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My experience as well. Had it once about 20yrs ago and lost about 3 weeks of my life. If you can get to the bathroom unaided you probably haven’t got “Flu”!
Likewise I had swine flu and I literally couldn't move for a couple of days. It took me a day to get from the bed to the sofa to call the doctor - i actually crawled and slept / passed out on the way. Most 'flu' is a cold.
have had flu in the past where I struggled to get out of bed for a week whereas Covid19 seems much milder (fever and cough) and not quite so incapacitating for many people.
I hope you stocked on supplies before getting the flu.
Where could the US patient who hasn’t had any confirmed exposure have got it from?Maybe a MAGA hat is a better bet than a face mask?
The US has only allowed testing on a very limited subset of people (people who had just returned from the impacted bits of china), plus the test they'd sent out had a flaw and didn't work. Apparently several of the states have stated they've treated a few respiratory cases as if they are covid 19, and when they have recovered discharged them.
I would assume it's in the population, and they're just as ****ed as the rest of us.
We stocked up on bog roll last night 😀
Regret cutting my beard now. It was massive, which isn’t on the chart so must’ve been super safe. Now it’s just a normal full beard and I’m doomed. If it’s a choice between clean shaven, stubble, a goatee, a moustache or death I’m choosing death.
You are not a realist, you are just somebody who puts the economy higher in the order of priority than peoples well being…
Donald? Is that you? PotUS on STW, amazing. 😁
I hope you stocked on supplies before getting the flu.
No need as there was no chance of lockdown, self isolation, massive disruption to anything other than myself. You are really not understanding this are you, but I am sure you will start to in a month or so...
i see they’ve renamed the hitler as the “toothbrush”
Apparently he trimmed it that way to fit under a gas mask in WW1 and never changed it, so there's a certain sense to it I suppose.
So instead, you economically bring the country to it’s knees. Sorry, but I’m a realist and accept that sooner or later a pandemic will sweep the globe. Given the global population it’s only a matter of time.
Spoken like a man in good health without any elderly relatives!
I do kind of agree though that it's inevitable that it's going to rip through the UK population sooner rather than later..
Most ‘flu’ is a cold
Yes, if you look at these reports, they don't seem to try and identify levels of flu. They use cold and flu like symptoms as reported to GPS, Hospitals etc. to give an idea of yearly changes.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
The mortality estimates at the end are quite interesting, but they ARE estimates. So my understanding is that we don't know how many people get flu in a year, Or how many people die from it.
(they're a bit long and dense and a bit too technical for laymen like me, so I may have missed something)
It seems like part of the containment plan is to get us through winter in the hope that warmer spring weather will reduce the likelihood of person to person transmission. Therefore wouldn’t it be better to make Froome, Cavendish etc sit outside by the pool all day rather than in an overly air-conditioned UAE hotel room??
make sure they wear riding kit by the pool, roadies are obsessive over their silly tan lines.
While I think it's all quite scary I do think there's a degree of panic being propogated by the media and with 'news' being everywhere now that escalates.
I've not seen any real explanation around WHY people should self isolate - which leads a lot of people to believe that people will be left to die in their houses, rather than actually the fact that they actually isolating themselves to contain spread. And the containment of spread being about keeping strain off emergency services, normal life, economy etc. What is trying to be prevented, I think, is half or more of the workforce being off work, rather than half or more of the workforce dying.
There's probably way more people got it. I've got a headache and feel a bit sinusy, bit of a cough etc. Generally under the weather? Cold? Covid19?
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
You are Thanos AICMFP
I’ve not seen any real explanation around WHY people should self isolate – which leads a lot of people to believe that people will be left to die in their houses, rather than actually the fact that they actually isolating themselves to contain spread.
To help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
The potential economic damage with such a knee jerk global response is far more concerning.
I’d just open the gates and let the thing run it’s course.
There'll probably be a point where you might as well just let that happen. Theres a tendency to be flippant about it because of the comparison to other big scares like SARS which everyone panicked about and seemed to come to nothing. Itr came to nothing on purpose. With SARS we (ie the world) achieved what we're trying to achieve here - successfully contained it and preventing it from spreading far enough to become a common and recurring illness.
If we hadn't managed that we'd have Seasonal Colds, Seasonal Flu and Seasonal SARS every year. But we don't have seasonal SARS and thats a good thing. It would be good to not have Seasonal COVID19 - as we're all (generally) reading this we're the demographic that it makes the most ill and moving towards the demographic that it kills.
