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The biggest outlier from the data is South Korea. They have nailed it.
Don't think S Korea is done with this. Average age of their patients is low compared with others, hence 0.7% CFR. When it gets into their elderly groups, we'll see how they get on.
As for our government's predictions, picking the absolute outlier and saying you'll beat them is ambitious.
Jolmes: please step away from the thread if you believe any of that guff you posted, I was out before the end of the first few paragraphs.
I’m making a note of all the spurious predictions, assertions and other nonsense on this thread and will be reminding everyone, when this is all over, of their stupidity. You have been warned.
JP
I’m making a note of all the spurious predictions, assertions and other nonsense on this thread and will be reminding everyone, when this is all over, of their stupidity. You have been warned.
JP
Well it augurs well if you get to do that because it means both you and at least one other STWer made it through alive.
That's the spirit! Make a mental note to have a pop at people as soon as the 'too soon?' window closes.
Sheesh!
Doesn’t matter, a third of a million deaths is almost the same as the UKs total deaths during the war (civilian and military), half a million is around the same and anything above is more! And that’s in a shorter time span! That’s mental.
The uk death rate is about 9/1000 annually.
There are 66million people in the UK, so that’s about 550000 people dying every year.
Is suspect this will be a very bad year, but still a lot of the people that die from covid19 would have died in the next 12 months anyway.
Cheery thoughts. 🙁
Is suspect this will be a very bad year, but still a lot of the people that die from covid19 would have died in the next 12 months anyway.
Society as petri dish?
Footflaps I prefer deaths to cases because of differences in testing between countries. I did use a simple lag time model to predict deaths from past cases a week ago, which works very well indeed for projection, except the U.K. has changed testing. Then I looked at growth rate of any country compared to all others. Based on that, UK, France and Italy are all trending on the mean doubling time. South Korea and even the US are doing well for now. If we see 100 cases By Tuesday, I’m concerned we are off the curve.
It’s relatively rudimentary compared to my past efforts, but so much is not known (like incubation time, infectiousness even immunity.
Reducing contacts, will definitely reduce transmission though. Whether it reduces the overall numbers infected is still moot. But incidence will be lower.
I agree deaths are more accurate than cases albeit with the lag, but I guess you also need to be wary of the Fatality rate which will vary depending where a country is in an outbreak. I.e might be 1-2% in early stages, but 7-8% once the ventilators run out.
The uk death rate is about 9/1000 annually
That surely can not be right or the average age at death would be 110ish?
On the South Korea thing, my mate lives there and says no one there is trusting the government stats, so who knows
Don’t think S Korea is done with this. Average age of their patients is low compared with others, hence 0.7% CFR. When it gets into their elderly groups, we’ll see how they get on.
Scroll down and look at new cases/day, looks nailed to me
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Thinking about this in a slightly cold, clinical way it could all be a fascinating social experiment.
The group in society least likely to be harmed by this are the fit young. The millenials and gen Z. In fact they have plenty to gain - imagine what might happen to the housing market if a few hundred thousand pensioners don't make it. All those homes on the market and all those inheritances. They are also the group in society that need to step up most - they will be expected to keep working and when not working seeing to the needs of the quarantined vulnerable elders.
They also have a reputation for entitlement and self orientation. The group in society that expects something for something and to put themselves first.
So will they collectively step up or will they live up to their apparent reputation and shrug and keep on keeping on?
Well if you’d been reading properly...
He wasn't talking about you, note the comma. Consider yourself educated on the matter. 😉
They also have a reputation for entitlement and self orientation.
Wait, I thought you were talking about us millennials. Then you said that.
Deaths and cases were equally well-predicted by a five and seven day lag of cases (to reflect a first order derivative). I also agree about death rate changing with numbers and duration, but comparing a counter with all others is instructive for the same stage of an epidemic (I rebase all at a given number of deaths). I’d post SK but images don’t work for me!
