Any thoughts on how a lockdown will work this time round? Sounds like (from WalesOnline) in Wales at least there serious planning going on for a 'circuit-break' some time in the next few weeks that will include half-term.
I'm wondering if it will be back to the only leave the house once for exercise and not by car, or whether understanding of the virus is such that we'll be allowed outside more than once and be allowed to travel short distances for recreation outside.
It won’t work properly because it will be a fudge not a lockdown.
I’m afraid we have been completely failed by incompetent leadership & ideology.
We didn't have a true lockdown last time. Seems a bit pointless speculating what it might be this time around. "Not enough" is my best guess.
Headline in the FT today saying the IMF are stating austerity won't be needed to balance the books - good job we have a government that doesn't need to listen to experts.
the current government policy is just a reflection of the reality of the previous "lockdown". For the most part Ignored in the shires and only marginally enforced in major metropolitan centers.
binners, you beat me to it; whately is an embarrassment and incompetent in all her public performances.
Pushing her out as johnson's representative shows his utter contempt for the public - the little people - and parliament.
Test, trace, track, isolate - a mantra that gives off the impression of focus and competence; if only.
I see that to add insult to injury, as well as the test and trace being handed to SERCO with no tendering process, there are no enforceable penalties for their continued failure to deliver it
They've effectively been handed a blank cheque
Any thoughts on how a lockdown will work this time round? Sounds like (from WalesOnline) in Wales at least there serious planning going on for a ‘circuit-break’ some time in the next few weeks that will include half-term.
I’m wondering if it will be back to the only leave the house once for exercise and not by car, or whether understanding of the virus is such that we’ll be allowed outside more than once and be allowed to travel short distances for recreation outside.
It's not been decided in Wales yet, but if it happens, and it probably will, it will likely be the same as back in March.
For us that meant all non essential business closed, 1 lot of outdoor exercise a day, non-essential travel banned etc.
I don't think it's a case of "if we need to" as they're saying, it's more of a case of "if we can do it". It's easier on Business if they do it half-term but it still leaves lots of questions about childcare for essential workers, financial support for businesses who are already struggling etc. The financial and economic part is the hardest, WAG doesn't have any tax raising powers so if Boris / Westminster doesn't want to support it (and let's be honest, he doesn't) then it's going to be hard to pull off.
I see in the News today, Boris is still trying to claim the current regs would bring the R rate below 1 again if only everyone would follow them.
The government has just said "no agreement has been reached with Greater Manchester"
Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!
Good on him!
All this talk about "enforcement" rather than "support" is the issue... and Burnham is right to insist on support... otherwise the government is forcing a hard choice on more and more businesses and workers this winter... go broke or try and work around the rules.
Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!
Playing devils advocate, how many extra cases will there by while Burnham stands his ground, and how many people will die as a result? (Yes I know the hardship from lost jobs will also have an impact).
London into Tier 2 from Saturday, different to Andy Burnham, it appears from the implication in the News that Khan has forced the decision based on the government's delay to protect the city.
I think its a good thing for us to move to Tier 2, but is this Starmer using the Capital to gain some political points? E.G. Labour controlled region is decisive.
Looks like Andy has just told Boris where he can stick his Tier 3!
What would stop Burnham telling businesses in Manchester to ignore the tier 3 rules and instructing the police not to prosecute them?
Playing devils advocate, how many extra cases will there by while Burnham stands his ground, and how many people will die as a result?
This isn't just Andy. Apparently the most vocal critics of the government in the meeting this morning were from GM's new 'red wall' Tory MP's who are not happy at all.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1316690619952246784?s=20
It's not just new MPs either. Liam Brady - Trafford MP, head of the 1922 committee, so a Tory big hitter - is vehemently opposed to this.
Seems like Boris is facing a united, cross-party front. So he sent political heavyweight Helen Whately out to deal with it. I'd have paid good money to watch that 😀
What would stop Burnham telling businesses in Manchester to ignore the tier 3 rules and instructing the police not to prosecute them?
Not sure the police are quite OK with being told how to enforce the law by some mayor or other. Yes, he could cause mayhem by undermining the tier 3 rules just on his own, though.
Yesterday Lancashire was going into Tier 3 now it's staying in Tier 2 - for now. How can I plan with any certainty for my business when I don't know when any future change might be applied. Uncertainty is the enemy of investment and all that.
Liam Brady – Trafford MP
Not sure he's an MP. Had a wand of a left foot though. Ironically.
My mistake. I meant Graham Brady. 😀
It is a crazy situation though. I mean... where is Boris? Yet again?
Reports coming out of this mornings 'meeting' are saying that there wasn't one single voice in support of moving Greater Manchester into Tier 3. Not even from any of the Tories. Universal cross-party opposition.
Boris would have and should have known this. He didn't, as he didn't bother to ask them. He sent numbskull Helen Whately out to TELL them what was about to happen, having not bothered to consult them. They told her, collectively, to **** off!
Over to you Boris
Boris just isn't politic though is he. Not in the broader sense of the word. He doesn't listen, explain, mediate, compromise or display sound judgement.
I see in the News today, Boris is still trying to claim the current regs would bring the R rate below 1 again if only everyone would follow them.
No comment.
I think above all else, you have to carry the population with you. Clear rules and clear communication. Half-term is coming. Adding extra conditions on top of the (normal) closure of schools may bring disproportionate benefits (it's a nonlinear system after all), hence a circuit breaker makes sense.
Criteria should be clear and transparent. Infections at rate X and rate of acceleration Y. Hospital admissions growing at X%/day. People don't like numbers, but they do like clarity.
Means of supporting the affected should be just as clear.