It seems age is a big factor in the severity of symptoms. You'd usually expect the both the very young and the very old to be the worst effected by this kind of illness but very young children seem to suffer very little from infection. Instead the severity seems to increase incrementally with age - making it quite fatal forthe very old but but really more dangerous than is acceptable and more disruptively ill for a good chunk of he working population.
People being ill is a big deal economically but lots of people being ill in ways that required medical care really impacts on our progress medically. Many of the life improving and extending procedures and treatments we have today came about when the pressure on health services were relieved by cures for common conditions.
My mum had her hips replaced in the hospital where the hip replacement was invented. It's a former TB Isolation Hospital. TB used to be massive drain on health resources because it made lots of people very ill for a very long time. So much so hospitals were built and staffed for just that one illness. A cure and vaccine for TB suddenly left those wards empty and created the time and space for innovation and forward thinking rather then just trying to cope with a mass of people all with the same illness.
Similarly any Giles cartoon had a kid with measles somewhere in the picture. We dion't think of it as serious illness but if killed or seriously brain damaged 1 in 1000 which is a lot when every kid gets it.
The first impact if this gets out of control and infections become wide spread and regular will be.... the cancelling of all those treatments and procedures we've been able to enjoy in recent years - that have extended our working careers and made our lives longer and happier.
To help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
I thought it was to delay it spreading until the summer, which makes perfect sense. But I've only read that on here.
<blockquoteTo help prevent it spreading. I thought that had been very clear even amongst the media hype.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn't die. That's what I get from the media.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn’t die. That’s what I get from the media.
we are all going to die. it would be more convenient if it wasn't all at the same time.
Yes, but to what end. So that everyone doesn’t die. That’s what I get from the media.
No, so it isn’t spread onto vulnerable people.
I thought it was to delay it spreading until the summer, which makes perfect sense. But I’ve only read that on here.
Both that was has also been said in media sources, I’ve not read the latest PHE advice that’s tonight’s joy when I get to work.
Dp
Geneva motor show is cancelled.
fully expecting the big trade show in late march at excel I'm doing to be cancelled...
as we’re all (generally) reading this we’re the demographic that it makes the most ill and moving towards the demographic that it kills.
Eh? Is the stw demographic that old? Id assumed most were in their 40s/50s..the fatality ratio is 0.5% in that population.
The odds are in your favour if you are otherwise fit and healthy. Im More concerned about the less dramatic consequences of getting it, ie feeling shit for 3 weeks, having to self isolate and stay away from seeing my folks, missing my holiday...and most importantly of all, a reduction in my ftp after a hard winter on the turbo!
The politics of this is going to get very interesting. Voters like to see their leaders taking action in times of crisis, especially when it threatens them and their families. Johnson has shown little sign of that so far, and his hands-off non-interference way of working as demonstrated with the floods is not going to go down well. I reckon he's ****** either way. Do nothing it spreads, the NHS collapses and lots die, take massive interventionist action like shutting schools and public transport the economy collapses resulting in mass unemployment. A good time not to be PM I think 🙂
…and most importantly of all, a reduction in my ftp after a hard winter on the turbo
3 weeks of self isolation will give you plenty of time to work on that. Unless you're 15 so planning to stream not sufferfest and vigorously exercise some other way.
Do nothing it spreads, the NHS collapses and lots die, [predominantly in poor working class non tory voting areas]
I'm not seeing the problem for BJ to be honest
A bloke in our office came back from nothern italy feeling a bit ropey, self isolated, no-ones heard of him for a few days and now there is a coronavirus case in Swansea.. I'm mildy perturbed!
edit. turns out its not him.. there goes my two week isolation training camp!
A good time not to be PM I think 🙂
Depends on your point of view, it's probably a good time to be PM rather than anyone else
I think it's kinda f'd up that the media /we are talking about the economic impact, but I've had three projects cancelled/postponed by this.... Small projects, but no one wants to be part of the problem....
A friend of mine works at a agency. They had already built their booth in Barcelona before the fair was cancelled.
I think the economic effects of this will be more of a disruption than the deaths.
fully expecting the big trade show in late march at excel I’m doing to be cancelled…
Fully hoping the one I've got at NEC gets canned. But it won't because the target demographic is almost entirely "covid19? sorry mate, snowball's chance in hell" and the universe hates me almost as much as I hate trade shows.
theatlantic.com - You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
<gulp>
Yep, I think that’s a reasonable assumption.