Some light relief below, stolen from Twitter
Day # 3 of isolation
https://twitter.com/sturdyalex/status/1238951544017637376?s=21
Just been through jfk security to get one of the last normal flights out of NY to Gatwick and it was full of extremely panicky people, really stressful and scary situation.. Security working hard to control it, but you could see it tiltering. American Airlines cancelling 70% of services adding to the nightmare as people rush to get last flights. End of the world movie stuff and it's horrible when you just a member of the herd and not the hero.
Lots of variations of gloves, masks and homemade protection. Lots of coughing. Hand sanitiser, face masks and wipes are worth more than gold right now. I'll be self isolating on return, just gotta last until the ocado delivery on Saturday.
The question no-one seems to be able to answer is how long can these lock downs last. You hear 2 weeks and they'll review it again, which is fair dos, review regularly, wise. But do they really think things will be sorted by then or even in 4 or 6 weeks?
Doesn't really seem like much of a plan and is just fire fighting.
But realistically how long can a European country remain in lockdown before economies start to tits up?
I suspect not very long, myself.
I don't actually see a great deal of difference between the UK and the European approach tbh. Both are emphasizing protecting their health services as much as possible, with delay.
But the UK seems to be the only country that has half an incling that lockdown can't last all that long.
Looking at the numbers it seems obvious even the likes of Italy is only testing hospital admissions too. Only seen data from Friday but it said they've done 84k tests and 13k positive from that. Which isn't particularly widespread testing is it? The UK reckoned on Thursday up to 10000 cases. So basically I think it sounds like you can add a zero onto any of the offical reported cases, based on the UK admission, meaning italy's true number is probably more in the region of 150k before the weekend. So it's rife through the population.
Surely things are just going to flare up when they have to end lockdown?
Defo seems like people are wanting us to jump too early to me.
Doesn’t really seem like much of a plan and is just fire fighting.
The whole world is firefighting. We can do two things, carry on as normal and ensure exponential spread of the virus with all the horrific consequences, or delay the spread through social isolation and other measures. Both result in massive economic disruption and chaos, one of them reduces the number of people who fall ill and die. Economies can be bailed out and recovered, dead people can't.
Defo seems like people are wanting us to jump too early to me.
It defo seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about. Others have posted the genuine concerns of actual experts, we should probably accept that whatever choice we make the science isn’t as robust as some make it out to be and that we are learning as we are going. Maybe the least risky strategy politically and epidemiologically is the one the government should be adopting. People can forgive or forget a hit to their wallets, they won’t forgive or forget their parents dying.
seosamh77
SubscriberBut realistically how long can a European country remain in lockdown before economies start to tits up?
Less time than has already passed. These are the 2 inescapables of this outbreak- 1, it's going to kill a load of people regardless of what we do and 2, our economies can't deal with it regardless of what we do. Even if you could switch it all off today, the economic damage so far puts us well in the hole.
The modern day economy is not a durable thing- everything is interconnected, and too much is too finetuned, it's a massive complicated machine with a trillion parts spread out all around the world. It works great when it works but supply chains need to flow smoothly and constantly, both supply and demand need to function. Capitalism has been an incredible tool for building efficiencies but the flipside of that is that it's cut out slack wherever it can. Now that we need that slack, there's not much there.
That's not to say we're doooooomed, just that we're going to have to do some pretty crazy shit to keep things functioning. There's no prospect of any sort of business as usual.
Surely if the plan is to slow down the virus shouldn't the advice be to hamster up? Minimise the need to leave the house?
Or do they know people will do this anyway and are just trying to avoid a stampede.
Then again 3 months of supplies is quite an undertaking.
just that we’re going to have to do some pretty crazy shit to keep things functioning. There’s no prospect of any sort of business as usual.
Had something of an argument with the Mrs tonight on this (after the previous disagreement). Apparently I'm being hysterical and pessimistic. I admit I'm prone to seeing the negatives, but the problem is I prefer to have too much information than too little. I've read so much stuff on this from all sorts of sources and I'm still searching for anything that tells me I'm worrying too much. Instead it's the opposite. I really don't think many people have got their heads round how this is going to change everyday life. I'm pretty comfortable with locking myself away for as long as necessary, but it's pretty frustrating and scary that others aren't.
