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From that Cambridge Virologist mentioned before (bottom p.161):
I take great umbrage at the lengths of time you are meant to be infectious for because it is just not true. Nine days is nonsense. You don’t excrete a live virus that long.
I don't understand this, don't want to be doubting a Cambridge professor and all, but if the virus was only infectious for a few days prior to symptoms then how come theres such high numbers of health care workers infected once the patient reaches the ward potentially weeks after initial infection? This is like saying it's just a coincidence and that doctors are coming into contact with infection from elsewhere, surely not... or is she saying that infection from a 'live' virus is different from infection from a patients cell production?
Add to the time the person is secreteing live virus the time the virus will survive on/in them. If it can survice three days on an inert surface I'd expect at least that on a warm, humid human.
Just because people are experts doessn't mean one or two of them don't have rogue opinions.
I don’t understand this, don’t want to be doubting a Cambridge professor and all, but if the virus was only infectious for a few days prior to symptoms then how come theres such high numbers of health care workers infected once the patient reaches the ward potentially weeks after initial infection?
Yup, plus wouldn't the UK's health advisers already know the duration a virus remains 'live' in the body? On the other hand she ought to know her stuff. I'd like a definitive answer.
Add to the time the person is secreteing live virus the time the virus will survive on/in them.
Could be that. The last cough with live virus plus a few days with the virus living on their clothes/skin/hair makes 7-9 days give or take. Plus they probably take the longer 'child' estimate as their initial estimate for everyone, just to keep it simple.
Also we don't know what detail or nuance that newspaper left out of her comments.
Still be nice to have a definitive answer, wonder if the Prof is on twitter...
Edukator
Member
Like Kerley I’ve noted that the UK is closely tracking Italy (add another day to Kerley’s list and they are both around 1800). Another striking similarity is that lockdown in Italy took place at about 400 dead on 9/3/2020 and in the UK on 23-24/3/2020 at about the same number.
They reckon we are tracking france. Valance said yesteeday,
Italian deaths are under 10% for three days running now.
UK numbers around 20% for past three days. This is exactly where Italy was around two weeks back, both for magnitude and rate of change.
We might well also be tracking France.
France probably sounds less scary to the general public because Covid-19 has made a lot less dead people there - so far.
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Reliant on testing admittedly
They, Seosahm? Valance is wrong. France locked down after less than half the deaths of either the UK or Italy after a period of volontary confinement that had been fairly well followed. The geographical dispersion was and isn't the same. Check out TiRed's (conservative not frightening) estimates on page 153, the UK is on a steeper curve than France.
[url= https://i.postimg.cc/9Fs6v9Ct/0232-CCC1-0-E5-F-44-D1-BCE3-6-DF44-B621210.pn g" target="_blank">https://i.postimg.cc/9Fs6v9Ct/0232-CCC1-0-E5-F-44-D1-BCE3-6-DF44-B621210.pn g"/> [/img][/url]
Up to 13:00 today
All assumes that site is accurate
The geographical dispersion was and isn’t the same.
Ed
Are you saying it was the same but has since changed and now isn’t the same?
Edukator
Member
They, Seosahm? Valance is wrong. France locked down after less than half the deaths of either the UK or Italy after a period of volontary confinement that had been fairly well followed. The geographical dispersion was and isn’t the same. Check out TiRed’s (conservative not frightening) estimates on page 153, the UK is on a steeper curve than France.
Why do you have such a hardon for predicting doom in the uk?
Do you even notice your bias?
Some countires ahve been fairly successful in limiting the spread with a faster geographical lockdown in response to high incidences in some areas. France initially had a hot spot in the East and the exodus in response to that was from Paris which at the time wasn't too badly affected.
In Wuhan the province was locked down fairly quickly, In Italy the flight was from Lombardie which was the area hardest hit to the rest of Itlay. In Spain the flight was from Madrid, again the hardest hit, in the UK... You tell me, you people have seen it first hand. I've just noted the remarkably even per capita spread across the UK based on numbers for towns.
There are still relatively unaffected areas in France and that doesn't seem to be the case in the UK as it spread very quickly from the points of entry.