What I don’t understand is why people don’t get some immunity from other Coronaviruses.
This towering genius just came on sky tv claiming he knew better than medics and that we should all start flying again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ppaulcharles?lang=en
Now on 5th consecutive day of chunky falls on all stock markets globally and futures markets don't show any bright spots.
There would usually have been a market bounce, possibly short-lived, in the midst of market falls but.....nothing at all.
Anyone buying into the market yet?
Waiting for both johnson, BoE, trump to comment.
EDIT - mark carney has commented about economic impact.
What I don’t understand is why people don’t get some immunity from other Coronaviruses.
Taking the 'common cold' coronavirus as an example, you do get immunity from the particular strain you contract, because your immune system adapts to recognise the mechanism it uses to bind to cells. But if a virus circulates in a large reservoir of hosts, then it is more likely it will mutate to subtly change the way it looks to your immune system. So at any one time, there could be a large number of strains, and you're only immune to the few of them you've encountered.
The point being that if Covid 19 gets into enough people, it can continue a worldwide cycle of infection, immunity and mutation, and keep rolling out new strains, whereas if it is restricted to only a smallish number (like SARS), then the likelihood of mutation, coupled with widespread onward transmission, is much smaller.
@martinhutch That all seems reasonable, however I was under the impression that there was some (though not loads) of cross-immunity for different strains of Flu; I’d assumed that Corona would be the same, especially if it’s circulating annually.
DOI not a virologist.
CPC and Screwfix have very limited supplies of face masks and non in stock locally wiuth a header saying max 5 per order.
Roads seem to be very quiet as is public transport locally, buses empty, but a lot of supermarket food delivery vans being driven badly around.
Also a few days ago a woman in a petrol station, getting agitated because she couldnt find any disposable gloves as she didnt want to handle the fuel nozzle handle, now just waiting for hand sanitizers to be installed on all shopping trolley handles, and shop doors.
CPC and Screwfix have very limited supplies of face masks and non in stock locally wiuth a header saying max 5 per order.
What kind of face masks though?
Unless they’re FFP3 or equivalent and properly fit tested, they’ll not help.
Unless they’re FFP3 or equivalent and properly fit tested, they’ll not help
As discussed a few pages back, even a hanky tied over your mouth and nose can have some* effect to stop you spreading it but since it's mostly rubbed into eyes and similar to contract it they'll not stop you getting it and nor will an FFP3 that doesn't cover your eyes, hands etc.
*some ranging from a tiny fraction of a small % to a small %
They'll help panicky panickers to stop panicking.
They’ll help panicky panickers to stop panicking
I thought you used brown paper bags for that?
They have found it in some pets in Hong Kong now:
When it makes the jump to sheep can we call it BAARS?
Interestingly the last piece on the guardian is much more positive about masks (though still only a 5 fold reduction in risk) saying they now believe it is predominantly spread via particles in the air rather than contact with particels that have landed on some surface.
No masks anywhere locally. I have some old DIY ones in the garage - worth putting on Ebay!? 🙂
the UAE tour has been cancelled 3 reams appear to have caught it
Ad in China telling Chinese to stop eating wild animals so that we don't need face masks https://imgur.com/gallery/T3FXGli
the UAE tour has been cancelled 3 reams appear to have caught it
It's spreading into paper now? #PreyForFlashheart
guardian is much more positive
Yeh I was just reading that.
The bit about it being ten times more deadly than normal seasonal flu was less positive.
I’m not sure I’ve seen any reliable data on infection rates?
they’ll not help
Wearing a mask reminds wearers not to stick their unwashed hands in mouth and eyes, which helps.
That all seems reasonable, however I was under the impression that there was some (though not loads) of cross-immunity for different strains of Flu; I’d assumed that Corona would be the same, especially if it’s circulating annually.
IANAV also.
There may be some cross-immunity in some patients, that hasn't been established yet. This could explain why some people are getting lesser symptoms, while others are getting seriously ill. It's described as a novel virus, though, so while it might have some similarities with other coronaviruses, it's clear that it has the capacity to cause significant illness in a decent chunk of the people who receive it.
