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The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.

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Back in my day even projectors and TV's would befuddle most teachers 😀


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 7:45 pm
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I’m learning that teachers are even shitter at anything IT related than I’d imagined.

What with no training and being asked on a Thursday to be educating all students at home by Monday (I'm only exaggerating slightly, this is more or less what the Government expected)?

I actually think (based on my knowledge of local schools in Somerset) that schools are doing an amazing job. They have adapted to a completely different way of working with no warning and little or no resource.

The feedback we have had from parents and the local community in general has been really positive. With many of our vulnerable families they have not heard from their social workers, Virtual Schools (children looked after) or other external support but they are getting regular contact from us. As above, we are open over Easter for children of key workers and vulnerable children. We have also been warned that we may have to continue staffing school over the summer holiday; which we will do as we have a key role in supporting our community and it is the right thing to do.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 7:47 pm
 DT78
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What’s this rubbish in the press about them thinking about opening schools up again, because it’s shown to not make much difference as kids aren’t badly effected. True, but what about spreading it to all the parents and school staff who may well die from it, or pass it on.

Am I stupid or is this a really bad idea?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 7:49 pm
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What with no training and being asked on a Thursday to be educating all students at home by Monday

I missed the smiley! They’re all doing a great job, to be fair. 😀

They’re certainly not losing their famed sense of humour either. 😉


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 7:59 pm
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Just got in from work and gone for a walk, saw a police patrol driving round the bottom end of the local park, walked to the top of the park and the evening weed dealing **** hang out was full of the towns popping and farting exhaust chav mobiles all there having a MaxPower get together!
Rang local police to instruct them to drive round and go to the top car park instead for a bustomatic on them all.

Chav idiots.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:02 pm
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It’s non-contactual work – do you do that?

Ha ha ha, is that a real question? Spent much time in the private sector?

I’ll bow out at this point, it seems I’ve managed to massively derail the busiest thread on STW.

Suffice to say the Teachers and Partners of Teachers of STW don’t think it’s a good idea to extend the school term past it’s usual end. Noted.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:02 pm
 colp
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Jesus, No.10 can’t even do social distancing for the TV
C4 News just now had a clip showing a bloke delivering flowers to No.10.
Door opens, out leans a police officer (or security guard) and the guy delivering the flowers passes them directly to him.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:11 pm
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Suffice to say the Teachers and Partners of Teachers of STW don’t think it’s a good idea to extend the school term past it’s usual end. Noted.

I think it's more that you think any opposition from teachers to your idea is "flaky". But yeah, I'm out.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:15 pm
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I liked this thread when it had more scientific content.

Bitching about teachers doesn't help any of us.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:20 pm
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Easter holidays provide a natural break in the war and time to take stock on whether things can be lifted. Looking an my predictions l, Spain and Italy are looking like they have reached peak COVID and that informs on the U.K. position. But.... here is the kicker... forward projection assumes that things do not change appreciably before the fire is over.

I cannot see a return to school next term. The U.K. epidemic will be declining by summer half-term, at which point it’s only “half a term to go” and the risk of a mass increase in mixing will be seen as too great.

And I have ALWAYS had A-A down as an all-round good guy and credit to the teaching profession. Since nobody asked. I have immense respect for anyone that takes that vocation.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:25 pm
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I cannot see a return to school next term. The U.K. epidemic will be declining by summer half-term, at which point it’s only “half a term to go” and the risk of a mass increase in mixing will be seen as too great.

I've been saying this since day 1.

On the thornier subject of school timetables - I can see that there might be a need for some initial extra workload/changing of school holidays during 2020. Perhaps even a return to school a month earlier than normal in order to catch up, or a modification/reduction of the Autumn mid-term break. That surely shouldn't need a review of teachers contracts etc


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 8:37 pm
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Anybody know the provenance of the IHME (Seattle)?

They are predicting the UK will be the worst hit in Europe with 40% of the dead (3,000 a day at peak, 66,000 by August, peak in 10 days) apparently due to dicking about with ‘herd immunity’... 😱

Or so it says here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-will-be-europes-worst-hit-by-coronavirus-study-predicts

Hoping @TiRed can cast some light (esp. wrt predictions...) as that’s some pretty ****ing scary shit...


