Forum menu
While the fatality rate is never nice the biggest impact will be the closing down of everything.
No food/supplies delivered to shops, no people working in shops to sell the very limited food/supplies. That goes for animal foods as well as humans for anyone that has animals.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go...
Now that ^ seems a bit OTT to me. However, my wife works in the school in Brighton where a teacher has just gone into isolation due to being in close contact with another suspected case. Next to no kids in today. I'm seriously thinking of not visiting my elderly parents for a few weeks.
And next year there’ll be a vaccine.
There is no vaccine for SARS.
SARS was 2004.
Don't count on there being a vaccine for this one any time soon.
Apparently everyone is properly flapping. You might end up being right Kerley
My thoughts so far
- there is no conspiracy, the virus wasn't made in a lab but a result of humans encroaching into the forests and having contact with certain species carrying certain viruses for the first time
- it's a very frightening situation overall. the virus is asymptomatic, has a long incubation period, and is highly infectious. it also transmits in all climate conditions
- containment would never have worked in the first place, this is not like sars which could only be transmitted in certain circumstances
- all medical systems will struggle and we could see something similar to the spanish flu in terms of global death rates; particularly among the elderly, smokers, those with lung conditions
- china is under reporting the numbers on a large scale; i imagine hundreds if not thousands in the uk already have it
So worrying to say the least
Don’t count on there being a vaccine for this one any time soon.
A chap* was on R4 yesterday saying that they had isolated the necessary genetic material (in record time) from novel coronavirus already and were about to move on to animal testing. Suggested that that stage would be complete within a few weeks, but the human certification process will take months. Seemed confident that a vaccine would be available next year.
*Oxbridge boffiny type. Seemed legit. Was only half listening, sorry.
Edit; bit o’googling and I reckon it was a spokesperson from this bunch;
http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-02-07-oxford-team-begin-novel-coronavirus-vaccine-research#
Seemed confident that a vaccine would be available next year.
I know nothing about this sort of thing but, isn't the main problem with corona viruses the rate of mutation, that being why we've not cured the common cold and all?
Any how, I guess the social care and pensions problems have been solved.
My wife teaches a fair number of very physically vulnerable kids, their parents must be properly worried.
All Brighton cases come from the "super-spreader" apparently. Poor guy, wouldn't want to be him. Still, all this makes a change from Brexit I guess.
“super-spreader”
Man flu and man spreading combined?
We've just had the advice from NHS Wales through, it's not terribly exciting other than Coronavirus is quite common globally, Wuhan Novel Coronavirus is new. Typical symptoms are fever and cough. Small number of otherwise fit people may develop severe pneumonia (which is really unpleasant if you've ever had it) but it's all treatable stuff.
People with weakened immune systems, older people, diabetics, cancer sufferers and those with chronic lung disease are in danger.
Coughing so much last night convinced myself I've got it not helped by OH telling me how susceptible I am to chesty coughs.
I know nothing about this sort of thing but, isn’t the main problem with corona viruses the rate of mutation, that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
Yes, and, another point, didn't the common cold (of whichever flavour) decimate the natives when the Spanish arrived in South America? Until they'd developed some immunity to it, that is.
IANA emerging disease specialist, but, seems likely a similar thing is happening.
Why did SARS self limit?
that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
there is no 'common cold' theres at least a couple of hundred different lurgies that give symptoms that feel like a cold. All the symptoms you get when you have 'a cold' are you - your immune response - the snot, the sore throat, the temperature and so on - thats your immune system doing that to you. You only have one immune system so all those different lurgies feel the same. But if you had a cure / vaccine for one you'd still be able to catch all the others and they'd still feel the same.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go…
WOW!
Anyhow, I'm off to Morrison's for a bit of panic-buying. Got my EDC knife in case things get lairy in the tinned meat aisle. Anyone want anything picking up?
I've still got my brexit stockpile ready for emergencies.. admittedly thats mostly Terry's chocolate oranges (made in france) but at least lots of vitamin C. 🙂
Anyone want anything picking up?