The Uk approach needs thinking through. A country that has endemic coronavirus will be completely cut off from Lock down countries. 14 day quarantine for any human movement minimum. No long distance truckers stopping off at the truck stop for a burger. No flights in or out. Given that we import our food, this is most concerning. Needs a massive quarantine area for any exports (our exports will have coronavirus all over them for 3 days minimum). Non UK buyers will just buy elsewhere as easier. Northern Irish border won't work. NI has to have same lockdown as Ireland, can't have endemic coronavirus in NI but not republic. NI border with UK will have to close.
Not sure how long economies can sustain lockdown.
End of days stuff I'm afraid. No way Africa, Asia and Latin america will be able to manage effective lock down.
-
And who would we want in charge of the superpowers in time of world crisis? Trump and Putin? I don't think so.
But realistically how long can a European country remain in lockdown before economies start to tits up?
My thoughts exactly, the effect on everyone will be huge, rather than 'just' the old and infirm. I will lose elderly family and neighbours but rather that than my children or friends.
My biggest worry is this country not having enough food. It only takes one infection to close down a food manufacturer or supplier for a day for deep cleaning. There's no slack to account for this. Then there's our reliance on imported food and ingredients.
Draw bridge pretty much pulled up here.
Spent last day with other half for the foreseeable. We live separately, she works in the NHS and I'm worried for her. Not just the the virus but other complexities that will arise from it.
Tried to convince my bil to set up an account for online shipping with Tesco or whatever. Nope, he's too worried about using his debit card online... What can you do?
We are stocked up, sorted that a couple of weeks ago. Will just go out for prescription meds for myself and mother and not much else now. Keeping an eye on a guy down the road I know that is recovering from cancer and lives a very insular life as it is. He's "only" 63 but guessing his immune system is not great.
I'll go out for walks till the eventual lock down but I won't be going inside shops and will avoid others.
As with many on here, if I catch it I'll likely be ok.... that won't be the case for someone very dear to me.
Voluntary lock down is the only logical and moral choice for me.
Going luck all. Why not keep the thread friendly eh? Enough going on as it is without the personal ego clashes.
Well I'm up and at em, off to the virus farm, this immune herd of kids wont just breed themselves!
When your friend is dieing from myeloma cancer and has refused to let you visit, to see each other one last time it all gets a bit dusty
Bloody virus, I see his point though. I would be more likely to contract or cross infect if I do go therefore shortening the time left as they are still doing chemo and radio therapy b hence more vulnerable, but it's pointless as this is round 3 now
When your friend is dieing from myeloma cancer and has refused to let you visit
At least he knows, take care.
“ No long distance truckers stopping off at the truck stop for a burger. No flights in or out. Given that we import our food, this is most concerning. ”
This is complete scare mongering.
Other European countries that are in “lockdown” are still allowing road hauliers to move across borders and there’s nothing to suggest the U.K. will be any different. If Eurostar passenger services run less frequently there will
be more capacity for freight movements using the channel tunnel.
14 day quarantine for any human movement minimum.
It’s 7.
I’m making a note of all the spurious predictions, assertions and other nonsense on this thread and will be reminding everyone, when this is all over, of their stupidity. You have been warned.
Eeeek, we're already at the thought police. Isn't that meant to come after when Cumms has a coup whilst the country is battered and reeling?
It's all spurious predictions based on random ideas and pub talk. There's some useful stuff but there's a heck of a lot someone down the forum said. Might be 80:20 might be 1:100 for useful stuff.
A few weeks ago - this isnt going to go well we need to take drastic action would be seen as spurious prediction. The random might be right and the righteous might be wrong. When all this is over - I'm going to go for a ride. I'm not going to be looking for who had the most random theory. I'm going to be looking who's still here and who we are going to remember.