If it recirculates, then certain strains will be more potent than others, but the point about mass recirculation is that it will be more likely to mutate into a strain which patients don't have any cross-immunity to. Those strains will then become the next season's coronavirus - Covid 20 - in much the same way that influenza does. Scientists look at the far east early in the year to see what strains are emerging and try to predict which ones will hit us the following winter. Flu vaccine is then produced for the 'best guess' strains.
Leadership?
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1233174683861897216/photo/1
or
https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1233174683861897216/photo/2
this was interesting
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1286457920300344
basically, as I read it, it's worse in Iran and China, as they've already got some antibodies for another coronavirus (either SARS or MERS).
The western world (and Africa/South America etc), with no real exposure to these, should only exhibit mild symptoms as the latest virus struggles to get into the cells.
Wearing a mask reminds wearers not to stick their unwashed hands in mouth and eyes,
I bet the loo roll shortage does a better job of that...
basically, as I read it, it’s worse in Iran and China, as they’ve already got some antibodies for another coronavirus (either SARS or MERS).
The western world (and Africa/South America etc), with no real exposure to these, should only exhibit mild symptoms as the latest virus struggles to get into the cells.
Interesting. The suggestion is that earlier exposure to similar coronaviruses has primed the immune system and triggered a massive over-reaction to COVID 19. Basically massive and sustained inflammation, which isn't great news in your lungs, or anywhere else.
The mystery has been why whole households were dying in Hubei, young and old, but the same thing has not been happening elsewhere.
My understanding is that it will become endemic too, lets just hope the isolation advice slows it down enough so that by the time it's endemic we have a vaccine.
First british death from diamond princess quarantined ship and now boris has removed his head from doms arse and tabled a cobra meeting on monday to deal with virus
The bit about it being ten times more deadly than normal seasonal flu was less positive.
The figures quoted in that Guardian don't actually support what the journalist is claiming.
The biggest expo in my calendar Munich High End Audio Show (May) has just been cancelled.
We time all our product releases around it as do many other audio companies.
Good that they announced early but still a bit of a shock.
Munich High End Audio Show (May)
That's an odd acronym for that.
I though mortality in Italy was roughly aligned with China? This not the case?
Just out of curiosity, if you were asthmatic how scared would you be?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ table towards the bottom on comorbidities.
Suggests the mortality rate is higher for those with chronic respority disease - would asthma fall under that? I'd imagine the the comorbidities correlate closely with the diseases that impact the elderly tho.
mortality in Italy
as with all these, they're measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don't know they've got it, think they've got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
The only research i could find on it so far doesn't show an undue link to asthma - i'm probably wrong above calling it a chronic respority disease as it would count as an allergy.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/all.14238
as with all these, they’re measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don’t know they’ve got it, think they’ve got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
Yes, but until we can control for differences in diagnosis - it’s probably pertinent to assume that mortality rates between the two countries are broadly comparable.
It will be interesting, considering the comorbidity risk factors - whether fat America fairs better or worse than China where pollution and smoking damaged lungs are more common.
Remember hearing an interview* with Alan Greenspan on R4, where he explained why recessions are an inevitability. One of the reasons he gave was while we may learn from the cause of the last recession, it will always be something else, unforeseen that causes the next.
*if memory serves me right, a few months before the last recession
as with all these, they’re measuring mortality of dead versus people they know who have it.
there will be hundreds of people who don’t know they’ve got it, think they’ve got a cold or flu, or are completely asymptomatic. Therefore the ratio should (should!) be lower than the official one
Conversely, there is a lag between positive tests and deaths, as folk will present but die some days later. So simply comparing current case numbers with total deaths may be misleading.
Ewan, that study is for acquisition of the virus - ie, does having asthma make you more likely to catch it, not whether you are more likely to die from it.
I would include asthma under the 'respiratory disease' umbrella, for the simple reason that this is classification when they are deciding who gets a free flu jab. Incidentally if you're asthmatic and haven't had a flu jab, go and get one, as flu is still circulating and having the jab could reduce the overall burden on the NHS if this kicks off. Pneumococcal vaccine isn't a bad idea, as well. It would be grimly ironic if we had a coronavirus epidemic but you die from preventable influenza complications because your local hospital is swamped with covid 19 cases.
Suggests the mortality rate is higher for those with chronic respority disease – would asthma fall under that? I’d imagine the the comorbidities correlate closely with the diseases that impact the elderly tho.