The main worry for France is 93, with its very high population density and a whole load of social issues that are making enforcement of confinement harder than eleswhere.
I can’t relate this numbers to the numbers I’ve found. You’ve got us level pegging on day 18 but Italy had twice as many deaths per day at day 18 compared to us and their graph was shooting skywards. We’re on less than half the deaths per day and have decreased 4 days in a row.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-3-day-average
…and a plea. When people post numbers on this thread (or online in general) please link to the source! It saves everyone a load of googling and saves people asking (and answering) questions.
quite right I should have added source
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
My counts started at day of 10 deaths (10 is a bit arbitrary but better than 0) in each country day 0 In UK was March 12th
In Italy was Feb 25th, by 18 days later in UK (mar 30) 1408 deaths in Italy (mar 14) 1441 deaths
If we add in the 40 extra who died at home then Uk is at 1448
Why do you have such a hardon for predicting doom in the uk?
Do you even notice your bias?
If you read back you'l find I ignored the thread for a long time then entered it when the "herd" aprroach was in vogue - to argue against and encourage STWers to isolate and on a personal level at least protect themselves and their families.
I encouraged people to take their kids out of school - they eventually shut
I denounced the pub going activity as foolish - they eventually shut
I described the National Trust free opening to encourage the use of its parks and gardens as "****ing ridiculous" - they soon shut
Now the UK has adopted similar tactics to most other countries (the Swedes are still ****ing stupid IMO) I'm a whole lot less critical of the UK.
The lack of an early lockdown will have consequences though. There's no "hardon" about it, that's just in your head. I'm just disagreeing with Valance's predictions and comparison with France when the more obvious comparison is with Italy, we'll see who's right soon enough. I'm not the only one making the comparison with Italy, Kerly and Mrmonkfinger have pointed out the same and TiRed's predictions suggest France may roll over before the UK.
I'm being objective, Seosahm, you're making a personal attack as you did a few pages ago. I'm the one being proved right in case you hadn't noticed.
In Wuhan the province was locked down fairly quickly, In Italy the flight was from Lombardie which was the area hardest hit to the rest of Itlay. In Spain the flight was from Madrid, again the hardest hit, in the UK… You tell me, you people have seen it first hand. I’ve just noted the remarkably even per capita spread across the UK based on numbers for towns.
In the early days the maps by region had London with a very low case count.
Especially when you consider that Europes busiest airport spits you straight out onto the tube.
France was Mar 06 for 10 deaths 18 days later France was on 1331
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
my measure is obviously very crude but I dont see massive difference compared to UK or Italy tbh (& loads of potential for error base don how deaths are recorded between countries ie was covid cause or comorbidity)
The difference is which measures were taken and when, Kimbers, and the geographical distibution and dispersion patterns alluded to above. If you are looking for a predictive model I think Italy is better than France, whichever comparison you chose it's sobering in that despite lockdowns the numbers rise and both France and Italy prove peak is a long long way from lockdown. Time will tell.
Isn’t that 19 days later Kimbers?
yeah loads of variables
were we still seeing things like this in Italy & France at similar point in 'lockdown'
https://twitter.com/itvlondon/status/1244910161917022208
piemonster
Subscriber
Isn’t that 19 days later Kimbers?
yes, sorry!
edit actually 10th death was a day later - 9 deaths on 6th, 16 on 7th
can we split the difference?
The Metro pictures were nothing like that Kimbers. I spent an hour touring France on webcams a few days ago and the level of confinement was immediately very high, mainly I think because the number of types of business told to close was broader. Berlin metro stations are equally dead. Anomolies noted by French media were scrums to get into supermarkets in densly populated areas and youths playing cat and mouse with the police in some areas.
yeah loads of variables
Huge range really.
But it’s easy to find other vectors to counter where things might help slow the spread in the U.K.
My Italian friends have very close knit family units with high frequency contact and greetings usually involve contact, often to the face.
London has a huge underground network of Corona Tubes!