Anyway, that's me clocking on for another shift in the rabbit hole.
Well I’m up and at em, off to the virus farm, this immune herd of kids wont just breed themselves!
Cheers AA after a hectic weekend I can have a peaceful day today thanks to your colleagues.
It defo seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
None of us do. That being said,
Apparently I’m being hysterical and pessimistic.
I'd be inclined to agree with your wife. Step away from the internet and cut the noise out. You aren't preparing yourself, you're hoovering up the doom and passing it on.
This is complete scare mongering.
Concur.
I can have a peaceful day today thanks to your colleagues.
Sounds like you need it. Thanks to you and your colleagues as well, Drac.
Concur.
Don’t look at Italy then.
We’re all buying Drac drinks later in the year.
Tried to convince my bil to set up an account for online shipping with Tesco or whatever. Nope, he’s too worried about using his debit card online… What can you do?
slight digression from topic but we had this problem with my mil. we set her up with a monzo account a with a few hundred quid in it. allows her to pay for stuff contactless and shop online. she gets a notification of every transaction and can constantly monitor the balance etc which is improving her confidence in online spending. she is still adamant she must go into a branch to top it up so at the moment we do it for her... she is primary carer for very elderly parents and her less than healthy husband so they're in major lockdown.
It’s 7.
May need a currently before the numeral. We appear to know a lot about not much and this is going to change as the science is learned and disseminated.
Cheers Martin and Kelvin but there’s many other workers out there who will be supporting people through this by still working. It’s been an interesting weekend, mentally exhausting due to the dynamic changes and logistics involved but also very interesting. Our staff just march on as usual all they ask for a is the gear to do their job.
I reckon as more go into isolation particularly if the over 70a get advised to isolate we’ll see a true community spirit come through, the same as we’ve seen in heavy snow and floods. 99% of humans are amazing and will help anyone and everyone.
May need a currently before the numeral. We appear to know a lot about not much and this is going to change as the science is learned and disseminated.
Yes it may change the same way it changed from 14 to 7.
Not just you NHS troopers we’ll be thanking. My aunt is in charge of nursing at a care home (she was an RAF nurse, so not an NHS escapee)… one of the invisible health care professionals… their work is suddenly about to be much more appreciated by the general public.
My wife is an RAF nurse, so when not deployed she works on the NHS wards like many of her colleagues. Her attitude at the moment seems to be business as usual and carry on while planning is done in the background.
Other European countries that are in “lockdown” are still allowing road hauliers to move across borders and there’s nothing to suggest the U.K. will be any different
Except that the UK isn't planning on doing anything to stop the virus spread and road hauliers won't send their drivers into an uncontrolled zone. The was a truck driver on Europe 1 this morning talking about the problem. French employment law means that if a trucker decides his health is at risk he can stop working. You're going to need requisitioned trucks with army drivers and disinfection similar to foot and mouth to get anything from Europe if the UK uses the "herd" approach and the infection rate reaches 15%.
Just phone in sick A-A. It's madness keeping schools open. Teachers (generally intelligent people) should just go on strike. If Madame's school hadn't been shut down by the government that was the way it was going anyhow. False sense of duty, your first sense of duty should be to your kids and helping to produce a load of orphans is ****ing stupid.
So last week each classroom was equiped with hand sanitiser and we were told the school had loads and to ask for more if it runs out, today I ask for more, we havent got any...trust? Not much!
Don’t look at Italy then.
Oh, I must have missed the bit about massive food shortages, got a link?
Just phone in sick A-A. It’s madness keeping schools open. Teachers (generally intelligent people) should just go on strike.
Brilliant idea, with no contingencies in place for child care I can't see how that could possibly end badly.
Is everyone else resigned that they're going to get it now? I think I am.
I've decided to avoid twitter for the foreseeable you've got every Tom, Dick or Harry Blue-tick retweeting accounts of people going through hell with it. Tales of all sorts of stuff and it's all uncorroborated.