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:01 pm
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We're both teachers with a 6yo only child at home who needs help with his work, keeping him occupied, getting him online for his school hangouts classes, all the while setting work, (I've done 5h of video classes today) so it's been great fun juggling all that. Can't wait to go for a ride...
Oh.

I’m learning that teachers are even shitter at anything IT related than I’d imagined.

Genuine lol remembering when our teacher would roll in the TV/VCR trolley to watch Look and Read and spend the entire class fiddling with the cables to no avail


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:05 pm
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http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:05 pm
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To see arrogant tossers trolling out the ignorant and defamatory tropes has hit a nerve.

I can see where you got your username from. 😃


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:05 pm
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I've just realised who Dominic Raab reminds me of (seen here with the rest of the cabinet).

Hi Dee Hi


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:11 pm
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@scotroutes: it’s not really any less scary in graphs and infographics.

I was wondering if they were ‘legit’ or click bait. My confirmation bias says if it’s passed the guardian it’s reasonably reliable but, you know, confirmation bias....


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:13 pm
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@metalheart I was going to ask exactly the same thing.
@TiRed why do you think the imhe data is so significantly different to all other studies so far?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:14 pm
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@metalheart - the graphs at least show that they've already massively overestimated for yesterday and today.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:15 pm
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The problem with deaths reported yesterday and today is we don’t actually know when they died. Or if they represent the true total number for the day (see the variation you’ve already reported for Scottish deaths outside of hospital for starters)...

ETA: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:21 pm
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I was quite disturbed when I found the wife playing scrabble with herself today

https://twitter.com/forest_fr1ends/status/1247601477402726400

read the words

https://twitter.com/funnypenny/status/1247603978680090629/photo/1


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:27 pm
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FINAL predictions are VERY sensitive to model assumptions during the ascending part of the curve. That has to be factored into ANY future prediction. It is still rather early for the UK, slightly early for Spain, although I can call Italy. My model uses forward information to inform on the UK trends.

I have just this evening added a final prediction statistic to the plots. For Italy this number is likely to be robust:

Italy 33000 (29400 to 37400) deaths

Spain will be worse. I think that is all I want to say tonight.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:29 pm
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How effective can remote learning be? Will they revisit/revise work from the summer term next September, or do they carry on in September as normal?

Remote learning will be shit, many are doing nothing, some are doing some and others are drowning in an attempt to do it all. A quarter of parents think we arent setting enough, another quarter think we arecsetting to much and the other half havent looked. Much like homework in general it will widen the gap between free school meal /pp kids and the rest.

Mostly I am expecting to pretty much take up where we left off. For current year 10's its going to be hard to get the course completed, maybe exams could be pushed back into the holidays next summer but it is going to be the same for all.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:33 pm
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it will widen the gap between free school meal /pp kids and the rest

Exactly this… entirely possible to teach remotely, but can’t do the parenting gap filling and social care that teachers in schools with a deprived intake perform on a daily basis in more normal times. Most people have no idea what many teachers do beyond what their own kids require of them.

Some kids won’t just fall behind while schools are shut, they will fall through the cracks completely. Hearing the efforts that some staff are going to in terms of contacting kids and parents with issues at the end of the last term was very telling, and they can simply can’t help in the way the normally do when seeing the kids every day.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:36 pm
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Once they are prised from the xbox pale and pasty in September it will be a shock to get back to formal learning. Concerned parent here.

Maybe a concerned parent could take action with regards to the pale and pasty Xbox scenario 😉


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:41 pm
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Enough of the teacher chat, lets not derail this thread, it's my main source of reasoned information thanks to TiRed and a few others.

Bugger off with the trolling.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:44 pm
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Thanks @TiRed. I was wondering if you had an opinion on whether they were reputable (not specifically whether you agreed, you’ve been pretty clear about accuracy all along).

(Not expecting an answer tonight, understand if you’d rather not comment)


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:44 pm
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Enough of the teacher chat, lets not derail this thread

Yeah, +1

You should have heard the bellendry that went on about dogs earlier.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:45 pm
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You should have heard the bellendry that went on about dogs earlier.

True, we need to get back to the temporary morgue chat, that was ace... 🤪


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:47 pm
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Spent much time in the private sector?

Yup, both as an employee (everything from cleaner to management) and businessman.