Prof Jim Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and professor of structural biology, Oxford University, urged the government to be more consistent in the data it provides. “Some of the NHS trusts reporting deaths in today’s NHS press release are apparently counting deaths over several days, other trusts for one day. Some trusts stop at the 29th [March], other trusts report deaths on the 30th. It is unclear how these numbers relate to the overall daily number from the UK government,” he said.
“However, it does appear deaths from previous days are only now being reported. This will have artificially decreased the previous daily totals and have increased today’s totals. Scientists have consistently warned that we cannot judge our progress in curbing the epidemic by a single day’s reported number of deaths.”
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said the daily figures should be treated with caution but they suggest the UK is two weeks behind Italy.
I lasted 5 hours at home last night before bouncing back to COVID ward via A&E.
Really not having much fun but no reason to be too concerned, just frustratingly low o2 levels. Likely to be here for at least a couple more days
did tell you it was too early to smash it on the turbo! 😉
sorry to hear that frank
we're all rooting for you!
I think Edukator has a point. The apparent downturn in the numbers could instill complacency. Fwiw a friend in Modena was imploring me to stay indoors long before we got locked down on the 15th and I just waved it off as scaremongering.
Everything she told me (more or less the self same doom that Edukator is peddling) came to pass in pretty short order.
I'm wondering if people are worrying less about this than they ought to.
I’m wondering if people are worrying less about this than they ought to.
IME
Some aren’t worried enough
Some are striking a reasonable balance
Some are too worried, to the point mental health is deteriorating. For some that’s enough to be a serious risk in itself
I think I started actively distancing others (more than usual) 9th March, WFH started a little before then too.
I encouraged people to take their kids out of school – they eventually shut
I denounced the pub going activity as foolish – they eventually shut
I described the National Trust free opening to encourage the use of its parks and gardens as “**** ridiculous” – they soon shut
There we got edukator saved the uk ,these things weren't going to happen anyhow....
I also find it curious that people still go on as if they defeated the 'herd immunity' concept. It never was a main goal, the main goal has always been to protect the nhs from collapse.
The idea that 'herd immunity has been debunked is daft aswell. It's still a valid concept for consideration going forward and needs to be, all ideas are still in the table at this point, unless a vaccine appears.
Which I wouldn't bet my house on, far as I know there's never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
There we got edukator saved the uk ,these things weren’t going to happen anyhow
I'm not a famous enough influencer to save the UK but along with half a dozen other active STWers I might have contributed to a few STWers being a bit more careful and perhaps not exposing themselves to the virus. Which if you think about it means I have the best interests of Brits (or at least the ones who read STW) at heart.
Which I wouldn’t bet my house on, far as I know there’s never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
SARS / MERS is that because it is technically challenging or because of a lack social imperative?
seosamh77
SubscriberI also find it curious that people still go on as if they defeated the ‘herd immunity’ concept. It never was a main goal, the main goal has always been to protect the nhs from collapse.
The idea that ‘herd immunity has been debunked is daft aswell. It’ll still a valid concept going forward and needs to be, all ideas are still in the table at this point, unless a vaccine appears.
Which I wouldn’t bet my house on, far as I know there’s never been a corona vaccine? There was none for SARS are MERS anyhow..
Posted 3 minutes ago
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I've copied the whole post so people don't have to go back a page to find it, and I'll answer paragraph by paragraph:
The objective in most places had been to limit the number of excess deaths and limiting cases to the numbers the NHS can cope with in intensive care is the best way of doing that.
The herd immunity approach will result in a high number of excess deaths, you might be happy with that. If my 22-year-old son had that attitude I'd understand, he doesn't, he cares about others and accepts that he might be a bit economically poorer, maybe.
There might not be a corona vaccine but there will be treatment protocols, there will be more ventilators made, there might be a vaccine that boosts the immune system even if it doesn't stop infection. There are 39 molecules currently under investigation. A lockdown buys time and that time will be used wisely.
A lockdown buys time and that time will be used wisely.
A lockdown that was always going to happen.
oldagedpredator
SARS / MERS is that because it is technically challenging or because of a lack social imperative?