Regardless of the measures used, or the limitations in the data (false positive testing, confounded counting of positive admissions...), a robust interpretation of the patterns in multiple data streams, is that the situation in some parts of the country is grave, and there is little reason to think this will be different elsewhere at later times.
TiRed for PM!
I do sums not politics 😉
I see Serco’s ‘World-Beating’ Test and Trace system has delivered its worst results yet. It’s now only getting 62% of contacts
What a total ****ing shambles!
How on earth are we meant to get on top of this with the Track and Trace system totally unfit for purpose and actually getting worse?
I wouldn't trust Helen Whately to put her own slip-on shoes on without cocking it up.
Utter shambles as usual
I see during Hancock’s half hour this morning he’s ruled out a circuit breaker in England.
I see during Hancock’s half hour this morning he’s ruled out a circuit breaker in England.
Means nothing by this point, he will u-turn as he has countless times in the face of media pressure.
As John Crace put it yesterday: they say they're definitely not going to do something, right up to the point where they hit the panic button and do precisely that
What an absolute cluster****.
I never thought it possible that they could raise the bar for incompetence from their previous cluster****s with exams and test and trace but astonishingly they are succeeding in doing just that. Starmer and co must be pissing themselves. I'm seriously beginning to wonder whether this govt will last til the next election.
Even the hateful Daily Fail are saying that little Matty Handjob is only keeping his job as he'll be the perfect scapegoat when the inquiry starts
How on earth are we meant to get on top of this with the Track and Trace system totally unfit for purpose and actually getting worse?
If it makes you feel any better having experienced the testing system myself now I'm confident that even a 100% success rate of T&T finding contacts wouldn't be close to containing the virus as the testing methodology is so deeply flawed for anyone who has to self test, which now seems to include some of the drive-to sites.
I've only ever viewed testing as a PROSPECTIVE tool for containing spread in those with the highest contacts (teachers, healthcare workers, transport workers...). And of course clinical diagnosis. It seems the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal ASAP. This was never going to work and has been a huge distraction to what testing could achieve. There are a fixed number (A very big number) of available daily tests, but it helps when using a machine gun, to at least point it in the direction of the enemy rather than fire (almost) randomly at will.
johnson's policy - ready, fire, aim
Do you think Helen Whately has yet registered what just happened?
Those Tory backbenchers are against any lockdown because they view it as too detrimental to the economy. The irony of that stance while being part of a government presiding over the economic disaster of Brexit appears to be lost on them. ****s.
the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal
The public think that because that's what they've been told. In my girl's school, if you've got a high temperature or a cough you get sent home and are told you need a clear test or to stay away for 2 weeks. So the message from the school is very clearly "get a test, get your normal life back".
We've been promoted to Tier 2 here in Erewash. Go us!
johnson’s policy – ready, fire, aim
surely - fire, aim, ready
Meanwhile, the Chinese are all like:
“If people want to die, you can’t persuade or stop them,” one user says. It’s becoming a common sentiment in China that, as one user puts it, “while Chinese lost two months of freedom” with quick and aggressive lockdown measures, “Westerners are only losing their lives”.
And the European Union are all like:
The EU body has also said countries should co-ordinate contact tracing and the eventual deployment of vaccines, giving priority to vulnerable communities.
edit: sorry, sauce - BBC News
johnson’s policy – ready, fire, aim
surely – fire, aim, ready
Nope, it's just fire, fire, fire. Aiming and readiness are for experts, not required here.
It seems the general public think it is a tool to help them get their lives back to normal ASAP.
I wonder why that is?
binners
Full MemberI see Serco’s ‘World-Beating’ Test and Trace system has delivered its worst results yet. It’s now only getting 62% of contacts
They are only finding a fraction of the people who are covid +ve anyway.
Going off the figures from a few weeks ago - 1/200 were in infected (ONS survey), so about 300k across the country. Assume 10 days of being infected, so ~30k/day becoming infected. T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%.
So whether TnT are finding 62% of 20%, or 100% of 20%, doesn't really make much difference in the overall scheme of things.
From the Guardian (I know!):
One Labour MP in the telephone briefing said:
Shitshow doesn’t even begin to summarise that meeting with [care minister] Helen Whately. We let the Tory MPs go first and they piled into her saying: what’s the point of this meeting if you are just going to brief to the media that you’ve already made a decision?
and..
The meeting ended with Whately saying: “I can see there are opposing views here.” Apparently she was then “shouted down by everyone saying: no there aren’t, we all agree we don’t want tier 3”.
Testing helps us know where we’re going (but we’re failing both to do that testing, and to read and react to what little it is telling us), and while prevalence is low TTI can help contain outbreaks and reintroduction… but only if the tracing works and isolation is supported so that people stick to it. Once the numbers are high enough and rising, like they are now, just about everywhere in the UK, the blunt tool of social distancing has to be used, whether we want that or not… testing and TTI would be swamped even if they were properly set up. Most importantly, social distancing needs clear communication and financial support… or it just won’t happen.
T&T was finding about 5-6k of those per day at the time, about 20%
In the first wave the hospital admissions were, what, 5% of the total? 20% is at least an improvement.
PS not trying to defend the indefensible.
So maybe it's been covered, but at what point (i.e. % of infections) does track and track need to reach to make a dent in this thing?
I wonder why that is?
Because that dick Vallance told them:
You'll note I'm reinforcing your point, Kelvin, not disagreeing. 🙂
So maybe it’s been covered, but at what point (i.e. % of infections) does track and track need to reach to make a dent in this thing?
Depends on what other measures are in place, and how many people are infected.
Testing and TTI are about containing small numbers of infected and their contacts (and their contacts)... they're not tools that are of much use when the numbers of infected are high and rising fast, especially if social distancing measures are weak.