Why worry about exams? In France Madame's students are just being handed their Brevet or Baccalaureat based on the first two terms course work and marks. A simple solution that won't be so very different from what the exam results would have been based of years of experience. Pragamatism rules.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:54 pm
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True, we need to get back to the temporary morgue chat, that was ace… 🤪

Riveting it was. 6 containers. 40 bodies a container. Here’s a pic (TAKEN WHILE I WAS OUT FOR MY RUN!!)
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/ZRfgHkmP/B3262049-0-AF3-41-E3-B3-F8-38-A152127642.jp g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/ZRfgHkmP/B3262049-0-AF3-41-E3-B3-F8-38-A152127642.jp g"/> [/img][/url]


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:55 pm
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You should have heard the bellendry that went on about dogs earlier.

Anyone would think it had been a slow news day. Dogs were an inoffensive diversion.

Teachers, I'm going to go radical, it's better to be able to have them so they can back to teaching when the time comes rather than treat them expendable child care. Some might see children being set back others might observe the playing field has been levelled. Life can just knock you like that.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:58 pm
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Bit late to this recent party. Last few pages have taken a strange turn. The head at our sons school (he’s six) has been great and in my opinion very sensible. Basically told parents to just spend time with their kids and not to worry too much about the educating side of things. Strange times for young ones, so just chill and be there for them. I Knew there was a reason I liked her.

We’ve been doing bits of spelling, writing, maths, drawing and reading. If I try and teach my son he’ll be ****ed for life. His teacher is also being great and setting a few occasional little tasks etc. Again he’s reiterated the fact that the kids won’t turn in to idiots within the space of a couple of months.

Teachers are ace, so stop trolling them you bastards.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 9:58 pm
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@DD: as a LGO I was actually having temporary morgue chat on Sunday with an erstwhile colleague (I’ve a couple of tips for norf landan ifn yer interested...).

The official nomenclature is units (not bodies) pffaa bleedin amateur... 🤪

ETA: where did they get the 3ph supply from might I ask?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:00 pm
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The head at our sons school (he’s six)

Jeebus! That must have been some fast promotion!

I’ve a couple of tips for norf landan ifn yer interested…

Not a formal burial then?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:05 pm
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@scotroutes no formal burials at the moment, there are no big road building projects on near London at the moment, although maybe crossrail foundations might take a few


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:14 pm
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FINAL predictions are VERY sensitive to model assumptions during the ascending part of the curve. That has to be factored into ANY future prediction. It is still rather early for the UK, slightly early for Spain, although I can call Italy. My model uses forward information to inform on the UK trends.

I have just this evening added a final prediction statistic to the plots. For Italy this number is likely to be robust:

Italy 33000 (29400 to 37400) deaths

http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy   20,300 (19,500 to 22,000) deaths

That's a substantial difference!


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:15 pm
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maybe crossrail foundations might take a few

We only need to worry there's a government gardening initiative with free patios

DD - that's just a normal day to day hospital? Sobering.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:18 pm
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DD – that’s just a normal day to day hospital? Sobering.

No, it’s a temporary mortuary in the car park of the council depot next to our street. Buildings behind are the council offices.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:26 pm
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@scotroutes - the Italy data looks a bit strange to me. There remains a very high degree of uncertainty so such a narrow range seems counter-intuitive. All models are wrong but some of them are very, very useful and that one looks a bit off.

I'm not aware of how good that institution is but the US figures look low too. Does anyone know if they're reliable?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:32 pm
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Glad someone else looked at the imhe data and thought it looks odd. I can't see how the us deaths is predicted to be only 20k greater than the uk considering the massive difference in population size and even on the current infection and death levels. The us currently has double the number of deaths and they are just getting going.
admittedly the uk level is likely higher than that reported but still the numbers just seem off


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:35 pm
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That’s a substantial difference!

Quite. I was avoiding posting that to avoid making the obvious mistake off adding a further 30% to the uk figure... 🤷🏼‍♂️

Not a formal burial then?

I’d rather go sky burial/evisceration personally. But you’re right I could have chosen my words a bit better... 🤔


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:37 pm
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Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:38 pm
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The imhe data talks about a projected rate for 27th March, are these already a week (or longer) out of date?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:42 pm
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My children have been having real time structured school since day 1 of the school closure. They have to log on at 9 and a register is taken at each lesson. If work cant be completed on line (art for instance) then photos must be submitted. Children missing lessons are followed up by a pastoral care tutor. I know this happens because we had problems with a chromebook early on and it looked like she wsnt in the lesson. We had emails and a call to check what the situation was. They have breaks at normal time and homework. At the end of the first two weeks we got a detailed questionnaire to fill in on what they thought worked well and what didn't.

