been born there.

Thanks AndreyE, interesting. MrsMC did a years VSO in Russia 1997/98, that was an interesting time out there.

I think that there is accepted evidence that “the Russians” tried to influence Brexit and Trump, which must have had top level support. It suits their interests to have the West split and divided. How successful they were, and how much Western politicians have used that as as an excuse for their own failures that created the void to allow it happen, are maybe the grey area for discussion.

wo people with budgets to justify and compete for whose existence very much depends upon a threat in the region, suggesting they should be given more money because there’s imminent threat? They’re not exactly going to suggest (publicly) that it’s all just noise are they?

They would have jobs and funding regardless, US top brass don’t have a habit of publicly overegging a situation. Again, their build up in the Pacific isn’t business as usual.

he US navy has been arguing up the Pacific theatre threat since 1947 and they’re unlikely to change tune now.

Because it’s probably the most populous, diverse and economically important region in the world.

Do I know better than they do? Not a chance, do I trust public comment which justifies their own continued existence over (for instance) all those US forces stationed in Germany, no not a jot of it

Russia isn’t a near peer adversary on the rise economically.

Anyway, the Army are saying the same as well.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2021/03/11/china-declares-war-us-inevitable-army-general-highlights-need-fighting-vehicles.html

“The top uniformed soldier in China, chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, stated that war with the United States is inevitable,” Coffman said. “That is the first time China has made that statement publicly.”

I wouldn’t be so sure about China being too clever to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.

‘Russia is a failed state’, my ass…

Yes, really. Failing has nothing to do with outward signs of prosperity like building power stations. After all; the USSR had a space program, so by your own yard-stick wasn’t a failed state?

Failing States (and by state here I mean “The State”: it’s government, public services, law, and so on) have pressures that govts cannot or will not deal with, and eventually will arrive at a point of collapse. things like: Mounting demographic pressure (declining birth rates will do more harm to most states in the near future than pretty much everything else), and ethnic conflict. widespread and systemic corruption, massive economic inequality. The Russian ‘state’ has largely de-legitimised itself, public services are more or less non-existent, there’s widespread suspension or arbitrary applications of laws mostly aimed at political opponents, the security services largely operate free of any constraints, and with impunity (no surprise given it’s president is an ex-spy himself) and any govt that decides that assassination of it’s political enemies both internally and externally is a good way to keep itself in power has mostly failed any test of “good governance”. So yeah, I’m still going to call it a failing state, despite it’s obvious advances in outward prosperity.

You can take the view of Putin that he took on a huge challenge in the 90’s and to a degree has stabilized Russia, but to misquote Tacitus. “To plunder, butcher, steal, these things they misname empire: they make a desolation and they call it peace”

Take a long enough view: and  most states “fail” Some just more quickly than others. There’s indexes of these things if you care to look for them, but by most measures, Russia isn’t doing well, and things aren’t looking up in the short term, and it’s unclear whether Putin can or indeed wants to do anything to prevent it.

I see India vs Pakistan re Kashmir and India vs China leading to Ladakh being a militarised state (if it’s not already) and the destruction of a beautiful Buddhist culture and environment. Lot of flags to replace.

Thanks for letting us know your opinion AndreyE, it is good to have some real insight from someone who has actually lived there / been born there.

My pleasure!

Thanks AndreyE, interesting. MrsMC did a years VSO in Russia 1997/98, that was an interesting time out there.

Yep, indeed 🙂 1998 was a year when I started a Uni in Moscow moving from my home city in South Urals. And the same year when Russia defaulted on its debt obligations eventually seeing rouble devaluing 5 fold (from 6 RUR/USD to 30 RUR/USD). It was fun having budgeted to pay like 10 roubles per a bottle of sunflower oil and have to pay 40. Then again, we were students and did not care much for this if we had some food, beer, and roof over our heads 🙂

Hearing this:

The Russian ‘state’ has largely de-legitimised itself, public services are more or less non-existent, there’s widespread suspension or arbitrary applications of laws mostly aimed at political opponents, the security services largely operate free of any constraints, and with impunity (no surprise given it’s president is an ex-spy himself) and any govt that decides that assassination of it’s political enemies both internally and externally is a good way to keep itself in power has mostly failed any test of “good governance”. So yeah, I’m still going to call it a failing state, despite it’s obvious advances in outward prosperity.

and this:

Russia isn’t doing well, and things aren’t looking up in the short term, and it’s unclear whether Putin can or indeed wants to do anything to prevent it.

From someone clueless enough to claim that Russian population is as big as China’s or India’s is quite entertaining.

You happen to see only one fraction of one side of the argument, and even then, as I say, you don’t care to actually understand much at all.

Problems exist in all countries. I, for once, am struggling to come to terms with the UK being duped into Brexit and cannot believe what the political situation here has come to. It looks like ineptitude and open corruption in places and this is sad. Truly sad. But it does not mean that the country is at the end of its life, does it?

Speaking of failing states, vast majority of Russians who’ve moved to the UK will be absolutely baffled by the NHS specialist waiting times. Like, a few months to be seen by a consultant? Really? Don’t get me wrong, NHS has fantastic capabilities and for better or worse I know this first hand, but again, nothing’s perfect.

Police where I live does not care about vehicle theft and house burglaries (maybe not the right term, cases when there’s noone at home and thugs break in an steal stuff) and this is a nice area with good schools in London commuting belt yada yada.

Does it mean the UK is a failing state more so than Russia when using your criteria? I don’t know and for sure I won’t use this term on either country because I think it does not do any of the 2 countries I call home justice.