Couldn't tell you. But even if it does happen, it's 12-18 months away, we aren't staying in lockdown for that long.
If you have a gander a this table from yesterdays imperial report, it's entirely possible that the likes of spain and italy are already well on their way to a herd immunity approach anyway whether they like it or not, so I think the idea will come back longer this goes. The speed of the spread is dictating that we'll not stop it before the 12-18months anyway.
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Don't know about you, but the like of China, I'm very suspicious about their numbers and that they have actually stopped it.
Feels like you’re piling on Ed now… and he hasn’t said anything remotely worthy of that, has he?
I agree that the “green shoots” line risks being a poor message to communicate at this point, even though it came with strong caveats. Spending a weekend talking about herd immunity was also poor messaging, given what we’d already seen and should have learnt from other countries at that point.
the herd immunity strategy (that was very much the governments plan & cummings baby at one point-*see link) struggles because you only get immunity from other coronaviruses for 6-8 months & its assumed itll be the same for this
It also means a huge number of deaths
*paywall but register for free artiles https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-ten-days-that-shook-britain-and-changed-the-nation-for-ever-spz6sc9vb
scotroutes
Subscriber@frankconway – are you one of “the usual antagonists”?
Posted 3 minutes ago
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Nothing on-topic to add, Scotroutes, you're just here to antagonise is the only plausible explanation.
Rather than attack the poster, try taking on the facts, the arguments presented and the logic. You'll fail as usual.
Bunch of amateurs 😉 . I fitted a non-linear mixed-effects Gompertz growth model to the global data, all rebased to 8 deaths on common time. Most country posterior predictions fit this data well. But other functions will also fit the data. The model predicts UK and global epidemic size, but many functions will describe this early exponential growth, e.g.,
log(D) = a0 + a1D + a2D*D + ...
I also fitted a much more complex model to global data based on lagged time for cases and deaths. This model is good for short-term predictions, including possible trends of daily ups and downs. Just don't ask for a month away. They agree well out to 7d, and I am happy with the Gompertz model to two weeks at the moment.
It is, however, much too early to call epidemic size, but I think I feel happy about calling the order of severity (Spain looks like the loser). I can also say with confidence that if daily deaths have not started to decline properly by mid-May, then that would not be a Good Thing(R). That is all I am going to predict.
Don't get me started on the Oxford paper. Get me a some proper data!
[TL:DR] I throw a ball for the dog. Now I think it will be parabola because gravity. BNut what if it wasn't quite the inverse square law, it was actually a little bit different. I might get a good estimate of climb, but overall hight and how far the dog runs might be hard to estimate.
That is where we are at the moment. Believe nothing else.
A lockdown that was always going to happen.
If it was always going to happen, why didn't it happen earlier?
Re. the comment earlier that lockdown in Italy began after 400 deaths. The FT graphs say it was after 800. Also looking at the case trajectories the US is looking really bad.
the herd immunity strategy (that was very much the governments plan & cummings baby at one point-*see link) struggles because you only get immunity from other coronaviruses for 6-8 months & its assumed itll be the same for this
It also means a huge number of deaths
I don't think there is a specific tactic called 'herd immunity'. Herd immunity is a thing that happens eventually, and needs to happen either naturally or by vaccine. Because the virus isn't going away. What you lot are talking about is the 'sod it' approach which is not what anyone really advocated, certainly not me.
slowoldman
If it was always going to happen, why didn’t it happen earlier?
Fear that if they lockdown too early the lockdown would get lifted too early.
Which is still a major factor at the minute. How long do people think we'll live like this? I'm entirely unsure myself, 3 weeks, 6 week, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months?
I haven't a clue.
If it was always going to happen, why didn’t it happen earlier?
Because it's easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept - ramping it up in stages - and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
Fear that if they lockdown too early the lockdown would get lifted too early.
Yep - that too. Starting off saying that the lockdown would last 6-9 months would cause panic buying on an even larger scale and more reluctance on the part of the public to accept it.
I don’t think there is a specific tactic called ‘herd immunity’.
That's a difficult one. The channel 4 - think it was channel 4 - special on C-19 had a government person on who very much seemed to be saying that was the approach. This was about the 13th of March.