All this was possible because the school has been on the vanguard of the Chromebook for learning program for the last 5 years so it was just all ready to go. I guess this program or similar will be rather more popular in the future.

The school faced a lot of criticism when the programme was first launched whivh has steadily decreased over time but this has certainly mopped up any remnants. The teachers are obviously working their socks off too.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:43 pm
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Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre

I see red kites and buzzards out my kitchen window most days I’m in the house. I’m prepared to give it a bash...


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:44 pm
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Fair play, will keep any foxes happy too.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:46 pm
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Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre

Could be a new feature at Nant-yr-Arian, bit of diversification / alternative income stream for trail building


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:47 pm
 Kuco
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France bans daytime exercise https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52202700

Wonder if it will happen here due to people congregating? I hope not as its the only thing keeping me sane.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:57 pm
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Not really France is it, only banned in Paris to exercise during daytime. No mention for the rest of the country


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 10:59 pm
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http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy < 20,300 (19,500 to 22,000) deaths That’s a substantial difference!

Italy are already over 17,000 deaths, so those estimates seem very low


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:02 pm
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As above Paris, not France.  A few more situations like this one and things may tighten up in the UK...


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:04 pm
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Perhaps even a return to school a month earlier than normal in order to catch up

This seems the most reasonable course of action to me.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:08 pm
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Shes failed the attitude test, a dickette and to top it off a flat earther.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:10 pm
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Have you seen her other videos?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:12 pm
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Not sure a sky burial would work here, unless you do it at a raptor centre

Lammergeiers FTW


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:28 pm
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A Sky burial?

Black suit with blue cummerbund?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:31 pm
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@slowoldman it's proper car crash viewing. The one filmed in front of the hospital to prove that covid 19 is a hoax is unintentional comedy brilliance.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:31 pm
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20,300 (19,500 to 22,000)

Whatever the methodology, there is no possible means to achieve a precision of 5.5% on a PREDICTION of a stochastic process. My model has a residual of 11% and the prediction interval that I consider reasonable. I am 19/20 certain, based on data to date that this is model-predicted final tally. I haev a QC model to give a robust call on whether to believe the model. Italy passed, the others do not yet. So, sorry I remain skeptical. There is nothing on their site regarding methodology. Mine will be laid out with all code available.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:44 pm
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So, that IMHE data is all odd.

Ive just looked at Sweden, who have practically no lockdown at all.

IMHE Sweden data

They predict a max death rate of 134/day and a total of 4182. Versus 2800/day for the UK and a total of 66000.

It also says Sweden has 179 ITU beds, which I doubt.

Digging into its UK data it also says the UK has 799 ICU beds. Looking at NHS stats it seems in January we had 4200, nd Im sure we have converted more since.

They suggest we ran out of capacity on 29 Mar, so I guess that's why they have us rocketing.


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:44 pm
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I haven't really paid much attention to the predictions but looking at that IMHE site, are they really predicting UK deaths to be 3x those of Spain or Italy?


 
Posted : 07/04/2020 11:45 pm
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Is there any data for what Boris’s blowout (pubs are shutting tomoz let’s all get pissed one last time) caused?


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:05 am
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Well considering Swedish bars are still open........


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:08 am
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@TiRed - thanks for sharing your insights


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:08 am
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RustyNissanPrairie
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Is there any data for what Boris’s blowout (pubs are shutting tomoz let’s all get pissed one last time) caused?

I reckon theres a decent study in tracing everyone of the 250,000 people who went to Cheltenham & how they fared

null


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:13 am
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The IMHE data looks like complete bollocks. Garbage in, garbage out.

Let's stick to results (to date) from reliable sources.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:15 am
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Well considering Swedish bars are still open……..

https://twitter.com/szymonkopec/status/1246169347434975232

You just have to ask WTF? or so they know something we don't? Thier graphs will be interesting in to comming months.

Speaking of graphs, as @glennquagmire said, gargabge in, garbage out.

There's just not enough data at the moment, at least not pubically available data. And what data there is, is fuzzified by many many variables, how many tests are done? and to whoom?