Can you get me some nice string? I want to practice some survival macrame.
Anyone want anything picking up?
A Glock 17 and a few hundred rounds.
This shit just got real.
I'd like some Wagon Wheels but have to be the jammy ones. If they've only got plain don't bother.
Ok, that's a good list. Drac, would a rapidfire Nerf gun be an acceptable substitute?
What with me in Broadwater and pictonroad on the other side of Worthing (I think?) we're pretty much doomed round here. #Prayforworthingmtb.
Won't be laughing when I'm struggling for breath though, will I?
In London today for a meeting. Be back when I get out of quarantine in a couple of weeks.
Would it be in bad taste to have a sweepstake on how many cases by the end of the month? I’m going for a couple of hundred.
Ok, that’s a good list. Drac, would a rapidfire Nerf gun be an acceptable substitute?
Only if it has one of the fancy ammo belts.
My Wife (who has been suffering from bad flu the last few days so is not working), has just got off the phone with her mum in Italy, small little village down south. SCANDAL alert.. Apparently some young teacher has recently returned from China via the UK as all inbound flights to Italy from China had been stopped – i.e. she by-passed the controls (apparently). At the same time the school she works out has just been quarantined by the local gov due to mice infestation (apparently). The young teacher’s parents are a doctor and nurse, of which were seen burning clothes and stuff in their garden, with a cob on. School are being very “secretive” of what they are doing.. this is typical Italian drama with bugger all facts (as that ruins good stories over there)
In reality – i think
Teacher was in Chain, but could not get a flight direct to Italy – nothing unusual there.
Teacher will have been on flight that will have been cleared by UK gov
School is fine, but someone with a firm for “cleaning” is mates with local mayor and has seen an opportunity for some €€€€
Teachers parents have gone full paranoid / or burning garden waste and are fed up with people staring, talking
Teachers career will be in tatters due to usual small village ignorance..
While the fatality rate is never nice the biggest impact will be the closing down of everything.
No food/supplies delivered to shops, no people working in shops to sell the very limited food/supplies. That goes for animal foods as well as humans for anyone that has animals.
We stocked up about 3 weeks ago as there is only one way this is going to go…
Utter bollocks. The fatality rate of the virus is on a par with normal flu, but the contagion rate is slightly higher (1.7 vs 1.6) caused by the fact that symptoms are difficult to detect in the early phases. Quarantine is in place to limit infections and thus limit the potential for mutation in the early phases.
The elderly/infirm/complications are the biggest fatality group just as they are with flu.
Panic buying like you've just done is what will CAUSE food shortages. Pillock.
– china is under reporting the numbers on a large scale; i imagine hundreds if not thousands in the uk already have it
So worrying to say the least
Again Bollocks. The WHO is on the ground in China and those are the number we're hearing.
As for UK cases...this government couldn't keep a secret if its life depended on it. If there were substantially more cases, we'd know purely by the transit of health staff to locations.
that being why we’ve not cured the common cold and all?
there is no ‘common cold’ theres at least a couple of hundred different lurgies that give symptoms that feel like a cold. All the symptoms you get when you have ‘a cold’ are you – your immune response – the snot, the sore throat, the temperature and so on – thats your immune system doing that to you. You only have one immune system so all those different lurgies feel the same. But if you had a cure / vaccine for one you’d still be able to catch all the others and they’d still feel the same.
Yep, at least 200 types of virus we call the "common cold".
There are lots of anti-viral drugs drugs to treat specific viruses and even broad spectrum ones that can treat a selection, but the reason why we don't have simple cure, apart from the fact it's not simple is there's really no point.
New drugs are very expensive. Would you pay £50 for a course of drugs to cure a virus that usually goes in 3 days? Would you still pay if you knew the drug might take longer to work than the cold lasts? Would you accept possible side-effects?
Colds are rarely more than inconvenient and 50p worth of Paracetamol / decongestant tablets treat the symptoms well enough for most people to carry on as normal.
Yep, at least 200 types of virus we call the “common cold”.