Whatever you're model is, TiRed, it's doing pretty well so far, even if only for 7 days.
The thing about virus survival time got me thinking about bacteria and virus survival in chlorinated water during and after treatment. It was generally very short as hyperchloirnation in the treatment plants killed everything in the water before the chlorine level was reduced again before distribution. However sometimes despite the chlorination equipment working perfectly the little beasties got through, usually when there were problems forming a floc or a filter breakthrough. The bacteria or viruses survived because they were protected in the micro particles or unfiltered floc. And once into distibution at potable chlorine levels they survived for a long time, long enough to be picked up in samples much further down the distribution system.
So in big drops from a sneeze the virus would remain acitve for hours if not days.
Because it’s easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept – ramping it up in stages – and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
Yeah keep seeing people say this, but not seen any proof,
blinded by our lack of testing, ramping it up in stages, simply gave the virus time to gain an even bigger foothold
just sounds like people making excuses for the government lacking the courage to do what needed to be done (times article indicates cummings was prioritising economy over lives)
Yep – that too. Starting off saying that the lockdown would last 6-9 months would cause panic buying on an even larger scale and more reluctance on the part of the public to accept it.
and Hancock saying they only started talking to supermarkets 3 weeks ago about stock levels shows they possibly werent intending & certainly not planning for it
Slowoldman:
I got the Italian lockdown date of 9pm 9/3/2020 from here:
The deaths declared at the time were about 400, you can check that against worldometers or the EU site.
Because it’s easier to achieve when you have the public on-side. That needed a gentle introduction to the concept – ramping it up in stages – and a few deaths to make it seem like the correct thing to do.
I'm not sure nudge is the whole story, it's probably mixed up with not thinking it could get here as quick, trying not to crash the economy by throwing out the anchors, thinking it would pass us by and best not over react.
The public at large did not seem to have a clear idea there was an imminent threat.
Whalley Bridge Dam last year - evacuate now dam is about but burst - 99.9% of population, OK clear risk to life and limb, sod you kitty cat we're off.
Would the shock have been greater if we had gone straight corralling the population - who knows. If we did it and the rest of the world didn't react - it all passed us by then we've just torpedoed the economy.
I agree that the “green shoots” line risks being a poor message to communicate at this point, even though it came with strong caveats.
Just heard that - what a nob !
Back on the numbers - the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)? Am I right in assuming there is a lag on death and infection figures - todays infection figures are from the weekend of the 21st but the deaths are from the week prior?
Back on the numbers – the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)?
This is the one I'm finding it hardest to get a consistent view on other than it seems to be getting longer. A few weeks back we were being told 3-6 days from infection to symptoms, another 5-7 to hospitalisation and another 4 to death. So about 17 days. I linked an article in the Birmingham mail earlier today a page or so back with a doctor claiming his cases dying today were infected a month back. Each report seems to extend the timeline which is bad news for when we can expect peak and a return to normal.
I’m not sure nudge is the whole story, it’s probably mixed up with not thinking it could get here as quick, trying not to crash the economy by throwing out the anchors, thinking it would pass us by and best not over react.
yeah the nudge theory doesnt hold when you look at the contradictory statements coming from different ministers & parts of government about isolation, lockdown & distancing the farce over parks being open, construction workers being told to stay working and the repeated failure to ramp up testing
eve now the WHO say you should stay isolated for 14 days but Johnson plans to be back out after 7!?!
On top of that youve got influential (with the government) clowns like Toby Young saying lockdown should be ended asap coz its only old people thats gonna die
Damn foreign media, eh?
surely our government have this info too?
https://matadornetwork.com/read/cell-phone-data-reveals-americans-staying-home-ones-arent/
+1 to pretty much what seosamh77, molegrips and scotroutes are saying.
The virus isn't going to go away. There are only two defences, herd immunity or we all stay locked up forever. There are two ways of getting herd immunity: vaccine or a significant chunk of the popultion catching CV. I'll offer a clue as to which of the two approaches is being taken worldwide: There is no vaccine.