All we've got right now is a very fuzzy indication and whilst the trends are probably trending vaguely with reality, there's simply not enough data for anyone to be making accertations.

Also whilst I'm on, lay off the teachers, let their parents take some responsibility for giving their offspring some daily structure to life and a bit of education.

People also seem focused on death rates...thats hard when so many are infected and theres no data really on recovery rates, other than those that become criticaly ill, well of course the death rate in the crittically ill demographic is going to be bad.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:32 am
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@glennquagmire ive been using this..it's sometimes up to 24 hrs out of date but it seems a bit more like a rational way of looking at it.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:44 am
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My LinkedIn feed is full of these data visualizations (ESRI are pushing them hard)  I like them in terms of map geekery but they don't provide much insight.

The data is often 2-3 days old

They are usually quite coarse, i.e. at country level (I have seen a Dutch one at 2 digit postal code)

What value do they provide? It's not like you can get in a car or plane and avoid a place as the developed world is mostly under restriction of movement.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 12:59 am
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@mattyfez thank you. The predictions and results seem to vary by quite a wide margin so I'll take a look at your link.

Ultimately fingers crossed we can get through this.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 1:04 am
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What value do they provide?

I agree it's low value data, but if you look at the lower yellow graph, the logmaritmic and daily infection increase... it tells a more interesting story than (deaths V's "X")


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 2:44 am
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According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn't work well enough. 🙁

That was my last (only) hope for some kind of summer. Seems clear we're gonna be inside 'till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.

This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.

(I can't find the story online so maybe I misheard. Fingers crossed...)


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 8:16 am
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The Govt did say the lockdown would be on/off when they started it 3 weeks ago. A lot has changed since then

Let's stay optimistic


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:12 am
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Let’s stay optimistic

Exactly. Stop posting depressive conjecture, you’re not helping yourself or others.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:16 am
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According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn’t work well enough.

I hope they do free returns!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/matt-hancock-35m-coronavirus-test-kits-are-on-the-way-to-the-nhs

Hancock constantly making promises he can't keep only undermines trust at the moment

Lots of companies are working on this so some sort of test should be along at some point (I read that some of the early kits tested in Italy only had a 30% success rate !) Was always a big ask that one's be available so soon.

Can't tell if Hancock is trying to be 'optimistic' or just is an habitual BSer


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:29 am
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Both seems plausible


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:35 am
 hels
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In fairness - Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises. And he is one of the better ones, although also in fairness, the bar isn't high.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:36 am
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Seems clear we’re gonna be inside ’till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.

That's squashing the sombrero. Translate a fast spike of 1000's of deaths in a short period into a manageable dome of 1000's of deaths over a longer period. The difference is time, the deaths stay the same (or slightly reduced hopefully) Until a treatment is available we're going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn't pessimistic, and pretending that it's not going to be this isn't optimism it's fairystories.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:39 am
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John Prine got to heaven I hope.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l0EiV423j0M


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:55 am
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Let’s stay optimistic

What I'm trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now - or at least the next week or so. Being optimistic leaves you open to disappointment, being pessimistic is depressing. But you can be curious about the world around you and the oddness of our situation.

There's a lot to be fascinated by: the way the media seems determined to prove that bad people are flouting the lockdown, even though mostly that doesn't seem to be the case. The odd tendency of people to tell other people what to do in BLOCK CAPITALS even though mostly those people are almost certainly doing it. Our media's fixation on painting the situation we're in as a 'war' as if brave fighters can somehow 'defeat' the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.

The way the extraordinary work of the NHS is suddenly centre stage and we realise, as a society, how we undervalue those people who are doing incredible work the rest of the time when they are still doing incredible work. Oh, and our relationship with death, which is right at the heart of this. Every year over half a million people die in the UK, but we've succeeded in somehow making it a near invisible process. Suddenly it's all too visible.

Sorry, that's the historian in me coming out I guess. Am at the tail-end of what, may or may not have been moderate-ish Covid-19 and have had lots of time to think in between the waves of coughing and weird chest tightness and high altitude breathing - think bivying at over 4000m when you're not properly acclimatised - elevated heart rate, depressed HRV and random deep muscle pains.

Anyway, I guess my point is that we have no individual control over what happens with the lockdown, all we can really do is follow the regs using a modicum of common sense, survive day-day-to-day and see what happens. YMMV.


 
Posted : 08/04/2020 9:56 am
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