Four of which are existing corona viruses which are already endemic in the genpop. And cause respiratory symptoms, mostly cold like but occasionally more severe, especially in the old, weak, immumocompromised, etc. This is just a new one so we as a species are yet to build up a herd immunity to it, which is why we are seeing a mortality spike.
Nothing new under the sun. An understandable worry if you have young/elderly/infirm loved ones, but not the ‘sneezebola’ that the media seem to want to portray it as.
My understanding was that Sars did not self limit, they isolated contacts till it ran out of steam. (From a half heard radio interview yesterday)
So, being near ground zero I thought I would risk a trip into work today. Everything seems to be running at around 30% capacity commute wise, shops are open but its not busy and there was a mad queue outside one of the chemists near work as rumor had it they had some masks coming in.
I'm working on a number of projects in Asia and all my Chinese ones now have ground to a halt, first because each local authority has basically stopped any non-essential works in the two main cities I have projects in, Shanghai and Beijing, and secondly we need to get our heads around the new paperwork on how to ensure any contractors applying to do work on-site have been proven to have gone through the standard 14 days quarantine.
This is a big fuss over a flu bug, fueled by the the Chinese government going overboard now to try to make up for, or at least be seen to, after trying to keep it quiet in the first place, further fueled by sensationalist global media.
The one death in HK to date was a guy who had some very bad health issues already and the original surge, well the first 11 treated with this virus in HK, being all Chinese nationals who hot-footed it here for better treatment in our hospitals once they knew they were ill.
One of the reasons for the recent strike by medical staff to close the border, the medical facilities here struggled to cope with an influx of pregnant mainlands years ago taking advantage of the instant residency rights of newborns (law changed since then to stop this), it would be overwhelmed if the borders hadn't been closed.
Utter bollocks. The fatality rate of the virus is on a par with normal flu, but the contagion rate is slightly higher (1.7 vs 1.6) caused by the fact that symptoms are difficult to detect in the early phases. Quarantine is in place to limit infections and thus limit the potential for mutation in the early phases.
Interested what source you're quoting those stats from. The generally accepted case fatality ratio of seasonal flu is estimated to be approximately 0.1%. CFR of this novel coronavirus is thought to be at least 1%, possibly higher. The R0 of this novel coronavirus has not yet been fully established, but is still thought to be in excess of 2.5.
If there are any reliable sources which paint a more optimistic picture of this virus than that, I'd be delighted to hear them.
The WHO may be on the ground, but the Chinese Government is setting the ground rules. In the last couple of days they have revised their criteria for confirmed cases to just those testing positive with symptoms, as opposed to testing positive with or without them. This has the effect of immediately making it appear that case numbers are beginning to plateau, when the reverse may be true.
(It may also mean that the CFR appears higher than it is too, every cloud and all that). Reported deaths are currently just over the 1,000 mark from 40,000 confirmed cases.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1226868235192152065
Interested what source you’re quoting those stats from.
Friends working with the WHO at Imperial College on Modelling of the virus.
The change in criteria would make sense though, wouldn't it? If you're a carrier, but with no symptoms (cough, sneezing, runny nose) your likelihood of passing the virus on (fluid transmission) is substantially reduced. So long as you're quarantined for a period...
For reference common Influenza has killed over infected almost 10000000 Americans and killed 12000 this flu season, a mortality rate of ~0.15%.
If the modelling I've seen is correct, the total number of infections is/would be substantially higher than claimed, but the death rate will be the same as/similar to reported. Which would give a mortality rate of 0.45%. Higher yes, but still low.
Come back in 4 weeks time Daffy and well see how great your statements are looking. Pillock
Stop with calling each other Pillocks.
jam bo
Subscriber
the disaster fappers will be here shortly…you can guess who.Posted 1 week ago
i was right on point with post 2...
Its very apparent that we are still compiling and analyzing the data (albeit from an unreliable source, China). From that all we can do is interpret, hope and predict outcomes (and call each other names. Im looking at you Kerley).