Then it's all the smug types posting pics or empty shelves in supermarkets or the 'poignant' of an older person stood looking at them to moan about panic buyers - IF YOU'RE POSTING PICKS OF EMPTY SHELVES YOU'RE PART OF THE PROBLEM. I ended up in 3 supermarkets at the weekend (not to panic buy) and there was toilet paper, milk, teabags and whatever else on the shelves - not a huge selection, but it was there, if we keep sharing pics of empty shelves as if they were taken today, people will keep panicking.
The Papers seem to be almost celebrating it in that sick way they do Wars for sales, the front page of The Scum today is abhorrent. Exploiting an SM pic of a dead man as "Youngest to Die" like a football result, it's disgusting.
cock womble
Talking of which.
Joris will be giving daily briefings from now on.
Scrutiny avoidance can only go so far, it seems.
we should probably accept that whatever choice we make the science isn’t as robust as some make it out to be
So, do you think Whitty and his team are useless, or are they not being listened to?
Except that the UK isn’t planning on doing anything to stop the virus spread
I'm pretty sure it is.
Scrutiny avoidance can only go so far, it seems.
briefing being the operative word, I wonder how many questions he'll take.
I may be completely out of line on this, but a thought triggered by a conversation in Aldi at the weekend. A woman was talking about how because of the virus she and her husband had had their hours cut and as a result didn't know how they were going to pay the rent and feed the kids.
I hope someone, somewhere in government is calculating that the cure won't cost more than the disease in human suffering terms. In trying to stop the spread of something which has the worst impact on the old and infirm, we are going to put lots of the strain on the working poor with a likely increase in deprivation. We know there is a correlation between that and poor health and longevity. I wonder if we're going to save one part of the population only to damage another by at least as much.
@somafunk or who ever deleted my post. Whats the point? Obviously I didn't believe the story or I wouldn't have said it was a conspiracy, or was it the fact I called him a cock womble for even thinking anyone could believe that trash? Just said it was an interesting story, story being the keyword there.
Except that the UK isn’t planning on doing anything to stop the virus spread
Perhaps the Gov strategy isn't robust enough, letting people catch it etc but companies and schools are taking things into their own hands with closures and people wfh.
raybanwomble
Member
Defo seems like people are wanting us to jump too early to meIt defo seems like you don’t know what you’re talking about. Others have posted the genuine concerns of actual experts, we should probably accept that whatever choice we make the science isn’t as robust as some make it out to be and that we are learning as we are going. Maybe the least risky strategy politically and epidemiologically is the one the government should be adopting. People can forgive or forget a hit to their wallets, they won’t forgive or forget their parents dying
I'm the one that doesn't know what I'm talking about?
You seem to put zero stock in economic collapse. The consequences of that are probably worse than the virus.
It's not about people's wallets or profit. It's about keeping society functioning.
I notice you didn't answer my question too. How long can they/we stay in lockdown?
Next question, why are your 'chosen' experts better than the government experts?
Is everyone else resigned that they’re going to get it now? I think I am.
I was always resigned to it. Equally I am 'content' that I am not in an at risk group and the odds that it will be minor for me are vastly good.
My wife who has asthma (badly in my opinion but minor in medical terms) and is patient-facing in the NHS, I am more worried about.
Also, what of our jobs in the future?
ftse is heading south again, should fall through the 5000 point mark in 5,4,3... when will this start effecting house prices ?
briefing being the operative word, I wonder how many questions he’ll take.
He'll end up looking shifty, evasive and out of his depth.
Which he is.
P-Jay
Member
Is everyone else resigned that they’re going to get it now? I think I am.
I am seriously doing pretty much everything I can to avoid that scenario for the same reason I think a lot of others are. Getting it could totally screw the person you share a house with if they are infirm or elderly.
I'm honestly envious of those who probably know that if they get out it will only impact themselves directly for a while then it's over.
It's almost like the virus is exploiting social and family structures to its advantage.