According to the WHO website - maybe?
Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are diseases of the airways and other structures of the lung. Some of the most common are chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, occupational lung diseases and pulmonary hypertension.
As Tim says, it's just a portacabin with no floor over a well
Things getting real at work
Alan Greenspan - vey good at commenting after the event; god knows why he served so many terms as Fed chairman.
As for recession, no indication of negative growth - yet - so....no.
Remember hearing an interview* with Alan Greenspan on R4, where he explained why recessions are an inevitability. One of the reasons he gave was while we may learn from the cause of the last recession, it will always be something else, unforeseen that causes the next.
*if memory serves me right, a few months before the last recession
My theory about recessions is that they're destructive but necessary, like Bush Fires.
We (humans) think we're so clever we can live without downsides, but the Law of Unintended Consequences proves us wrong time and time again. We skipped at least 1, but probably 2 recessions between the 90s and the great recession and so much greed built up when it did happen it was massive and we really couldn't handle a natural correction so we spread it over a decade or more.
There's an argument I suppose to say that this is no different, we reached the point when loads of diseases that would have killed off the sick, weak and old years ago don't anymore - the unintended consequence is over-population and an ageing population we really don't know how to care for if the trend continues. Maybe corona-virus is the Great Recession for population? Not a nice thought I know.
Ironically perhaps, the two coincide, the great recession lead to austerity and a NHS already stretched and probably unable to cope with an epidemic. It's almost poetic.
Good post MartinHutch thanks. I've just booked myself and wife to get the Pneumococcal vaccine at the local boots, probably a waste of money but that's ok. As someone who is immunosuppressed after B cell lymphoma treatment this is starting to get concerning.
@binners so let me get this straight MUFC supporter's plan to not be beaten by Liverpool:
1)hope our team plays better
2)if that doesn't work, get a wee Irish kid to write a letter to klop.
3)70 million dead world wide
I take it plan 4 is embed a couple of US marines in Turkish in the military in Syria and wait for a Russian airstrike to start world war 3 and end all life on earth?
I take it plan 4 is embed a couple of US marines in Turkish in the military in Syria and wait for a Russian airstrike to start world war 3 and end all life on earth?
You'll win nothing with cockroaches.
Headlines from Saturday's papers.... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-51684050
What a complete bag of bollocks.
Deaths likely to be minimal; economic shock will not be minimal.
One potential upside is that it will threaten trump's re-election campaign; it's worth a few deaths for him not to be the-elected.
Did a "pandemic prep" shop a couple of days back for medical stuff (paracetamol,ibuprofen etc) and antibac stuff.
Just got back from a late night asda food shop. Dry and tinned goods etc. This virus don't kill many (I hope) but it's absolutely going to hit supply chains as workers self isolate or look after their family. That's what I'm trying to mitigate.
The store was out of all antibac cleaning products and alcohol hands gels. Not really surprised at that as people are simply buying (and hopefully using) what the government and media have recommended. Good news. I'd already bought the stuff so didn't need it anyway.
We are now sorted for food and basic meds together with toilet rolls and tissues blah,blah. I feel a bit stupid buying it all but it won't go so waste. Most will get used in time anyway, the rest can go to food banks if necessary.
To be honest I feel a bit relieved in knowing my little bubble is as prepared as it can be.
My other focus is to stop the virus getting into the house if I can as I care for my 90 year old mother. That's a huge concern. Fortunately I have a few ideas on that one.
Again,hopefully I'm just a colossal prat and wasted time and money on stuff I won't need. Hope so.
When bog roll supplies run out, use yesterday's newspapers - many of which are, correctly, described as arse-wipes.
This virus don’t kill many (I hope) but it’s absolutely going to hit supply chains as workers self isolate or look after their family. That’s what I’m trying to mitigate.
That is exactly what I did 4 weeks ago (all non perishables and all will get used over next 6 months anyway so just see it as shopping in advance).
All very well thinking you can still get food delivered if you are self isolated but not if the people driving the van, people working in the food distribution etc,. are also self isolated or in lockdown.
Get ready to be called a Pillock...
My wife picked up a bunch of non-perishable stuff yesterday ... what struck me is it was just like the shop my folks did when I was a kid and we only went to the supermarket once a month. It's actually a pretty sensible way to shop.
She did say there was lots of people in masks with full trolleys though and no antibacterial products.