Im surprised and impressed at the high level of facts and figures that have been posted thus far and the accompanying logic hasnt been too ludicrous either.
So back in the day there was much public debate in the USofA as to whether or not it was constitutional but more over a moral & Christian thing to do to equip your fallout shelter with a machine gun to protect your self and family from neighbours who hadn't prepared properly. (broadly the answer was yes)
Obviously being the UK a machine gun isn't cricket but what's the stw approved method of personal protection from over enthusiastic huggers and aggressive hand shakers now we find ourselves approaching the end of days?
(maybe this should be on the penknife/edc thread)
It used to part of Swiss law that all hosues needed a bomb/nukeproof shelter. My Swiss colleagues have informed me that most of these were actually just used for fondue and raclette eating to contain the cheese smell
The Swiss cheese-bunker plan sounds good but I imagine in practice it'll be full of holes.
what’s the stw approved method of personal protection from over enthusiastic huggers and aggressive hand shakers now we find ourselves approaching the end of days?
in the UK? Invite them over for dinner, yet inform them beforehand that you’re a vegan leftie cyclist tree-huggers with a dog that likes to lick people. For good measure, mention that you are housing some refugees.
Stop with calling each other Pillocks.
I was just replying to the insult, I suppose I could have reported him.
Anyway, no panic on my part. If anything does happen my animals will all be fine - if nothing happens I have a few months worth of food so won't need to buy any for a few months.
I think you are all over estimating the people of this country but like I said, come back in 4 weeks time and see how it has panned out...
Friends working with the WHO at Imperial College on Modelling of the virus.
The change in criteria would make sense though, wouldn’t it? If you’re a carrier, but with no symptoms (cough, sneezing, runny nose) your likelihood of passing the virus on (fluid transmission) is substantially reduced. So long as you’re quarantined for a period…
As a model, presumably it's making a lot of optimistic assumptions about under-reporting and the period during which patients are capable of transmitting the virus, with or without symptoms (and pre and post illness).
I'm not sure there's any clarity over asymptomatic transmission.
Have your friends published anything yet? Would like to take a look. It is presumably a happy upswing from the Imperial/MRC report yesterday.
https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1226765905306234881
Interestingly, President Xi has apparently expressed the opinion that current quarantine measures may be too restrictive, and harming the economy. 🙂
Interestingly, President Xi has apparently expressed the opinion that current quarantine measures may be too restrictive, and harming the economy
Well there's no point worrying about a few % of a middling % of people dying of infection if the solution is starving all of them instead.
The Swiss cheese-bunker plan sounds good but I imagine in practice it’ll be full of holes.
<applause>
I was just replying to the insult,
It wasn't an insult to be fair. Daffy only said that the utter bollocks you posted was utter bollocks. You 'stocked up' three weeks ago? What did you honestly think was going to run out last week? 😉 Bog roll?
if you sincerely believed that panic buying was about to start, the last thing you'd logically now be wanting to do is fuel a panic by posting about it on the internet?
So it seemed more likely you were trying intentionally to be funny? Whatever, it's possible to laugh at what you typed as others have done, and call it out as nonsense without being personally insulting.
(@martinhutch - it's the same report. I linked to the pdf yesterday. It evidences the estimates. Worth reading.)
What did you honestly think was going to run out last week? 😉 Bog roll?
My Andrex stockpile is all set. Don't come back here crying when you're wiping your arse with worthless bank-notes in some post-apocalyptic wasteland in the second week of March. 🙂
wiping your arse with worthless bank-notes
Given they're all plastic this could get messy, but contactless doesn't seem to work very well.
but contactless doesn’t seem to work very well.
You can still just swipe your card in the slot like you used to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51466362
So "Covid-19" is the best they could come up with - the world's finest medical brains, and that's all they got?
"We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual or group of people, and which is also pronounceable and related to the disease," the WHO chief said.
There's your brief STW - get to it.
29er virus.
Doesn't make the trails victims come alive.
Bog roll?