My wife who has asthma (badly in my opinion but minor in medical terms) and is patient-facing in the NHS, I am more worried about.
the wife has a pretty strong inhaler (which tends to use first thing but not much after that) And was looking online for what the increased risk with c19 an asthma not that much out there just generic stuff on hand washing calling 111 no different to advice to anyone else. Does anyone have numbers/info on the actual additional risk ?
considering there are 5.4 million Asthma sufferers in the UK are they going to be added to the 4 month self isolation group along with the over 70's ?
ftse is heading south again, should fall through the 5000 point mark in 5,4,3… when will this start effecting house prices ?
Soon, with any luck.
Sorry if it's bin dun
And was looking online for what the increased risk with c19 an asthma not that much out there
The trouble with asthma (both myself and my wife are asthmatic) is that it gets lumped in with 'chronic respiratory conditions' for the purposes of things like free flu jabs. So the risk is being evaluated alongside stuff like emphysema, COPD etc. I've also seen nothing that properly separates out the effects of age + lung condition.
As far as I can determine from the limited data out there, there is an elevated risk, but not massively, provided your asthma is well managed. So the priority for any asthmatic would be to make sure they are taking their medication as directed to keep it under control as much as possible.
The next question is whether asthma will qualify as a self-isolating condition when the government eventually asks the elderly and 'vulnerable' to do this, or whether this will be limited to people with more severe respiratory conditions.
Absolutely resigned to getting it. Gave up worrying about that a few weeks ago. Given my usual state of anxiety and depression, I'm quite pleased with that.
I'm minimising the risk to try and delay it, but far more concerned about elderly relatives and friends with kids with compromised immune systems.
Poring over all the figures won't help, looking to blame someone for not doing what I think they should have done won't help, watching some on here paralysing themselves with fear isn't going to help. I'm just carrying on more or less as normal while waiting for the storm to come. Little more I can do now.
Heres the reality of the situation:
Just got in to the place where I'm working at the moment and one of the women in the office is sat there coughing and sneezing, with all the symptoms of flu, which she's been ill with all weekend. In response to the obvious question "WTF are you doing here in that state?" she replied "I can't afford not to be here"
She has just been told to get the **** out of the office, immediately, go home and self-isolate for the next two weeks.
EDIT: In true fashion the Chinese whispers gossip-machine has gone into overdrive and now she's definitely got Covid-19 and she's probably infected everyone in the place and we're definitely all going to die!🙄
I read something over the weekend that says taking ibuprofen is the worst thing you can take, it surpasses the immune system.
Paracetamol it is then.
I too am resigned to catching it, doesn't seem that bad if you aren't in any other those vulnerable groups. Best get it over with I reckon.
bikebouy
Subscriber
I read something over the weekend that says taking ibuprofen is the worst thing you can take, it surpasses the immune system.
Wouldn't happen to have a link mate?
ftse is heading south again, should fall through the 5000 point mark in 5,4,3… when will this start effecting house prices ?
Soon, with any luck.
I suspect lots of old peoples houses will be on the market in 6 to 9 months.
Seen that on faceboak re ibuprofen. Sounds a myth.
Heard Jason Leitch Q and A on radio this morning, National Clinical Director for Healthcare Quality and Strategy in Scotland.
Calm, assured and informed, was very good, I'll need to see if I can find the listen again.
Actually, I take that link back. Seems to be bollocks!
I read something over the weekend that says taking ibuprofen is the worst thing you can take, it surpasses the immune system.
Paracetamol it is then.
Its just common sense. In its most basic sense these all reduce fever. Fever is the bodies way of increasing its temperature to destroy virus. You don't need to read a conspiracy theory to know that.
There was a report in the guardian about it, but I've also seen somewhere reporting it's 'fake' news
French government warned us not to take Ibuprofen in a public announcement. That's good enough for me.
It's an anti-inflamatory that supreses the immune system.
In the same announcement they said the Chinese age profile is not being followed in France. The average of people in reanimation is 54 IIRC; the age range is much lower than expected.