It's pretty clear that until a vaccine comes along or there's an antibody test every country in the world is going to have to keep turning on and off the tap letting people get it at a rate that allows their hospitals to keep up. (One other way that could end is if people of a country somewhere get fed up and just largely ignore the restrictions and it becomes utterly unenforceable. I'm sure that day will come for somewhere. Maybe not today but after a summer of being cooped up???)
Many thanks, that cracked it. The worldometer site has an overview page – showing 381 but when you follow the uk link it takes you to the 3 day average of 180 and the 381 number is absent! That’s the explanation.
To save everyone else the bother:
The 381 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/The UK page with the 180 number is here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
/blockquote>Just answering my own question about death numbers from earlier: According to R4 PM the 381 number included backlog from previous days. So that's the UK death number for today explained. The apparent downturn in new infection numbers in multiple countries and the downturn in death rates in multiple countries haven't been explained yet. Maybe it really is the end of the first hump. (Although the cynic in me wonders if everywhere tried to get as many deaths/infections through in the March numbers to make April look better...)
So what is the reason for Spain’s outlier place in the rankings? I get Italy being hit first so offguard, but why is Spain worse than all the rest?
surely our government have this info too?
Related but different
I half caught something on the way to the Zwift that sounded like the government was looking on a close contact app. If you meet an infected person it pings up and tells you and your contacts to isolate.
I forget how I came to see this - apologies if it's bindun:
Back on the numbers – the figures we are getting now for deaths and infections relate to roughly which date(s)? Am I right in assuming there is a lag on death and infection figures – todays infection figures are from the weekend of the 21st but the deaths are from the week prior?
As a crude measure take the positive test cases from 7 days ago, and ~25% of those will unfortunately turn into deaths today, for the UK.
Now take that with a pinch of salt, as it’s very crude, but on that basis this time next week, we could be looking at 700 deaths in a day.
So what is the reason for Spain’s outlier place in the rankings? I get Italy being hit first so offguard, but why is Spain worse than all the rest?
Various reasons:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis
This one is a bit of a hobby horse for me but if you fancy a look at early stages of response to a virus.
I’m sure that day will come for somewhere.
Fairly terrifying when you see the like of this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52086274
In Spain the central government has mismanaged and reacted late every step of the way; if they had any self-respect they would resign and abandon public life after this crisis.
Fairly terrifying when you see the like of this.
Modi seems to have terribly miscalculated, especially when India has one of the the largest internal migrant populations in the world, nearly 40% of the country
Tobias Ellwood MP & deserves an award for his epic use of whataboutery on Newsnight!
Given the horrific consequences of Covid-19 for the developed world, what are the implications for war torn countries like Yemen, Syria and Palestine, who in many respects find themselves in the state they're in due to the actions (or inaction) of our government(s)?
What if you don't have a home to stay in?
Or worse still, the aggressors essentially use Coronavirus as a weapon on a civilian population...
We even have radio presenters bragging about how they coughed their way around the supermarket, but its fine because they'd already isolated for 7 days
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1245075228381904897
This time next week, we could be looking at 700 deaths in a day.
Not in my prediction interval (your's is too high). As I have previously stated, less than 3000 (on today's model prediction) total this time next week would be good news. I only post what I would like it for good news.
700 a day in a week would be bang on the italy curve by my somewhat less rigorous method of aligning 2 graphs!
youd hope that weve had enough time to prepare better for the influx so could get that down, what Im not convinced is that weve locked down soon enough & sorted the social distancing thing, so seeing less deaths due to overwhelmed hospitals than in italy but wider spread of disease
Airbus UK have started making ventilators. 3 production lines already established with a 4th possibly to start next week. The lines will be running 24/7.
I've been offered the chance to join the 4th line if it goes ahead and I want to help, but don't know how given the kids are now at home and my wife is also working...arggh!
It’d be a good thing to do if you can Daffy, I’m itching to volunteer with the NHS in Scotland.
Parents are well isolated, no kids, can’t be far off being furloughed/redundant/reduced hours as well.
See how that looks after it updates today.