Imagine a world without bog roll! We're simply not prepared for that level of privation, no matter what WWII make do and mend spirit Boris Johnson tries to encourage with some Churchillian speech. I'm quite looking forward to not having to go to work though.
So “Covid-19” is the best they could come up with
I preferred 'wu-flu' but I'm aware of the slightly racist undertones of that.
There’s your brief STW – get to it.
The screaming ab-dabs
The WHO has a point, the 2009 H1n1 flu spread from the United States - we didn’t call it yank-flu or fat **** flu.
Also, covid-19 sounds likes something that would end the world. It’s got a certain Resident evil or half-life ring to it.
Also, covid-19 sounds likes something that would end the world. It’s got a certain Resident evil or half-life ring to it.
I keep thinking of crows but that's corvid.
As a name, no-one's raven about it.
There’s your brief STW – get to it
Billy Ray?
Death bug, possibly.
There’s your brief STW – get to it.
Poorly make bad feel virus 19
Covid Stiffee?
Kill All-a's too covidy for crows, it's only for me and my dog.
Well the last outbreak was called middle Eastern respiratory syndrome.
Carrying on the theme and ramping it up a bit this should be called Chinese death plague of doom.
Hong Kong fluey?
The wild animals cannot fight back so their virus come to their defense. (a bit like War of the Worlds)
In future all wild animals will develop virus to defend themselves against being hunted for "food".
Kung Flu Fighting?
...I'll get me Kimono...
Joker-19
“We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual or group of people, and which is also pronounceable and related to the disease,”
Oh Aye, they're always careful like that - was just the same with New Delhi Metalloproteinase 😉
You ‘stocked up’ three weeks ago? What did you honestly think was going to run out last week?
It is not about things running out, it is about getting things delivered, shops being open. Not much use having a shop full of stock if the staff are all in quarantine is there.
Once a lot of areas are locked down, lots of quarantining going on, factories closing etc it will be hard to get the vital supplies. We have over 20 animals and don't want to be in a position where they have no food. Simple precaution and just buying a bit more food than I normally would as we always have stocks of food (i.e. we don't wait until we have no food before ordering more), we now just have higher stocks (none of which will go to waste due to shelf life)
If it doesn't become a much bigger problem in next months then so be be it, if it does then I won't have a load of animals staving to death.
I don't think any of that makes me a "pillock"
I preferred ‘wu-flu’ but I’m aware of the slightly racist undertones of that.
Will the remainder of the Wu-tang clan do a remix?
The Wu-flu bug aint nuttin to f with
Ah so, how's about 'No.19'?
We have over 20 animals
eat the animals. 😉
Wu-tang clan
Flu-Tang Clan, surely?
All this is enough to put us off our bat soup, or as we call it here, chicken of the cave.
As an example of the people you all seem to have trust in. Wife works in NHS surgery. Yesterday afternoon in walks a woman who has just come back from China and says she thinks she may have it. (Didn't phone anyone first, didn't book appointment)
Surgery got a deep clean and are contemplating whether to now close.
As an example of the people you all seem to have trust in...
I have absolute trust in the public and your example does nothing but reinforce that trust.
So “Covid-19” is the best they could come up with
Cat aids. The wu kind.
We've had the following from a customer.
Please confirm that the produce supplied to XXX Food Company has not been affected by this outbreak and what you have in place in order to mitigate the risk of contamination and contingency plans to maintain a safe supply chain.
How do you start with confirming that it hasn't been affected when it's an ever changing situation? No one ever asks the same question when it's flu season! The number of products we supply containing ingredients from China is miniscule, but there's no guarantees other than best practice being carried out as with any other illness.
How do you start with confirming that it hasn’t been affected when it’s an ever changing situation?
Do they have 20 cats?
Completely aside from whether folks think he is or is not overreacting, I'm intrigued by what type of animals kerley has? Are these all pets?? Or do you live on a farm?
20 seems a very high number..I have visions of a home petting zoo.
I live in Worthing, I’ve had symptoms of malaise for years, now I know why.
, I’m intrigued by what type of animals kerley has?
I'm guessing bats chickens of the cave?