Kryton57
Its just common sense. In its most basic sense these all reduce fever. Fever is the bodies way of increasing its temperature to destroy virus. You don’t need to read a conspiracy theory to know that.
Absolutely, it is a defence but sometimes the defence can be as damaging as the pathogen the body is fighting, hence the need to control fevers when they get out of hand on occasion and if appropriate.
No idea of that includes Covid.
Today the head tells us we will only shut if cases confirmed, lots of kids self isolating but not being tested. Attendance through the floor.
But we must stay open so everyone can go to work!
Except that the UK isn’t planning on doing anything to stop the virus spread and road hauliers won’t send their drivers into an uncontrolled zone. The was a truck driver on Europe 1 this morning talking about the problem. French employment law means that if a trucker decides his health is at risk he can stop working. You’re going to need requisitioned trucks with army drivers and disinfection similar to foot and mouth to get anything from Europe if the UK uses the “herd” approach and the infection rate reaches 15%.
Except the U.K. already is. What’s a uncontrolled zone this isn’t Outbreak. H&S law covers the health you risk you mention, this can be approached sensibly like any risk by minimising the risk. Driver into a U.K. port isn’t going to give covid 19. The disinfected levels you’re taking of are a massive exaggeration.
Just phone in sick A-A. It’s madness keeping schools open. Teachers (generally intelligent people) should just go on strike. If Madame’s school hadn’t been shut down by the government that was the way it was going anyhow. False sense of duty, your first sense of duty should be to your kids and helping to produce a load of orphans is **** stupid.
Thankfully AA and his colleagues are intelligent enough not to go sick but to ask for support.
Good luck with the sanitiser AA thanks to the greed and panic of the public the supplies are pretty much gone.
Two B-2 Stealth bombers just flew out of Fairford this morning. I guess Trump is trying everything to get the global supply of CV19 vaccines...
One of the interesting things Mr Leitch had to say is that it's far from inevitable that schools will close.
The average of people in reanimation is 54 IIRC
What does reanimation mean in this context? Recovered?
Attendance through the floor.
The penny has finally dropped with the Mrs as one of her mates has symptoms and is isolating. We'll probably be keeping the kids away from school after today. 15 year old still thinks she's going to a gig in Leeds on Friday. That's going to be an interesting conversation.
One of the interesting things Mr Leitch had to say is that it’s far from inevitable that schools will close.
I think it’s safe bet they will at some point.
It'll be fine the lack of testing will lead to a big reduction of cases in tge next few days!
Talked to a local doctor who works for the Out of Hours house visiting service. Not looking forward to telling families of 80 year olds in care homes that their relative isn't going to hospital but will just be getting symyptoms treated within the care home.
Given the projected death rate for over 80 yr olds is 10% the rates in care homes where many residents have poorer than average health for their age could be shocking. On Scottish news yesterday 6 residents in a Lanarkshire Care home tested positive.
On a personal level my 30 yr old son in Cambridge thinks he has it now. Mild version with cough and fatigue. My daughter thinks a colleague at work has it. My son's girlfriend's father who is being treated for cancer is waiting for test results.
As the UK government have decided not to bother with testing now and only doing it for hospital admissions (according to gp friend) how do people know if they have had it or not and wether they then have some immunity from it. For reference all last week I was ill and still not fully right now but would have no idea if it was covid or not.
They won't. Like conventional flu, the government will have methods to reliably estimate the extent of the virus in the population based on hospital testing, and hopefully will do random sampling here and there to check/confirm the degree of spread of active cases in the community.
As far as I am aware, there is currently no test for Covid-19 antibodies that will confirm if you've had it and are now recovered. So most people might know they've had a 'flu-like illness', but unless they need hospitalisation, it won't be confirmed as Covid 19.
But given that the flu season is starting to wane now, there is an increasing probability that any 'flu-like illness' from now on will be due to Covid 19. The degree to which that confers immunity from the virus is still debateable.